Miami Report Q1 2022 Update

Page 1

2022

Q1 UPDATE


Single Family Homes


SINGLE FAMILY HOMES Total Active Listings in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties TOTAL ACTIVE LISTINGS AVG. # NEW SFH LISTINGS

1,550

10,000

9,495 8,000

AVG. MONTHLY SALES (2022)

6,000

FEWER HOMES FOR SALE

2,100 6,149

-550

4,839

EST. MONTHS OF INVENTORY: SOURCE: MLS

4,000

2,000

Q1 2020

Q1 2021

Q1 2022

6-8 MONTHS


SINGLE FAMILY HOME Price Appreciation in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties AVG. SALES PRICE

1,100,000

1,000,000

$915,314 900,000

800,000

$693,420

700,000

600,000

500,000

SINGLE FAMILY HOME PRICES HAVE MORE THAN DOUBLED IN THE LAST 3 YEARS IN SOUTH FLORIDA

$550,333 $447,425

400,000

300,000

UP - 23% 2018 - 2019

200,000

UP - 26% 2019 - 2020

UP - 32% 2020 - 2021

100,000

0

2018 SOURCE: MILS AND STATISTA

2019

2020

2021


SINGLE FAMILY HOME Price Appreciation in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties AVG. SALES PRICE $1,065,993 1,100,000

1,000,000

$915,314 900,000

800,000

$693,420

700,000

600,000

500,000

$550,333 $447,425

400,000

300,000

UP - 23% 2018 - 2019

200,000

UP - 26% 2019 - 2020

UP - 32% 2020 - 2021

UP - 16% 2021 - 2022

100,000

0

2018 SOURCE: MILS AND STATISTA

2019

2020

2021

Q1 2022


"Who's outbidding you by tens of thousands of dollars for that home of your dreams? A hedge fund!" July 2021


"Single-family homes are the gold standard these days, making up 74.4% of all the investor purchases, the highest percentage on record, and outbidding millennials and first time home buyers." Jan 2022


Gary Berman President & CEO

Watch what they told 60 Minutes!


"Canada to ban foreigners from buying homes for two years as prices soar, and provide billions of dollars to spur construction activity in an attempt to cool off surging real-estate market" Prime Minister Justin Trudeau May 2022


Daryl Fairweather, PhD Chief Economist

Watch what they told 60 Minutes!


Condo


CONDOS Total Active Listings in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties

TOTAL ACTIVE LISTINGS AVG. # NEW CONDO LISTINGS

19,995

1,400

20,000

17,249

AVG. MONTHLY SALES (2022)

15,000

2,500 FEWER HOMES FOR SALE

10,000

-1,100

6,849

EST. MONTHS OF INVENTORY: SOURCE: MLS

5,000

0

Q1 2020

Q1 2021

Q1 2022

6-8 MONTHS


CONDOS Price Appreciation in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties AVG. SALES PRICE

700,000

600,000

$546,617 $522,414

$516,768

$508,883

500,000

DOWN - 1.5% 2018 - 2019

UP - 2.7% 2019 - 2020

UP - 4.6% 2020 - 2021

400,000

2018 SOURCE: MILS AND STATISTA

2019

2020

2021

CONDO PRICES HAVE STAYED FLAT IN THE LAST 3 YEARS UNTIL NOW!


CONDOS Price Appreciation in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties AVG. SALES PRICE

$683,271

700,000

600,000

$546,617 $522,414

$516,768

$508,883

500,000

DOWN - 1.5% 2018 - 2019

UP - 2.7% 2019 - 2020

UP - 4.6% 2020 - 2021

UP - 25% 2021 - 2022

400,000

2018 SOURCE: MILS AND STATISTA

2019

2020

2021

2022


Q1-2022 Sales By Unit Type For Condos Built Since 2012 COCONUT GROVE - FORT LAUDERDALE, EAST OF I-95 ONE BEDROOMS

