IPVEA Update - October 2012

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update IPVEA ConnECtIng mEmbErs to nEw oPPortunItIEs InternatIonal PhotovoltaIc equIPment assocIatIon

OCTOBER 2012

IPVEA cElEbrAtEs Its 5th AnnIVErsAry During EU PVSEC the association held a happy hour on its booth to celebrate its 5th year. Since 2008 IPVEA has made significant gains, including: Expanding its membership base (67 registered / 85 in roster) Collaborating with organizers of key PV events to provide members with better value and representation Delivering the 3rd PV Production Forum, which attracted over 200 delegates at EU PVSEC in Hamburg and 200 in Frankfurt Cementing media partnerships to help promote IPVEA to the wider PV industry and gain members preferential rates at PV conferences (Solarpraxis, PV-TECH, Solar PV, Future PV, Inter PV, PES, PV Magazine, Energy 2.0, Solar News)

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CLICK HERE TO VISIT SCHILLER AUTO WEBSITE & READ MORE ABOUT THE CLICK HERE TO VISIT SCHILLER AUTO Publisher: Bryan Ekus, IPVEA WEBSITE & READ MORE ABOUT THE Managing Editor: Sara Ver-Bruggen

Launching Energy Storage Journal, a new quarterly B2B publication.

IPVEA: Europe P.O. Box 1610, D-63406, Hanau, Germany

PV market outlook, energy storage and production technology covered in a day At the 3rd PV Production Forum 200 attendees gathered to understand the PV market, innovations in production technology and become more informed about energy storage. See full report on page 2 >>

Design: Darren Stacey, Doubletake Design Ltd

IPVEA: USA P.O. Box 771507, Orlando, Florida 32877 Tel: +1 407 856 9100 IPVEA: Asia Room 603, APEC Plaza, 49 Hoi Yuen Road, Kwun Tong, Hong Kong Tel: +852 2623 2317 Managing Director: Bryan Ekus ekus@ipvea.com Registration Number: Court Hanau VR 31714 Issued on behalf of the International Photovoltaic Equipment Association (IPVEA). IPVEA has used its best efforts to ensure that all the information in this publication is up-to-date. Any warranty to the correctness and actuality can not be assumed. IPVEA reserves the right to make changes or additions to the information made available at any time without notice. © 2012 International Photovoltaic Equipment Association. All rights reserved. Contents may not be reproduced by any means, in whole or part, without the prior written permission of the publisher. The opinions expressed in this publication are not necessarily those of IPVEA.


Photos Courtesy of 27th EU PVSEC in Frankfurt

2 | IPVEA UPDATE | OCTOBER 2012


PV PRODUCTION FORUM HIGHLIGHTS

PV ProductIon ForuM 2012 At the 3rd PV Production Forum 200 attendees gathered to understand the PV market, innovations in production technology and become more informed about energy storage. NPD Solarbuzz’s Finlay Colville Effective capacity waiting for a 40 GW-demand pull – today 30 kicked off the morning with a GW market 2013 outlook for PV industry Adding up production capacity is one suppliers. The key ‘take-aways’ way to measure the size of a market. from his presentation are: However, nameplate capacity that Supply and demand cycles will continue but won’t go on forever Historically in the PV industry demand has cycled on a quarterly basis, depending on when there are changes to feed-in tariffs (FIT), policies and deadlines and, until now, a consequence of the PV industry being so dependent on just a few markets. In future, regardless of the growth forecasts, there will be less of these strong quarterly cycles because more markets will drive demand so that actual demand will cycle at a faster rate than manufacturers will be able to turn production lines on and off. The simple fact that the demand profile is going to level out gives PV manufacturers more certainty, allowing them to plan more effectively.

puts cell and module capacity at the 60-70 GW level is misleading. Effective annualised capacity (EAC) is the key metric, as it takes out all the installed capacity that is not producing anything. The current EAC is around 40 GW, versus 30 GW of end market demand by the end of this year. This explains why even the market leaders are running lines at 60% utilisation. If end market demand is less than 40 GW then manufacturers will not add capacity.

