The London Globalist Issue 2 by Ed Piel

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LONDON Issue No.2

GL BALIST the other perspective

Spring 2011

Unwanted but Essential Islamic Feminism- an Oxymoron? Currency War: Stuck in the Crossfire ÂŠ Philippe Ramette

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Contents The Sound of Silence

Leader of Reform... Or Puppet of the West?

10 In Favour of a Multi-Faceted Approach to Determining Development

Profitable Enterprises in a Period of Economic Uncertainty

Unwanted but Essential

Why Would Iran Want to Seek Nuclear Weapons?

Currency War: Stuck in the Crossfire

Islamic Feminism - an Oxymoron?

Think Locally, Act Globally: NATO’s New Strategic Concept

In the Eye of the Beholder: Beijing and Tehran’s Nuclear Ambitions

GRIMSHAW INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS CLUB

The Grimshaw Club is the student society afÞliated to the LSE International Relations Department and, established in 1923, it is the oldest student society of the School. The Club welcomes all students interested in current affairs while also providing an important social forum for student and staff members of the Department. The Grimshaw Club frequently hosts speakers and panel discussions throughout the year and is one of the few LSE student societies to organize student study trips. One of our new projects is the ÔAmbassador SeriesÕ which connects students and staff of the LSE to the diplomatic world of London and offers an opportunity to obtain Þrst hand information of international politics.

Dear

Globalist Readers

Welcome to the second edition of The London Globalist.

Editorial Staff: Editor in Chief: Jeremy Smith Deputy Editor: Francesca Washtell Associate Editors: Pablo Alonso-Caprile Zack Beauchamp Robert Eisenberg Will Longhurst Mi Kyoung Park Mikko Patokallio Jane Wei Copy Editors: Meri Ahlberg Megan Harley-Grazier Eunseong Hwang Hobie Kropp Mary Maclennan Vincent Voorwald

Non-Editorial Staff: Publisher/Executive Editor: Elisa de Denaro Vieira Henrik Vaaler Front Cover: Philippe Ramette Contemplation irrationnelle, 2003 Photographie couleur 150 x 120 cm Photographe: Marc Domage © Philippe Ramette Courtesy Galerie Xippas

Advertising & Sponsors: Julia Hug Eleonore Mouy Design Editor: Eduard Piel

n behalf of the Editorial Team, I’d just like to thank everyone who contributed to the first edition; without them, the magazine would never have been possible, and it is to you we owe the most. I’d also like to thank all our readers for the support and praise that they have given us; it is to you ultimately that we dedicate our efforts in the pursuit of greater understanding of international affairs. Moving forwards, this issue seeks to explore international affairs from an alternative angle, hence the theme for this edition is “The Other Perspective”. Many issues in global politics are far from clearcut, a fact that is often forgotten in age of frenzied media analysis and fact-finding. In this edition, we have endeavoured to delve deeper and question the conventional wisdom that so often pervades international affairs. In the face of the current economic crisis, Tim Wilson investigates those who seek to benefit from the financial turmoil, while Lara Suleiman explores the contentious issue of currency wars. Amid the recent debate over immigration, Calder Burgam questions whether the French government’s present attitude towards the Roma population is really serving everyone’s best interests. Seeking to turn the prevailing Western perspective on its head, Brijesh Khemlani discusses the case for Iranian nuclear proliferation. Juha Saarinen also reports how China feels about the nuclear issue. Mofeyisayo Ayodele also outlines the case for alternative measures in the field of development studies. Readers, I hope you enjoy the second edition of The London Globalist.

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LONDON

GLOBALIST

The London Globalist

Jeremy Smith Editor-in-chief

06 The Sound of Silence

The Sound of Silence

PHOTO: Sean David Hobb

n July 18th, in the small French town of Saint Aignon, a gendarmeâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s gun fired and 22-year old French Roma Luigi Dequenet fell dead. Within hours, dozens of Roma assaulted the local police station with hatchets and crowbars in retaliation. Trees were hacked to the ground and cars were burned. Two weeks later, French President Nicolas Sarkozy spoke, and the deportation of hundreds

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of Roma people began. There was, however, no Roma voice to be heard. A political firestorm ensued, yet there was no seat at the table for Romani groups in the debate. The main actors were France and the European Union. Interest groups weighed in on the ongoing deportations, but after the European Commission suspended its case against the French, the matter lost coverage. Now, with no clear end in sight for

while those in France faced branding and the shaving of their heads.

Throughout their history, Roma gypsies have been mistreated and marginalized. After France chose to single them out for expulsion in late July, now is an appropriate time to look at the problems faced by Roma and policy solutions that will allow the group to thrive.

During the Enlightenment, many countries tried to assimilate the Roma by force, redistributing Roma children from their families to neighboring towns. While this reduced their numbers, many Roma simply avoided assimilation by taking up a nomadic lifestyle. When World War II began, the Roma were some of the first victims of Nazi internment camps. Approximately 500,000 died during Hitler’s rule. Tragically, even Nazi ethnic cleansing did not garner enough sympathy for the Roma to prevent further injustices. Northern and central European countries such as Norway, Sweden, and Switzerland actively tried to eliminate Romani groups through forced sterilisation, and placing Roma children under state control. By the end of the Cold War era, Roma still faced discrimination throughout Europe, only to face ethnic cleansing again in 1999, this time at the hands of ethnic Albanians following NATO military operations in the former Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. Over the past 75 years, the Roma have survived forced assimilation, often brutal persecution, and two attempted genocides. Survival, let alone prosperity or social mobility, has often proved elusive for the group in Europe.

The Present Situation

the French policy, it is essential that mistakes of the past are not repeated. Roma gypsies are the quintessential ‘other’. A culture without a country, Roma have no unifying voice of defence when faced with the state’s power of the pulpit, and in some cases, its power of the sword. Thus, Roma can easily be swept under the rug or across a border; the historical cost of this, however, has been their security and our collective humanity.

A Painful Past

aking their way to Europe from India by 1000 C.E., the Roma people found very few countries welcoming. In Byzantium, they were treated as heretics, in part for carrying some of the Hindu customs of their Indian ancestors. Across Eastern Europe, many were forced into slavery. In England, those Roma not expelled were hanged,

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nowing the Roma’s history makes it easy to understand why in the 2007 landmark case D.H. and Others v. the Czech Republic, the European Court of Human Rights wrote that ‘as a result of their turbulent history and constant uprooting the Roma have become a specific type of disadvantaged and vulnerable minority [...]’ and ‘they therefore require special protection [...]’. However, that special protection still does not exist in practice for Europe’s approximately 9 million Roma. According to a 2009 report by the EU’s Fundamental Rights Agency (FRA), two major reasons exist for why Roma feel the need to migrate, often to wealthier nations in the North and West of Europe.

