Conclusion
I
n the context of the increasing use of social media and new digital technologies by political leaders, parties and candidates at the time of elections; and the emerging debate about social media’s role not just in shaping opinions and voting choices but also in fuelling social conflict through misinformation and communally divisive propaganda, this report has looked at four aspects related to social media in India – one, the actual extent of its usage among the voters; two, the socio-economic profile of those who use it; three, the impact it may be having on voters’ awareness levels, and their attitudes regarding minorities and the growing identity related debates in the country; and, four, its possible impact on voting choices in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. We have three broad conclusions to make based on the sample survey-based evidence and analysis that has been presented in the report. First, as far as the role played by social media in shaping voting choices in the 2019 Lok Sabha election (won by the BJP-led NDA) is concerned, an analysis of voting behaviour data from Lokniti’s National Election Study throws up findings that do not allow us to confidently state that it was social media that turned the election in favour of the BJP. Even as the data shows that the BJP-led alliance did enjoy an advantage among social media users, and particularly among those who use it very often, at the same time the survey also finds the BJP to have done quite well among those who were not on social media at all. Considering that the latter, that is, those who have never used social media, continues to be a very large segment of the electorate (nearly two-thirds according to our survey) and those who use it are merely one-third of the electorate (with regular users just being one-tenth), it appears that the BJP may well have won the election even if we take social media out of the equation. Moreover, we also find that the BJP’s social media advantage did not exist across the board – for instance, while we find a strong correlation between social media usage and vote for the BJP among upper castes and adviasis, we do not find a similar relationship to have existed among Dalits and OBCs. Similarly, the correlation was strong among the college educated but not among those who have studied up till Class X. Furthermore, while the propensity of voters with higher social media usage to vote for the BJP was seen on most social media platforms, there were however some where it was not visible. And even on those platforms where it was visible, the relationship was not a perfectly linear one. What’s more, the BJP’s advantage
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