Weather We Don't Recognize

Weather We Don’t Recognize

How climate change is affecting the Midwest’s weather and how communities are responding

About Island Press and the National Wildlife Federation Island Press and the National Wildlife Federation collaborated to produce and distribute this report to summarize the major findings of the 2014 National Climate Assessment for the Midwest and highlight how communities are responding to the threats posed by a changing climate. These two non-profit organizations are committed to informing the public about climate change and influencing society’s response to it.

Island Press Island Press was founded in 1984 to provide the knowledge people need to understand and protect the environment and create solutions to its complex problems. With more than 800 titles in print and some 40 new releases each year, it is the nation’s leading publisher on environmental issues. By working with leading thinkers from around the world, it elevates the voices of change, shines a spotlight on crucial issues, and focuses attention on sustainable solutions. Over the past three decades, our publications and outreach campaigns have inspired new fields of study, spurred the growth of new organizations, and catalyzed important policies and practices. Please see Islandpress.org for more information.

National Wildlife Federation For over 75 years the National Wildlife Federation (NWF) has been a leading voice for wildlife conservation in the United States. It is dedicated to protecting wildlife and habitat and inspiring future generations of conservationists. To ensure that wildlife survive the major challenges of the 21st century of climate change and habitat loss, it works with diverse groups that share common goals and develops sustainable solutions to problems facing the environment and wildlife. NWF’s climate smart conservation program focuses on helping people and wildlife cope with and adapt to a changing climate. Please see nwf.org for more information.

Acknowledgements Island Press and the National Wildlife Federation gratefully acknowledge the support of the Charles Stewart Mott Foundation for the publishing and distribution of this report.

Design and illustrations by Amanda Frayer.

Cover photo by Cory Morse, MLive.com. Apr 22, 2013, Grand Rapids, Michigan. A duck swims by the windows of Anderson Eye Care inside the Riverfront Plaza Building as the Grand River floods downtown. Previous water levels can be seen marked on the wall.

Weather We Don’t Recognize How climate change is affecting the Midwest’s weather and how communities are responding

Sandra Tassel Look at the Land, Inc.

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Table of contents Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Why is the weather becoming so unfamiliar?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Chicago: Culture and community priorities shape action plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 What has already changed and what does the future hold? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 What scientists have observed already. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 What scientists say we can expect. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 What will the changing weather mean for us?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 The dangers of higher temperatures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Cleveland: Moderating heat with tree canopies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 A vanishing species: The Karner blue butterfly. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Water—too much and too little. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Rising risk of water contamination. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Washtenaw County, Mich.: Preventing problems can pay off . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Milwaukee: Taking action (without talking about climate change). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Lorain, Ohio: Climate-smart river restoration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Climate change and changing land uses. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 The economic costs of our changing climate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Baltimore: Preparing every family. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Reducing emissions reduces risks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 At home and at work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 The role of cities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Cleveland: Locally grown food reduces city’s carbon footprint . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Carmel, Ind.: Climate-smart development brings economic and political success . . . . . . . . 28 How communities can prepare. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Infrastructure upgrades and improvements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Milwaukee: Going green to save green… and the Lake. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Green infrastructure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Baltimore: Keeping buildings out of harm’s way . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Improving development policies and practices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Updating local and state hazard response plans. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Conservation and restoration as risk reducers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Huron River, Mich.: Quality data benefits downstream communities and fish alike . . . . . . 35 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

Introduction It’s not your imagination: the weather in the Midwest has been changing. You don’t have to be a senior citizen to remember skating on frozen lakes, sleeping comfortably during the summer months with the windows wide open, going to the beach without worrying about whether the water was safe, or catching a creel full of fish for dinner.

More than a century of detailed records of temperature, rain, and snowfall confirm our sense that things are different. The climate is changing.

Summers are hotter and more humid. The Midwest now receives more rain and less snow in the winter (although there are notable exceptions like the winter of 2013–2014). Spring and fall are generally warmer and wetter. And more big storms dump more rain in a shorter period of time as a result of the new patterns that produce increasingly violent weather.

The difference between weather and climate is time. Weather is what you see outside over a short period of time. Climate is the average of that weather over a longer period, usually taken over 30 years. For a further explanation, see http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/noaa-n/ climate/climate_weather.html#.VGD1TvnF-lY. The purpose of this report is to help individuals, organizations, corporations, communities, philanthropists, and governments understand and respond to new weather patterns. On one hand, our responses should seek to stem the huge increase in heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere that are the root cause of climate change, the term used for the new patterns. However, because we are already experiencing the extreme weather associated with climate change, we also need to prepare for the effect on us and our communities.

Scientists are working urgently to forecast future weather and to understand how it will impact our lives and livelihoods. The results of their research will help us adapt to life in a warmer, wetter Midwest.

Experts from every field of study related to weather and its impacts developed the third version of the National Climate Assessment (NCA), which was made public in May 2014. 1 This report distills the essential information from the Midwest portion of the NCA for anyone with an interest in the health and well-being of the Midwest and Midwesterners. Any data or information cited in this report without an endnote was derived from the NCA. In addition to the information distilled from the NCA, this report contains examples from Midwestern communities that are taking action to both limit their climate-altering activities and prepare for the changing climate. The examples highlight actions that enhance, protect, and restore natural infrastructure, such as wetlands, parks, forests, and tree canopies. Communities are using these nature-based approaches to ready themselves for and respond to problems such as flooding, degraded water quality, higher temperatures, and air pollution, all of which are worsening as a result of our changing climate.

According to leaders from the communities leading the movement to utilize natural solutions to address the new climate realities, these approaches work best as complements or alternatives to those involving traditional approaches involving more gray infrastructure, meaning concrete and steel. One type of nature-based response involves creating more green infrastructure, a term referring specifically to stormwater management that uses soils, vegetation, and natural processes to manage the quality and quantity of water. Examples include rain gar-

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Illustration courtesy of NOAA.

Ten indicators of a warming world These are just some of the indicators measured globally over many decades that show that Earth’s climate is warming. White arrows indicate increasing trends and black arrows indicate decreasing trends. All the indicators expected to increase in a warming world are, in fact, increasing, and all those expected to decrease in a warming world are decreasing.

Climate change isn’t just the future; it’s happening now.

dens, which employ basins full of water-tolerant plants to collect and remove stormwater, and green roofs, where living plants absorb rain.

Communities that have invested in nature-based responses report that these approaches have helped address multiple weather-related issues and typically cost less than gray infrastructure. In addition to the potential cost-savings associated with reduced public investments in structural responses to climate-related threats, nature-based approaches are also gaining in popularity because they provide other public benefits, including clean water, fish and wildlife habitat, economic development, and recreational opportunities.

Although traditional gray infrastructure will still be necessary to address some of the hazards created by the changing climate, urban planning

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experts recommend that communities assess how nature-based approaches can be integrated into their public works systems. They believe widespread use of nature-based installations will stem the increase in climate-altering pollution and limit our vulnerability to the effects of the extreme weather events we are already experiencing, while making the Midwest a more desirable place for people and wildlife to live.

The most recent U.S. Census found that over 45 million people live in the urban areas of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin. This is approximately 75% of the total population of the Midwest, even though cities account for only 3.9% of the total land area. For this reason, this report examines how the current and projected weather will affect urban areas and presents the best responses for keeping citizens and centers of commerce safe.

Why is the weather becoming so unfamiliar?

Photo by Sean McMenemy, Flickr.com.

The period between 2000 and 2010 was the world’s hottest decade on record, and 2012 was the hottest year ever recorded in the continental United States.

The new weather patterns are the result of increased quantities of certain gases in the earth’s atmosphere. The three most significant are carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane. These gases occur naturally. At normal levels, they, along with many other components of the atmosphere, keep the earth warm enough and wet enough for living things to thrive. Due to their role in retaining warmth, these gases are referred to as greenhouse gases. When levels of these gases rise, atmospheric and surface temperatures increase, changing the weather. This is referred to as the greenhouse effect. The relationship between rising levels of atmospheric gases and climate is a basic and well-known concept of earth science.

Concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased dramatically since the mid-1800s as a consequence of industrialization. Due to the greenhouse effect, average air and water temperatures have also risen. Since 1895, the United States has seen an average temperature increase of between 1.3°F and 1.9°F. Most of this increase has occurred since 1970. The period between 2000-2010 was the world’s hottest decade on record, and 2012 was the hottest year ever recorded in the continental United States.

An increase of a couple of degrees may not seem like much. However, this is only an average, which masks the extremely high temperatures to which the Midwest has been subjected. Researchers have long anticipated that a warming of that seemingly small magnitude would produce the changes in weather that we are already experiencing. We now know, based on actual observations, that these new climactic patterns are quickly altering the natural world on which we depend. A number of examples of these alterations appear in this report.

See http://environment.nationalgeographic. com/environment/global-warming/gw-overview-interactive/ for an excellent explanation the greenhouse effect.

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Chicago: Culture and community priorities shape action plan “Every resident can and must get involved,” urges the Chicago Climate Action Plan (CCAP).

Every agency and nongovernmental organization attempting to address the global challenge of climate change is similarly trying to engage the general public. Chicago is involving residents by creating a growing network of urban grassroots activists. In 2011, the City of Chicago entered into a partnership with the renowned Field Museum to use research to determine how best to engage citizens in both reducing greenhouse gas emissions and preparing for increasing risks.

Anthropologists from the museum’s Division of Environment, Culture, and Conservation gathered stories from neighborhood elders, catalogued cultural symbols with a connection to climate, identified historic links to land, and listened to the concerns of Chicagoans from nine different communities. The researchers assessed residents’ knowledge of climate-related issues and solutions, while also evaluating community strengths and local priorities. The study revealed that residents did not grasp why the changing climate was relevant for their families, or what their role was in slowing the change or preparing for it.