TWO BEDROOMS

THREE+ BEDROOMS

7%

Active Listings By Unit Type for

ONE BEDROOMS

Condos Built since 2012

33% TWO BEDROOMS

11% THREE+ BEDROOMS

38%

TWO BEDROOMS 56% ONE BEDROOMS

55%

THREE+ BEDROOMS


ACTIVE MLS PRICING ANALYSIS For New Condos Built Since 2012 By Unit Type COCONUT GROVE - FORT LAUDERDALE, EAST OF I-95 AVG, LIST PRICE

AVG. $PSF

AVG. $PSF $2,109

$8,900,000

$9,000,000

3 & 4 BEDROOMS OCEANFRONT

$8,000,000

$7,000,000

Q1 2022 CLOSED SALES $6,000,000

AVG. $PSF $1,371

ARTE SURFSIDE (3 BEDROOMS)

$5,000,000

$3,900 AVG. $PSF $1,156

$4,000,000

AVG. $PSF $885

$1,485,000

$2,000,000

$1,000,000

SURF CLUB FOUR SEASONS (4 BEDROOMS)

$4,927

$733,000

SOURCE: MLS

$3,000,000

AVG. $PSF

$3,200,000

0

ONE BEDROOMS

TWO BEDROOMS

THREE BEDROOMS

FOUR+ BEDROOMS

AVG. $PSF


PRE-CONSTRUCTION VS MLS RESALES 2021 Sales Absorption Ratio 2021 TRANSACTION ANALYSIS

35

40

35

2021 NEW CONDO TRANSACTIONS

30

25

35/36 STANDING INVENTORY

20

15

1/36 WAS PRE-CONSTRUCTION

10

5

1

0

DEVELOPER SALE

MLS RESALE


Karin Kimbrough, Chief Economist at Linked-In, says that the number of Americans quitting their jobs is higher than ever. Watch what Kimbrough told 60 Minutes!


Condos New Construction (CURRENT CYCLE)


4 BAY HARBOR ISLANDS

TRADITIONAL CONDOS (NO SHORT TERM RENTALS)

2

3 MIAMI BEACH / SOUTH BEACH

1

3 BRICKELL

DOWNTOWN MIAMI

2 COCONUT GROVE

SUNNY ISLES BEACH

2 5 FORT LAUDERDALE

BISCAYNE CORRIDOR DESIGN DISTRICT MIDTOWN WYNWOOD

22

CONDOS TOTALING

3,666

RESIDENCES


Macro Future Deliveries for Traditional Condos Released Since 2012

3,077 TOTAL UNITS 1,780 UNSOLD

COCONUT GROVE TO EAST FORT LAUDERDALE

11

TOTAL CONDOS DELIVERED BY YEAR

DEVELOPMENTS

11

8

7 DEVELOPMENTS

7

397 TOTAL UNITS 153 UNSOLD 230 TOTAL UNITS 49 UNSOLD

6 DEVELOPMENTS

5

6

DEVELOPMENTS 264 TOTAL UNITS 79 UNSOLD

5 4

2

3

DEVELOPMENTS

2 1

2022

SOURCE: ON-SITE DEVELOPER SALES OFFICE

*2023

*2024

*2025

*2026+

*PROJECTED

9

1,071 TOTAL UNITS 133 UNSOLD

9 CONDOS RELEASED 2012-2020 22 CONDOS RELEASED 2021+

10


DOMESTIC POPULATION GROWTH States with the Largest Daily Population Growth

THE BIG THREE!

THE BIG THREE!

2012

2017

THE BIG TWO! *2022

RANK

STATES

P/DAY

RANK

STATES

P/DAY

RANK

STATES

P/DAY

1

TEXAS

1,202

1

TEXAS

1,095

1

TEXAS

1,231

2

CALIFORNIA

850

2

FLORIDA

900

2

FLORIDA

1,087

3

FLORIDA

670

3

CALIFORNIA

658

3

IDAHO

330

13

CALIFORNIA

122

SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS BUREAU & USAPOPULATION.ORG *PROJECTED


Takeaways 1. 2. 3.

POST COVID MIAMI: CROWDED & EXPENSIVE

POPULARITY OF HOUSES WORLDWIDE

EMERGING MARKETS


2022

Q1 UPDATE


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