OCT 2021
Q3 UPDATE
REAL ESTATE EXPERTS SAY A MARKET CORRECTION IS COMING TO SOUTH FLORIDA SEPTEMBER 2021
Single Family Homes and Condos MLS Residential Snapshot
TOTAL ACTIVE LISTINGS Analysis for Single Family Homes and Condos in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties TOTAL ACTIVE LISTINGS
34,811 35,000
25,846 30,000
25,000
19,201
18,686
20,000
15,000
10,000
SOURCE: MLS
5,000
0
Q4-2020
Q1-2021
Q2-2021
Q3-2021
MLS RESALES VS. MLS LISTING RATIO for Single Family Homes and Condos in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties NEW MLS RESALES NEW MLS LISTINGS
10
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
5
4
3
3
1 SOURCE: MLS
2
2
1
0
Q4-2020
Q1-2021
Q2-2021
MLS RESALES VS. MLS LISTING RATIO for Single Family Homes and Condos in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties NEW MLS RESALES NEW MLS LISTINGS
10
9
9
8
8
7
EQUILIBRIUM
7
6
5
5
5
4
3
3
1 SOURCE: MLS
2
2
1
0
Q4-2020
Q1-2021
Q2-2021
Q3-2021
QUARTERLY RESALE ABSORPTION for Single Family Homes and Condos in MiamiDade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties. TOTAL QUARTERLY RESALE ABSORPTION
38,930 40,000
35,000
29,837
29,992
Q1-2021
Q2-2021
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
SOURCE: MLS
5,000
0
Q4-2020
QUARTERLY RESALE ABSORPTION for Single Family Homes and Condos in MiamiDade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties. TOTAL QUARTERLY RESALE ABSORPTION
38,930 40,000
35,000
29,837
29,992
30,000
25,000
20,000
14,868 15,000
10,000
SOURCE: MLS
5,000
0
Q4-2020
Q1-2021
Q2-2021
Q3-2021
New Construction (PREVIOUS CYCLE 2012 - 2020)
NEW CONSTRUCTION Condo Summary COCONUT GROVE TO FORT LAUDERDALE, TRADITIONAL NEW CONDOS EAST OF I-95 TRADITIONAL CONDOS ARE DEFINED AS CONDOS WITH NO SHORT-TERM RENTALS
REMAINING DEVELOPER INVENTORY SOLD DEVELOPER UNITS
97%
SOLD AS OF SEPTEMBER 2021
19,465 TOTAL UNITS RELEASED SINCE 2012-2020
18,835 TOTAL SOLD UNITS
631 REMAINING DEVELOPER INVENTORY
SOURCE: MIAMI-DADE & BROWARD COUNTY TAX RECORDS AND DEVELOPER ONSITE SALES OFFICE
Macro Future Deliveries for Traditional Condos Released for sale 2012 - 2020 COCONUT GROVE TO EAST FORT LAUDERDALE TOTAL CONDOS DELIVERED BY DECADE
ELYSEE
7
GROVE ARBOR 57TH OCEAN - SOLD OUT
6
MONACO YACHT CLUB & RESIDENCES THE ESTATES AT ACQUALINA SOUTH TOWER - SOLD OUT 2000 OCEAN
5
FOUR SEASONS PRIVATE RESIDENCES
ASTON MARTIN
4
MISSONI BAIA THE ESTATES AT ACQUALINA NORTH TOWER
3
AURORA
2
# OF BUILDINGS TO BE DELIVERED
MR. C RESIDENCES*
UNA RESIDENCES*
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
7
4
1
0
1
*PROJECTED
1
CONDO MLS Resale Market Snapshot Total new construction condo units delivered in Brickell, Biscayne Corridor (Edgewater, Wynwood, Midtown, Design District, Omni), Downtown Miami, The Beaches (South Beach, Miami Beach, Surfside, Bal Harbour, Bay Harbor Islands, Sunny Isles Beach, Hallandale Beach, Hollywood Beach), Aventura, North Miami Beach, Coconut Grove and Key Biscayne since 2012.