Field Museum staff used what they learned about neighborhood objectives and residents’ lack of familiarity with climate issues to build alliances with established community organizations in four very different neighborhoods. Their cultural knowledge combined with trusted local leadership drew residents to workshops to envision on-the-ground projects that would address local concerns and further Chicago’s climate goals.

For example, African-American residents of the Bronzeville neighborhood had a vision for revitalizing their community, in part through reinvigorating and promoting African traditions, including food. As Bernard Loyd, president of Urban Juncture, said in the video describing the project, “In 10 years, we envision that anyone in the Chicago area will recognize the name Bronzeville and think of it as a cultural mecca and a vibrant place to live and raise a family.”

Leaders from the Bronzeville Alliance, including Johnnie Owens, director of Community Building at Centers for New Horizons, also articulated a “deep concern for nutritional quality of life for citizens.”

The vacant lots of Bronzeville offered land on which residents could produce fresh food, particularly traditional vegetables. In addition, these green gathering places encouraged activities that strengthened community ties, including vegan cooking demonstrations, communal meals, and the creation of climate-related public art. Moreover, planting vegetation and introducing high-quality soil furthered the city’s goals. Bronzeville leaders linked the locally-grown produce to reduced emissions related to commercial agriculture and the refrigerated transportation required to bring food grown in far-flung places to Chicago.

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Abigail Derby Lewis, a conservation ecologist at The Field Museum who was very involved in the project, said that her team learned that people are moved to action by a variety of cultural triggers. According to Derby Lewis, global challenges, or even regional data, must be introduced on a neighborhood scale. Even residents who knew about melting ice and starving polar bears were at a loss to interpret what those problems meant for their families’ well-being.

Developing an understanding of community traditions and issues allowed her team to make significant grassroots progress on Chicago’s CCAP strategies.

The Field Museum’s Climate Action Toolkit2 could allow organizations in other cities to launch similar projects on a neighborhood scale, where the real public involvement in climate action will occur. As Latrice Williams of the Bronzeville Alliance Green Team said about the nexus among Bronzeville’s garden, good food, neighborhood art, and involvement in implementing the CCAP, “If you want to empower people, you have to meet them where they are.”

Illustration courtesy of Chicago Climate Action Toolkit project, The Field Museum.

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What has already changed, and what does the future hold?

Photo by Edward Stojakovic, Flickr.com.

The NCA describes the substantial changes in the climate of the Midwest since the 1800s and what scientists predict will happen in the coming decades.

What scientists have observed already: ff Minimum temperatures have increased during the winter and spring seasons. (The winter of 2013–2014 was a notable exception to the warming trend as a result of a separate weather phenomenon.) ff There has been less snow in the southern portions of the region. On the other hand, the north, especially downwind of the Great Lakes, is receiving increased snowfall each year. The winter of 2013–2014 set numerous snowfall records. For example, Cincinnati and Dayton, Ohio, each received more than 220% of their average annual snowfall. Detroit had to deal with 90.7 inches of snow, which is approximately 230% of its average snowfall.

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Increased snowfall in the north is attributed to less winter ice on the Great Lakes due to warming. Less ice allows more evaporation, which, in turn, leads to more snow. ff Nighttime temperatures in the summer are higher now than they were in the past. Mean summer temperatures have increased overall since 1900. ff The seasons have shifted. Generally, the last freeze of the spring is occurring earlier, and the first freeze in fall comes later. ff Annual precipitation has increased since about the 1930s, with more wet days and heavy storms. The most recent 2–3 decades were the wettest on record in the Midwest.

In the last five decades, the number of storms with more than 3 inches of rainfall per day more than doubled.

The changes outlined above are already affecting our communities and unique regional environ-

ment. Although one year, or even an entire decade, may be hotter or colder than another, these general trends are still consistent. The central message is that the weather will be increasingly unfamiliar, and potentially wild, relative to what we remember as normal.

Observed changes to the Great Lakes

What scientists say we can expect The amount of greenhouse gases added to the atmosphere today and in the future will determine how much more the weather will be altered. However, regardless of the level of future emissions, weather patterns in the Midwest are likely to continue the shifts we are already experiencing. For example: ff There will be shorter, milder winters and longer, hotter summers. The worst heat will occur in urbanized areas due to what is known as the urban heat island effect, caused by buildings and pavement holding warmth during the day and releasing it during the night. ff The southern parts of the Midwest should prepare for up to 25 more days per year with high temperatures of over 95°F. Even the northern areas are expected to see five more days of high heat per year. ff The Midwest will see wetter weather in December, January, and February, especially in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. The higher the future greenhouse gas emissions the bigger the increase in winter moisture.

Photo by U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service - Midwest Region.

In just a few decades (1973–2010), the Great Lakes have experienced a 71% reduction in average ice cover. Under normal, colder conditions, ice forms on the lakes and reflects sunshine, insulating the water and maintaining a low water temperature.

When the air is warmer than usual, less ice forms so there is less insulation. The larger unfrozen expanses of the Lakes absorb the sun’s energy, warming the water. Warmer water more rapidly melts the ice that does form, leading to the documented dramatic reductions in ice cover. Shallow parts of the Great Lakes with less water volume heat up more than deeper high-volume areas.

Some aquatic species need the colder water in order to survive. Furthermore, warmer water tends to benefit invasive species that compete with the ones that belong in the Great Lakes. In addition to the impacts of rising water temperature, scientists are concerned that climate change in the Midwest will harm the Great Lakes due to: ff Water-level changes outside of the normal range ff Changing storm frequency and increasing strength of storms ff Increased precipitation

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Illustration courtesy of U.S. Global Change Research Program.

Observed Change in Very Heavy Precipitation The map shows percent increases in the amount of precipitation falling in very heavy events (defined as the heaviest 1% of all daily events) from 1958 to 2012 for each region of the continental United States.

ff There will be more severe storms with rainfall of over 1 inch, and more days with 2–4 inches of rain in northern portions of the Midwest.

New weather patterns affecting the Great Lakes will produce a host of environmental and economic impacts. Modifications of the Great Lakes’ shorelines from changing water levels will affect industry, transportation, and recreation, while increasing quantities of runoff and pollution

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(both of which are discussed extensively in this report) will further stress the Great Lakes’ ability to supply clean drinking water and suitable habitat for wildlife.

What will the changing weather mean for us?

Our natural tendency to focus on the short term makes it challenging to contemplate how different life will be in the warmer, wetter Midwest.

Information from the NCA helps us to envision how our lives are likely to change. The overarching health concerns are the effects of heat waves and air pollution, water quality, and waterborne and vector-borne diseases, such as Lyme disease, which is transmitted by ticks.

This section describes a few of the notable effects of greenhouse gas pollution on the Midwest.

More complete information on these topics, and some suggested responses, appear later in this report.

The dangers of higher temperatures Effects on people—For people without access to air conditioners or those who work outside, extreme heat is a serious health hazard. During the Midwest’s infamous heat wave of July 1995—a five-day period that saw temperatures as high as 106 °F—more than 500 Chicagoans succumbed to weather-triggered afflictions.3 The heat index, which factors in humidity, indicated that on the worst day of the heat wave, it felt like the temperature was 125°F at Chicago’s Midway Airport.

Researchers predict that heat waves similar to the one in 1995 will happen in the Midwest once every two years, on average, unless the amount of atmospheric carbon and other greenhouse gases is significantly reduced. If emissions continue to increase as they have been, we could even experience periods of extreme and dangerous heat as many as three times a year. Rising levels of greenhouse gas pollution put the Midwest at risk for summer disasters similar to the devastating European heatwave of 2003, which killed more than 30,000 people. Even if heat does not contribute to mortalities, it creates medical

emergencies. Hospitals report dramatic increases in emergency room visits for not only heat stroke and dehydration but also a host of other afflictions which are exacerbated by extreme heat.

Effects on plants and animals—Temperatures that are even a few degrees warmer than normal can also have a disastrous effect on some wildlife.

Fish, amphibians, and reptiles have an especially difficult time with the warmer weather. Because they cannot internally regulate their body temperatures, they need their environment to be within their temperature tolerance range. Rainbow trout, smallmouth bass, and other fish that need cool water suffer not only from the higher water temperature but also from the lower levels of oxygen found in warmer water. When their living conditions are degraded in this way, species cannot successfully reproduce, and the current generation weakens, which can result in sudden die-offs.

The shift in seasons produced by the changing climate is causing problems for migratory wildlife, including birds and insects. Migratory species evolved over millennia to arrive when their food source is available. However, the earlier arrival of spring and later onset of autumn have sometimes created a mismatch between the timing of migration and the timing of food

Good News Chicago’s preparations for similar heat-related emergencies—including the opening of all public buildings as refuges for residents without air conditioning and an improved system for identifying and contacting housebound individuals —are credited with saving hundreds of lives during the heat waves in 2005, 2012, and 2013.

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availability. Plants grow, blossom, and produce fruit earlier in response to today’s higher temperatures. Birds, on the other hand, launch their northward journeys from Central and South America based largely on day length, which is not altered by shifts in climate.

Scientists have observed that the food on which some migrating species depend is not available when they arrive because the warm weather has

caused plants to bloom days or weeks earlier.

Other species’ reproductive cycles are now out of sync with their sources of food. (See page 12.) Such climate related mismatches can not only put additional stress on already vulnerable species, but can also disrupt important ecological processes such as pollination.

Even large mammals, such as moose, are feeling the effects of warmer weather. Researchers say

Cleveland: Moderating heat with tree canopies Cleveland does not want to be the subject of a story about a killer heat wave like Chicago’s 1995 event. Matt Gray, the director of the Mayor’s Office of Sustainability, said Cleveland’s leaders are taking steps to avoid a similar disaster.

“Extremely hot weather is at the top of our list of concerns about climate impacts,” reported Gray. “We have low income populations and elderly people who live alone, who are most at risk during a heatwave. How do we address this problem?” It is an issue for all Midwest cities.

The urban poor have less ability to escape the hot inner city, less access to a park or pool where they can cool off, and less money to pay for air conditioning that would help them survive an extended heat wave.