1. Poverty The first and most prominent ‘push factor’ is poverty. The World Bank notes that in some areas, Roma poverty rates are 10 times that of non-

Although some choose to characterize Roma as feckless beggars and thieves, objective studies by the EU and World Bank have shown that structural problems can compound to create severe inequality. According to the World Bank, Roma were in a poor position to compete as many European countries transitioned to market economies at the end of the Cold War. With relatively little education or non-menial job experience, many Roma had difficulty entering the changing labor market. Simultaneous discrimination, lack of access to credit, and unclear property contributed to the problem’s persistence. Unfortunately for those who want to improve their condition or help their children develop essential skills, access to quality education is disproportionately low for Roma. The ambiguous nature of their property ownership, along with their relative isolation, makes enrolling in schools difficult. For Roma that are fortunate enough to attend, cultural differences, bullying and language barriers can be obstacles to a strong education.

2. Racism As the second ‘push factor’, racism plays a significant role in pushing Roma west. In an article for The Guardian, Executive Director of the European Roma Rights Centre Robert Kushen wrote that Roma leave their home countries “[b] ecause they have no jobs at home. Because their children are segregated into schools ostensibly for children with mental disabilities. Because they are the targets of extremist violence by neo-Nazis. Because the vast majority of their non-Roma neighbours express implacable hostility toward

“As Europe integrates, andGlobalist the rich diversity of goods, The London people and ideas of the continent intermingle, national leaders must avoid entrenching themselves in ethnic rhetorics.”

them.” Many of these attitudes have fed into the economic issues, creating cyclical problems in which Roma find it difficult to contribute to society economically, which causes a backlash from the established population and the decreased likelihood of future employment or education. In the FRA survey, one Roma explained, “I had to guard my house with a baseball bat. White British kids were threatening my children, calling them ‘bloody Pakis’. The Roma are either seen as East Europeans, Asians or migrants. None of these is an advantage when seeking work in the United Kingdom.” In an increasingly integrated Europe, one would hope governments would not add to the ethnic attacks on Roma, no matter their country of origin. Regrettably, this is not always the case, which brings us back to the current problem in France. In his aforementioned speech, President Sarkozy declared that there existed an “unacceptable situation of lawlessness that characterises the Roma people who come from Eastern Europe onto French territory.” At best, such a comment is irresponsible, and helps reinforce stereotypes of Roma as inherently criminal and harmful to society. Furthermore, it shows a complete disregard for this oft-marginalised group’s actual desires. Regardless of their location, Roma have shown that their greatest priority is entering the formal labor market and contributing to broader society. In response to the FRA survey, one Roma

PHOTO: Chernavoda

Roma. In Romania and Bulgaria, the two countries with the largest Romani population, nearly 80 percent of Roma subsist on less than $4.30 per day. A Romani statement for the FRA’s 2009 study shows why the decision to leave one’s country of origin is often simple. “In Romania I expect to eat one meal a day; in Finland I expect to eat three meals a day,” he said. “That’s the difference.”

man in Spain echoed this broad desire when he explained, “I worked in construction and in cleaning in 2008 with contracts. After that I got the unemployment benefit for six months and for four months I was in Romania. Now the benefit has expired and I am looking for a job [...] I have now only 45 Euro in my pocket but I am not going to ask for assistance, I am looking for a job.”

European Roma population is not going away, and will continue to live in inadequate and unhygienic housing with scarce income and insufficient opportunity unless commitments are made to promote integration and improve conditions at every level. Although there are many steps that must be taken to make such improvements a reality, two initiatives in particular would give Roma greater say in their future and increase their chances for success.

Education

ny solution must have a strong focus on education. This Romani man’s account describes two main needs that must addressed: ‘I would like so much to have a job. I tried, but I have no qualifications, and on the black market nobody would hire me. I would like authorities to give me all the papers I need to be registered to work. People say I only need a passport, but there is still the difficulty of the language: how could I ask for a job if I don’t speak their language?” Providing local governments with the mission and the funds to set up linguistic and occupational training centers would be an effective means of shifting adult Roma into the formal labour force.

PHOTO: Zingaro

A New Beginning

hile this article has highlighted France’s renewed push to expel Roma, unfortunately this policy is not unique. Denmark, Sweden, and Germany have all expelled Roma in the past year and half, while Finland threatened the to do the same. As Europe integrates, and the rich diversity of goods, people and ideas intermingle, national leaders must avoid entrenching themselves in ethnic rhetorics. The

For long-term integration governments must dedicate themselves to increasing the graduation rate among Roma youth. As the World Bank mentions in its 2005 report “Roma in an Expanding Europe: Breaking the Poverty Cycle”, investing in compulsory public pre-school can prepare Roma children for the classroom and greatly reduce the language barrier. Programs for secondary school have been less frequently utilized at this point, but offer an opportunity to lower the heavy drop-out rates common among Roma. Mentors and tutors, especially that share their pupils’ ethnicity, could provide greater oneon-one contact. Additionally, the introduction of curricular and extra-curricular activities familiarizing students with the Romani culture would have the dual benefits of making school a more welcoming environment for Roma children

while reducing the existing cultural stigma for their classmates.

Romani-led Solutions

ue to their marginalization, Roma have had little opportunity to take part in the policy process necessary to improve their collective well-being. Officeholders simply do not have the knowledge of Romani culture or problems to comprehensively address the issues shared by both sides. Therefore it is essential that Roma men and women are employed in any new outreach programs. Whether it is as job trainers or student mentors, as health care or social workers aiding their local communities, or as members of work groups charged with planning the next step in Romani integration, there is a place for the expertise that only comes with experience.

Conclusions

his article’s suggestions only provide a starting point for addressing the Roma relations problem Europe faces. As the European Commission recognized in its report “The Situation of Roma in an Enlarged European Union”, radical improvements must be made in the organization, implementation, and assessment of EU and national policies related to Roma. Before any specific changes can be put in place, the mindset with which Roma issues are approached needs to be fundamentally altered. Those who have the privilege of a public voice must not work to preserve the minority’s silence if solutions are to be found(does this sentence mean officeholders, or the majorities in countries with Roma populations?). Unfortunately, President Sarkozy did just that. His characterization of Roma as a group of criminals has been heard throughout Europe, giving fodder to the school children who would bully their Romani classmates, and justification to the shop owners who would reject hiring Roma. Roma in France and across the continent have the desire to work, play, and otherwise coexist alongside their fellow Europeans. Until the President Sarkozys of the world stop and listen, however, these hopes will go unheard.

Calder Burgam c.burgam@lse.ac.uk

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10 Leader of Reform... Or Puppet of the West?

Leader of Refo The awarding of the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize to Liu Xiaobo, a renowned activist arrested for his human rights efforts in China, sparked global controversy as the Chinese government is placed in the limelight to respond to domestic political reforms.

Chinese government described the decision as “blasphemy”, accusing the committee members of imposing their personal political views on the prize, and leading it away from the original purpose set out in Alfred Nobel’s will.

