Slides for Planetary Health

Measures of human development over time reveal extraordinary improvements over the 20th century in literacy (a), wealth (b), child survival (c) and life expectancy (d).

Sources: Our World in Data (https://ourworldindata.org), Creative Commons, license CC BY 4.0

Fig 1.1 in

Measures of consumption over time show dramatic increases since 1950.

Source: Myers, S. S. Planetary health: protecting human health on a rapidly changing planet. The Lancet. 2017; 390(10114): 2860-2868.

Fig 1.2 in

Measures of human impact on natural systems show steep increases since 1950.

Source: Myers, S. S. Planetary health: protecting human health on a rapidly changing planet. The Lancet. 2017; 390(10114): 2860-2868.

Fig 1.3 in

Schematic illustrating impacts of anthropogenic change on human health.

Source: Myers, S. S. Planetary health: protecting human health on a rapidly changing planet.

The Lancet. 2017; 390(10114): 2860-2868.

Fig 1.4 in

Global population, 1950-2100. The UN high variant (the uppermost line, in red), is half a child per woman above the median (in yellow); the low variant (the bottom line, in green), is half a child below.

Source: United Nations, DESA, Population Division. World Population Prospects 2019.

Available at http://population.un.org/wpp/, Creative Commons, license CC BY-3.0 IGO.

Fig 3.1 in

Fertility Estimates in Bangladesh and Pakistan

Fig 3.2.1 in

Population Estimates and Projections in Bangladesh and Pakistan

Fig 3.2.2 in

Number of people living in urban versus rural settings, historical and projected.

Source: United Nations, DESA, Population Division. World Population Prospects 2019.

Available at http://population.un.org/wpp/, Creative Commons, license CC BY-3.0 IGO.

Fig 3.3 in

Growth in human population (a), per capita GDP (b), and total GDP (c) over time. Of note, since around 1870, human population has increased roughly seven-fold, while per capita GDP has increased by more than 11 times.

Source: Max Roser (https://ourworldindata.org), Creative Commons, license CC BY-SA

Fig 3.4 in

Per capita CO2 emissions, 2014, in selected countries with populations greater than 100 million people Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Tennessee, at World Bank development indicator database. Available at https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC

Fig 3.5 in

Energy intensity of global economy, in thousands of British Thermal Units (BTUs) per dollar (U.S.) of GDP, 1990-2015.

(Energy intensity is the amount of energy required to generate one dollar of gross domestic product.)

Source: EIA. International Energy Outlook 2016. International Energy Statistics and Oxford Economics. Available at https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=27032

Fig 3.6 in

Time series of annual values of global mean temperature anomalies (red and blue bars) in degrees Celsius, and observed carbon dioxide concentrations at Mauna Loa (black line). Data are relative to 20thcentury average levels.

Source: NOAA, National Centers for Environmental information, Climate at a Glance: Global Time Series, 2019. Available at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series

Fig 4.1 in

Potential climate tipping points Source: Adapted from Rockstrรถm, J. Climate Tipping Points. Global Challenges, 2019.

Available at https://globalchallenges.org/our-work/annual-report/climate-tipping-points

Fig 4.2 in

The nitrogen cycle. Human introduction of fixed nitrogen, mostly through fertilizer application, now exceeds all natural sources combined on an annual basis Source: Adapted from Pidwirny, M. The Nitrogen Cycle. In: Fundamentals of Physical Geography, 2nd Edition. Available at: http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/9s.html

Fig 4.3 in

The dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico, at the outflow of the Mississippi River, in 2017.

Source: Courtesy of N. N. Rabalais (LSU/LUMCON) and R. E. Turner (LSU) Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science

Fig 4.4 in

Global land area in biomes (labels on left) and expressed as land uses (color codes indicated at bottom) in the years 1700 (bottom) and 2000 (top).