Gray observed that urban neighborhoods generally have relatively little greenery to shade and cool residents. Concrete and asphalt retain heat during the day and release it during the night. This compounds the health danger because there is no respite. According to Gray, Cleveland has “lost a lot of its tree canopy” to pests, storm damage, and normal aging.

As a result, the city is working to increase the number of trees as one way to protect Clevelanders from excessive heat. A federal grant to repair damage to Cleveland’s urban forest caused by the high winds of Hurricane Sandy is being used to conduct an urban canopy assessment, to evaluate Cleveland’s greenery “tree by tree.” The assessment will help the city decide what tree species to plant and where to plant them so that new trees will be able to survive the future’s higher temperatures and rejuvenate the urban forest.

Cleveland also recently adopted its Complete and Green Streets ordinance as another part of the city’s strategy to increase its urban forest and cool city residents. In contrast to the busy car-centric thoroughfares that are the urban norm, complete streets are built to accommodate bicycles and pedestrians. Offering safe and convenient alternatives to driving is an essential aspect of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Cleveland’s ordinance mandates thoroughfares that meet the needs of all its citizens and various types of plantings to fulfill its commitment to rebuilding the tree canopy as part of its climate change preparations.

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Illustration courtesy of U.S. Global Change Research Program.

Illinois’ Climate Migrates South Changes in average summer “heat index”—a measure of how hot it actually feels based on a specific combination of temperature and humidity—could strongly affect Midwesterners’ quality of life in the future. For example, the red outlines track what summers in Illinois could feel like over the course of the century under the higher-emissions scenario; the yellow outlines track what summers could feel like under the lower-emissions scenario.

that higher temperatures will drive moose out of the Midwest. They have documented declining numbers, less successful breeding, and other indications that these magnificent icons of the North Country will eventually vanish from the region. Species as varied as wild turkey, badger, opossum, and flying squirrel are being found farther and farther north as temperatures warm.

As a result, wildlife native to the Midwest may only be able to survive by relocating to areas with more suitable temperatures.

The Midwest’s relatively flat topography makes it challenging for wildlife to reach thermally suitable habitat. In mountainous areas, the cooler temperatures animals need can be found at the nearby higher elevations. A mile of elevation is equal to 800 miles of flat terrain, which means that species native to the Midwest would have to walk, swim, slither, or recede to latitudes significantly farther north to find sufficiently cool temperatures.

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A vanishing species: The Karner blue butterfly In the late 1880s, swarms of Karner blue butterflies would blanket a landscape when its food source, the blue lupine, was in bloom. Now, researchers are having trouble finding any of these beautiful and endangered insects. According to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, their numbers have decreased by 90% in the past 15 years as a consequence of both a reduction in suitable habitat and apparently now due to changing climate.4 The Karner blue appears to be an example of how climate change can impact a species that is already in trouble due to human activities.

Karner blues prefer pine barren and black oak savanna habitats, where the wild blue lupine grows. Their caterpillars eat only the lupine which grows on dry, sandy soils such as those found at Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore, one of the butterfly’s remaining refuges.

Land development and fire suppression have destroyed much of the lupine’s habitat.

Careful habitat management in a number of Great Lakes states helped increase populations of this federally-listed endangered species. However, the numbers of Karner blues plummeted in 2013. Wisconsin lost 60% of its population, Ohio lost 80%, Indiana lost 100%, and the butterfly had not been seen in Minnesota for two years. “The population is more fragile than we thought.

Illustration by Amanda Frayer.

Seeing it drop by 90% in southern Michigan was quite a shock,” said Chris Hoving of the Michigan Department of Natural Resources in a 2013 interview with The Grand Rapids Press.5 Hoving is part of a multistate Karner Blue Butterfly Recovery Team.

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Climate-related changes are thought to be the cause of this devastating die-off. Karner blue butterfly eggs are normally insulated by winter snows, but warm winters expose the eggs and cause them to dry out. “We know from past studies that the number of butterflies we see in spring is related to the amount of snow seen the previous winter,” Hoving said. In addition, hot, dry summer conditions like those in 2012 have caused the blue lupine to go dormant.

This can also lead to the butterfly’s demise because the larvae starve when they hatch. According to Hoving, heat could have killed them in their pupa as they were morphing from caterpillar to butterfly.

Researchers have discovered that warmer weather causes the Karner blues to reach adulthood more quickly, leading to smaller adults with altered reproductive patterns. Smaller Karners lay fewer eggs over the course of the entire season and try to produce an extra batch of eggs that hatch in mid- to late summer. Unfortunately, the lupine have already quit for the winter by then. Without their food, these late-hatching caterpillars are unlikely to reach adulthood.

A quick and dramatic decline can result because the number of adults laying eggs in the fall is greatly diminished. They are like tiny blue canaries in the coal mine of climate change.

Fish can potentially move to deeper, cooler water, but the depth of the body of water in which they live limits that flexibility. However, small amphibians and reptiles that need air, such as frogs and turtles, can neither go deeper nor travel significant distances. The parks, preserves, and open spaces that protect our fish and wildlife are often isolated from other such refuges by development, making it difficult for even fairly mobile creatures to escape the heat. The combination of heat, human impacts on remaining wild lands that shelter wildlife, and lack of escape routes greatly limits the potential for animals to relocate in response to rising temperatures.

Reducing the Midwest’s exposure to the effects of a changing climate won’t guarantee moose will stay in Minnesota or ensure that valuable commercial species such as white oak will continue to grow in Illinois. However, we can help species survive by keeping their options open. In order for living things to move to cooler locations, they need safe paths to travel. Kimberly R. Hall of The Nature Conservancy’s Michigan chapter says in the NCA that connectivity is the key to survival for many native Midwestern plants and

The parks, preserves, and open spaces that protect our fish and wildlife are often isolated from other such refuges by development, making it difficult for even fairly mobile creatures to escape the heat. animals. In order for species to migrate to places where the temperatures and habitat are suitable, she recommends “improving connectivity by restoring natural habitats in areas where key connections have been lost.” In addition, Hall recommends that public agencies modify their land management strategies so their lands can accommodate transitioning species’ needs.

As the climate of the Midwest becomes more like that of the South, this region will be an increasingly inhospitable place for some of our native wildlife. On the other hand, the Midwest will be increasingly hospitable for numerous species whose range was formerly limited by its severely cold winters. Some unwelcome species—such as

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the white-footed mouse, which is a key host for the ticks that carry Lyme disease—could become real pests.6 Cases of West Nile virus, which is transmitted by a specific species of mosquito, are increasing in the Midwest as a result of the warmer, wetter climate. Heat speeds up the mosquito’s life cycle.

This results in more breeding cycles and more mosquitoes to transmit the virus. (For more information about climate change and pests see http://www.nwf.org/News-and-Magazines/ Media-Center/Reports/Archive/2014/08-122014-Ticked-Off-The-Outdoor-Experience.aspx.)

Water—too much and too little Floods like the deluge that hit Milwaukee in July 2010 and caused over $28.5 million in damage in Milwaukee County,7 reinforce scientists’ predictions about the increased frequency of severe storms and the overall increase in rainfall.

More extreme weather means not only increasing heavy precipitation events but also increasingly frequent and prolonged dry spells, like the one in the summer of 2012. Because most agriculture in this region is rainfed, the Midwest’s farmers and farming economy are highly vulnerable to summer drought.

Rising risk of water contamination Sources of our public drinking water are frequently contaminated when nature delivers too much water too quickly. Chemicals, bacteria, and micro-organisms in runoff from factories, streets, parking lots, lawns, and farms enter the water supplies. Old water treatment facilities often handle both sewage and stormwater. When the sheer volume of water associated with major storms exceeds the capacities of these facilities, polluted water is diverted directly into waterways from which many communities draw their drinking water.

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Drinking water quality is especially threatened when heavy rainfall flushes large quantities of agricultural fertilizers and sewage into the water.

This nutrient influx causes excessive growth of algae. Some algae species produce toxins, causing “harmful algal blooms” in the Great Lakes ecosystem that threaten drinking water, fisheries, and recreation. In 2014, Toledo, Ohio, had a water emergency when a toxic algae bloom contaminated the city’s water supply and made it unsafe to drink.

According to Barbara Liukkonen, a coordinator at the University of Minnesota’s Water Resources Center, drinking water from private wells is frequently exposed to contamination from bacteria or parasites as a result of flooding. 8 Because homes that are not connected to public utilities do not have advanced filtration and their owners rarely test for contaminants, Liukkonen says that rural residents are at greater risk from unsafe water from increased flooding.

Over 40 million people rely on the Great Lakes for their drinking water. The Lakes also serve Midwesterners and visitors alike with more than 500 beaches and a huge spectrum of water-based recreation and businesses.

Severe weather can also cause large-scale, extended power outages that shut down water treatment plants or force them to operate on a reduced scale, meaning they cannot adequately clean and filter drinking water or raw sewage.

Both situations create public health risks. In a 2012 interview published on Cleveland.com, Frank Greenland of the Northeast Ohio Regional Sewer District said, “The overflow of raw sewage to area waterways is a huge problem.”9

Washtenaw County, Michigan: Preventing problems can pay off There is a new Water Resource Commissioner in Washtenaw County, Michigan, who has some new ideas about how to handle the higher amounts of rain produced by southeast Michigan’s changing climate. His name is Evan Pratt, and his ideas are at the core of new guidelines referred to as the Water Commissioner’s Design Criteria (WCDC). The WCDC aims to address the commissioner’s responsibility for both water quality and quantity for most of the water courses in the county. That means reducing runoff, which will reduce the frequency of floods that erode local streams and lead to poor water quality; slowing stream flows; increasing the wide fluctuations in stream flow that destroy habitat for aquatic life, even if the water is clean; and increasing the amount of water available to recharge groundwater levels.