Background

he 54-year-old Liu Xiaobo first came to public prominence in 1989, when he returned home from his studies in the United States to take part in the Tiananmen Square demonstrations. He was sent to prison for nearly two years for the role he played in the protests. In an interview with the BBC in 2008, Liu recalled that “the massacre in 1989 made a very deep impression” and motivated him to further campaign for human rights issues in his country. In 1996 he was again arrested for speaking out against China’s authoritarian political system, but this time was sent instead to a ‘re-educationthrough-labour’ camp for three years. Xiaobo’s continued advocacy on a range of banned subjects in China has brought him to recognition within the international human rights community. Charter 08 – published in English for the first time in the January 15, 2009 issue of The New York Review – was the petition that instigated his latest arrest in December 2008. It called for a new constitution in China, an independent judiciary and freedom of expression, demanding that

Above: Picture of Liu Xiaobo

PHOTO: Vox Asia

hen the Dalai Lama was honoured with the Nobel Peace Prize in 1989, the Chinese Communist Party predictably responded with fury. Twenty-one years later, history repeats itself as the award draws controversy and backlash from China when the recipient was announced: Liu Xiaobo, recognized “for his long and non-violent struggle for fundamental human rights in China.” Liu is a prominent Chinese human rights activist who was recently sentenced to eleven years in prison by the Chinese authorities for “inciting subversion of state power.” He becomes the first Chinese citizen to be awarded the Peace Prize, and the third to have received it while imprisoned. The

“We should make freedom of speech, freedom of the press, and academic freedom universal, thereby guaranteeing that citizens can be informed and can exercise their right of political supervision. These freedoms should be upheld by a Press Law that abolishes political restrictions on the press. The provision in the current Criminal Law that refers to “the crime of incitement to subvert state power” must be abolished. We should end the practice of viewing words as crimes.” The document also upheld the belief that “We must abolish the special privilege of one party to monopolize power and must guarantee principles of free and fair competition among political parties.” Two days before the publishing date, Liu was taken away by the authorities on a late-night raid on his home. In December 2009, he was granted a one-day trial and sentenced to eleven

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years of imprisonment for “inciting subversion of state power’” in connection with his role in organising the Charter 08 manifesto. The latest Peace Prize arrives in the midst of a global outcry for Liu’s release, as pressure from human rights groups, academics and international officials has mounted on the Communist Party. .

The State

“

The Nobel Peace Prize should be awarded to those who work to promote ethnic harmony, international friendship, disarmament and who hold peace meetings. These were [Alfred] Nobel’s wishes. Liu Xiaobo was found guilty of violating Chinese law and sentenced to prison by Chinese judicial organs. His actions run contrary to the purpose of the Nobel Peace Prize. By awarding the prize to this person, the Nobel committee has violated and blasphemed the award.’” Such was the initial response by the Chinese Foreign Affairs spokesman Ma Zhaoxu when questioned by the media to respond to the Nobel Committee’s pronouncement. Understandably, the Chinese government is angered by the Nobel Committee’s decision

orm... Or Puppet of the West? sanctioned report the following day, condemning the result and offering critique from the Party. Xinhua News Agency, the primary state-run, Chinese-language media in China, launched a collaborative assault with local news agencies on Liu and the award after a week of silence from the Chinese government. Xinhua’s initial reports testified that the Communist Party had made “unremitting efforts to promote and safeguard human rights” and questioned how Liu’s actions had contributed to human rights progress for China’s people. Subsequently, the agency published critiques for the Chinese public – including “From Dalai Lama to Liu Xiaobo: What does it say about the Nobel Peace Prize” and “Nobel Prize is a Western political reward to Liu

“Lacking all independence, the Nobel Peace Prize has become a political tool of the West and seems doomed to suffer further politicization in the future.”

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Xiaobo” – to further stress its severe disapproval for what it claims to be Western ‘intervention’ in Chinese domesticaffairs: “In the past 21 years, the Nobel Committee has given the Peace Prize to two Chinese people: the Dalai Lama and Liu Xiaobo. The former is a secessionist committed to undermining ethnic solidarity and splitting the country; the latter is serving a prison sentence for subversion. Neither meets the criteria set out by Alfred Nobel. Lacking all independence, the Nobel Peace Prize has become a political tool of the West and seems doomed to suffer further politicization in the future.”

The Allies

ome countries, including Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, echoed the Chinese government’s critique that this year’s decision of the Norwegian

PHOTO: Aktivioslo

to award Liu Xiaobo. Immediately after the announcement, the Information Office of the State Council issued a directive to microblog services across the country to set ‘Liu Xiaobo’ and ‘Peace Prize’ as prohibited keywords. Search engines such as Baidu, an alternative version of Google in China, would return an error page for words related to ‘Peace Prize’ or ‘Nobel Prize’. In addition, forums, blogs and other interactive media were forbidden from releasing any information. China Central Television’s main newscast, Xinwen Lianbo, did not report on it, and satellite broadcasts from foreign stations such as the BBC or CNN were censored for the duration of their reports on the Nobel Prize. Only a small number of journals and newspaper were permitted to publish a short, state

12 Liu Xiaobo (1955 - ) ■ Chinese human rights activist and dissident ■ Partaker in 1989 Tiananmen Square Protests

Observers in both Russia and Norway have also expressed condemnation – opinions which Xinhua News Agency procured in support of its publication. Nikolai Troitsky, a political commentator of Russia’s RIA Novosti news agency, said in a recently published article that the Nobel Peace Prize has always been extremely politicized, with the committee’s sympathies in line with the ‘U.S-NATO-Western Europe’ camp. A Norwegian lawyer and peace activist, Fredrik Heffermehl, also commented that the Nobel Peace Prize no longer respects Alfred Nobel’s initial will in honouring those who support global peace initiatives. He further denounced the honour as “an illegitimate prize awarded by an illegitimate committee.”

The Liberal Intellectuals

or many intellectuals and scholars of China, the award comes at a pivotal point in China’s political development. Yang Hengjun, a former Chinese diplomat who has become a leading Chinese language political commentator and author, remarked that Liu’s Nobel Prize sends a strong signal to the Chinese government that reform is necessary for both its domestic image and international perception. Simiarly, Ai Weiwei, a signatory of the Charter 08 petition who designed the Bird’s Nest stadium for the 2008 Beijing Olympics, commented that the award demonstrates the world is paying attention to China not only for its economic growth, but also

PHOTO: Kunshou

Nobel Committee runs contrary to the spirit of the Peace Prize and harms its integrity. Pakistan’s Foreign Office affirmed that Liu was sentenced by the Chinese judicial system and should not be qualified for the Nobel Peace Prize. The Office further asserted that “the politicization of the Nobel Peace Prize for the purposes of interference in the domestic affairs of states is not only contrary to the recognized principles of inter-state conduct but also a negation of the underlying spirit conceived by the founder of the Prize.” The Saudi-based newspaper Arab News published an article expressing explicit opposition to Liu’s selection. The article declared that by reviewing a list of past recipients, the Nobel Committee at times appears “to work as the extension of the U.S. State Department.”

■ Currently serving an 11 year prison sentence for “inciting subversion of state power” as one of the authors and signatories of Chapter 08 - a manifesto drawn up for gradual political reform in China

for the political transformations that is expected from a progressive state. Some observers support opposition beliefs that the once prestigious prize has degenerated into a political tool. Song Yubo, a professor of political science at Southwest University of Political Science and Law, denounced the Western countries for imposing its values on the Chinese government; he criticised that by upholding the banner of human rights, Western nations have interfered in domestic affairs where democracy cannot be adapted to each and every country. Other scholars are fearful that the award would feed into a sense of antagonism among China’s younger generation, serving as a new piece of evidence that Western nations are resentful of China’s advancement.