Source: Data from Appendix S5 in Ellis, E. C., Klein Goldewijk, K., Siebert, S., Lightman, D., & Ramankutty, N. Anthropogenic transformation of the biomes, 1700 to 2000. Global ecology and biogeography. 2010; 19(5): 589-606

Fig 4.5 in

Estimated water stress globally in 2019 Source: WRI Aqueduct tool available at http://aqueduct.wri.org/, accessed on October 26, 2019, Creative Commons, license CC-BY

Fig 4.8 in

Historical global water withdrawals (black solid line) with projections of future demand made prior to 1980 (red lines), between 1980 and 1995 (blue lines), between 1995 and 2000 (green lines), and post2000 (black dotted line).

Source: Gleick, PH. Water Projections and Scenarios: Thinking About Our Future. In: The Gulbenkian Thinktank on Water and the Future of Humanity, eds. Water and the Future of Humanity: Revisiting Water Security. New York: Springer; 2014:185-205.

Fig 4.9 in

Species extinction rates, in extinctions per thousand species per millennium Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Ecosystems and Human Wellbeing: Biodiversity Synthesis. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute; 2005.

Fig 4.10 in

Cumulative plastic production since World War II Source: Our World in Data (https://ourworldindata.org/plastic-pollution), Creative Commons, license CC BY

Fig 4.11 in

Historical and projected global dietary energy supply Sources: Per capita caloric supplies: data adapted from Food and Agriculture Organization. Food supply (kcal/capita/day). Rome: FAO; 2016.

Fig 5.1 in

Trends in cereal yields (tons per hectare) by world region, 1961-2016 Source: Data from Food and Agriculture Organization (https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ag.yld.crel.kg), Creative Commons, license CC BY4.0

Fig 5.2 in

Precision agriculture often includes “smart� tractors accessing detailed geospatial data on soil geochemistry, past crop yields, crop types, and fertilizer and irrigation requirements and guided by satellite GPS systems.

Source: Adapted from https://www.gps4us.com/

Fig 5.4 in

Greenhouse gas emissions associated with common animal- and plant-based foods across the life cycle from production to consumption to waste.

Source: Environmental Working Group. Meat Eater’s Guide to Climate Change and Health. 2011.

Fig 5.7 in

Reported cases of Lyme disease in the US, in 2001 (on left) and 2017 (on right). One dot is randomly placed in the county of residence of each case.

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Available at: https://www.cdc.gov/lyme/datasurveillance/index.html

Fig 6.1 in

Entomological inoculation rate (EIR) and vectorial capacity vary with ambient temperatures, initially increasing and then precipitously declining with warmer conditions.

Source: Adapted from Alitzer et al. Climate change and infectious diseases: from evidence to a predictive framework. Science. 2013; 341(6145):514-519

Fig 6.2 in

Proportion of global deaths under the age of 70, by cause of death, 2012 (top) and proportion of NCD deaths attributable to different disease categories (bottom).

Source: World Health Organization. Global Status Report on NonCommunicable Diseases, 2014. 2014;WHO/NMH/NVI/15.1.

Available at: http://www.who.int/nmh/publications/ncd-statusreport-2014/en/

Fig 7.1 in

This infographic, from the NCD Alliance, emphasizes the opportunities to reduce NCDs in the course of achieving the Sustainable Development Goals.

Source: NCD Alliance

Fig 7.4 in

Drivers of migration

Source: The Government Office for Science, London. Foresight: Migration and Global Environmental Change- Final Project Report. 2011.

Fig 8.3 in

Number of international migrants classified by region of origin and destination, 2017. Northern America includes the United States and Canada while Mexico is included in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Source: United Nations Department of Economics and Social Affairs. International Migration Report 2017. ST/ESA/SER.A/403. New York: UNDESA; 2017.

Fig 8.4 in

Migration patterns in response to global environmental change and associated drivers.

Source: Adapted from Brzoska M, Frรถhlich C. Climate change, migration and violent conflict: vulnerabilities, pathways and adaptation strategies. Migration and Development. 2016;5(2):190-210.

Fig 8.5 in

Poverty and vulnerability to climate change: the phenomenon of “trapped populations.�

Source: The Government Office for Science, London. Foresight: Migration and Global Environmental Change- Final Project Report. 2011.

Fig 8.6 in

Number of armed conflicts, global, by type of conflict, 1946-2017.