Price, cost, gross margin impact While the talk has been of cost reduction measures or of wanting to move to high efficiency cells, and so on, polysilicon is now a much smaller proportion of PV production cost as prices have continued to fall, meaning

PV manufacturers have had to do little themselves to reduce costs. Gross margins (cash, cost and depreciation) are reducing, especially for the midstream (wafers and cells) segment of the PV industry. If polysilicon pricing stabilizes it will help to give the industry stability. Polysilicon

Pricing

- $/kg

60 LT

50

Spot 40 30 20 10 0 Q3'11

Q4'11

Q1'12

Q2'12

Q3'12

Q4'12

Q1'13

Q2'13

Q3'13

Source: NPD Solarbuzz

c-Si gaining market-share While new markets such as China are opening up, the demand by application is for cheap ground mounted panels where space is not a constraint, unlike the European rooftop market that has sustained much of the industry until now. Therefore, China is driving demand

IPVEA UPDATE | OCTOBER 2012 | 3


for low-cost multicrystalline silicon. The capacity upgrades for churning out higher efficiency cells is going in, but it takes manufacturers time to work out how to work out a low cost structure.

Multi on the rise – China Demand for multicrystalline silicon (<9N poly) as a PV substrate material is growing, at the expense of monocrystalline and >9N poly, and thin film PV materials. Even though thin film production capacity has been on the rise, multi c-Si production has grown more quickly.

High efficiency (HE) Gen 2 cell types slow to gain traction In terms of c-Si cell by capacity, in 2012 HE cell (Gen 2) capacity is only 15% of the market. The PV equipment segment is hardest hit because no one wants to place new orders, apart from upgrade and service orders. There is a lot of risk involved in adding HE capacity, it takes time to implement and the cost structures are not immediate when you add this type of capacity.

Equipment spending remains depressed PV equipment sales peaked at around $3 billion in 2011 and are now less than $1 billion. The low levels for equipment spending are not going to change in the near future. According to order intake figures, which have been below $1 billion in Q1 2012 and also in Q2 2012, this picture is unlikely to change this year. There is a risk that the scenario could continue in 2013 – there are a lot of developments that need to happen before manufacturers place significant orders and drive the market again. However, analysis of revenues recognised for 2012 show that c-Si equipment that has been unboxed and paid for is almost entirely dominated by HE processes and equipment. This is important because it means that manufacturers are going to, at some point, obsolete old capacity and buy new HE capacity. New Order Intake (US$ million) 4,000

3,000

Equipment Spending on c-Si Cell Lines

2,000

1,000

US$ million

1,500

0

Q1'11 Q2'11 Q3'11 Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12 Source: NPD Solarbuzz PV Equipment Quarterly, Sept 2012

1,000

Tier shakeout requires equipment supplier reset

500

The industry needs to get to a point where once the market starts to grow there are not 200 companies trying to satisfy it.

0 Q4'10

Standard

Q2'11

Q4'11

Standard Extra

Q2'12

HE Gen 1

Source: NPD Solarbuzz PV Equipment Quarterly, Sept 2012

Q4'12

HE Gen 2

Next, VLSI Research’s John West led a question and answer session with a PV equipment manufacturers’ panel that included Peter Tinner, Head of Sales & Marketing of Oerlikon Solar, Dieter Manz, CEO of Manz and Stefan Rinck, CEO of Singulus Technologies. The first question: ‘What equipment vendors can offer the industry to help it become profitable?’ raises interesting issues

4 | IPVEA UPDATE | OCTOBER 2012


PV PRODUCTION FORUM HIGHLIGHTS

Photo: Sara Ver-Bruggen

about the on-going role of the equipment segment in the PV industry. The easy years of selling equipment to a rapidly expanding production base have passed and in future there will only be room for the most committed companies. The PV industry is beginning to need solutions with potential to increase cell efficiencies cost effectively and ones that can reduce production costs and operational expenditure. ‘We have to work closely with manufacturers to help reach higher efficiencies and profitability,’ commented Rinck. Afterwards there was a panel session on energy storage: The next frontier in technology. This was moderated by Markus Hoehner, CEO, Hoehner Research & Consulting Group. Panellists included Frédéric Ridou, Sales Manager, Energy Storage Systems, Renewable Stationary Markets, Saft Batteries and Allen Lei, Senior Country Manager for Germany, BYD. Issues raised in the session will be explored in more depth in the second issue of Energy Storage Journal, due out in January 2013.