Q1 - 2021
Q2 - 2021
Q3 - 2021
% ACTIVE
TOTAL ACTIVE MLS LISTINGS
% ACTIVE
TOTAL ACTIVE MLS LISTINGS
% ACTIVE
(2012-2021)
TOTAL ACTIVE MLS LISTINGS
681
48
6.95%
28
4.05%
27
3.91%
FORT LAUDERDALE
1,265
93
7.35%
67
5.30%
60
4.74%
BRICKELL
5,522
618
11.19%
455
8.24%
428
7.75%
848
98
11.56%
76
8.96%
71
8.37%
5,332
608
11.40%
565
10.60%
488
9.15%
MIAMI BEACH
640
122
19.06%
70
10.94%
81
12.66%
AVENTURA / NORTH MIAMI BEACH
1,442
219
15.19%
167
11.58%
168
11.65%
SUNNY ISLES BEACH
2,118
301
14.21%
256
12.09%
243
11.47%
HALLANDALE/HOLLYWOOD BEACH
539
188
34.88%
130
24.12%
114
21.15%
18,387
2,295
12.47%
1,814
9.86%
1,680
9.13%
*TOTAL UNITS DELIVERED
COCONUT GROVE / KEY BISCAYNE
BAL HARBOUR/SURFSIDE/BAY HARBOR ISLAND DOWNTOWN MIAMI / EDGEWATER
TOTALS
B
U
Y
E
R
* UNDER CONSTRUCTION/PRE-CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS NOT INCLUDED, ONLY THOSE WITH CERTIFICATE OF OCCUPANCY.
SOURCE: MLS
'
S
M
A
R
K
E
T
MLS Sales Profile for 2021
3% COCONUT GROVE/KEY BISCAYNE 5% AVENTURA / NORTH MIAMI 4% DOWNTOWN MIAMI
37% BRICKELL
11% THE BEACHES (MIAMI BEACH - SUNNY ISLES)
14% FORT LAUDERDALE
SOURCE: MLS
1 OUT OF EVERY 3 CONDO SALES IS IN BRICKELL
26% EDGEWATER
A New Cycle Begins
A New Cycle Begins TRADITIONAL CONDOS (NO SHORT TERM RENTALS) Coconut Grove To Fort Lauderdale - East of I-95
HOTEL & RESIDENCES
BRICKELL
DOWNTOWN MIAMI
EDGEWATER
OCEANFRONT RESIDENCES
RESIDENCES
BAY HARBOR
MIAMI BEACH
BAY HARBOR
SUNNY ISLES
FORT LAUDERDALE
A New Cycle Begins SHORT TERM RENTALS IN DOWNTOWN MIAMI
1. 3
2. 3. 4. 5.
2 1
4
5
30 Year condo delivery Analysis for TRADITIONAL CONDOS &
SHORT-TERM/AIRBNB CONDOS Coconut Grove To Fort Lauderdale - East of I-95
58,953 60,000 55,000
45,000
TRADITIONAL VS. SHORT-TERM/AIRBNB
40,000
TRADITIONAL CONDOS - 1,627
35,000
SHORT TERM RENTALS - 1,789
30,000
19,465
25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000
1,627
5,000 0
# OF BUILDINGS
PREVIOUS CYCLE
LAST CYCLE
CURRENT CYCLE
2001 - 2010
2012 - 2020
2021+
275
123
11
SOURCE: MLS
TRADITIONAL CONDO UNITS RELEASED
50,000
Population Demand
FLORIDA'S 5 Year Daily Population Growth
1,100
1,063
943
1,000
(PEOPLE PER DAY)
904
900
800
700
600 2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
FLORIDA'S 5 YEAR AVERAGE FOR DAILY POPULATION GROWTH
FLORIDA IS FAST BECOMING THE SECOND HOME FOR WALL STREET.
OVER 70 COMPANIES HAVE RELOCATED FROM NEW YORK SINCE 2020
Gained The Most Population In 2020 TOTAL DAILY POPULATION GROWTH RANKING
1.
TEXAS
2.
FLORIDA
SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS BUREAU
1,002 904
Lost The Most Population In 2020 TOTAL DAILY POPULATION GROWTH RANKING
49.
NEW YORK
-528
50.
ILLINOIS
-616
SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS BUREAU
U.S. WILL OPEN BORDERS TO VACCINATED FOREIGN TRAVELERS ON NOV. 8 OCTOBER 2021
TAKEAWAYS
1.
SUPPLY SHOCK
2.
A NEW CYCLE BEGINS
3.
POPULATION & DEMAND CONTINUES TO GROW
4.
NOVEMBER 8TH
OCT 2021
Q3 UPDATE