A Divisive Peace

Deep disagreements and lack of mutual trust on key issues are clouding hopes for a lasting deal

By SAW YAN NAING / CHIANG MAI

Myanmar is enjoying a period of praise and support from the international community, even receiving millions of dollars in aid and investment for its reforms. At the heart of all this adulation is the peace process, the best-selling element in the nation’s transition.

Several European countries, the United States, Japan and China are getting involved in or closely watching the ongoing peace negotiations between the government and ethnic armed groups, who are attempting to reach a nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA).

However, deep disagreements and divisions are emerging among ethnic rebels.

Although ethnic pro-government leaders want to sign the NCA quickly, some who doubt the peace process advise moving cautiously. The Karen National Union (KNU), Myanmar’s longest-surviving ethnic rebel group, is a major proponent for signing the NCA as quickly as possible.

In late August, the KNU suspended its participation with an alliance of 12 ethnic armed groups—the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC)— at a congress in the northern Thai city of Chiang Mai, raising concerns that the KNU would go solo on the NCA.

The KNU maintained that it wouldn’t sign the NCA alone but, rather, would work with the Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT), a working committee of 16 ethnic armed groups, to negotiate the terms of the NCA instead of working with the UNFC.

“The KNU doesn’t intend to sign a separate nationwide ceasefire accord with the government,” said KNU Chairman Saw Mutu Say Poe, in a statement.

“The NCCT will continue to negotiate the terms of the NCA, and when ethnic armed organizations are ready to sign the NCA, then we will move forward together,” he added.

Observers said that the KNU might be focusing on NCCT work to sideline the role of the UNFC, which the KNU regards as bloc-controlled and ineffective at decision-making.

Some Karen leaders who asked for anonymity said the KNU is not satisfied with the UNFC’s leadership because it is dominated by Kachin and

Mon rebels, who are historic enemies of the Karen.

Also present in the minds of KNU leaders are painful memories of the Kachin and Mon groups signing bilateral ceasefire accords with the government in the mid-1990s, leaving the Karen to bear the brunt of the government’s large-scale military offensives. At the time, the Kachin Independence Organization and the New Mon State Party were accused of signing the accords to benefit from lucrative business deals.

The KNU has faced similar accusations since agreeing to its own bilateral ceasefire in 2012, one year after the Kachin Independence Army entered into renewed conflict with the government. While maintaining growing relations with the government, the KNU leaders received privileged chances to meet President U Thein Sein and the government army chief, Snr.-Gen. Min Aung Hlaing and other high-ranking officials in Naypyitaw.

KNU leaders who want to approach the peace-making program cautiously said that a pro-government faction led by KNU Chairman Saw Mutu Say Poe dominates the KNU leadership. This faction, they say, is not transparent about its meetings with government officials.

They don’t inform colleagues about their trips to Naypyitaw, Yangon, and other cities, nor do they brief them properly on discussions with government officials, weakening unity among the KNU leadership and creating conflicts. Commenting on KNU perceptions of the UNFC, Nai Hong Sar, UNFC vice chairman, said,

“We have been practicing our policy for three years. The KNU never criticized it in the past. But now they are starting to criticize us and ask for totally new policies. So, they might have their own opinions.”

When asked if the KNU aims to sideline the UNFC and promote the NCCT’s role in the peace-making process, Nai Hong Sar did not refute it.

“That might be the case. But, it is not good to disclose [details] about it,” he said.

Meanwhile, at the UNFC-held congress, the Myanmar government including President U Thein Sein and Snr.-Gen. Min Aung Hlaing met on Aug. 25 with militarily strong ethnic rebels—the United Wa State Army (UWSA), the Shan State Progressive Party (SSPP), and ethnic Mongla rebels—in Naypyitaw, raising concerns that Naypyitaw is trying to catch the ‘big fishes’ of the UWSA, SSPP, and KNU to sign the ceasefire first, only later to open the door to the other ethnic groups, including other UNFC members.

According to sources who work closely with ethnic rebels, the ethnic and opposition armed groups that are likely to sign the NCA include the UWSA, the Restoration Council of Shan State, the National Democratic Alliance Army—also known as Mongla—the All Burma Students’ Democratic

Front, and probably the KNU. The government’s key peace negotiator, Minister Aung Min, is tipped to reach agreements this October.

Instead of addressing the political demands of ethnic rebels, the government appears to be moving forward with development and economic projects that it believes will put an end to the political interests of the ethnic minorities.

That approach has gained support from the international community as it buys into the idea that development and economic projects might push reforms more quickly and effectively than rehashing politics.

After spending millions of dollars in supporting exiled Myanmar dissident organizations, international donors are now channeling financial support to governmental bodies or governmentassociated organizations that promote peace and development.

Most financial support for peace and peace-related programs such as development, health, and education projects, go to the Yangonbased Myanmar Peace Center, the government-affiliated organization that has essentially become a government think tank. This body assists the government in dealing with not only ethnic rebels, but also foreign affairs.

During the meeting between President U Thein Sein and the ethnic rebels in Naypyitaw on Aug. 25, topics for discussion included development programs for education, health care, and rehabilitation work in ethnic areas.

Sources close to the government said that President U Thein Sein’s administration wants to secure the NCA before the end of his term. This, surely, is to enshrine the NCA as his legacy, as well as to move on economic and development projects in ethnic regions rather than working out political settlements.

“[The government] might have hidden ideas in mind,” said Nai Hong Sar. “But, they are also trying to include all [ethnic rebels] to reach the nationwide ceasefire agreement. We can only call it a nationwide ceasefire agreement when all ethnic armed groups sign the agreement.”