Chechnya - Russia’s sore spot by security observer

Chechnya - Russia’s sore spot By Maia Dimitrova1

ABSTRACT In many ways, post-war Chechnya has faired very well. Just about ten years ago, the extent of the republic’s destruction was compared to that of the battle for Stalingrad. Now, the capital Grozny displays glimmering skyscrapers and renovated apartment buildings, one of the largest mosques in the Western hemisphere, a modern airport and decent infrastructure. The country is much less a nest for terrorism than it was in the 1990s and in the early 2000s. That being said, this does not mean that the North Caucasian separatists turned Islamic radicals are not roaming, especially in the Caucasus Mountains of South Chechnya. It is undeniable that from an economic point of view post-war Chechnya has become a noteworthy success story. However, the stability and the relative economic strength have not come without a price. Under the leadership of the current Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov, Islam has been elevated to an official religion and its citizens are forced to venerate his cult of personality. There have been numerous reports of human rights abuses, some of them atrocious. The price of peace lies in the pact between Moscow and Kadyrov that gives the Chechen President unprecedented power to rule the republic to his own liking, provided *

Maia Dimitrova is contributor at the International Security Observer (ISO). Maia is also a contributing analyst for Wikistrat. The focus of her work is economic and political risk analysis; international security, geopolitics, international relations, and US foreign policy. Ms. Dimitrova earned her M.A. at Sofia University, Bulgaria, and her M.S. in Global Affairs at New York University. During the course of her academic training, she completed a graduate specialization at Charles University in Prague, Czech Republic, and a post-graduate specialization at the Polish Academy of Sciences in Warsaw, Poland. She is fluent in French, English, Russian, Czech, and Bulgarian. She lives in New York.

that he guarantees that Chechnya will not challenge Russia’s territorial integrity, i.e. seek independence. Additionally, in order to insure the stability of the regime in Grozny, the Chechen capital, Russia has been paying for the majority of the republic’s budget and funding Chechnya’s post civil war reconstruction and economic development.

THE RESULTS OF THE TWO WARS FOR INDEPENDENCE The grievances of the Chechens against Moscow are not new - they go back almost two centuries, starting with Russia’s increased appetite for territorial expansion. The North Caucasians, of whom the Chechens are part, have always been fiercely independent. Somehow, perhaps because of their religion, geographic isolation and their North Caucasian ethnicity, they were able to retain this drive for self-determination. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the fact that many Soviet republics were able to obtain their independence, presented a unique opportunity for autonomous Chechnya to resurrect hopes of complete independence from Moscow. The First Chechen War against Russia (1994-1996) was led under the auspices of an independent Chechen state, while the Second Chechen War (1999-2000, with insurgencies lasting until 2009) clearly had a religious underlining. The result of the two wars was such that in 2003, the United Nations called the capital Grozny the most destroyed city on earth.2 There was not a single building that had not been damaged. The two wars destroyed every fabric of Chechen society. Between 1994 and 2003, between 150,000 and 160,000 people died in the conflict3; at least as many fled to the neighboring republics living for prolonged periods in appalling conditions. Additionally, over 200,000 people have immigrated all over the world. 4 Because of insufficient data, it is difficult to assess the proportion of the lost 2

BBC NEWS Scars remain amid Chechen revival, 03/03/2007, accessed on 09/10/13, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/from_our_own_correspondent/6414603.stm 3 RADIO FREE EUROPE RADIO LIBERTY, Russia: Chechen Official Puts War Death Toll At 160,000, 08/16/05, accessed on 11/03/13, http://www.rferl.org/content/article/1060708.html 4 Chechen refugees, accessed on 08/29/13, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chechen_refugees

population, however, it is safe to estimate that between 1994 and 2003, Chechnya lost one third of its population; its infrastructure was in ruins. It is the most land mined-afflicted place in the world5 and the railroad system, Grozny’s airport, the transportation networks inside the capital and across Chechnya were all totally destroyed. The oil industry, a major source of revenue for pre-war Chechnya, and the infrastructure associated with it, was brought to a halt. After 10 years of suffering and destruction, Chechnya was looking for peace, rudimentary security and safety.

