Fort Lauderdale Edition
2 0 2 0
STATE OF THE MARKET
“ Roughly 20,000 new construction units have been or planned in the Miami area since the last downturn, according to the ISG World 2019 Miami Report.” JUNE 28, 2019
“ Roughly 20,000 new construction units have been or planned in the Miami area since the last downturn, according to the ISG World 2019 Miami Report.” JUNE 28, 2019
ACTUAL: 19,710 Total Units / 17,609 Sold Units / 91% SOLD
SUPPLYSHOCK The accelerated decline of new developer condo inventory
SUPPLY SHOCK SUMMARY As of January, 2020
CURRENT CYCLE
NEXT CYCLE
SUMMARY
PROJECTIONS
Remaining developer inventory
Projected start of next cycle
1,650
2021
Florida’s daily population growth
Projected delivery of new developer inventory in the next cycle
(611 Delivered / 964 Under Construction / 75 Pre-construction)
950
2026
NEW CONDO CONSTRUCTION
CURRENT CYCLE
New Construction Condo Summary REMAINING DEVELOPER INVENTORY SOLD DEVELOPER UNITS
91% SOLD As of January 2020
1,650
18,060
Remaining Developer Inventory
Total Sold Units
19,710 Total Units
CURRENT CYCLE
Macro 2016-2021 Absorption Analysis for New Condos Built Since 2012 TOTAL UNSOLD DEVELOPER UNITS
1,216
19,710 20,000 19,000 18,000
Average Annual Absorption
17,000 16,000
(2016-2019)
15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000
6,515
8,000 7,000 6,000
5,195
5,000 4,000
3,810
3,000
2,458
2,000
1,650
1,000
0*
0
Jan 2012 * Projected
Jan 2016
Jan 2017
Jan 2018
Jan 2019
Jan 2020
Dec 2022*
Total Unsold Developer Units by Area TOTAL UNSOLD DEVELOPER UNITS
1,400
1,348
1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000
1,348 Miami + 302 Fort Lauderdale Unsold = 1,650 Total Developer Units
900 800 700 600 500
302
400 300 200 100 0
Miami
Fort Lauderdale
CURRENT CYCLE
Total Unsold Developer Units by Price Point TOTAL UNSOLD DEVELOPER UNITS
778
643
218 FLL | 560 Miami 1,000
47 FLL | 596 Miami
Projected Sellout: 12 Months/less
229
750
Projected Sellout: 18-24 Months
37 FLL | 192 Miami
500
Projected Sellout: 18-24 Months
250
0
$2M & UNDER
$2M - $3M
1,650
Total Unsold Developer Units
$3M & UP
CURRENT CYCLE
Condo Groundbreakings TOTAL GROUNDBREAKINGS
23 20 20
18
Aston Martin 2000 Ocean
15
Four Seasons Private Residences
14
15
The Estates at Acqualina Glasshaus In the Grove
11 57 Ocean Smart Brickell Tower II (short term rental)
10
YotelPad Miami (short term rental)
5
Una Residences
5
3
1 0*
0
2012 * Projected
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020*
2021*
CURRENT CYCLE
East Fort Lauderdale Condo Groundbreakings TOTAL GROUNDBREAKINGS
Auberge North Tower Auberge South Tower Riva Galleria Lofts
5
4 4
3
Aquablu Fort Lauderdale Gale Hotel and Residences
Aquavita Las Olas Paramount Residences Fort Lauderdale
2
2
100 Las Olas Adagio Fort Lauderdale
2
2
2
321 at Water’s Edge Four Seasons Private Residences
1
0
0
2012
2013
0
0*
0
* Projected
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020*
NEXT CYCLE (projected)
Miami’s Pre-Construction Development Cycle Timeline Typical high-rise condominium development cycle 0
0.5 years
1 year
NEW CYCLE INCEPTION*
* Projected
2 years
2.5 years
3 years
Pre-Sale Requirement Achieved/ Groundbreaking
Pre-Sale
2021
1.5 years
2022
2023
2024
3.5 years
4 years
4.5 years
5 years
Top Off
Completion
2025
2026+ DELIVERY*
MLS/RESALE MARKET
Condo MLS Resale Market snapshot for Condos built since 2012 East of I-95 Q4 2018
Total Units Delivered (2012 - 2019)
Total Active MLS Listings % Active
Q4 2019 Total Active MLS Listings
% Active
Brickell
5,522
839 15.19%
736 13.33%
Downtown Miami / Biscayne Corridor
5,232
808
15.44%
710
13.57%
The Beaches
3,506
719
20.51%
672
19.17%
Aventura / North Miami Beach
1,442
344
23.86%
296
20.53%
Coconut Grove / Key Biscayne
503
89
17.69%
77
15.31%
Fort Lauderdale
1,080
133
12.31%
98
9.07%
17,285
2,932 16.96%
2,589 14.98%
East Fort Lauderdale Resales Snapchat for condos built since 2012 % RESALE AVAILABLE FOR SALE
14%
13.39%
13%
11.63%
12%
11%
10%
9.07% 9%
8%
Dec 2017
Dec 2018
Dec 2019
MLS Resale Update - Condos Miami-Dade & Broward County TOTAL ACTIVE CONDOS
20,100
20,992
20,000
19,900
19,756
19,800
17,131 Added 18,367 Absorbed Condos Absorbed 1,605 since May 2019
19,700
Total Sales 2019: 33,377 6-12 Months Remaining Inventory
19,600,
19,500
Apr 30, 2019
Dec 31, 2019
MLS Resale Update - Single Family Homes Miami-Dade & Broward County TOTAL ACTIVE SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
13,000
12,991
12,000
11,129
20,917 Added 23,779 Absorbed Condos Absorbed 1,862 since May 2019
11,000
Total Sales 2019: 33,256 6-12 Months Remaining Inventory 10,000
Apr 30, 2019
Dec 31, 2019
U.S. Annual Mortgage Rates Average 30 Year Fix 4.75%
4.54%
4.5%
4.12%
I N T E R E S T R AT E
4.25%
4.0%
3.58%
3.75%
3.5%
3.25%
3% RECORD-LOW
3%
2018
2019
2020
DEMAND
Regional Population Migration The U.S. is experiencing a domestic migration trend and population shift from states in the Northeast and Midwest to states in the South like Florida and Texas. According to U.S. Census data, Florida had the highest level of net domestic migration from 2017-2018.