The Public

he Global Times, a Chinese newspaper sponsored by the state’s main newspaper agency, published the results of a random telephone poll of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou residents. The results showed that roughly 59 percent of respondents believe the Committee should take back the prize and apologise to the Chinese people, and more than half said Liu should be detained until his parole date. Furthermore, a total of 44 percent of respondents agreed that the main reason the committee gave this year’s prize to Liu was to put pressure on China to adopt the Western political system, while another 31 percent said it was an attempt by the committee to permeate Western values into China. At the same time, there was little awareness of Liu Xiaobo among the public in China, as more than 75 percent of respondents had no idea who the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize was. Ni Feng, director of the Institute of American Studies at

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■ Awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2010; “for his long and non-violent struggle for fundamental human rights in China” - Torbjørn Jagland, Nobel Committee Chairman ■ The Chinese Government officially boycotted of the Award ceremony, and Mr Xiabo was denied a representative to accept the prize

the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, was unsurprised by the lack of public recognition of Liu Xiaobo. Feng commented that the poll indicated the general public had little interest in the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize or his political stance, instead being more concernedwith practical issues of housing prices and income levels rather than political issues. Given the lack of public interest, has the Nobel Committee succeeded in promoting political reform in China by awarding the Peace Prize to Liu Xiaobo? A wide spectrum of Chinese and foreign commentators believe that in the long term, Liu’s award could indeed resonate more deeply within China than any similar act in years – certainly more significantly than the Nobel Peace Prize that was awarded to the Dalai Lama in 1989 or the Nobel Prize for Literature given to dissident writer Gao Xingjian in 2000. Undeniably, the Chinese government has achieved impressive results in its economic growth. Yet, economic developments must balance efficiency and equity to maintain a stable system. This honour garnered greater acknowledgement of Liu’s human rights effort, steering public opinion to encourage a new wave of political reforms. If China is able to use this opportunity to demonstrate its open-minded government and promote gradual reform process, the Nobel Peace Prize will have served its purpose.

Jane Wei j.j.wei@lse.ac.uk

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14 In Favour of a Multi-Faceted Approach to Determining Development

In Favour of

a Multi-Faceted Approach to Determining Development

Using GDP to measure development omits the major concerns of development - improving the quality of life in low-income countries. Economic growth is certainly a contributing factor to development; however, there are equally significant factors that must be accounted for.

evelopment can broadly be defined as the quest for a combination of factors that will invariably lead to growth in the low-income developing countries of the world. In its economic application, development has

been trend-oriented - as evident through 20th century import substitution industrialization, the financing gap models of the 1960s (focused primarily in the provision of capital to developing countries), infant industry protection and the emergence of structural adjustment policies of the 1970s. Despite - and perhaps as a result

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of - this history, critics of overseas development assistance often point to Africaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s 50 year history with aid and current level of development. In our contemporary world, the debate regarding the best route to development and the effectiveness of aid persists among prominent economists.

irstly, GDP does not capture production that occurs outside the transactional economy such as production within the household. It also fails to adequately capture ‘black market’ transactions, which account for a significant portion of economic transactions in the developing world. Therefore, accounting for the growth in these sectors of the economy could dramatically alter the levels of growth in developing countries relative to GDP. According to a 2002 account of the shadow economy by the International Monetary Fund, these sectors of the economy account for approximately 35-44% as a percentage of GDP in developing countries, and is as high at 77% in countries such as Nigeria. As a result, though the general direction of growth rates in Africa is often a source of debate, that these rates are inadequately captured by GDP is certain.

GDP fails to capture the numerous aspects of the economy – primarily political and social - thatare fundamental to development, particularly at the micro level.

PHOTO: Nasa/GSFC

However, the means of measuring development has remained constant despite these shifting policies. From year to year, a country’s development is determined by its annual GDP relative to previous years. Observing any one of the above mentioned development policies, gross domestic product (GDP) is often the standard measure of economic progress, and is used as proxy for development as a whole. GDP measures

macro-level economic activity and, for questions of development, it is often utilized as though it provides sufficient insight for the inner workings of the economy. While it is an incredibly useful tool, in reality GDP fails to capture the other political and social aspects of the economy that are fundamental to development, particularly at the micro level.

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econdly, as a measure of economic progress, GDP’s measurement is unconcerned with the externalities that are associated with the factors that boost the economy and, consequently, does not account for their actual aggregate impact. When using GDP as a measure of development, annual macroeconomic growth is encapsulated but annual variations in human development are unaccounted for. India, for example, has experienced significant economic growth, averaging annual GDP growth rate of 6% from 1980-2000 according to World Bank figures. Does that number provide information about occurrences within India over this period of time? If the primary concern is with measuring economic growth from year to year, then certainly it does. But what does it really tell us about India’s development? Engaging with the definition of development as factors that lead to growth, GDP by definition indicates the outcome of these factors. Thus, if we are concerned with development holistically, the number’s value diminishes significantly. There is no account

for the effects of that 6% growth on the Indian population. Coupled with this growth, India experienced a sharp rise in inequality according to a 2006 World Bank report. In this regard GDP informs little, if at all. If we want to measure India’s development, as GDP is rising, it cannot solely be an adequate indicator of development because it offers no insight of the effects of this growth for Indians. Incidents like the Bhopal disaster of 1984 in India further validate the point. The presence of the American-based Union Carbide plant would be a positively contributing factor to the measurement of GDP in 1984, however, the disaster that it caused to the people of Bhopal is completely omitted from the story of India’s development. Based on GDP, India is a

successfully developing country but beneath the surface the story is more complex. Ironically, the very indicators that are largely missing from development discourse are those that have a significant impact on the viability of long term economic development. Part of India’s success can also be attributed to its relative political stability which could be threatened in the long run by a continued rise in inequality. Economists concerned with development recognized these shortcomings of GDP measurement in the early 1980s. In response, Amartya Sen pioneered the capabilities approach to development, a people-centric, ability, and choice focused doctrine. Sen’s view

Ironically, the very indicators that are largely missing from development discourse are those that have a significant impact on the viability of long term economic development.