Pratt summarized the criteria by saying, “If you are trying to simulate pre-development [drainage] conditions, just infiltrate!” The design criteria will require area developers and municipal planners in the county’s 27 cities, villages, and townships to install a variety of types of systems that hold stormwater and increase the amount that can soak into the ground.

This is known as infiltration and will be accomplished using several forms of green infrastructure. It is not a surprise that developers are targets of Pratt’s initiative. What is a surprise, in light of developers’ normal unhappiness with any new regulation, is that Pratt believes that they are going to like the WCDC, after they become familiar with it.

In his former life Pratt, who is a licensed Professional Engineer, was a consultant to developers seeking permits and served on the Ann Arbor Planning Commission. He said, “[I’ve]… probably seen 2,000 site plans in my time, of which I’ve closely studied 700 to 800 of them.”

Pratt has observed that “developers have their plans shot down for flooding concerns” when neighbors assert that additional building will exacerbate runoff problems. “We want to feel confident that our regulations will be defensible from an engineering perspective,” said Pratt.

Another benefit, from Pratt’s perspective, is that development plans created using those specifications will be more able to survive legal challenges.

In addition to increasing the predictability of the development process by specifying what is required and avoiding plan denials, Pratt thought Washtenaw developers will usually save money on projects that meet the new criteria. He asked, “What costs more, a big pipe or a little one? A big hole or a small hole? Curb or no curb?” In other words, because of its emphasis on using nature-based approaches, land development, done in accordance with the WCDC will cost less because there will be less dirt to move and less stormwater plumbing to build—provided it is a good site. Pratt was quick to acknowledge that properties with high groundwater levels and unsuitable soil will have to be modified, potentially at considerable expense, to meet the criteria. To land buyers, he recommended, “Spend money on soil analysis; know what you have and whether it is a good, developable site.”

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Pratt pointed out that green infrastructure, such as stream buffers and swales that increase infiltration, may also meet local park and open space dedication requirements for residential subdivisions. Traditional stormwater retention ponds generally do not count toward those requirements. Similarly, many municipalities have landscape ordinances that demand specific numbers of trees and other plantings be part of landscape designs for parking lots, streets, and sidewalks. Rain gardens could take the place of the ubiquitous planted islands surrounded by asphalt. “Developers can nest landscaping and stormwater requirements,” said Pratt. He predicted that savvy developers with good sites will “end up with more land for development” as a result of that double counting of required land dedications.

Traditional stormwater retention methods are still allowable under the new criteria, but only if the developer demonstrates he cannot install infiltration. He can “dig a hole,” in Pratt’s words, but in order to meet the water commissioner’s mandate, it will be a big one.

The lakes, ponds, and rivers where we fish, boat, and swim also suffer from the same types and sources of pollution that threaten the sources of our drinking water. Runoff and sewage spills are particularly worrisome in the Great Lakes. Analysis of the water quality at beaches in 30 states, conducted by the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) in 2012, revealed that five out of the 10 states with the dirtiest beaches were in the Great Lakes watershed.10 The more rain we get,

Farm runoff is thought to be the source of the largest U.S. outbreak of waterborne disease. In 1993, severe spring storms transported water contaminated by dairy cow manure into Lake Michigan, the source of Milwaukee’s drinking water. Although Milwaukee had two water treatment facilities, the protozoan parasite Cryptosporidium killed more than 100 people, sickened 400,000, and resulted in $37 million in lost wages and productivity. According to scientists, Cryptosporidium is spread “through the fecal-oral route, often through contaminated water.”11

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the more beach closures we will encounter, along with sewage backups, road washouts, electrical outages, and other unpleasant or dangerous outcomes.

Milwaukee: Taking action (without talking about climate change) The 11 commissioners of the Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District (MMSD) are climate change “believers,” according to MMSD’s director, Kevin Shafer. The Milwaukee area has incurred $100 million in flood damage over the years. Since 2008, there have been three storms of such a magnitude as only occurs once every 75–100 years, on average. Nevertheless, Shafer reported that MMSD’s “…constituents are not convinced about climate change.”

Despite constituents’ convictions, the agency is a leader in preparing for anticipated future weather patterns.

MMSD’s Vision 2035 document, Green Infrastructure Plan, and H2Ocapture.com—the district’s educational website—are all evidence that the district is serious about adaptation. How did MMSD secure sufficient public support for its extensive adaptation initiatives? Not by talking about climate change.

“We are making the region a better place to live,” stated Shafer. “There is no need to focus on climate change adaptation in our communications.”

He explained that the public benefits of MMSD’s efforts to create a resilient waste water management system that protects Lake Michigan are the “selling points” for area taxpayers.

Illustration by Amanda Frayer.

“The public wants the district to be efficient. Our combination of gray and green infrastructure saves money and saves Lake Michigan. The aesthetics of plantings and greenways are an added bonus.

Our investments are improving the quality of life by improving air and water quality,” said Shafer.

Shafer recommended that his counterparts in other agencies and other municipal leaders “not lead with climate-based conversation. You will be more successful if you focus on the larger mission and then do the right thing.”

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Lorain, Ohio: Climate-smart river restoration

Photo courtesy of Ohio Environmental Protection Agency.

Black River Before

Lorain, Ohio’s out-of-date wastewater treatment plant, a massive pile of slag from the era when Ohio’s backbone was made of steel, and a river designated as “impaired” by the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency might not seem like the makings of an opportunity.

But Corey Timko, the former Utilities Director for the City of Lorain, saw the beginning of a community renaissance when he surveyed his domain.

“I was thinking comprehensively about my role and Lorain’s infrastructure,” Timko recalled.

“We had water issues, both in terms of supply and flooding, and a wastewater treatment plant that was well beyond its useful life, located in the middle of town, right at the Black River.

That isn’t where you want it, for many reasons.”

Timko and his staff looked for ways to address Lorain’s existing water issues, which were worsening as a consequence of today’s bigger storms. They Photo courtesy of Ohio Environmental Protection Agency. needed a large tract of land outside of town for a modern Black River After facility that could handle the increasing quantities of rain Ohio is getting. The polluted legacy of the local steel industry meant that Timko had site options. “We looked at brownfields as places where we could achieve multiple positive local impacts,” he said. Timko saw an opporContinued on the next page...

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tunity for Lorain to shed its image as a former steel town and morph into a place known for “…caring about quality of life.”

The “new Lorain” envisioned by Timko would have a treatment plant that released effluent of “nearly drinking-water quality that would have a positive impact on the river, giving clear water to a muddy river,” benefitting fish, and improving Lake Erie. When a bankrupt steel company offered the city 310 contaminated acres of what Timko called “wasteland,” right on the shores of the Black River, he had the key ingredient for his recipe for Lorain’s future success.

“Everyone had a reason to support the project. It wasn’t a tree-hugger deal. We were upgrading essential infrastructure, creating jobs, being good stewards of the land by bringing the river back to its 1904 condition and reintroducing species,” explained Timko. “This is how you fix problems in the modern age. You don’t have to have one or the other. You can have both,” he said, referring to what can sometimes seem like a conflict between traditional infrastructure and a nature-based approach. “Someone poorly designed a project if you only have one and not the other.”

Having something for everyone allowed Lorain to attract funding from a variety of sources and underwrite different elements of the project. With the assistance of the National Wildlife Federation, the restoration work was designed to prepare for warmer temperatures and increased water volume. For example, fish habitat shelves installed at different depths provide shelter in times of both high and low water levels. Large boulders positioned in the rehabilitated river slow water flow and protect newly established aquatic life, even during big storms.

Today, the living wetlands in the floodplain slow and filter runoff. Restored upland riparian habitat replaced the slag pile that used to loom over the eroded riverbank. Schools of fish are returning. A heron rookery is thriving, and nature is taking hold along one-and-half miles of the Black River just above its confluence of Lake Erie.

The new Lorain has not yet emerged, but the city now has a large and strategic property to use as the cornerstone of redevelopment, as well as the ideal site for a new treatment plant.

Although Timko is no longer with the City of Lorain, his vision manifests in the redeveloped brownfield and a cleaner river. Timko’s strategy of bringing together the supporters of both gray and green infrastructure as part of a climate-smart solution to a variety of urban issues can be a model for many of the Great Lakes’ cities. When the waters rise and warm in the Black River, his legacy will be clear.

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Climate change and changing land uses Changing the ways we use land can either reduce or increase the intensity of climate change and its effects on our communities. Scientists analyze a landscape by examining two factors: land use and land cover. Land use refers to the activities taking place there, such as farming, grazing, or logging. Land cover refers to the natural features and artificial structures that blanket the earth’s surface, such as forests, grasslands, open water, pavement, or buildings.

According to the NCA, changes in both land use and land cover affect climate change processes at the local, regional, and even the global level.

The choices we make about land often have unintended consequences that have either negative or positive effects on our vulnerability to the risks associated with extreme weather.

Natural lands such as wetlands, forests, and prairies have tremendous value to society, protecting us from some of the worst effects of extreme weather while providing important services and saving communities money. One of the most important characteristics of these lands is their ability to absorb and store carbon, which scientists call carbon sequestration.

In contrast, converting natural lands to human uses contributes to climate change in two ways: first, by releasing sequestered carbon into the atmosphere, and second, by diminishing or eliminating that landscape’s potential to absorb and sequester additional carbon in the future.

The authors of the NCA conclude that the extensive alteration and conversion of the Midwest’s natural systems that has already occurred make the region especially likely to suffer from warmer weather and the associated problems described in this report.

Asphalt and concrete absorb sunlight and re-radiate it as heat. When natural lands are

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developed, construction activities produce greenhouse gases. Development on the urban outskirts requires people to drive longer distances and use more fuel, which also contributes to global warming and warmer weather.

Protecting and restoring natural land cover is a good strategy to protect us against climate change. In addition to absorbing and storing carbon, natural lands and vegetation can also directly moderate the effects of a changing climate.

For example, trees, shrubs, and grasses cool their surroundings by absorbing or reflecting sunlight and shading the ground. Shade also reduces water temperatures, which helps fish and other aquatic species thrive.