1999
2019 NORTHEAST
WEST
MIDWEST
SOUTH
Fastest Growing State Rankings
NORTHEAST
WEST
MIDWEST
SOUTH
Fastest Growing State Rankings
1. California............................... 1,267 ppl per day
1. Texas...................................... 1,096 ppl per day
2. Texas......................................... 909 ppl per day
2. Florida..................................950 ppl per day
3. Florida..................................556 ppl per day
3. Arizona..................................... 330 ppl per day
5. Arizona................................... 304 ppl per day
11. California................................ 139 ppl per day
11. Illinois..................................... 161 ppl per day
43. Connecticut............................. -20 ppl per day
14. New Jersey............................ 131 ppl per day
45. Massachusetts......................... -26 ppl per day
17. New York................................ 103 ppl per day
48. New Jersey............................. -72 ppl per day
19. Connecticut.............................. 97 ppl per day
49. Illinois.................................... -189 ppl per day
20. Massachusetts.......................... 85 ppl per day
50. New York............................... -242 ppl per day
Sources: worldpopulationreview.com & U.S. Census Bureau
Florida’s Daily Population Growth
15%
48% / 950
25%
Broward (Fort Lauderdale)
8%
Miami-Dade
Palm Beach
of Florida’s daily migration is in South Florida
52%
Rest of State
Source: Demographics for the Bureau of Economics and Business
Fort Lauderdale
International Markets
Florida #1 in U.S. foreign buyer sales - 2019
Mexico Population: 123 Mil President: Andrés Manuel López Obrador
Brazil Population: 208.5 Mil President: Jair Bolsonaro
Colombia Population: 49.85 Mil President: Iván Duque Márquez
Argentina Population: 44.7 Mil President: Alberto Fernández
Economic Landscape Florida’s Economy is the
4
th
largest in the U.S.
Largest U.S. Economies by State
U.S. Ranking
California 1 Texas 2 New York
3
World Ranking
#55 #17 2009
2019
Florida 4
“ Florida’s economy will grow faster than the nations.” January 2020
FORT LAUDERDALE TRANSFORMATION
Multi-Family Transforming Downtown Fort Lauderdale
Total New Multi-Family Residential Units in Downtown Fort Lauderdale
1,423
Under Review
5,096 Approved
5,114
Under Construction
11,633
Total Multi-Family Residential Units
3,120
to be delivered in 2020 Compared to 4,650 total Multi Family units built in Greater Downtown since 2003
Greater Fort Lauderdale Continues to Attract Top Corporations A sampling of the major companies that have relocated or expanded in Greater Fort Lauderdale in the last 5 years.
Virgin Trains Plans New Stations The company is building a 170-mile rail expansion between the Orlando airport and its West Palm BeachFort Lauderdale-Miami network.
Orlando
Tampa
Theme Park Area
PROJECTED PASSENGER SERVICE LATE
2022
West Palm Beach Current Stations Future Stations
Source: floridatoday.com
Fort Lauderdale Miami
David Beckham: “Everything is on schedule” with Inter Miami CF’s inaugural season
INTER MIAMI FC FORT LAUDERDALE MLS OPENER
March 1 , 2020 st
Fort Lauderdale International Boat Show World’s Largest Boat Shows
#1
Fort Lauderdale International Boat Show
#2
The Dusseldorf International Boat Show
#3
Miami International Boat Show
SUPPLYSHOCK The accelerated decline of new developer condo inventory
Miami Report | Fort Lauderdale Edition
1.
Low Developer Inventory
2.
Limited future supply
3.
Population growth
4.
Downtown transformation
Fort Lauderdale Edition
2 0 2 0
STATE OF THE MARKET