Note the decline of extrastate (between a state and a non-state entity) and interstate (between two or more governments) conflicts, and the rise of intrastate (civil wars) and internationalized (in which third states intervene) conflicts.

Source: Dupuy, Kendra & Siri Aas Rustad. Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2017. Conflict Trends 2018; 5. Oslo: PRIO. Creative Commons, license CC-BY

Fig 8.7 in

There is a clear association between temperature and aggressive or violent behavior, from violent crime (left), to rape (center), to retaliation during baseball games (right).

Source: Adapted from Hsiang S, Burke M and Miguel E. Quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict. Science 2013; 341(6151): 1235367

Fig 9.2 in

Trends in Americans’ views of climate change. Note increasing concern over the five-year period 2013 to 2018.

Source: Yale Program on Climate Change Communications and George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communications

Fig 9.6 in

Pathways from climate change to health outcomes.

Source: Frumkin H, Haines, A. Global environmental change and noncommunicable disease risks. Annual Review of Public Health. 2019; 40:261-282 adapted from McMichael AJ. Globalization, climate change, and human health. New Engl. J. Med. 2013; 368:1335– 43

Fig 10.1 in

With continued warming of the planet, higher temperatures will become the “new normal,� as suggested by the shifting temperature distribution shown in this diagram.

Source: Battisti DS, Naylor RL. Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat. Science 2009;323:240-4.

Fig 10.2 in

Rising ragweed pollen counts with rising CO2 levels.

Source: Adapted from Ziska L, Caulfield F. Rising CO2 and pollen production of common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia), a known allergy-inducing species: implications for public health. Aust. J. Plant Physiol. 2000;27:893-898.

Fig 10.4 in

Survey estimates of trustworthiness (the probability of a lost wallet being returned) versus the observed probability that a lost wallet is returned.

Source: John Helliwell

Fig 11.5 in

A conceptual pathway linking energy use and health.

Sources: Updated, revised, and adapted from Jaccard M. Sustainable Fossil Fuels: The Unusual Suspect in the Quest for Clean and Enduring Energy. New York, NY and Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press; 2005 and Wilkinson P, Smith KR, Joffe M, Haines A. A global perspective on energy: health effects and injustices.

The Lancet 2007; 370(9591):965-978.

Fig 12.1 in

Primary global energy sources (1800 – 2017). New renewables appear in recent decades. Wind, solar, and other renewables (including biofuels) are so small at present as to be barely visible, but are growing rapidly.

Source: Generated using data compiled by and available from Our World in Data (ourworldindata.org/energy-production-and-changing-energy-sources).

Fig 12.2 in

Integrated exposure response curves depict relationship between . annual exposure to PM2.5 and relative risk of lower respiratory infection (LRI), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), ischemic heart disease (IHD), lung cancer (LC), Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM), and stroke.

Source: Burnett RT, Pope CA, Ezzati M et al. An integrated risk function for estimating the global burden of disease attributable to ambient fine particulate matter exposure. Environ Health Perspect 2014;122:397–403

Fig 12.4 in

An overview of life cycle emissions by currently available electricity generation technologies. The colors represent the source of the emissions. PV = photovoltaic.

Source: Adapted from data available in Appendix Table A.III.2 of Bruckner T, Bashmakov IA, Mulugetta Y et al. Chapter 7: Energy Systems. In: Edenhofer O, Richs-Madruga R, Sokona Y et al, eds. Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press; 2014.

Fig 12.5 in

Deaths per million tons coal produced in China, India, and the US. Sources: Jennings N. Mining: An Overview. In: Stellman, J, ed. Encyclopedia of Occupational Health & Safety. International Labor Organization: Geneva, 2011.

Fig 12.6 in

Cities and Health. Conceptual model of key drivers of urban health, equity, and sustainability.

Source: Diez Roux A, Slesinski S, Alazraqui M, Caiaffa W et al. A Novel international partnership for actionable evidence on urban health in Latin America: LAC-Urban Health and SALURBAL. Global Challenges 2018; 3(4): 1800013.