THE CHECHEN MODEL Many argue that in some ways, the Chechen post-war model is unique. First, Chechnya is not an independent state. It is an autonomous republic within the Russian Federation. As such it enjoys some advantages, especially when it comes to financial assistance and direct investments from Russian companies.6 In a few words, the recipe for the post-war stability consists of two components: sound financial support from Moscow and total power control by the Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov. The swift reconstruction of Chechnya would not have been possible without the economic assistance from Moscow. Close to 90% of Chechnya’s revenue comes from the Russia’s Federal budget. 7 Chechnya receives disproportionately more federal funds than any other republic in North Caucasus. Apartment buildings are renovated for free; hospitals, schools and government buildings are reconstructed or built in the fastest possible way. The ruling regime is aware that the male and especially young male will remain restive and willing to join the Islamic separatists as long as job opportunities are not present. The unemployment 5

Bilukha OO, Brennan M, Anderson M, Tsitsaev Z, Murtazaeva E, Ibragimov R., Seen but not heard: injuries and deaths from landmines and unexploded ordnance in Chechnya, 1994-2005, National Center for Biotechnology Information, 2007 Nov-Dec;22(6):507-12, accessed on 11/03/13, http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18711835 6 Dzutsev Valery, Ramzan Kadyrov’s Regime is Unable to Cope with Sagging Chechen Economy, Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 7 Issue: 202, 11/08/10, access on 08/22/13, http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=37148 7 Ibidem.

rate is still very high: currently about 30% of the working age population is without work, however, it is down from 52% six years ago.8 The main budget revenue within Chechnya comes from its oil and gas sector.9 The Russian oil and gas companies Rosneft, Lukoil and Gazprom have been very active in post-war redevelopment of the hydrocarbon industry in Chechnya. The oil sector, the main revenue for pre-war Chechnya, is reaching pre-conflict levels. The luxury hotels rising in Grozny are put up to lure business travelers and future tourists. The republic is experiencing a post-conflict baby boom with a birth rate of 3.12, much higher than everywhere else in Russia.10 Many Western backed human rights groups claim that most of the statistics on Chechnya are skewed and do not represent the real picture in Chechnya. It is almost certain that the financial assistance from Russia is not absorbed and dispersed effectively. Large portions of it get lost in the disbursement chain and remain in the hands of Kadyrov’s circle. However, it is impossible to deny that Chechnya today is a very different place than the Chechnya of ten years ago, especially the capital Grozny. Its glitzy skyscrapers, soaring Akhmad Kadyrov’s mosque and newly built first class hotels resemble more Abu Dhabi than a conflict torn place such as Syria.

WHY RUSSIA IS PICKING UP THE TAB AND CLOSING HER EYES Russia is ready to sacrifice a lot to maintain her territorial integrity. She has spent centuries to amass, conquer and add neighboring land to build an empire. The vastness of her territory is simultaneously Russia’s strength and vulnerability. The quick and traumatic disintegration of the Soviet Union is only the last pearl in the string of historical events in which Russia was forced to give up land and to contract. The Russian Federation is a multiethnic society in which the ethnic differences are tolerated only to the extent that Moscow’s authority is not 8

Unemployment rate in Russian Federation, accessed on 08/20/13, http://unemploymentinrussia.com/republic_of_chechnya.aspx 9 The Moscow Times, Kadyrov Lashes Out At Rosneft, 04/17/13, accessed on 08/03/13, http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/kadyrov-lashes-out-at-rosneft/478713.html 10 Демографический ежегодник России, accessed on 11/03/13, http://www.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_main/rosstat/ru/statistics/publications/catalog/doc_1137674209312

challenged. The governors and the most senior local officials have to be selected and rubber stamped by Moscow. Those officials must have proven their loyalty to the Kremlin and obey its authority. Kadyrov follows this trend. He does not intend to seek territorial independence from Moscow. However, he has succeeded de facto to reign independent of Moscow. The Kremlin has granted Kadyrov with the unlimited power to pursue and break any independence movement in Chechnya.11 Moscow tolerates the fact that Kadyrov, who has built a strong cult of personality, has virtually managed to impose Sharia law, forcing head scarves on women, endorsing polygamy and even pushing honor killings on women who do not respect Islamic law.12 Why is Russia tolerating this behavior? First, Chechnya has proven to be the “Russian Afghanistan.” After the bloody war, which not only shook Russia’s territory but also brought extreme Islamic fundamentalism all the way to Moscow, Russia has exhausted her moral resources to fight against the independently minded Chechens. It was a well known fact that Russian soldiers were avoiding military service at any price in order to stay away from going to fight in Chechnya. Second, Russia knows that Chechnya needs a strong hand in charge, which will consolidate power, even at the expense of human rights. Let’s not forget that human rights do not rank high on the Kremlin’s agenda. Therefore, the cries from human rights activists of atrocities committed by Kadyrov’s regime will meet deaf ears in Moscow. The possibility that Vladimir Putin will stay in power for another 10 years gives the young Kadyrov the assurance that he can reign as he pleases, so long as he does not challenge Russia’s territorial integrity. Plus, Kadyrov’s strong handed ruling style certainly appeals to Putin and the Siloviki13 around him. Prior to the wars, Chechnya’s economy was part of USSR’s supply chain. It delivered crude oil, packaged foods, and lumber.14 After the wars, Chechnya has been living on subsidies and 11