Natural land cover also protects us from the impacts of climate change in other ways. For example, as we face increasingly large and intense storms, natural lands will help moderate the impact of heavy rains by allowing water to soak into the ground more easily, whereas development involves installation of impermeable surfaces that often lead to flooding. In addition, the root systems of trees, grasses, and other vegetation hold soil in place during rainstorms, preventing erosion and the costly damage it can cause to roads, bridges, homes, and other human-made features.

Unfortunately, people often look at natural lands simply as impediments to economic growth, not recognizing the many protections and services they provide. A good example is wetlands, which in some parts of the Midwest have been virtually eliminated. Indeed, as much as 90% has already been drained, filled, and converted to other uses. Wetlands soak up rains and release them over time, providing local systems with a hedge against droughts and protecting downstream communities from flooding. And while most of us know that wetlands provide habitat for fish

Illustration courtesy of Cuyahoga County Planning Commission.

Fewer people, five times more developed land In the Midwest, urban sprawl has replaced much of our forests, prairies, wetlands, and other natural landscapes with roads and parking lots, buildings and lawns, especially since the end of World War II. While some development is necessary to meet the needs of a growing population, land use in the Midwest has changed far in excess of those needs. For example, in Cuyahoga County, Ohio, which includes Cleveland, total population decreased between 1950 and 2000, yet developed acreage doubled. Even more startling, low-density land use outside city limits expanded by a factor of five over the same time frame.

and wildlife, we often don’t realize that they contribute to public health (and that of the surrounding countryside) by absorbing chemicals, filtering pollutants and sediments, and breaking down harmful bacteria. As they do, they serve as natural filtration systems for the aquifers and surface waters that supply our drinking water.

When wetlands are removed, the many services they provide must ultimately be paid for with costly man-made systems.

experiencing. To counteract these effects, the NCA authors recommend “modifying the way cities are built and organized to reduce energy and motorized transportation demands, and altering agricultural management practices to increase carbon storage in soil.”

According to the authors of the NCA report, zoning and other land-use decisions made by elected officials and government agencies, and the way that private and public landowners manage their properties, substantially influence the amount of greenhouse gases we produce as well as our vulnerability to the other impacts we are already

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The economic costs of our changing Midwest climate Think about the financial and emotional havoc wrought by the severe storm in 2012—known as a derecho—that struck Ohio and Indiana on its way to the east coast and caused $4 billion in damage.

Likewise, in 2008, when the Cedar River crested more than 11 feet above the previous record, the flooding in Cedar Rapids, Iowa inflicted damages valued at close to $10 billion. These are just a couple of examples of the big financial costs associated with the extreme weather that scientists are predicting will occur.

Responding to extreme weather is expensive.

Investments that prepare our communities for these new weather conditions, especially those that integrate nature-based approaches, will almost certainly be more cost-effective in the long term. In fact, Midwestern cities, such as Milwaukee, Ann Arbor, and Grand Rapids, are proactive in reducing their vulnerability, in part to limit the future expense associated with both weather-related disasters and the damage to the regional economy. Their investments can avoid future damage, while creating jobs and protecting or even improving our environment.

Business leaders recognize how costly the new weather patterns will be for many parts of the Midwest’s economy. The NCA summarizes how a warmer Midwest that experiences more severe weather will impact regional tourism, agriculture, forestry, shipping, and finance. A few examples include: ff The predicted loss of most winter sports, except in the farthest north, due to lack of snow. ff Reduced desirability of fishing and hunting when populations of game shrink, due to lack of suitable habitat.

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In 2012, Lake Scientist reported “In some areas of the Midwest, river and lake temperatures have been at or above 100°F (38°C). The high temperatures are blamed for many fish kills and economic losses. In Iowa, for example, 37,000 sturgeon worth $10 million were recently found dead due to water temperatures of 97°F.”12

ff Diminished viability of the timber industry as valuable species, such as oak and maple, are weakened or become relatively rare. ff Impacts on barge traffic and all of the industries that move products by rivers due to lower-than-normal water levels during the hotter, drier summers (such as the one in 2012 when the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers were drying up). Experts anticipate that transportation companies will lose hundreds of millions of dollars.13 The forests, fish, birds, mammals, and other wildlife that make the Midwest unique are also major contributors to the economy. In Minnesota alone, activities such as hunting, fishing, bird-watching, and wildlife photography attracted 2.5 million participants who spent a combined total of $3.9 billion in 2011.14 Think about where you go for vacation and the activities you enjoy throughout the four seasons. How will those places and experiences be impacted by the warmer, wetter future when species that require cool temperatures are no longer part of the picture?

Of all the anticipated climate-related financial losses, agriculture is especially vulnerable.

Among the risks:

Illustration courtesy of the Natural Resources Defense Council.

“Overall, the insurance industry estimates that 2012 was the second-costliest year in U.S. history for climate-related disasters, with more than $139 billion in damages. But private insurers themselves covered only about 25% of these costs ($33 billion), leaving the federal government and its public insurance enterprises to pay for the majority of the remaining claims.” Excerpted from Who Pays for Climate Change?, Natural Resources Defense Council, Daniel Lashof, Andy Stevenson, May 2013.

ff Weather affects the quantity and quality of crops. Recent data indicates that the nutritional value of corn decreases when it is grown in atmospheric conditions with more carbon dioxide, similar to those anticipated in the Midwest’s future.15 ff More precipitation in the spring and fall means that farmers have to manage more water during seasons when crops don’t need it.

They will have to invest in additional drainage systems to keep their fields dry.

ff Crops are easily damaged by temperatures outside of their ideal growing range. The hotter summers of the past decade have reduced yields of corn and other important Midwest products. ff Increased applications of fertilizers, herbicides, and insecticides to counteract weather-induced stresses cost farmers more. ff The Midwest’s important role as a global source of crops means that extended droughts could lead to significant increases in world commodity and food prices.

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Baltimore: Preparing every family Cities working to protect their citizens from the spectrum of weather-related threats are always searching for the best mechanism for telling people at risk how to prepare and respond. For example, during heat waves, emergency management personnel struggle with the challenge of identifying and reaching housebound or isolated individuals who are in the greatest danger, especially the elderly, ill, or very young.

Photo by Chris Marchant, Flickr.com.

In June 2012, severe weather swept across the Midwest and inflicted hurricane-like damage in Fort Wayne, Indiana, and Columbus, Ohio. The same storm slammed Baltimore, Maryland, before moving out over the Atlantic.

Winds in excess of 80 miles per hour destroyed property and blew down trees all along its path, producing major power outages from Chicago to the East Coast. According to Kristin Baja, of Baltimore’s Office of Sustainability, damage to Baltimore’s electrical infrastructure was so severe and so many streets were blocked by downed trees that some residents were without power for 16 days. This also occurred during a heat wave, when temperatures in the 90s produced widespread excessive heat warnings. Baja finds that the 2012 experience makes city residents receptive to outreach about personal preparedness: “They have seen the intensity and severity of hazards. They felt helpless. They want help.”

While the city is preparing on a comprehensive scale, staff and local leaders are helping individuals, families, and neighborhoods to be ready. “We are telling residents exactly what they need to do,” said Baja. “Make a plan. Build a kit. Help each other.”

Baltimoreans recently attended the Sustainability Town Hall, during which they received coaching on preparedness. City staff helped attendees create their own Family Emergency Plan and distributed items for their Emergency Preparedness Kits, including flashlights and batteries, crank-powered radios, fans, face masks, can openers, and a SAFE/NEED HELP window sign to communicate with would-be rescuers. All of the instructions for developing a plan and a kit are online at www.baltimorehazards.wordpress.com.

As part of the city’s commitment to helping citizens deal with extreme weather, transportation to the sustainability event was provided to bring people who might otherwise not have been able to participate. The gathering was just the start of Baltimore’s personal preparation campaign. Neighborhoods can request their own local version of the event in order to build their own capacity to ready themselves. Baja reported that 23 communities had already asked the city to help them prepare. Creating very local networks and knowledge will help Baltimore recover and thrive as it faces an unfamiliar climate.

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Reducing emissions reduces risks As the case studies in this report illustrate, local and regional governments, nonprofit organizations, and businesses across the U.S. recognize the risks posed by the significant alterations to weather patterns we are experiencing. They are investing in a spectrum of responses to reduce climate change’s impacts on our communities. In addition to their work to minimize vulnerabilities, these leaders are also reducing their entities’ greenhouse gas emissions. They recognize the direct link between the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the costly threats of climate change. These leaders are acting now because they want to be part of the movement to stem and reverse the damage to the earth’s atmosphere. Individuals can also make a difference in the future levels of greenhouse gases.

At home and at work There are many simple changes that anyone can make at home to save energy, save money, and help conserve life on Earth, too. The primary purpose of this report is to provide information about, and inspiration for, community actions.

However, every individual, family, and group has a role to play in lowering the amount of greenhouse gas pollution, thereby decreasing our collective exposure to extreme weather. An excellent list of individual actions can be found at http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/wycd/.

Below are just a few suggestions to get you started.

Whenever possible, use public transportation or, better yet, ride a bike or walk. Cars and trucks are major sources of the pollution damaging the air we breathe and the atmosphere that determines our weather.

In the Midwest, most of the electricity comes from coal-burning power plants, which produce high levels of pollution and carbon. Anything

that can be done to reduce electricity use is therefore a step in the right direction. Using less energy will save money, too. Download “Saving Money by Saving Energy” (http://energy.gov/ energysaver/articles/energy-saver-guide-tipssaving-money-and-energy-home) for many more ways to reduce your carbon footprint.

The role of cities According to the UN-Habitat program, “Cities are major contributors to climate change: although they cover less than 2% of Earth’s surface, cities consume 78% of the world’s energy and produce more than 60% of all carbon dioxide and significant amounts of other greenhouse gas emissions, mainly through energy generation, vehicles, industry, and biomass use.” 16 These high percentages are understandable because human population is concentrated in the planet’s urban areas. Cities are regional and global transport hubs, economic centers, and locations of the industries that power the global economy.

