Q1 UPDATE - APRIL 2021 2021
South Florida’s Unprecedented Real Estate Market
MLS Single Family Homes
REASON FOR OPTIMISM
Single Family Homes Break 6 Records in 5 Months
Miami-Dade, Broward & Palm Beach Counties Total Active Listings Analysis for Single Family Homes 12 YEAR RECORD LOW 10,000
9,801 15 YEAR RECORD LOW
8,597
9,000
20 YEAR RECORD LOW
8,092
8,000
25 YEAR RECORD LOW
7,281 7,000
PREVIOUS ALL TIME RECORD LOW
6,697
NEW RECORD LOW
6,149
6,000
5,000
Mid Nov 2020 Source: MLS
Mid Dec 2020
Mid Jan 2021
Mid Feb 2021
Mid Mar 2021
End Mar 2021
MLS CONDOS
New Transaction Analysis for Single Family Homes vs Condos in Miami-Dade, Broward & Palm Beach Counties Single Family Homes
Condos
60%
60% 54% 46%
51%
49%
40%
40%
20%
0%
2020-Q3 Source: MLS
2020-Q4
2021-Q1
Condo Active Listings Analysis in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties Condo Active Listings
22,250
22,457
20,000
19,988 10-YEAR LOW
17,250
17,249
15,000
2020 - Q3 Source: MLS
2020 - Q4
2021 - Q1
What is the Real Estate Rule of Thumb?
10% or more of inventory = Buyer’s market
10% or less of inventory = Seller’s market
Condo MLS Resale Market Snapshot Total new construction condo units delivered in Brickell, Biscayne Corridor (Edgewater, Wynwood, Midtown, Design District, Omni), Downtown Miami, The Beaches (South Beach, Miami Beach, Surfside, Bal Harbour, Bay Harbor Islands, Sunny Isles Beach, Hallandale Beach, Hollywood Beach), Aventura, North Miami Beach, Coconut Grove and Key Biscayne since 2012
Q3 2020
Q4 2020
Q1 2021
% Active
Total Active MLS Listings
% Active
Total Active MLS Listings
% Active
(2012-2020)
Total Active MLS Listings
Brickell
5,522
787
14.25%
688
12.64%
618
11.19%
Downtown Miami/Biscayne Corridor
5,232
733
14.01%
674
12.88%
608
11.62%
The Beaches
3,842
655
17.05%
639
16.63%
503
13.09%
Aventura/North Miami Beach
1,442
366
25.38%
322
22.33%
219
15.19%
Coconut Grove/Key Biscayne
638
85
13.32%
55
8.62%
48
7.52%
1,265
111
8.77%
132
10.43%
93
7.35%
17,941*
2,737
15.26%
2,510
13.99%
2,089
11.64%
Total Units Delivered
Fort Lauderdale Totals
B * Under construction/pre-construction projects not included, only those with certificate of occupancy.
Source: MLS
U
Y
E
R
S
M
A
R
K
E
T
New Condo Resales New condos built since 2012 Coconut Grove to East Fort Lauderdale
431
2021
Condo Resales projected to surpass 2020 by June
JAN - MAR 50% of 2020 Sales
871
2020 Jan - Dec
755
2019 Jan - Dec 100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
New Construction
(Previous Cycle Condos 2012 - 2020)
PREVIOUS CYCLE
New Construction Condo Summary Coconut Grove to Fort Lauderdale, Traditional New Condos East of I-95 Traditional Condos are defined as Condos with no short-term rentals
95% Sold
REMAINING DEVELOPER INVENTORY
as of April 2021
SOLD DEVELOPER UNITS
1,036
18,435
Remaining Developer Inventory
Total Sold Units
600 / 1,036 are the remaining units of STANDING INVENTORY
19,471
Total Units Released since 2012 Source: Developer Onsite Sales Offices, Developer Sales Reports and Broker Contacts
Macro Future Deliveries for Traditional Condos Built Since 2012
Coconut Grove to East Fort Lauderdale TOTAL CONDOS DELIVERED BY DECADE
7 7
Elysee Grove Arbor 57th Ocean Monaco Yacht Club & Residences
6
The Estates at Acqualina South Tower 2000 Ocean
5
Four Season’s Private Residences
4
4
Aston Martin Missoni Baia The Estates at Acqualina North Tower Aurora
3
2
1
Mr. C Residences*
1
Solemar Residences*
1
Una Residences*
1
0
2021
2022
Source: Miami-Dade & Broward County Tax Records and Developer onsite sales office
2023
2024
2025 *Projected
30 Year Condo Delivery Analysis for Condos East of I-95 TOTAL CONDOS DELIVERED BY DECADE
60,000
58,953
50,000
40,000
30,000
19,971
20,000
CONDOS CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION
1,631
*
10,000
0
2001-2010
2011-2020
2021-2030
(previous decade)
(last decade)
(current decade)
Source: Miami-Dade & Broward County Tax Records and Developer onsite sales office
*Projected
A New Cycle Begins
Brickell
Downtown Miami
Pompano Beach
Related kicks off new condo cycle, teases Baccarat Branded Condo in Brickell, March 2021
Waldorf Astoria Miami, planned as the tallest residential tower south of Manhattan, launches Sales, March 2021
Related launches sales at Solemar, a luxury condo planned for Pompano Beach, March 2021
Population/ Demand
February 2021
In New York, we are witnessing, for the first time in a century and a half, the collapse of the commuter model. You had to be in the magic metropolis if you were going to be in the top of your profession. But now, you do not have to be in the city, the top people are everywhere.
February 2021
New York needs to hold on to the wealthy - the top 5% percent in New York pay 62% of state income taxes. The Partnership for New York City reports 300,000 residents of high-income neighborhood have filed change-of address forms with the U.S. Postal Service and are going to lower-tax and no-income-tax states. Peggy Noonan Weekly columnist for WSJ, contributor to NBC News and ABC News & a primary speechwriter to President Ronald Reagan
January 2021
Florida is fast becoming the Second Home for Wall Street.
Domestic Florida Migration Since 2018 (Tax Payers & Dependents)
- January 2020
NEW YORK
CONNECTICUT
NEW JERSEY
ILLINOIS
MASSACHUSETTS
1. Florida
1. Florida
1. Florida
1. Florida
1. Florida
2. New Jersey
2. Texas
2. North Carolina
2. Texas
2. Georgia
3. North Carolina
3. North Carolina
3. Georgia
3. Indiana
3. Texas
Source: MLS
South Florida Condo Buyer Profile Trend Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties LATIN AMERICA DOMESTIC
50%
49%
49%
10%
0%
2010
23%
U.S. / DOMESTIC
U.S. more than doubles in 10 years.
L AT I N A M E R I C A
20%
21% U.S. / DOMESTIC
30%
L AT I N A M E R I C A
40%
2020
April 2021 “New York is seeing how much dough it can squeeze out of millionaires’ paychecks without pushing them to Fisher Island. The changes mean that the wealthiest New York City residents will face the highest combined local and state personal income rate in the country, surpassing California. Which makes many NYC leaders, including mayoral candidates Andrew Yang and Ray McGuire, anxious that the tax hike could lead to a 1970s-esque corporate exodus, when the city lost half its Fortune 500 companies.”
Takeaways
1.
2.
3.
4.
Declining Developer and Resale Inventory
Historic Low Interest Rates
Continued Population Growth/Demand
Supply Shock
Q1 UPDATE - APRIL 2021 2021