PHOTO: Oso

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of development employs the individual as the primary focus of development. This approach forces development to engage with individual costs and effects of yearly growth and the extent to which people within developing countries are in control of these decisions. The dramatic difference from a GDP-centric focus is obvious but it is certainly worth noting that this approach captures the factors of political and social freedoms that underpin the economic successes in more economically advanced societies. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) also launched the Human Development Index (HDI) in 1980. The founder of the Human Development Report, Mahbub ul Haq, stated that “people often value achievements that do not show up at or, or not immediately, in income or growth figures: greater access to knowledge, better nutrition and health services, more secure livelihoods, security against crime and physical violence, satisfying leisure hours, political and cultural freedoms and a sense of participating in community activities. The objective of development is to create an enabling

environment for people to enjoy long, healthy and creative lives.” To further advance this theory and combine it with Sen’s capabilities approach, it is these indicators of human development that foster the human capacity to contribute to the economy and hence stimulate growth. They are the underlying factors that determine whether and how hard the population is able to work. HDI has certainly been established as a form of measuring development but it still takes second place to the more conventional GDP measurement. There is much difficulty, however, with the quantitative aspect of these human development indicators. Certain indicators, such as infant mortality rates, are relatively easy to quantify but many other indicators are qualitative and potentially encounter problems of research bias.

about 5%. This study overcomes the shortcomings of GDP because it quantifies growth in a physical way and distinctly maps regional and national development in an unbiased way. These new and innovative approaches to measuring development are important because they have significant policy implications. Firstly, human development indicators are important because they inform about development at an individual level, which is arguably most important. That development, in turn, has significant implications for how people can contribute to their local economy, and their effect on national output. Increasing educational gaps, decreasing nutritional health and other human development indicators are important factors in productivity at a local level. Although these alternative measures cannot replace GDP as an informative and useful tool, it is important to ensure that they are given adequate consideration as indicators of what development looks like at an individual level. Most significantly, it is necessary to recognize that these different measures are not mutually exclusive but significantly complement one another. It is these

PHOTO: Emilio Labrador

Economists have been searching for solutions to this issue and Alwyn Young of the London School of Economics and Political Science took an alternate approach in his paper, The African Growth Miracle. Utilizing the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) statistics, which focus

primarily on health and population issues, he ascertains the level of increase of living standards in Sub-Saharan Africa. He concludes that SubSaharan Africa’s real household consumption is growing by 3.3% per annum which is a stark difference from international data, such as the Penn World Tables, that estimates growth of around 1%. A particularly innovative work by Brown University economists J. Vernon Henderson, Adam Storeygard and David N. Weil suggests that the measurement of economic activity from outer space can be used as a proxy for ascertaining growth in income over time. Using the observed amount of light from outer space as a proxy measurement for growth, they determine that the World Development Indicators (WDI), generated annually by the World Bank, either underestimate or overestimate country growth rates. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, for example, the WDI figure for GDP indicates negative growth of 2.6% per annum while Henderson et al. find positive growth of 2.4% per annum. Similarly, Mozambique’s growth rate is overestimated by the WDI at about 7.2% while Henderson et al. find growth per annum of

indicators of individual and human development that tell the story of importance because they highlight the impact on each individual within the society and provide information about ability to contribute to production at the national level - the variable that GDP seeks to measure. These indicators in combination with GDP give us a more complete picture of what is actually

happening in developing countries and, in turn, ensure that the policy prescriptions prescribed and applied based on these statistics have a greater chance of effectiveness.

Mofeyisayo Ayodele m.ayodele@lse.ac.uk

The London Globalist

18 Profitable Enterprises in a Period of Economic Uncertainty

Profitable Enterprises in a Period of Economic Uncertainty

PHOTO: Amirjina

Making money during tough times

uch attention is presently focused on the negative aspects of the global financial crisis. Public spending cuts as part of fiscal austerity programs, stagnant employment figures, the prospect of currency “wars” and the risk of reversion to protectionism are at the forefront of the minds of policy-makers and citizens alike. This is hardly surprising given the slow speed of recovery. The growth rates in most developed economies have collapsed into distinct L-shapes. The risk of a reversion into recession remains, creating uncertainty and considerable public debate. For most, the initially optimistic adage that one should never waste a good crisis has grown tiresome.

The consumption of both [anxiolytics and sleeping pills] appears to have increased markedly over recent years. For some, however, this adage has hardly lost its allure. For businesses and organisations which thrive in economic dire straits, there really is opportunity in a crisis. The textbook example of such businesses is those involved in the “sin industries.” In tough times, consumers tend to move away from large tickets items and into smaller, perhaps more sinful pleasures like chocolate, cigarettes and alcohol. The story goes that a typical household holds off from buying the new washing machine with a really fancy spin cycle, but makes themselves feel better by enjoying a fancy bottle of pinot from New Zealand. As a rough idea of how well the sin industries are performing, one can look to the Vice Fund. The Vice Fund invests in companies which derive revenue from tobacco, gambling, alcohol and defence. In the last five years it has

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outperformed its benchmark (the S&P 500) by almost one hundred percent. At the same time, large discount retailers tend to do well during tough economic times as consumers try to make their dollar go further. Shares in Walmart for example, received a lift during the crisis, rising from $43.60 in August 2007 to $62 by September the following year. There are also other industries which perform well during a crisis in a very high profile way. When there is uncertainty, investors tend to flock to gold which drives up demand for the commodity. Increased demand, all else constant, leads to increased price. Some investors made a fortune by moving to gold in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 as the events heralded a new era of uncertainty.

n fact, it is not unrealistic that many financial institutions themselves are in a position to profit in the wake of the crisis. While the period has been characterised, and indeed, brought about from the collapse of financial institutions, those that remain appear to be quickly returning to the status quo of large profits and big bonuses. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reported net revenues of $8.90

period in the previous year according to the BBC. Sunday Star Times and More4News found that ten accountancy firms providing insolvency services brought in 3 billion pounds from insolvency work in the two years leading up to the end of 2009. Yet equally unnoticed has been the increase in consumption of anxiolytic and sleeping

It is important to look beyond the unemployment figures and search out for those who are smiling during continued economic woes. PHOTO: Passer-by

economic woes and anxiety focused medication is an easy story to understand. In fact, there are concerns that the link may be exploited. It has been claimed that this occurred in Argentina during 2001. At that time, the country was experiencing its fourth year of recession. A domestic manufacturer of an anti-anxiety medication launched a campaign called “Anxiety Disorders Week.” The campaign was intended to inform the public about anxiety and involved considerable advertising in papers. An important result of campaign was that net income from antidepressants sales increased by 16.5% in twelve months. (CounterPunch vol.16,no.15: pp.1-4) Whether businesses are profiting or profiteering from the economic crisis deserves public scrutiny and attention. Equally important, however, is to consider the long term implications of the fact that these businesses are profiting. If their industries are the starting blocks of a recovery, it is important to know where the blocks are pointing. In many cases, they may be pointing in a positive direction. If the invisible hand of the market is funnelling investment and resources into technology in the repairs industry, a societal outcome may be less waste and products that go further. On the other hand, if investment decisions are being delayed to focus on short term consumables, ‘sinful’ goods or, to be redirected to bankers bonuses, the future capital stock of the economy will be compromised.