Nemtsova Anna, The Chechen Boss, Foreign Policy, 04/01/13, accessed on 08/18/13 REUTERS, Factbox: Five facts on Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, 03/05/11, accessed on 09/04/13, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/05/us-russia-kadyrov-idUSTRE72417U20110305 13 is a fraction in politicians in Russia, whose background comes from the security and military forces, such as KGB, GRU, FSB. They are usually seen as the hardliners in the Russian political spectrum. 14 Elbuzdukayeva Tamara U., Economic Recovery in Chechnya: History and Modernity, International Relations and Security Network, 10/12/10, accessed on 08/02/13, http://www.isn.ethz.ch/DigitalLibrary/Publications/Detail/?ots591=eb06339b-2726-928e-0216-1b3f15392dd8&lng=en&id=123143 12

investments from Moscow. The only source of occasional tensions now between Grozny and Moscow comes from the fact that the state-owned oil company Rosneft retains 51 per cent stake in the petroleum joint venture Grozneftegaz. Grozny has tried unsuccessfully so far to gain majority of the stake in the company. Last year, when Rosneft’s license to produce oil had expired, the local government went as far as inviting Azerbaijan to explore Chechnya’s oil reserves.15 However, even Kadyrov realizes that in a long term, the oil cannot be the main financial source for Chechnya. In addition, the republic lacks the expertise and the resources to extract and export the oil, independent of Moscow.

HOW COULD THE CHECHEN MODEL PLAY OUT There are three possible ways the Chechen model could evolve. The first possible scenario is for Ramzan Kadyrov, like his father Akhmad Kadyrov, to be killed in a terrorist attack. Unless Moscow has a proven loyal substitute, the political vacuum would be an ideal opportunity for the Chechen Jamaat, the North Caucasus armed resistance movement of Chechnya, Dagestan and Ingushetia, to reclaim its influence. Although the Chechen separatist movement is plagued by rivalries, the nationalist rebel wing, led by Doku Umarov, the selfproclaimed Emir of the Caucasian Emirate could try to take advantages of the power vacuum. The second possibility is the evolution of Kadyrov’s regime towards a more tolerant society. This could happen if he manages to fully neutralize his enemies, i.e., the Chechen separatists. In this scenario, Kadyrov may loosen his firm grip on the population and allow certain religious and human rights freedoms. However, given the current situation and Kadyrov’s personality, it may take many years for the regime to soften up. The third possibility, which as of now seems most likely, is for the regime to maintain the status quo in a form of religious authoritarianism. This involves enforcing strict Islamic laws on society, curtailing human and women’s rights, and policing the population. All three scenarios would develop under the assumption that Moscow will continue 15

Coalson Robert, Russia's Chechnya Invites Azerbaijan To Explore Oil Fields, 04/06/12, Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, accessed on 11/03/13, http://www.rferl.org/content/chechnya_invites_azerbaijan_to_explore_oil_fields/24540282.html

subsidizing Kadyrov’s regime. If Moscow, under financial duress, reduces its monetary assistance to Grozny, Chechnya may well succumb to the separatist and Islamic fundamentalist forces and become a hotbed for another jihadist conflict. For the time being, Kadyrov enjoys the moral and financial support of the Kremlin. The clan, top-down mentality of Chechen society and its desire for stability after the prolonged civil war would certainly help Kadyrov to stay in power.

CONCLUSION Post war Chechnya is a noteworthy example for post conflict development. The relative stability has been achieved at a high price: human rights abuses, lack of freedom of speech and religion; religious authoritarianism and the full-fledged cult of personality. Chechnya is not a place where democracy and the rule of law are thriving or have much chance of doing so. Yet, let’s not forget that Chechnya is part of the Russian Federation which itself does not score high on these indexes. Nonetheless, it is undeniable that in a course of less than a decade, Chechnya has risen from the ashes to become a relatively stable place with ambitious goals. The uniqueness of the Chechen model comes from the fact that Kadyrov’s regime has steady financial and political backing from the Kremlin. Chechnya is a fairly homogenous society, where a majority of its members practice the same religion - Islam. Certainly, without Moscow’s financial support, today’s Grozny would have resembled more Baghdad than Abu Dhabi. As a post-conflict place, Chechnya’s example is far from perfect but for now, it serves Moscow's and Kadyrov's purposes, which in the end, assures the status quo.

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