The morning wrapped up with a presentation on the advantages and model for group purchasing in the PV industry, given by Andreas Schöni, Managing Partner, Solar Purchasing Group Europe. The afternoon sessions of the PV Production Forum was devoted to PV production technology presentations. The programme of the day and presentations can be viewed and downloaded from: http://www.ipvea.org/pv-market-data/pvproduction-forum-2012.html

PV PRODUCTION FORUM 2012

3rd PV Production Forum is organised by IPVEA in partnership with Photovoltaics International / PV-Tech.org and EU PVSEC.

IPVEA UPDATE | OCTOBER 2012 | 5


IPVEA NEWS Highlights of IPVEA’s AGM During EU PVSEC IPVEA held its annual general meeting (AGM), open to all members. For those who did not make it, here are some of the key points:

New members In the 2012 register, five new companies have joined IPVEA: Intevac (Germany), Sentech Instruments (Germany), Despatch Industries (US), Plansee (Austria), Linde (Germany) and Beneq (Finland).

The changing market and long term opportunities To enable further growth, raise the profile of the association and strengthen its authority and ‘voice’ among the wider PV industry IPVEA has been working to identify short term problems and long term opportunities in the PV market place. Short term challenges include the impact of macro-economic conditions on slowing the PV market, the antidumping strategy against the Chinese and IPVEA’s position concerning this. Through surveys and discussions IPVEA is aware that most of its members are supplying, or plan to supply, new and emerging energy storage markets, in stationary storage and in e-mobility. There are several synergies. IPVEA member companies are responding to moves by some of their existing PV industry clients into the field of energy storage and are using know-how gained from developing production equipment and technology for PV manufacturing to enable mass production of components of batteries, fuel cells and other energy storage devices. There may also be existing distribution networks for the PV industry that can be leveraged for energy storage. In 2012/2013 IPVEA is taking decisive steps to become more involved in energy storage. At this year’s EU PVSEC the association made available 5000 copies of the first

6 | IPVEA UPDATE | OCTOBER 2012

issue of its new quarterly periodical Energy Storage Journal – business and market strategies for energy storage and smart grid technologies. ESJ is an independent publication that is funded by advertising revenue from several segments, including producers of energy storage components and products as well as suppliers of materials and equipment for energy storage production. The journal will explore the various challenges, including regulatory, policyrelated, technological, facing the industry. Each issue includes news, market forecasts and analysis of different energy storage technologies, and markets, guest editorials from industry experts and thought leaders, case studies on energy storage production technologies, an events diary and exclusive editorials on different energy storage applications. Working with Messe Düsseldorf, which is producing, with Solarpraxis, the Energy Storage Energy Storage - International Summit for the Storage of Renewable Energies, 18- 19 March 2013, IPVEA is assisting with organising the parallel event, Energy Storage Production Technology Forum.


INSIDE IPVEA

To further underscore IPVEA’s commitment to energy storage, EuPD Research founder Markus Hoehner gave a half hour workshop during the AGM on the current status of the PV market and the energy storage market, identifying batteries as the main opportunity for IPVEA members.

Most relevant to the PV industry is the implementation of battery-based energy storage.

Highlight’s from Markus Hoehner’s energy storage workshop presentation

Falling costs in PV modules, combined with lower electrical storage costs from batteries for the automotive industry are creating new opportunities for PV systems that incorporate a storage system component, ultimately reducing electricity costs by helping PV system owners reduce their dependence on buying electricity from the grid.

Collectively batteries are the most versatile of all energy storage technologies (including flywheels, capacitors, pumped hydro), in terms of power rating (10 kw up to 1 GW) and discharging duration (few seconds to several days).

As batteries are increasingly used for applications such as plug-in cars/e-mobility and stationary storage, costs of technologies such as lithium-ion will reduce in the coming years.

Over the rest of the decade a strong, but steady growth rate for batteries for energy storage is forecast. (Illustrate with Sample calculation of PV + Storage on slide 24, same as the one used on page 16 of the Energy Storage Journal) In view of the opportunities that lay ahead PV companies are allying with companies that supply batteries and energy management systems, which consist of batteries and control software and electronics, targeting PV system owners and planners.

Classification of energy storage technologies

After pumped hydro, batteries are the second most commonly used energy storage device, globally, including applications such as providing uninterruptible power supply (UPS), standby power and off-grid.