billion with net earnings of $1.9 billion for the third quarter of 2010. JPMorgan Chase reported net income of $4.4 billion for the same period. Less high profile success stories, but equally obvious as one walks down the street, are the repair businesses. The man who fixes the washing machine that the household didn’t replace is kept very busy trying to keep the thing going. Shoe repair businesses are seeing queues out the door and tailors are seeing resurgence in their business. Yet there are other industries whose recent positive performance has tended to go unnoticed. Take, for instance, insolvency practitioners. The economic woes have kept them very busy. In the last three months of 2008, there was a 220% rise in corporate insolvencies from the same

pills. Anxiolytics are medications used for the treatment of anxiety. Sleeping pills assist in getting to sleep or staying asleep. They are often used in combination or for similar purposes. The consumption of both appears to have markedly increased over recent years. The Telegraph reported that the NHS increased spending on sleeping pills by almost a fifth in the 2008-2009 year compared to previous years. Advertising Age reported that in a similar period in the United States, prescriptions for sleeping pills rose 7% and prescriptions for anti-depressants rose 15%. Whether these increases are a direct result of the prevailing economic conditions or merely part of an on-going increase in the use of such medication is up for debate. Yet the link between

There may be also social consequences as a higher proportion of the population become endusers of stress related medication. Whatever the case, the common theme is that it is worth keeping an eye on those businesses which are thriving during continued economic uncertainty because they will shape the economy and society which emerge. The products that their consumers are demanding - discount goods, repair services, anxiolytics - may well have long term implications. An exclusive focus on the negative aspects of our times will hide this view. Instead, we must look beyond the unemployment figures and search out for those who are smiling. A failure to do so will mean that we only have ourselves to blame when economic forces take us to another unexpected destination.

Tim Wilson t.p.wilson@lse.ac.uk The London Globalist

20 Currency War: Stuck in the Crossfire

PHOTO: Izahorsky

Currency War: Stuck in the Crossfire Currency wars are a part of what is described as a â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;beggar thy neighborâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; policy. And, when all countries engage in such policies, the result is a race to the bottom.The spectre of a currency war is looming.

against any country maintaining significant reserve holdings and undervalued currencies. This law implicitly targets Chinese exports. The Chinese yuan has been revalued by 2% against the dollar since early September 2010. Chinese officials warn of mass social upheavals should they acquiesce to Western demands by rapidly appreciating their currency by 40%. They argue that an enormous amount of Chinese workers would lose their jobs and migrant workers would be forced to return to the countryside, creating severe unrest. China insists that fundamental macroeconomic adjustments are in order, and that changes in the pattern of consumption and saving in the rich world would have a more powerful corrective impact on global imbalances than a yuan revaluation would. The second area of contention within the currency debate is the monetary policy adopted in developed economies, including in the United States, Britain and Japan. Interest rates in rich economies are at, or close to, zero levels. Central

banks, left with limited monetary tools, are resorting to quantitative easing to boost money supply. In particular, central banks are printing money to buy assets such as government bonds. Such measures tend to devaluate the currencies of the countries involved. In early November, the US Federal Reserve announced their second round of quantitative easing, or QE2. As expected, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at near-zero levels, but injected more stimulus into the economy. The stimulus instituted a program to purchase $600 billion of long-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011. This is an expected pace of about $75 billion per month. Whereas the dollar has declined, the euro has soared as officials in the European Central Bank show less affinity with such strategies. The third flash point is the spillover effect, as many emerging market economies confront a deluge of capital flow into their countries. As interest rates near zero in the developed world, investors seek to channel their capital abroad to emerging markets in search of higher returns. Caught in

the cross fire, emerging economies are left with unwanted currency appreciation and asset price inflation. The method by which these countries react to unruly international capital flow is important, as this would have further implications on the currency tension. Many emerging market governments have intervened to artificially depreciate their currency by purchasing foreign currency. Others have pursued a more rigorous approach by imposing restrictions on capital flow. Brazil for example, hiked up taxes imposed on foreign purchases of its domestic debt by 100%. Thailand introduced a levy of 15% tax on foreign investorsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; gains from its local bonds. Taiwan also enforced new restrictions on capital inflow. Several emerging market economies, as well as Japan, have intervened in currency markets to

To view the standoff as one between the western world and China only is to truly underestimate the nature of the problem. The London Globalist

Ever since Mr Mantega’s remarks hit the headlines, the currency clash has flared up like wildfire, recasting the global economy into a battlefield. So far this year, Japan, Brazil, South Korea, Taiwan, Peru, Argentina, Israel, and Switzerland have all engaged in currency manipulation measures, validating Brazilian concerns.

Above: Guido Mantega PHOTO: Ulisses Bardosa

n September 27th, Brazil’s finance minister, Guido Mantega, declared that an “international currency war” had erupted. He emphasized Brazil’s preparedness to use every means at its disposal to defend its currency. Brazil’s economy is suffering as the real gained 25% on the dollar since the beginning of last year, making it one of the world’s most overvalued currencies.

PHOTO: Made in China

export themselves out of recession. The result is that the overall aggregate level of demand is reduced as countries collectively compete to devalue their currencies. This demand deficiency is critical at this time, specifically as the process of global recovery from the aftermath of the 2008 crisis is still underway.

At the heart of this battle is plenty of finger pointing amongst countries trying to pin down the culprit. With global demand drying up, markets are jostling with each other, in an endless effort to appear the most attractive in the global market place. Weapons used for boosting competitiveness range from artificially low exchange rates to quantitative easing – referring to central banks pumping liquidity into the economy by purchasing government bonds and other assets. In fact, there are three correlated battles underlying the current currency fall-out. First, there is the relative weakness of the Chinese currency which is maintained by pegging

the Chinese yuan (also known as the renminbi) to the US dollar. The unwillingness of China to appreciate its currency is a major sticking point in the debate, specifically because the yuan’s undervaluation is perceived as a major contributor to the overall global imbalance. As an export-led economy, China engages in competitive devaluation. It artificially upholds low exchange rates in an effort to make its exports relatively cheaper than its competitors. These rates are maintained by active intervention of buying and selling currency in the foreign exchange market. The result is a considerable Chinese current account surplus due to competitive exports, coupled with enormous international reserve holdings due to active foreign exchange trading. Consequently, they contribute to the correspondingly large and unsustainable deficits elsewhere – the global imbalance. Disgruntled with China’s unfair trading practices, the United States has enacted a law allowing American companies to seek import protection

There are three correlated battles underlying the current currency fall-out. In fact, all of these three dynamics that underlie a currency war have existed for more than a decade. The magnitude of their concurrence and virulence is what determines global economic order, or indeed disorder. For now at least, these dynamics are still short of a full-blown currency war. Capital controls remain modest. The new round of quantitative easing by the US was not particularly welcomed by the emerging markets, nonetheless, no drastic measures were taken to preempt or counteract it. Amongst the rich economies, only Japan has engaged in direct currency intervention, and so far only once. Furthermore, there seems to be no strong indications of a decline into trade retaliation. Regardless, there remains no room for complacency and inaction. Sluggish growth in global demand is expected to last for years. As loose monetary policy continues in the rich world, the race for devalued currency as a source of demand will increase. The pressure on politicians to victimize China will rise. As for the rest of the developing world, with capital inflow on the rise, they may be left to choose between three evils:

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overheating economies and asset bubbles; weak trade competitiveness; and strict capital controls. What we need at this point is a global demand shift or rebalances. Specifically, rich economies need to be spending less and emerging market economies should be spending more. While structural reforms boost demand and spending in the emerging markets, real exchange rates in surplus economies must also appreciate. Weak currencies not only hurt the competition but also the country itself, as devaluation hinders growth from domestic consumption. To view the standoff as one between the western world and China only is to truly underestimate the nature of the problem. Emerging economies, stuck in the crossfire, are paying high costs for this deadlock. With South Korea hosting the G20 this November, multilateral efforts should be directed towards the debate. This war is better averted than fought.