Fig 13.2 in

Schematic of the population responses observed in a lake food web during and after experimental addition of a synthetic estrogen (EE2). Fig 14.1 in Yellow arrows represent likely indirect effects and orange arrows represent potential direct effects. The percentages refer to changes in abundance or biomass.

Source: Kidd KA, Paterson MJ, Rennie MD, et al. Direct and indirect responses of a freshwater food web to a potent synthetic oestrogen. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2014;369.

Upbeat advertisement for synthetic chemicals following World War II.

Fig 14.3 in

The extent of knowledge of neurotoxic chemicals. Of the thousands of chemicals in commerce, only a small fraction have been proven to cause developmental neurotoxicity in children, but another 200 can cause neurotoxicity in adult workers and a further 1,000 are neurotoxic in experimental animals.

Source: Grandjean P, Landrigan PJ. Developmental neurotoxicity of industrial chemicals. Lancet 2006;368(9553):21672178.

Fig 14.4 in

A schematic of matter flows that support the operation of civilization, based on ideas of Herman Daly.

Fig 14.5 in

A representation of how the relationship between the economy and biosphere has changed since the dawn of the industrial age

Fig 15.1 in

The status of nine planetary boundaries Source: Adapted from: Steffen W, Richardson K, Rockstrรถm J et al.

Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet. Science 2015;347(6223):1259855.

Fig 15.2 in

The classical circular flow diagram in economics

Fig 15.3 in

The doughnut model of the safe and just operating space for humanity, showing a social foundation with lower limits, and an ecological ceiling with upper limits Source: Kate Raworth (Wikimedia), Creative Commons, license CC BY-SA 4.0

Fig 15.4 in

Typical depiction of supply, demand and equilibrium in a market

Fig 15.5 in

Supply and demand with a negative production externality

Fig 15.6 in

Linkages between ecosystem services and human wellbeing Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Biodiversity Synthesis. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute; 2005. Available at: https://www.millenniumassessment.org/documents/document.354.aspx.pdf

Fig 15.7 in

An example of a multi-capitals framework Source: Copyright Š March 2013 by the International Integrated Reporting Council. All rights reserved. Used with permission of the International Integrated Reporting Council.

Permission is granted to make copies of this work to achieve maximum exposure.

Fig 15.8 in

Sample DALY calculations for asthma and ischemic heart disease

Fig 15.9 in

The Sustainable Development Goals Fig 16.1 in

Illustrative profile of societal costs and private costs over time. Fig 16.2 in Each arrow represents a stepwise transfer of externalized costs to a private firm. Such transfers can be abrupt and can result in considerable increases in operating costs.

Capturing positive externalities can be a win-win. Here the balance of benefits shifts from society to private interests, but the sum total of benefits increases.

Fig 16.3 in

The contribution of supply chain tiers to Kering’s environmental profits and losses (EP&L), divided by impact area. Small-scale changes in sourcing options, such as replacing materials with recycled alternatives, can result in tangible reductions in negative impacts.

Source: Kering. Environmental Profit & Loss, 2017 Group Results. 2018.

Fig 16.4 in

The contribution of major groups of raw materials to Kering’s environmental profits and losses (EP&L), and the quantities of raw materials involved.

Source: Kering. Environmental Profit & Loss, 2017 Group Results. 2018.

Fig 16.5 in

The environmental impacts of choices in design, sourcing, and manufacturing. In this example, Kering luxury shoes, the Fig 16.6 in environmental impact varies by a factor of 12 from lowest to highest, with the largest impacts relating to type of leather used and the site of manufacturing (impacts in Asia are tenfold higher than in Europe).

Source: Kering. Environmental Profit & Loss, 2015 Group Results. 2016.

Cumulative national carbon dioxide emissions, 19502000 (upper panel), and distribution of four climaterelated causes of death (malaria, malnutrition, diarrhea, and flood-related fatalities) (lower panel). In this cartogram, each nation’s size is proportional to its impact.

Source: Patz JA, Gibbs HK, Foley JA, Rogers JV, Smith KR. Climate change and global health: Quantifying a growing ethical crisis. EcoHealth 2007; 4: 397405.

Fig 17.1 in