Several studies have revealed that although a large percentage of greenhouse gases comes from urban areas, the quantity per person is much lower than the emissions of rural or suburban residents. Urban dwellers tend to use public transportation and therefore burn far less oil. In cities, most people live in multi-level buildings, which are more compact and energy-efficient, and avoid further destruction of natural lands.

Cities can lead the movement to reduce greenhouse gas pollution and prepare for new weather patterns. One way is through urban design, which works with nature to minimize carbon emissions.

In fact, the Midwest could be a model for urban areas everywhere by creating inviting, walkable, energy-efficient cities that are ready for the anticipated changes to Midwest climate. Mayors are already taking the lead in cities around the

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Cleveland: Locally grown food reduces city’s carbon footprint The local-food movement is helping to reduce carbon emissions while also contributing to better-tasting meals. When your apple is a sweet crisp apple grown in the Midwest instead of one from Washington, Chile, or China, you enjoy a fresh product while reducing your daily carbon footprint. Locally grown food is gaining in popularity as forward-looking cities work to reduce their emissions and prepare for new weather patterns. For years, chefs have sought out local produce because of the freshness and flavor found in recently harvested products.

Individuals who want to reduce greenhouse gases are joining the local movement because of the amount of fossil fuel required to grow and transport food from thousands of miles away.

Cleveland is counting on locally grown food to help meet its goal of reducing the city’s carbon emissions by 40% over the next 15 years.

Obtaining fruit, vegetables, meat, and dairy from nearby sources increases a city’s self-sufficiency. Matt Gray, director of the Cleveland Mayor’s Office of Sustainability, said it makes sense to reduce residents’ reliance on groceries that have to be shipped from other areas.

Self-reliance is a good adaptation strategy, Gray pointed out, because Cleveland will be more able to feed its residents in the event of transportation issues or power grid failures.

Urban gardens offer the ultimate example in local eating because food is grown right in the neighborhood where it will be served. In addition, residents are able to grow healthy food, which is often in short supply in low-income neighborhoods. Gardens also become green, safe oases for community gatherings, educational opportunities for children, and connection with nature. In Cleveland, urban gardens play a significant role in job creation and redevelopment, in addition to a response to climate change.

In 2012, Green City Growers opened a huge hydroponic greenhouse on Cleveland’s east side, in a neighborhood referred to as the Kinsman EcoDistrict. The EcoDistrict is an area designated by the city to experiment with methods for reducing emissions while engaging residents in responding to climate change. Green City Growers is a project of Evergreen Cooperatives, a for-profit, employee-owned venture launched with the support of many partners, including the City of Cleveland.

The Kinsman neighborhood is being rejuvenated by investments in local food production.

Green City Growers’ greenhouse produces primarily high-quality salad greens which are sold throughout the area. Nearly 100 neighborhood residents are employed at the facility. Vacant land where derelict houses and abandoned factories once stood is being transformed into farms, greenhouses, orchards, and composting facilities. Fresh produce is sold at local markets, providing residents with new, healthy eating options while combatting climate change at the same time.

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country. In his 2014 “State of the City” address, George Heartwell, the mayor of Grand Rapids, Michigan, said, “While climate change deniers were babbling on the airwaves, we were quietly going about our work of becoming a more resilient community with better transit, more energy efficient government buildings, improved bicycle facilities, and green infrastructure to address stormwater runoff. Every city is, or should be, looking at the impacts of climate change now and into the future. Future generations of Grand Rapidians will look back on this time with gratitude for the farsightedness of our city.”

Cincinnati’s Green Cincinnati Plan has helped that city reduce its carbon emissions by 8% between 2008 and 2012. You can find a list of practical mitigation techniques that elected officials can adopt in the handbook available from ICLEI-Local Governments for Sustainability: http://www.icleiusa. org/action-center/planning/climate-action-handbook.

Growing Lots Urban Farm near Downtown Minneapolis Photo by Michael Pursell.

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Carmel, Indiana: Climate-smart development brings economic and political success Under the leadership of Mayor James Brainerd, Carmel, Indiana, is responding to climate change by reducing the city’s carbon emissions. The city is using hybrid vehicles, providing electric car charging stations, planting lots of trees, creating bike lanes to make roads more commuter-friendly, and constructing a water treatment plant that uses geothermal and solar power.

Carmel is a suburb of Indianapolis, but BrainPhoto by Serge Melki, Flickr.com. erd’s efforts are making it into a center of employment, entertainment, and life. In interviews with Bloomberg.com17 and ICLEI–Local Govern18 ments for Sustainability, formerly known as International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives, the mayor expressed his conviction that Carmel’s focus on sustainability is what is attracting business and residents. Its zoning encourages high-density, mixed-use development. Streets are designed to welcome pedestrians and encourage people to limit their driving.

Brainerd said his constituents are worried about the public health impacts of climate change.

Carmel has cleaned up its air and helped residents reduce their carbon emissions by installing more traffic roundabouts than any other U.S. city, cutting down on inefficient automobile idling and the braking and accelerating necessary with conventional traffic lights.

Through annexation and development, Carmel’s population rose from 37,733 to almost 86,000 between 2000 and 2014. The town’s median household income is $107,505. National businesses that have established branches in Carmel in recent years have brought hundreds of new jobs. Carmel City Center, the new downtown constructed as part of Brainerd’s vision for an inviting and environmentally sound community, has a performing arts center and lots of cooling greenery. Unlike so many other urban centers, Carmel’s new walkable city core, with more than 450 houses and apartments, keeps people downtown at night, patronizing restaurants and other businesses.

In the Bloomberg.com interview, Brainerd observed that in past decades young people looking for jobs left Carmel for other places where they found work. He believes that the current generation of professionals gives greater consideration to what type of community they are seeking when they decide where they want to live. “If they don’t want to go to your city, you’re finished,” he said. “We’ve focused on good design as a way to be economically competitive.”

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How communities can prepare It will be difficult for cities to maintain the services on which residents rely if they are unprepared for the changing weather. Cities in the Midwest are showing how the region can reduce the effects of extreme weather on their communities by identifying the current and future climate impacts they are facing and developing strategies to respond and prepare for these impacts through a process called climate adaptation.

The definition of climate adaptation: The process of implementing strategies specifically designed to prepare for and adjust to climate change impacts. Adaptation actions may be anticipatory (actions that prepare for known or potential future impacts) or reactive (actions that respond to impacts already realized).19

Some of the most effective adaptation approaches rely on the way nature purifies water, protects areas from flooding, and keeps temperatures cooler. The leaders of nature-based projects have found them to be cost effective complements to gray infrastructure, which refers to the concrete used for dams, pipes, curbs, breakwaters, and other structures commonly employed to lessen weather impacts. (See case studies on pages 17 and 30.) Beyond helping communities adapt and build resilience to climate change, nature-based approaches produce additional benefits in the form of lowered greenhouse gas emissions, jobs, economic revitalization, and habitat for a variety of fish, birds, and other animals.

Infrastructure upgrades and improvements Our roads, bridges, power plants, stormwater pipes, sewage treatment facilities, water filtration, public buildings, and other infrastructure were constructed to withstand wind, rain, and snow. Data regarding the quantity of precipitation and the strength and frequency of storms was used to determine the necessary durability and effectiveness of these structures. However, much of the data is outdated and at least four decades old. One important way that we can limit the effect of future weather on our communities is to look ahead and use up-to-date forecasts from the NCA and other sources to inform new construction standards.

Some of the risks and costs described above can only be reduced through new technology or traditional system upgrades like the massive tunnels that Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District built to handle downpours of a quantity unimaginable just decades ago (see case study on page 30). Investments in gray infrastructure of this magnitude typically require many years to design, fund, and build.

Nature-based approaches, such as the green infrastructure being installed by the Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District, augment existing and future stormwater management systems and can be implemented at relatively low cost, compared to the much greater costs associated with gray infrastructure projects. Plus, projects that replicate nature’s methods of managing and filtering stormwater can be tackled at almost any scale, from household to whole watershed.

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Milwaukee: Going green to save green…and the Lake Protecting Lake Michigan from Milwaukee-area pollution is the job of the Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District (MMSD). It’s a big job. The MMSD handles wastewater from a 411-square-mile area, encompassing seven watersheds in 28 municipalities. Notably, 91 square miles—nearly one-quarter of that area—is impervious surface, even though there is still a substantial amount of agricultural land remaining. When it rains, MMSD is responsible for treating water that drains off of agricultural lands, roads, roofs, and parking lots before it reaches Lake Michigan. Milwaukee Water Works draws drinking water for 860,000 people from Lake Michigan, 20 so keeping it clean is more than a nice idea. It is an urgent health imperative.

“Thinking about intense events that can overwhelm our systems and result in overflows keeps me up at night,” said Kevin Shafer, the district’s executive director. He has good reason to worry. Shafer reported that in 2008, 2009, and 2010 the Milwaukee region suffered from Photo by Kenny Louie, Flickr.com. major storms. According to Shafer, the 2010 storm had the distinction of being a 700-year event, meaning that a storm of that severity would be expected to occur only once in 700 years. “The weather is definitely changing. In the last 10 years, it has become more extreme, which puts more pressure on our systems. The future? What will it bring?” Shafer wondered.

MMSD has already installed huge tunnels, hundreds of feet underground. These tunnels can store 521 million gallons of stormwater until it can be treated. That sounds like an enormous quantity until Shafer pointed out that “one inch of rain in our area equals 7.1 billion gallons of water.”

Shafer’s vision, which was adopted by the 11-member commission that governs the MMSD, is to capture the first half inch of rainfall using green infrastructure. In 2013, the commission adopted a detailed Regional Green Infrastructure Plan that describes MMSD’s strategies for adding 740 million gallons of storage using nature-based methods to help achieve its goals of no sewage overflows or backups. Bioswales, rain gardens, permeable streets and parking lots, rain barrels, and other green infrastructure elements will “work with our gray infrastructure so the systems supplement each other,” explained Shafer.