The addition of storage to PV systems will extend the value chain

This will provide many opportunities for PV equipment manufacturers to provide tools to the sector, including cell and battery manufacturing, battery integration and recycling.

Installed storage capacity by technology in MW

Energy storage will become an essential element of the smart grid, especially as more intermittent sources of renewable energy such as solar and wind come into use.

Many entry points for equipment manufacturers to provide tools to the sector

IPVEA UPDATE | OCTOBER 2012 | 7


IPVEA NEWS IPVEA board changes With the departure of Isra Vision’s Ludger Wahlers a new board position opened up. The two candidates, Enis Ersü (Isra Vision) and Frank Tinnefeld (Schmid Group), were announced in previous issues of Update. During the AGM Frank Tinnefeld the majority of votes were cast in favour of Frank Tinnefeld and IPVEA would like to take this opportunity to welcome Frank to the board.

taking place in emerging PV markets such as such as Brazil and India.

Member survey IPVEA has recently sent all members a survey to confirm the major PV tradeshows in each continent, in 2013, to be supported and gauge demand for more cost-effective pavilion-style booths.

The changes to the IPVEA board also opened up positions on the association’s supervisory board. During the AGM, three volunteers for the supervisory board were agreed. They are: Dr Klaus Eberhardt, M+W Germany Dr Dirk Hanusch, Isra Vision Richard Moreth, Vitronic And during the show, news arrived that board secretary Ortrun Aßländer (ACI Ecotec) had a baby boy. IPVEA would like to extend heartfelt congratulations to Ortrun and wish her and her family all the best.

Events 2013 During SNEC 2012 IPVEA organised its first press conference for members to promote their new production solutions to the Chinese market. In the AGM it was broadly agreed how IPVEA could improve the press conference for SNEC 2013, to help ensure better attendance among the Chinese press. Suggestions included Chinese translations of presentations and press materials and with a longer lead time on promoting the press conference. Inevitably discussions turned to which major PV exhibitions IPVEA should support in 2013 – EU PVSEC or Intersolar – and whether IPVEA can use its influence to ensure that the timing of key shows in adjacent industries, including solar, semiconductor and energy storage do not clash in 2013. As well as being served some very good coffee and hospitality member company representatives and visitors that visited IPVEA’s booth at EU PVSEC may also have seen that several of IPVEA’s members opted to sponsor a ‘pod’ on the booth. In 2013, IPVEA will propose these pavilion-type IPVEA booths as a more economical approach to trade shows, particularly for exhibitions

8 | IPVEA UPDATE | OCTOBER 2012

Linde, one of the IPVEA member companies that opted to sponsor a ‘pod’ on the association’s pavilion booth at EU PVSEC, had this to say:

‘Sponsoring a pod on the IPVEA booth provided us with a good, central information point for customers, with the added value of excellent refreshment and meeting facilities.’ The planning and design team were both efficient and responsive and the finished result was exactly as the specifications described.’


EnErgyStorageJournal Energy Storage Journal (business and market strategies for energy storage and smart grid technologies) is a new quarterly B2B publication that covers global news, trends and developments in energy storage and smart grid markets. Worldwide growth in renewable energy generation capacity, electricity-powered transportation and fastgrowing cities in developing economies will drive exponential growth in energy storage and smart grid technologies, products and applications in the coming years. ESJ is a key source of information to enable your business or organisation to keep track of these dynamic industries and the multitude of new opportunities they present. The inaugural issue of ESJ will be launched at 27th EU PVSEC, in Frankfurt, with a print run of 5000 copies made available at the show.

target readerShip Renewables energy industry (executives from solar

Each issuE includEs Global news round-up Exclusive in depth features on new and promising energy storage applications and technologies

Case studies of advances in energy storage production to bring high performance, costeffective energy storage products to market

Analysis and forecasts on different energy storage markets and technologies from leading consultants and experts in the field

Examination of policy around the world that is enabling investment and growth in energy storage and smart grid technologies

Updated events calendar

www.energystoragejournal.com

PV, CSP, wind, biomass etc.)

