THEPOWERSTRUGGLETHROWING SUDANINTOTURMOIL

By Raya Gupta '25

Note: this article was last updated on May 22 2023 and the situation is likely to change by the time of publication

On April 15th fighting erupted between the Sudanese Armed Forces and their Rapid Support Forces, turning the streets of Khartoum into a battlefield The Sudanese people and the world were caught unawares, shocked at the quick escalation and tremendous destruction. As of May 9th over 500 people have been killed, 334 000 civilians are internally displaced and 100 000 refugees have fled to neighboring countries But the numbers are still rising and people continue to live and die in desperate circumstances.

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and Sudanese Armed Forces were previously allies, having seized power together in a coup d’etat in 2021 and collaborated to form a transitional government with army General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan taking over as de facto ruler and the RSF leader, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, commonly known as Hemedti, acting as second in command. While violence was not completely abated in the transitional period, Khartoum was generally spared from conflict which was ongoing in the Darfur region and other areas of the country. The military coup dismantled civilian institutions and overturned pieces of the power-sharing arrangement that had come in place after former president Omar al-Bashir’s defeat in a popular movement. However, in December 2022, military and civilian political actors signed a framework agreement to relaunch the political process for Sudan’s transition to a civilian government Unfortunately, the current events have counteracted this progress.

But how did al-Burhan and Hemedti go from leaders of a country looking forward to a democratic future to the epitome of power hungry and corrupt officials with no regard for human life, bombing populated areas and using their own civilians as human shields? There is no doubt that the current conflict is a power struggle. It is the general consensus that tensions increased between the two groups after a proposed integration of the RSF into the military largely because of a lack of clarity on who would be the interim leader. But even before that Hemedti had begun allying himself with other Sudanese factions; looking to cement his position and build upon it to even greater power

The RSF itself evolved from militias responsible for war crimes in the Darfur region of Sudan where they had been responsible for putting down a rebellion The counterinsurgency strategy resulted in tremendous death, destruction, and displacement. Since 2003, hundreds of thousands of civilians have been killed and affected by conflict-induced starvation, dehydration, and disease; hundreds of villages have been destroyed; countless livelihoods have been ruined; and rape and other sexual violence against women and girls has been widespread. In 2016, Amnesty International even documented how government forces used chemical weapons against civilians in the Jebel Mara region of Darfur

The popular uprising in 2021 raised hopes that Sudan and its population of 46 million could emerge from decades of autocracy, internal conflict and economic isolation. But the current conflict has knocked the country off-kilter and hurled any hope for democracy into the far future It also threatens to further destabilize the already volatile region along the Red Sea, Horn of Africa and Sahel as well as play into the competition for influence in the area between the USA and Russia, and other regional actors Furthermore, the World Food Program has warned that, due to the conflict exacerbating an already dire situation, between 2 and 2 5 million more people are projected to face acute hunger in Sudan, bringing the levels to a record high of 40% of the population affected Despite the difficult security circumstances and the death of United Nations humanitarian workers, the World Food Program – after a short pause in operations –has managed to provide assistance to over 35,000 people and aims to support 4.9 million.The 40,000 returnees of South Sudan and 73,000 refugees arriving in Egypt will also need assistance from the cash-strapped organization

Before the crisis, Sudan already had 3.7 million internally displaced persons in the country, in addition to hosting over 1 million refugees Many more have fled as a result of the violence, but it is the civilians remaining in Khartoum and other areas of conflict that are bearing the brunt of the power struggle.

Attacks against journalists, international and local aid workers and human rights defenders have contributed to an information blackout, but the information trickling out is extremely disturbing Densely populated residential areas of Khartoum, Bahri, Omdurman and towns in Darfur and North Kordofan are facing electricity cuts, and a lack of healthcare, basic services, food, and water. Essential civilian infrastructure has been attacked, including 11 hospitals which have been destroyed at the time the Sudanese people need them most. Any medical facility in Khartoum has been either destroyed or occupied by armed forces, leaving civilians not only trapped in conflict zones, but trapped with no hope of essential medical care Looting has also become a pervasive problem It is clear that a ceasefire is absolutely necessary to ensure the future of Sudan and the current safety of its civilians. Negotiations are underway in Saudi Arabia, but previous efforts have thus far produced ceasefires in name only and vague declarations that do nothing to hasten real peace. There is no sign that the conflict is slowing; recently al-Burhan ordered the freeze on accounts linked to RSF, replacing Sudan’s Central Bank governor over the weekend of May 13-14

Sudan’s future is uncertain. The violence is presently contained within Khartoum and a few other conflict zones, but there are many gun holders, with arms and allegiances remaining from participation in previous conflicts, that could decide to take sides. The result? A full-blown civil war.

The conflict seems to be fracturing already, with armed gangs causing great destruction and ethnic undertones beginning to lend more chaos to violence. The devastation already seen is enough; the people of Sudan deserve a government that can provide security and prosperity, and the world must stand by them in this time of crisis. A ceasefire and resolution must be sought for the benefit of the Sudanese people, not for the necessity of shuttling foreign nationals out of the country as the accusation leveled against the United States of America reads There has been new hope for a 7 day ceasefire after an agreement brokered in Jeddah with Saudi Arabia and US involvement, but previous agreements have broken down all too quickly to provide any relief to Sudan’s suffering populace The world must do everything it can to usher in peace, but in the end it is the leaders on either side of this conflict that must stop mutilating Sudan and murdering their people for so low a prize as power.