East Africa RIG Dorothy Maseke, CMIRM, Chair On the 12th of March, 2020, Kenya became the 11th country in Sub Saharan Africa to confirm its first case of coronavirus. The Government’s response was swift and in a matter of days all public and social gatherings were banned, in-bound travel from high-risk countries was restricted, schools were closed, and within two weeks of the first case being reported, a dusk to dawn curfew was imposed. Shortly thereafter, movement restrictions into and out of high-risk counties, including the capital city, Nairobi, were imposed as measures to contain the spread of the virus. The Government’s response has indeed yielded some fruit, and 55 days after the Coronavirus outbreak was declared a pandemic, Kenya has had 490 confirmed cases, 24 deaths and 173 recoveries. However, the government still faces the challenge of compliance; not all are taking the government directives seriously. Such behaviours could jettison the government’s immediate response which was to delay the spread of the pandemic while giving it time to strengthen its healthcare systems. Like in many countries, the social distancing directives have also been costly to the economy at large, affecting production and demand across most sectors of the economy. The World Bank, in its latest reports, projects that Kenya’s GDP will decelerate in 2020 with the economic growth projections remaining highly uncertain at the moment. The report predicts a growth of 1.5% in 2020 in the baseline scenarios with a potential downside scenario of contraction to 1.0 % if Covid-19 related disruptions persist. The Central Bank of Kenya also expects GDP growth to contract significantly, revising its estimate for 2020 from the initial 6.2% to 3.4%. Aside from the Covid-19 threat, the horn of Africa is facing an extremely alarming and unprecedented threat to food security and livelihood due to the major locust invasion because it coincides with the early beginning of the long rains and the current growing season. The full impact of the locust invasion to the economy, yet to be fully confirmed and quantified, will only be appreciated at the next harvesting cycle. The effects of the pandemic are not monomorphous. The horticulture and floriculture sector is severely affected due to limited flights and reduced demand in major markets in Europe and Asia. Conversely, the vegetable and fruit exporters are experiencing a surge in demand due to harvesting disruptions in markets in Asia and the Middle East, but they are unable to meet this demand due to the decreased air freight which continues to be a constraint. Horticulture, floriculture, tourism and hospitality are major foreign exchangeearners and these sectors will continue to bear the brunt of this pandemic into the foreseeable future. Sadly, the most affected are the poorest and most vulnerable households. The government has to strike a balance between delaying the virus spread through the enforcement of restrictions while at the same time protecting the vulnerable populations, many of whom rely on small scale agriculture in the rural areas or work within the informal or “jua kali” sector in the urban setting. The informal sector employs over 80% of the Kenyan working population. The numbers reported so far are still relatively low compared to those in the developed world– an indicator that we might be suppressing the curve so far. While the outcome is far better than has been predicted by the various models run by experts, it remains difficult to predict the eventual outcome. What is for sure is that we have been disrupted. Is it all doom and gloom for Kenya? Certainly not! Although Covid-19 brings with it many challenges, it brings with it many new opportunities. Kenya boasts of being Africa’s Silicon Savannah, referring to its vibrant tech ecosystem. With a mobile penetration rate of 91% (compared with Africa’s 80% mobile penetration), internet penetration of 84%, a supporting ICT policy environment and the leading mobile based fintech platform on the continent, M-pesa, it is not a wonder that technology is playing a key role in ensuring resilience in this post-Covid era.
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