Energy utilities and grid owners Distributed network operators

High performance and advanced battery manufacturers (lead acid, lithium, ion flow, ZEBRA etc)

Fuel cell and electrolyzer producers Suppliers of flywheel, thermal and other storage technologies and systems

Suppliers of energy storage management and control systems

Automotive manufacturers Producers of equipment and materials used for energy storage production

Policy makers and shapers Universities and research institutes Consultants and analysts Venture capitalists and other investors Associations and alliances representing energy storage, renewables & conventional energy sectors

To discuss how your organisation can work with EnErgyStorageJournal contact the Publisher and Managing Director Bryan Ekus by email: ekus@ipvea.com


IPVEA MEMbErs IPVEA mEmbEr ComPAnIEs 3s Modultec 3s Photovoltaics 3-s swiss solar systems AG Abb Automation Gmbh AEG Power solutions Gmbh AIs Automation dresden Gmbh AMb Apparate + Maschinenbau Gmbh Applied Materials Asys Automatisierungssysteme Gmbh bosch rexroth Mechatronics Gmbh btu International, Inc. buerkle Gmbh ch2M hill day4 Eco-tec decker Anlagenbau Gmbh dek solar Gmbh despatch Industries diamond Materials tech, Inc dr. schenk Gmbh Industriemesstechnik dr. schwab Inspection technology Gmbh E+h Metrology Gmbh Ferrotec Gmbh GfE Metalle und Materialien Gmbh Grenzebach Maschinenbau Gmbh heateflex corporation hennecke systems Gmbh hermann otto Gmbh Icos Vision systems InA lineartechnik Innolas Gmbh IntEVAc IsrA VIsIon AG Jonas & redmann Photovoltaic’s Production solutions Gmbh Kitec microelectronic technologie Gmbh KlA-tencor Komax solar AG Kuka systems corporation north America Kuka systems Gmbh laytec Gmbh leybold optics Gmbh linde AG lohmann Gmbh & co. KG lotus systems Gmbh lpkf solarQuipment Gmbh lsW Maschinenfabrik Gmbh

10 | IPVEA UPDATE | OCTOBER 2012

M+W Germany Gmbh Manz AG Meier solar solutions Gmbh Meyer burger services / Meyer burger AG Meyer burger AG – swiss slicing systems Meyer burger Automation Gmbh Meyer burger robotics / Meyer burger Wafertec newport spectra - Physics Gmbh oc oerlikon Management AG, Pfaffikon oerlikon leybold Vacuum Gmbh oerlikon solar / oerlikon systems ortner c.l.s. Gmbh otb solar b.V. Pall Gmbh PAsAn sA Plansee sE reis Gmbh & co. KG Maschinenfabrik rEnA Gmbh rIcMAr technology Gmbh robert burkle Gmbh rofin baasel lasertech Gmbh & co. KG roth & rau – ortner Gmbh / roth & rau AG roth & rau Italy s.r.l. schaeffler technologies Gmbh schIllEr AutoMAtIon Gmbh & co. KG schmid Gmbh + co., Gebr. sEMIlAb semiconductor Physics laboratory, co., ltd. sEntEch Instruments Gmbh sierra therm Production Furnaces sika AG sInGulus stAnGl solAr Gmbh sls solar line saxony Gmbh smit ovens b.V. soleras ltd somont Gmbh stEIn Automation Gmbh & co. KG synoVA s.A. targray technology International Inc. team technik Maschinen und Anlagen Gmbh tecnofimes s.r.l tempress systems b.V. truMPF laser- und systemtechnik Gmbh + co. KG Veeco Instruments Gmbh VItronIc dr.-Ing. stein bildverarbeitungssysteme Gmbh Von ArdEnnE Anlagentechnik Gmbh


EU PVSEC 2012

A VIEW FroM thE shoW the 27th Eu PVsEc was held at the Messe Frankfurt, in Germany, from 24-28 september. The EU PVSEC hosted the global PV community on the Messe Frankfurt fairground (Conference 24 to 28 September 2012 – Exhibition 25 to 28 September 2012). The executive committee of the EU PVSEC welcomed professionals from the entire PV value chain in the financial and business hub Frankfurt in Germany. The exhibition featured 656 xxhibitors and 31,500 visitors from 102 countries. A total number of 1600 presentations were given at the conference which welcomed 4,024 delegates from 76 countries. IPVEA’s booth at the show was designed to provide a platform for its members, and as such it featured a member’s lounge for meetings and discussions as well as an exhibition area containing member ‘pods’. The pods were taken by Linde, Oerlikon, Dr Schenk and Leybold Optics.

