TM
JULY 2021
Q2 UPDATE
SOUTH FLORIDA’S REAL ESTATE IS NOW OFFICIALLY IN SUPER-BOOM MODE! FEBRUARY 2021
MLS Resales
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES LISTINGS UP CONDOS LISTINGS DOWN
MLS Single Family Homes
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES Total Active Listings Analysis in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties. TOTAL SINGLE FAMILY HOMES TOTAL ACTIVE LISTINGS
9,000
8,597
8,500
8,000
7,500
6,819
7,000
6,149
6,500
SOURCE: MLS
6,000
5,500
2020 Q4
2021 Q1
2021 Q2
MLS Condos
CONDO Total Active Listings Analysis in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties. CONDO ACTIVE LISTINGS
20,000
19,988
19,000
17,249
18,000
17,000
16,000
12,382
14,000
13,000
12,000
2020 Q4
2021 Q1
2021 Q2
SOURCE: MLS
ALL TIME RECORD LOW
15,000
NEW TRANSACTION ANALYSIS For Single Family Homes vs. Condos in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties SINGLE FAMILY HOMES CONDOS
70%
60%
60% 60%
50%
50% 50%
40%
40%
40%
30%
20%
SOURCE: MLS
10%
0%
2020 Q4
2021 Q1
2021 Q2
WHAT IS THE REAL ESTATE RULE OF THUMB?
10% OR MORE OF INVENTORY =
BUYER’S MARKET
10% OR LESS OF INVENTORY =
SELLER’S MARKET
CONDO MLS Resale Market Snapshot Total new construction condo units delivered in Brickell, Biscayne Corridor (Edgewater, Wynwood, Midtown, Design District, Omni), Downtown Miami, The Beaches (South Beach, Miami Beach, Surfside, Bal Harbour, Bay Harbor Islands, Sunny Isles Beach, Hallandale Beach, Hollywood Beach), Aventura, North Miami Beach, Coconut Grove and Key Biscayne since 2012.
2020 - Q4 *TOTAL UNITS DELIVERED
2021 - Q1
2021 - Q2
% ACTIVE
TOTAL ACTIVE MLS LISTINGS
% ACTIVE
TOTAL ACTIVE MLS LISTINGS
% ACTIVE
(2012-2021)
TOTAL ACTIVE MLS LISTINGS
681
55
8%
48
7%
28
4%
FORT LAUDERDALE
1,265
132
10%
93
7%
67
5%
BRICKELL
5,522
688
12%
618
11%
455
8%
848
102
12%
98
12%
76
9%
5,332
674
13%
608
11%
565
11%
MIAMI BEACH
640
190
30%
122
19%
70
11%
AVENTURA / NORTH MIAMI BEACH
1,442
322
22%
219
15%
167
12%
SUNNY ISLES BEACH
2,118
366
17%
301
14%
256
12%
HALLANDALE/HOLLYWOOD BEACH
539
211
39%
188
35%
130
24%
18,387
2,740
15%
2,295
12%
1,814
10%
COCONUT GROVE / KEY BISCAYNE
BAL HARBOUR/SURFSIDE/BAY HARBOR ISLAND DOWNTOWN MIAMI / EDGEWATER
TOTALS
B
U
Y
E
R
* UNDER CONSTRUCTION/PRE-CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS NOT INCLUDED, ONLY THOSE WITH CERTIFICATE OF OCCUPANCY.
SOURCE: MLS
'
S
M
A
R
K
E
T
MLS Sales Profile for 2021
3% COCONUT GROVE/KEY BISCAYNE
6% AVENTURA / NORTH MIAMI 7% DOWNTOWN MIAMI
39% BRICKELL
9% THE BEACHES (MIAMI BEACH - SUNNY ISLES)
13% FORT LAUDERDALE
1 OUT OF EVERY 3 CONDO SALES IS IN BRICKELL
SOURCE: MLS
23% EDGEWATER
NEW CONDO RESALES New condos built since 2012 from Coconut Grove - East Fort Lauderdale.
JAN-JUNE 161% OF SALES IN 2020
1,218
1,400
1,000
873 755
800
SOURCE: MLS
NEW TRANSACTIONS
1,200
600
JAN - JUNE
2019
JAN - JUNE
2020
JAN - JUNE
2021
AT CURRENT SALES PACE, NEW CONDO RESALES ARE PROJECTED TO TRIPLE 2020 BY Q4 2021.
NEW CONSTRUCTION (PREVIOUS CYCLE 2012 - 2020)
NEW CONSTRUCTION Condo Summary COCONUT GROVE TO FORT LAUDERDALE, TRADITIONAL NEW CONDOS EAST OF I-95 TRADITIONAL CONDOS ARE DEFINED AS CONDOS WITH NO SHORT-TERM RENTALS
REMAINING DEVELOPER INVENTORY SOLD DEVELOPER UNITS
96% SOLD
AS OF JULY 2021
19,465 TOTAL UNITS RELEASED SINCE 2012-2020
18,584 TOTAL SOLD UNITS
881 REMAINING DEVELOPER INVENTORY
SOURCE: MIAMI-DADE & BROWARD COUNTY TAX RECORDS AND DEVELOPER ONSITE SALES OFFICE
Macro Future Deliveries for Traditional Condos Released for sale 2012 -2020 COCONUT GROVE TO EAST FORT LAUDERDALE TOTAL CONDOS DELIVERED BY DECADE
7
ELYSEE GROVE ARBOR
6
57TH OCEAN MONACO YACHT CLUB & RESIDENCES THE ESTATES AT ACQUALINA
5
SOUTH TOWER 2000 OCEAN FOUR SEASONS
4
ASTON MARTIN
PRIVATE RESIDENCES
MISSONI BAIA THE ESTATES AT ACQUALINA NORTH
3
TOWER AURORA
2
MR. C RESIDENCES*
2021
2022
2023
UNA RESIDENCES*
2024
2025
*PROJECTED
1
A NEW CYCLE BEGINS BRICKELL
DOWNTOWN MIAMI
EDGEWATER
SUNNY ISLES
TRADITIONAL CONDOS (NO SHORT TERM RENTALS)
A NEW CYCLE BEGINS
O 1 5
DOWNTOWN MIAMI
FIRST
RESIDENCES
DOWNTOWN MIAMI
DOWNTOWN MIAMI
SHORT TERM RENTALS
DOWNTOWN MIAMI
DOWNTOWN MIAMI
SOURCE: MIAMI-DADE & BROWARD COUNTY TAX RECORDS AND DEVELOPER ONSITE SALES OFFICE
30 Year Condo Delivery Analysis for Traditional Condos East of I-95 TOTAL CONDOS DELIVERED BY DECADE
6
60,000
5
50,000
4
40,000
3
30,000
2
20,000
1
10,000
58,953
18,175
2,505 2001-2010
2011-2020
2021-2030
(PREVIOUS DECADE)
(LAST DECADE)
(CURRENT DECADE)
*PROJECTED
0
TAKEAWAYS
1.
SUPPLY SHOCK
2.
DECLINING DEVELOPER & RESALE INVENTORY
3.
A NEW CYCLE BEGINS
TM
JULY 2021 Q2 UPDATE