Lara Suleiman l.suleiman@lse.ac.uk

22 Unwanted but Essential

Unwanted but Essential Illegal immigrants search for acceptance in a country that wants nothing to do with them

or one night this past May, the Phoenix Suns changed their names. The Arizona professional basketball team sported jerseys that read ‘Los Suns,’ a move meant to show solidarity with the state’s ever-growing Latino population. It was a novelty, certainly, to watch marquee players like Steve Nash and Amar’e Stoudemire sprint up and down the court in unfamiliar bright orange jerseys – and this in a game televised nationally on the evening of Cinco de Mayo, a Mexican heritage festival. But the move was truly stunning when observed in its proper social context; ‘Los Suns’ were one of the few groups publically supporting the Hispanic community in the midst of a torrent of anti-immigrant sentiment unleashed in the run-up to this year’s midterm elections. That sentiment was distilled into its purest form by SB1070, the onerous illegal immigration act signed into law by Arizona’s governor in April. The act was passed in a time of deep anxiety in the state, where exactly half of citizens believe that the flow of illegal immigration into the country should be halted entirely, according to a recent Gallup poll. In Arizona, high unemployment and crime rates were blamed on an influx of illegal immigrants from Mexico and elsewhere, who crossed the border in search of better jobs, schools, and livelihoods than they were likely to find in their homelands. SB1070 essentially made it a state crime to be an illegal immigrant. Those immigrants not in possession of papers proving their legal status were to be detained and, after a check of the federal immigration database, deported.

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A stringent law indeed, but what turned heads across the country – and the world – was the leeway given to Arizona’s police officers to scope out and arrest suspected illegals. All they need under the law is a ‘reasonable suspicion’ of a person’s illegal status to conduct a search and consult with federal authorities. Moreover, officers were compelled to check illegal status while enforcing unrelated laws, like traffic violations. All this smacked of racial profiling. What other reason could officers have to question the status of legal residents besides the hue of a suspect’s skin, or the hint of a foreign accent? After the U.S. Justice Department challenged the law in June, federal judge placed an injunction on the enforcement of these most controversial aspects o SB1070, citing the “substantial likelihood that officers [would] wrongly arrest illegal immigrants.” But Governor Jan Brewer has said she will fight to prove the law’s legality in the Supreme Court if she has to. Brewer’s hard-line stance is fairly representative of conservative politicians in the United States. A recent campaign advertisement of hers pegs a recent rise in kidnappings in Phoenix, the state capital, on illegal immigrants involved in the drug trade, and lambasts the Obama administration for

not adequately protecting the nation’s southern border. Arizona’s hand was forced, as Brewer and her followers claim, by federal inaction on the immigration issue. Brewer, a Republican, won reelection by a large margin on November 2nd. She was virtually a political unknown (she got the Arizona governor’s job after the previous holder accepted a position in the Obama cabinet) before she signed SB1070 and campaigned on her tough anti-immigrant platform. Indeed, this year’s election season has shown just how much the question of illegal immigration has permeated the nation’s consciousness. Sharon Angle, a candidate with massive support from the politically resonant Tea Party movement, mounted a serious challenge to Harry Reid, the Democratic Senate leader in Nevada, basing much of her campaign on the supposed illegal threat to America. One of her campaign commercials ties illegals to high unemployment and calls Reid “the best friend an illegal alien ever had.” Meanwhile in New Mexico, a state perched alongside Arizona on the Mexican border, a

Hispanic candidate, Susana Martinez, won the governorship on a stringent anti-illegal immigration platform that involves denying drivers’ licenses to illegal immigrants and preventing the children of illegals access to statefunded university scholarships. One of Martinez’s commercials shows her standing on the American side of the U.S.-Mexico border, pointing to the “murder capital of the world” on the other side of the border fence. Perhaps the purest expression of anti-immigrant fervor can be found in the tactics of Sheriff Joe Arpaio, of Maricopa County in Arizona. Touting his reputation for being ‘America’s Toughest Sheriff,’ Arpaio is known for his harsh treatment of all inmates, particularly those associated with illegal immigration and the Mexican drug trade. Even before the passage of SB1070, the sheriff, who has been elected to five terms of office since 1992, has been carrying out highly publicized crackdowns on illegal immigration, using routine traffic stops, for example, to search vehicles for hiding illegal immigrants. Sheriff Arpaio says he has rounded up some 30000 illegals since 2005, a figure that remains unconfirmed by outside sources. His Tent City Jail, a seventeenyear-old project, houses inmates in what his

Indeed, this year’s election season has shown just how much the question of illegal immigration has permeated the nation’s consciousness.

website describes a massively successful “canvas incarceration compound” in which the inmates are forced to wear pink underwear and handcuffs. The unique color helps keep track of “inventory”, says the Sheriff.

PHOTO: Luca Penati

The passage of SB1070, despite the federal injunction, has contributed to an expansion of Sheriff Arpaio’s ambitions. He has long employed volunteer ‘posses,’ groups of volunteer officers who assist in various crackdowns against drugs and immigration. Now Arpaio wants a separate posse – a 58th group in total – to focus solely on implementing the new law. This kind of volunteer, almost vigilante justice group is reminiscent of the controversial Minuteman Project in which armed volunteers patrolled the border to deter – and if necessary, to forcibly prevent – illegal immigrants

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from entering the country. Arpaio recently opened a ‘Section 1070’ in Tent City specifically designed to house illegal immigrants captured by his office and his posses in conjunction with the immigration act (though it is presumably empty today because of the ongoing legal issues). It is unclear exactly what has sparked the recent anti-immigrant fervor in the country. Certainly issues of fairness and fiscal constraints seem to play a role, as Americans wonder why illegal immigrants should benefit from a multitude of taxpayer-funded services like emergency room medical care. (In fact, one of the loudest outcries over the recently passed Democratic health care bill was related to the unfounded claim that illegal immigrants would benefit from the act without incurring any of its costs.)

National security is another obvious issue, but one that seems more related to specific counterterrorism policies rather than a blanket policy restricting movement across national borders. Some controversial politicians and scholars in the past decade have criticized immigration – illegal and otherwise – for diluting American culture and identity. Historian Samuel Huntington, for instance, argued that the slow pace of Mexican immigrants’ assimilation to American culture would contribute to the deterioration of the country’s traditional values and identity. Wages of low-skilled workers in the U.S. have decreased, prompting politicians to latch on to the fairly uncontroversial platform of protecting American workers. And as the midterm campaigns make clear, illegal immigration is also being blamed for – or at least linked to – job losses and high crime rates.