Photos ourtsey of Doubletake Design Ltd

IPVEA UPDATE | OCTOBER 2012 | 11


KEY EVENTS

All photos courtesy of 27th EU PVSEC in Frankfurt

12 | IPVEA UPDATE | OCTOBER 2012


IPVEA UPDATE | OCTOBER 2012 | 13


Photos (above) courtesy of 27th EU PVSEC in Frankfurt; photos (below) courtesy of Doubletake Design Ltd

14 | IPVEA UPDATE | OCTOBER 2012


EVENTS

KEy EVEnts 30–31 October 2012 Shanghai, China

28–29 November 2012 Phoenix, Arizona

PV modulE And PV PowEr PlAnt workshoP - ChInA 2012

4th PV PowEr PlAnts ConfErEnCE – usA 2012

Conditions for the PV industry are changing rapidly, worldwide. The drastic decline in module prices and intense level of competition are accelerating the market’s development.

The 4th PV Power Plants conference, organized by

Reductions in production costs, successful innovation and all-round quality assurance are, increasingly, key factors for commercial success.

conference sessions providing in-depth technology driven

Solarpraxis invites you to find out about new technological developments at the first ‘PV Module and PV Power Plant Workshop, China 2012’, which is a collaboration with TÜV Rheinland. The first day addresses issues facing module technology (coverings, metallization and encapsulation), test methods and measurement techniques. Day two will focus on quality assurance, testing and certification of PV modules. Cases of actual damage and related basic issues will be dealt with during the event, as will new trends in quality assurance and aspects of testing and certification. The conference will be held in English and Chinese (simultaneous interpretation available). IPVEA members will benefit from a 10% discount on the attendance fee. Contact David Gaden for more information (davidgaden@solarpraxis.de +49 (0) 30/72 62 96 373)

15 November 2012 The Imperia, 1714 Easton Avenue, New Jersey, US

9th PV brIEfIng & nEtworkIng forum Joint Forces for Solar is partnering with the Mid-Atlantic Solar Industries Association (MESIA) and the New York Solar Energy Society (NYSES) to provide a day filled with the latest solar facts and figures as well as technological innovation. Ample networking opportunities with local solar installation companies, association representatives and fellow industry players. Prices: Early Bird, before 31 October $100 Normal Price, $150 Register at: www.regonline.com/new_jersey

Solarpraxis, will encompass a new element called “ZEROING IN ON TECHNOLOGY”. This element will bring you additional topics, which had been introduced and well received at the recent Solarpraxis Inverter and PV System Technology conference hosted in San Francisco. System costs, technology and the long term durability and quality of materials are pressing issues in a rapidly changing market. Developers who obtain and implement high quality and bankable products will continue to be at the forefront of the market. IPVEA members will benefit from a 10% discount on the attendance fee and should contact David Gaden for more information (email davidgaden@solarpraxis.de +49 (0) 30/72 62 96 373)

22-23 November 2012 Maritim proArte Hotel in Berlin

13th forum solArPrAxIs

IPVEA member discounts still available There is still time for IPVEA members to secure a discount to attend the 13th Forum Solarpraxis, Europe’s leading solar industry conference. The event will bring industry players into contact with representatives from politics, the financial world, the press and the industry’s suppliers. ParticiPatiON FeeS: For IPVEA members the following price offers are available, based on attending both days and includes: conference documentation, coffee breaks with snacks, two buffet lunches, buffet dinner on Thursday evening, 22 November: After 1 September 2012: €795.00 (standard €945.00) After 9 November 2012: €945.00 (standard €1095.00) IPVEA UPDATE | OCTOBER 2012 | 15


PlAtform communIty

production mass manufacture residential

EquIPmEnt commercial

nEtWOrK

management batteries rear side off grid

analysis industrial

solar automation

Knowledge

IPVEA high efficiency

PV VAluE

organic

renewables

chAIn thin film silicon

EnErgy EffIcIEncy

partner

communicate

smart grid

laser

robotics

metal wrap thru

upgrade

fuel cells

storAgEvoice

support conversion

PVMATRIX ARE YOU IN?


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