Substantial green infrastructure investments by MMSD are making a difference. In addition to its district-scale efforts, MMSD also has programs that engage individuals and businesses by distributing rain barrels and underwriting installation of rain gardens. In an interview in May 2014 Shafer proudly observed, and the MMSD website announced on its home page, there had been no overflows so far that year.

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Green infrastructure According to the Environmental Protection Agency’s definition, green infrastructure uses vegetation, soils, and natural processes to manage rainwater and create healthier environments. In urban areas it is most often associated with approaches that can be built, such as green roofs, which feature growing vegetation, and rain gardens; replacing asphalt and concrete with permeable paving; and planting trees. These methods collect rain where it hits the ground and allow the water to soak into the soil, as opposed to running directly into sewers or water bodies. Green infrastructure can also refer to the natural lands that provide similar benefits, such as a large tract of undeveloped forestland. The dispersed and natural techniques of green infrastructure reduce stormwater runoff and flooding, improving the health of area waterways.

The Center for Neighborhood Technology (CNT), based in Chicago, conducted extensive research into the benefits of green infrastructure. Its publication, titled The Value of Green Infrastructure: A Guide to Recognizing Its Economic, Environmental and Social Benefits, is an excellent primer on nature-based techniques for managing stormwater (http://www.cnt. org/resources/the-value-of-green-infrastructure-a-guide-to-recognizing-its-economic-environmental-and-social-benefits/).

LaCrosse, Wisconsin; Cleveland, Ohio; and North St. Paul, Minnesota, are among the Midwestern cities that require new or reconstructed thoroughfares to be made from permeable paving and incorporate other green stormwater management features. Permeable paving can be any one of a number of porous materials, including specially prepared concrete and asphalt that have larger openings between each grain to allow water to pass through. The Southeast Michigan Council of Governments’ Great Lakes, Green Streets Guidebook contains numerous case studies that demonstrate how communities in the

Illustration by Amanda Frayer.

Midwest are using these approaches (http://city. milwaukee.gov/ImageLibrary/Groups/cityGreenTeam/Stormwater/GLGIGuidebook_web. pdf). All three of these cities’ ordinances also require streets to be designed to achieve other sustainability objectives, which make it easier for residents to walk, ride a bicycle, and use public transportation.

As described in the case study on page 30, the Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District (MMSD), the City of Milwaukee and the 27 other municipalities in the area are relying on green infrastructure on a broad scale to handle rain “where it falls.” The Regional Green Infrastructure Plan (http://www.freshcoast740.com/ GI-Plan.aspx) explains the district’s approach in this way: “Building bigger pipes will not solve our problem,” referring to the increasing quantities of rainwater. MMSD also has found that nature’s methods of addressing rain save money. The plan

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Baltimore: Keeping buildings out of harm’s way Kristin Baja didn’t wish for the deluge in Baltimore on April 30, 2014, but it definitely made her job of promoting preparedness a little easier. In Baja’s role as the Climate and Resilience Planner in the Office of Sustainability, she has the primary responsibility for coordinating the development and implementation of Baltimore’s Disaster Preparedness Project and Plan. (http://baltimorehazards.wordpress.com/disaster-preparedness/).

“That storm was a wake-up call for residents. We had nearly 5½ inches of rain in 16 hours, which led to major flooding. It started in the morning. By afternoon, we were evacuating people, and at 4:00 p.m., 26th Street collapsed. Our infrastructure isn’t up to handling this type of weather. Parts of the city had 3 to 5 feet of floodwaters,” Baja recalled.

“We want to keep our residents safe,” said Baja. “So we decided to take a different approach to hazards planning.” According to Baja, traditional plans are divided by the types of impacts, such as flooding or health risks, and are usually developed and administered by municipalities’ engineering or emergency planning staff. In contrast, Baltimore created four categories— infrastructure, buildings, natural systems, and public services—for addressing its vulnerabilities and responses to them. Every city agency was involved in the development of the plan, along with representatives of dozens of stakeholder groups that served on a 40-member advisory committee. Commenting on the challenges of integrating input from so many sources, Baja said: “Sustainability and resilience tie everything together, if we move forward together.”

Anticipating dangers associated with a changing climate is at the core of the “DP3,” as Baja and others call Baltimore’s recently adopted integrated all-hazards plan. Reflecting on the damage inflicted by the April storm, she explained that the city had already decided to go “above and beyond the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) floodplain delineations” in its plans because local experts knew Baltimore had many watersheds that were not designated as hazard areas in FEMA’s delineations despite their history of flooding. The city’s new floodplain regulations apply to lands within the 500-year FEMA-delineated zone, rather than the 100-year zone on which almost all municipalities focus their restrictions. Baja said, “Our goals in using the 500-year delineation were both to keep our citizens safe and to have Baltimore certified under the National Flood Insurance Program so that our businesses and property owners will save money on insurance because the city is being smarter about development and redevelopment.”

The revised, strengthened floodplain requirements are good examples of how Baltimore is prioritizing adaptation actions that provide multiple benefits and achieve priorities of several agencies. Through the DP3, “[we are] linking the rebirth of our city to safety modifications,” said Baja, referring to Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake’s redevelopment initiatives and their overlap with minimizing flood risks. It appears that Baltimore has a brighter future, even if it is rainier.

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states that gray infrastructure costs 38% more to construct than the green variety.

enaw.org/government/drain_commissioner/ dc_webPermits_DesignStandards/dc_lid.

Green techniques for managing stormwater quantity and quality have been shown to increase property values. Research conducted by the University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee showed increases in the value of properties near green infrastructure installations due to their pleasing aesthetics, improved protection from flooding, and added recreational opportunities, thereby increasing local tax revenues.21

The designs, and redesigns, of Midwestern buildings, neighborhoods, towns, and cities in ways that reflect the new weather realities will be an important type of preparation going forward.

Improving development policies and practices Local government leaders can make their communities more sustainable and ready to face new climate realities by changing building codes and zoning ordinances. Construction needs to be designed to withstand higher wind velocities.

Building permits should not be available for structures in hazard zones such as floodplains, even if they were previously deemed unlikely to be inundated. Both new developments and redevelopments in climate-ready communities should feature permeable paving, systems to reuse household water, and networks of ponds or “swales” to manage stormwater.

Washtenaw County, Michigan, is a good example of a local jurisdiction protecting people and property from weather-related hazards. The county’s water commissioner makes the rules that govern stormwater management within its jurisdiction, which includes Ann Arbor, Ypsilanti, and other cities, villages, and townships. As described in the case study on page 15, new rules formulated in 2013 require developers to handle all water on-site, using nature-based techniques such as porous pavement and swales planted with native vegetation, that allow stormwater to soak into the ground. The county provides specific direction on these and other techniques in a series of fact sheets available at: http://www.ewasht-

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) requires states to have a disaster preparedness plan, but FEMA does not require states to prepare for climate change, or even mention the associated risks in their plans. A 2013 survey from Columbia Law School’s Center for Climate Change Law ranked the adequacy of all 50 states’ plans with respect to climate impacts.22 A ranking of 4 indicated a state that was prepared for the type of weather we are already experiencing. None of the Midwest states’ plans fell in that category. Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan all have plans that received a 3 while the other states were at the bottom of the pack with 2’s or 1’s.

Updating local and state hazard response plans In addition to protecting our built and natural environments, we also have to protect ourselves.

Public health experts are most concerned about the effects of rising temperatures. The elderly, very young, and chronically ill are most impacted when the temperature rises above 95°F for more than a day. The overall warming and more frequent heat waves resulting from climate change will be most dangerous for those populations.

Cities that do not have a plan for heat-related emergencies must create one or leave their most vulnerable citizens at increased risk.

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Keeping water clean by keeping land green Milwaukee’s Metropolitan Sewerage District is minimizing future issues with runoff through a program called Greenseams, which protects land along rivers and streams in areas that are most vulnerable to development. In some instances, the district acquires extensive tracts of wetlands or forests.

Other land acquisitions preserve narrower corridors along waterways, creating a buffer, so that the impact of future development will be minimal. One acre of undisturbed land in a wetland or in a river’s floodplain adds between 65,000 and 651,000 gallons of storm water storage to MMSD’s systems, depending on the permeability of the soil.

Conservation and restoration as risk reducers Conserving our remaining natural landscapes is an important strategy for reducing the amount of climate change confronting us. As detailed in the section “Climate Change and Changing Land Uses” on page 20, we all derive a variety of benefits from lands protected from development. The Midwest’s forests, native grasslands, and other natural lands absorb and hold carbon, reducing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Moreover, scientists report that lands with their natural vegetation moderate some of the worst effects of extreme weather.

In addition to their importance for carbon storage and cooling, forests also are essential sources of clean drinking water. A study done by the Trust for Public Land showed that the more forest a city has covering its drinking water source, the less it has to spend to ensure its purity. As the climate changes and concerns about water

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quality grow, it will be more critical than ever to protect the trees and intact soils that act as a natural, virtually no-cost filtration system in the watersheds that provide our drinking water.

Throughout the Midwest, communities are identifying the lands most important for their watersheds and acting to protect them. One example is Edison Woods, a 1,300-acre nature preserve located in Erie County, 50 miles west of Cleveland near Cedar Point. The property was purchased by Erie MetroParks, safeguarding the area’s water resources. The City of Marion and Ohio’s Environmental Protection Agency were key partners in funding the acquisition.

In Minnesota, voters approved the Clean Water, Land, and Legacy Amendment, which set aside one-third of state sales tax revenue for the Clean Water Fund. At least 5% of the fund must be spent to protect drinking water sources, such as forests.

In places where natural lands were previously converted to other uses, we can reduce risks by restoring wetlands, re-creating native ecosystems (to the greatest degree possible), retiring agricultural lands that are close to sensitive waterways, and growing new forests with species of trees appropriate for the shifts in Midwest climate. These are all practical, positive adaptation steps toward healing damaged landscapes to the point where they can help protect the Midwest from risks connected to new weather patterns. Restoration of former industrial zones can produce multiple benefits for both humans and wildlife, as demonstrated by the Lorain, Ohio, case study on page 18. For more information on steps communities can take, visit http://www.nwf.org/greenworks and http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/ files/docs/task_force_report_0.pdf.

Huron River, Michigan: Quality data benefits downstream communities and fish alike

Photo by Barbara Eckstein, Flickr.com.

Ever since Native Americans first established permanent settlements in southeastern Michigan, the 130-mile-long Huron River has been a life-giving waterway. The river has served area residents as a source of sustenance, irrigation, and power for mills when the area was primarily agricultural; a transportation route when lumber and mining were the core of the economy; and, most recently, a generator of electricity for the expansive auto industry that provided decades of prosperity. It is treasured as a natural and recreational resource, especially for boating and its prized small-mouth bass fishery. In addition, it is the source of 85% of Ann Arbor’s drinking water and still produces hydropower.

For nearly 50 years, the Huron River Watershed Council (HRWC), a nonprofit organization, has worked to ensure that the river will continue to be a valued, safeguarded resource. It uses research, education, and community engagement to improve water quality and ensure adequate flows in the river. Its science informs the actions of government agencies at all levels and helps the citizens of the watershed protect and manage their irreplaceable resource.

In response to the threats posed by climate change, HRWC launched the Climate Resilient Communities project to protect the river and the communities in the watershed. “Everyone involved in land and water management is seeing change,” said Rebecca Esselman, a watershed planner at HRWC and the project’s leader, referring to the warmer and wetter weather.

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“Elected officials, agency staff, nonprofits, and individuals are all seeking information to help them understand the threats posed by these changes. They need access to local data that quantifies the changes. They want advice and guidance on how to respond in financially responsible ways,” Esselman continued.

To help local decision makers, the Council and its partners have modeled the potential effects of major storms, distributed updated projections for rainfall, and assessed future stormwater volumes based on the anticipated frequency and severity of future weather. Esselman noted that municipalities rarely have the funding, staff time, or expertise to conduct their own research to underpin local decision making.

One result of the project is a watershed-wide collaboration to coordinate the management of the 16 dams on the Huron River. “The dams have different purposes, such as irrigation, hydro, and recreation,” explained Esselman. The in-stream flow element of the project brings together dam operators, fisheries biologists, and hydrologists to achieve sustainable flows in the river and advance climate change preparedness.

“We are having more intense storms, with higher rainfall, and it is only going to get worse. A major storm could breach one dam and affect all the others downstream, and possibly many people in the watershed,” she said. Esselman also hopes that the coordination will allow for management regimes to protect the Huron River’s bass fishery. She said that successful spawning requires specific water levels, which are strongly influenced by the water flows leaving the dams.

Much more work is needed to ensure that critical water resources can be protected in the face of climate change. “There are questions we have to answer about each dam—lake level requirements and government regulations,” Esselman reported. But HRWC is committed to finding the answers. The collaboration, its methods, and products are good models for other Midwest watershed facing similar challenges. http://www.hrwc.org/our-work/programs/making-climate-resilient-communities/

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Conclusion Every one of us has good reasons to be part of an expansive response to the changing climate in the Midwest. From a strictly economic perspective, industries such as tourism, recreation, agriculture, insurance, forestry, shipping, and fisheries are all as threatened as the municipal entities and Midwestern residents profiled in this report.

In recent years, municipalities and state agencies have been forced to handle more weather-related emergencies at greater expense. Because their citizens are at direct risk, they have taken action out of necessity. However, some of our local governments are also out in front of the work to both reduce emissions and prepare our communities.

This report offers suggestions primarily for local and regional government action plus an introduction to what you can do at home and at work.

Possibly the most important step you can take is to get involved in climate-related initiatives in your community, where your voice and vote are most influential. You can have a positive impact on state and federal levels, too, by encouraging your legislators to take the lead in protecting Midwestern lives and livelihoods. Investing your energy, expertise, and time to engage policymakers can advance crucial climate-related research and help secure funding for adaptation, conservation, and restoration.

In addition, you can play an extremely important role by establishing new partnerships that help prevent worsening climate conditions and prepare us for the new realities we face.

As you have probably surmised, this will be a collaborative venture. Individuals, nonprofits, small and large businesses, philanthropies, and government agencies all have critical responsibilities. We need to work together to create a resilient Midwest that retains its unique character while protecting its natural resources and

Photo by Erin McKee VanSlooten.

people. Through this cooperative effort, we can build a region that reduces its impact on climate as it adapts to the new realities of our changing weather. In the face of climate change, our communities can thrive socially, economically, and environmentally.

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Endnotes 1.

U.S. Global Change Research Program, “Highlights,” National Climate Assessment, http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights.

2.

The Field Museum, “Chicago Community Climate Action Toolkit,” http://climatechicago.fieldmuseum.org/.

3.

Steven Whitman, Glenn Good, Edmund R. Donoghue, Nanette Benbow, Wenyuan Shou, and Shanxuan Mou, “Mortality in Chicago Attributed to the July 1995 Heat Wave,” American Journal of Public Health 87 (1997): 1515.

4.

The Nature Conservancy, “Journey with Nature: Karner Blue Butterfly,” http://www.nature.org/ourinitiatives/regions/northamerica/unitedstates/indiana/journeywithnature/ karner-blue-butterfly-1.xml.

5.

Howard Meyerson, “Climate Change: Butterflies, game birds and game animals threatened,” The Grand Rapids Press, December 8, 2013, http://www.mlive.com/outdoors/index.ssf/2013/12/ climate_change_butterflies_gam.html.

6.

Jenna Flanagan, “Scientists track ticks as they move north,” Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, August 20, 2014, http://www.caryinstitute.org/newsroom/scientists-track-ticks-theymove-north.

7.

Tom Held and Alex Morrell, “Milwaukee Damage $28.5 Million and Counting,” Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, July 24, 2010, http://www.jsonline.com/news/milwaukee/99156089.html.

8.

Conor Shine, “With floods comes risk of water contamination,” Minnesota Daily, April 14, 2009, http://www.mndaily.com/2009/04/14/floods-comes-risk-water-contamination.

9.

Doug Brown, “Ohio beaches still second worst in country among coastline states,” The Plain Dealer, June 27, 2012, http://www.cleveland.com/metro/index.ssf/2012/06/ohio_beaches_still_second_wors.html.

10. Mark Dorfman and Angela Haren, “Testing the Waters: Executive Overview,” 23rd edition, National Resources Defense Council, June 2013, http://www.nrdc.org/water/oceans/ttw/2013/ ttw2013_Executive_Overview.pdf.

11. National Resources Defense Council, “Facts about Pollution from Livestock Farms,” February 21, 2013, http://www.nrdc.org/water/pollution/ffarms.asp.

12. Kevin Rose, “Record heat killing many freshwater fish,” Lake Scientist, August 8, 2012, http://www.lakescientist.com/record-heat-killing-many-freshwater-fish/.

13. Mollie Bloudoff-Indelicato, “Drought hurts shipping industry, raises prices,” Environment & Energy Publishing, July 27, 2012, http://www.eenews.net/stories/1059967948.

14. U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, “2011 National Survey of Fishing, Hunting, and Wildlife-Associate Recreation,” revised December 2013, https://www.census.gov/prod/2013pubs/fhw11-mn.pdf.

15. Samuel S. Myers, Antonella Zanobetti, Itai Kloog, Peter Huybers, Andrew D.B. Leakey, Arnold J. Bloom, Eli Carlisle, Lee H. Dietterich, Glenn Fitzgerald, Toshihiro Hasegawa, N. Michele Holbrook, Randall L. Nelson, Michael J. Ottman, Victor Raboy, Hidemitsu Sakai, Karla A. Sartor, Joel Schwartz, Saman Seneweera, Michael Tausz, and Yasuhiro Usui, “Increasing CO2 threatens human nutrition,” Nature 510 (2014): 139-142.

16. “Climate Change,” UN-Habitat, http://unhabitat.org/urban-themes/climate-change/.

17. Eric Roston, “Hot Ideas and a Climate-Friendly Republican Remake Indiana Town,” Bloomberg, July 22, 2014, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-07-22/hot-ideas-and-a-climatefriendly-republican-remake-indiana-town.html.

18. Christina Ashtary, “Resilient Community Series: A ‘Well-Rounded’ Plan For Environmental Sustainability in Carmel, IN,” ICLEI-USA Sustainable Cities & Counties Blog, February 18, 2014, http://www.icleiusa.org/blog/resilient-communities-series-a-well-rounded-plan-for-environmental-sustainability-in-carmel-in.

19. Bruce A. Stein., Patty Glick, Naomi Edelson, and Amanda Staudt (eds.), “Climate-Smart Conservation: Putting Adaptation Principles into Practice,” National Wildlife Federation (2014), http://www.nwf.org/pdf/Climate-Smart-Conservation/NWF-Climate-Smart-Conservation_5-08-14.pdf.

20. Milwaukee Water Works, “Milwaukee, Wisconsin – The Global Freshwater City,” http://milwaukee.gov/water.

21. Catherine Madison and John Kovari, “Impact of Green Infrastructure on Property Values within the Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District Planning Area: Case Studies,” The University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Center for Economic Development, May 2013, http://www4.uwm.edu/ ced/publications/MMSD_GreenInfrastructure_Final.pdf.

22. Matthew Babcock, “State Hazard Mitigation Plans & Climate Change: Rating the States,” Columbia Law School Center for Climate Change Law, November 2013, https://web.law.columbia. edu/sites/default/files/microsites/climate-change/files/Publications/Students/SHMP%20 Survey_Final.pdf.

IslandPress.org

NWF.org