More disturbingly, illegal immigrants, long portrayed by politicians – particularly conservatives – as sneaky and conniving, are often fitted into a narrative that places them in opposition to ‘hardworking American citizens,’ contributing in large part to a new sort of nativist attitude in the country. After all, what other reasons would individuals have to give up their day jobs and join vigilante border patrols like the Minuteman Project or Arpaio’s posse? Indeed, the Southern Poverty Law Center, a civil rights organization, identified the Minuteman Project as an extremist nativist group following the involvement of one of its chapters in the 2009 double-murder of a Latino man and his young daughter in Arizona. Although the head of the Project denounced the act, he expressed disappointment and concern at the feverish extremist element that he argued had taken

control of what was meant to be a nonviolent organization. The SPLC has recorded an 80% increase in nativist extremist groups in 2009 alone, to 309 from 173 a year before. The anti-immigrant fervor engendered by politicians is particularly surprising when considering the value of illegal immigrants to the American economy. Immigration increases the labor supply and raises factor productivity – that is, the efficiency with which resources like capital or land or used. Gordon Hanson, a professor of economics at the University of California, San Diego, estimates that immigration actually increases overall GDP in the United States, and claims that a higher level of immigration would boost GDP by a substantial amount.

Distortion in the political arena is stirring up tension among Latinos in America, illegal or otherwise. PHOTO: Fibonacci Blue

five immigrant students, including three illegal immigrants, staged a sit-in at the office of Senator John McCain, the former presidential candidate, after he revoked his sponsorship of a bill known as the Dream Act, which would provide the children of illegal immigrants a path to citizenship. The Senator changed his longtime stance on the bill after facing stiff competition in the Republican primary for his senate seat from an opponent with a far stricter view on immigration law. Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrested the three undocumented students, and a hearing is currently pending. Perhaps the most distressing thing about illegal immigrants like those three students is the fact that so little is really known about them; they are secretive out of both fear and necessity. But recent protests like the one in support of the Dream Act suggest that, more and more, young illegal immigrants, brought to the country as children, are beginning to speak up. The New York Times reports that DreamActivist, a student-run advocacy and support group, has become more vocal as its members – mainly young undocumented students – find few options available to them in the real world,

even after completing their studies at university. Banking on the passage of the Dream Act in a few years time, undocumented graduates of the University of California, Los Angeles are taking menial jobs well below their qualifications, simply because nothing else is available. The report suggests a conflicted mixture of fear, anger, and hope among young immigrants as they search for their own slice of the American Dream in the face of so much political opposition. Legal immigrant and native-born Latinos, meanwhile, have been able to make their mark on the immigration issue through the polls. Early polling suggested that Latinos might be too disillusioned with politics to even bother showing up at the polls on Election Day. Thankfully this did not happen. Latinos came out in reportedly unprecedented numbers, and are credited with keeping the Senate firmly under Democratic control, and defeating immigration hardliners like Angle and California’s Carly Fiorina in the process. Indeed, Latinos demonstrated a strong preference against candidates like Angle. And even though Latinos have never been a homogenous demographic when it comes to politics, they generally support a path to legal

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status for undocumented immigrants, according to the Pew Hispanic Center. Thus, candidates like Susan Martinez in New Mexico may have won based on their immigration platforms, but they did so with little support from the Latino community. Still, the election results in Arizona demonstrate that the tide of public opinion is yet to turn in favor of pro-immigration causes, and comprehensive immigration reform still looks to be years away. Governor Brewer is still in charge of a state that has only become more volatile on immigration issues. Democrats lost one of their many house seats here, a bad omen for passage of the Dream Act anytime soon, and McCain has had to drift further to the right in order to hold onto his longtime Senate seat. Even Raul Grijalva, a popular Democratic congressman, faced a serious challenge in a race that was thought to be a cakewalk earlier this year. Those bright orange jerseys may be worn a few more times in Phoenix in the coming months, but it looks as though for the time being, ‘Los Suns’ will be the only ones wearing them.

Ravi Mahesh r.mahesh@lse.ac.uk

Illegal immigrants are also responsible for taking on jobs that few others will. Author and columnist Gregory Rodriguez points out that the number of low-skilled American workers continues to fall – from half of working-age adults in 1960 to just eight percent today – meaning that some group must fill the void. A Pew Hispanic Center study reports that almost forty percent of the U.S.’s brick masons and drywall installers, and almost thirty percent of its dishwashers, maids and housekeepers are in the country illegally. As Rodriguez argues, illegal immigrants have become such a fundamental part of American society that the backlash against them is, at best, highly hypocritical. Illegal immigrants thus find themselves portrayed politically as antagonists in a country that simultaneously depends on their social

contributions. For example, Arpaio, the Arizona sheriff, commented to ABC’s Nightline that even though illegal immigrant labor “probably” had a hand in the construction of his own home, he didn’t care and would continue to publicize his various anti-immigration exploits. He isn’t the only elected official with apparent ties to undocumented workers. Consider the case of Nicky Diaz, a former housekeeper for California Republican gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman. Whitman’s campaign was based in part on her staunch opposition to any sort of amnesty for illegal immigrants. But the message was undercut by the revelation that Diaz was herself an illegal immigrant, along with accusations that Whitman herself had known about her housekeeper’s illegal status since 2003 but had done nothing.

For her part, Whitman says that she promptly fired Diaz after hearing the housekeeper’s confession only last year. Whitman later added that Diaz, whom she had once likened to a family member, deserved to be deported for her crime. She went on to lose the election to her Democratic rival, whom she accused of exploiting the issue unfairly. It is, however, difficult to study the facts of the situation and not wonder whether Whitman was simply playing politics. Indeed, if the allegations that Whitman had information about her housekeeper’s status for six years prior to firing her are true, there appears to be a very large gap between her political response to the issue and her social one. This kind of distortion in the political arena is stirring up tension among Latinos in America, illegal or otherwise. This past May

26 Islamic Feminism - an Oxymoron?

Islamic Femin “In the ghettos of the intellect and idealistic theories, there are a lot of intolerant and racist people who do not realize that they are.”

Above: Tariq Ramadan

PHOTO: The Quest for Meaning

ersonal encounters and stories are much appreciated in gender studies. So, this article also begins with a personal ‘I’ story. At a gender conference a few years ago, outside the conference hall on a vast notice-board, a small crowd of hopped-up women were scribbling on bits of paper some of their experiences, to pin up and share with the rest of the gathered there. The theme was ‘A time I felt isolated...’ The reason for being there was to learn something new and offer my experiences was so I felt obliged to share something too. But while glaring at the pink sticky note in front of me I glanced at the other women’s thoughts and increasingly felt out of place. With a background of spiteful notes regarding boyfriends, husbands, sexist employers, abuse, violence and misogyny, the list was long and painful. The only thought which circulated

PHOTO: Yan Boechat

in my head was ‘I feel like I am with a group of people who speak a language I don’t understand’. Disaster...I had gone through my share of troubled times too...why couldn’t I write about abuse as well, or something at least remotely related to the concerns of the other conferees? I had lived in the relatively conservative society of Kuwait for twelve years amongst Arab and Muslim friends, both male and female while staying in touch with their families. I fundamentally disagreed with the views expressed at the conference that Muslim women were oppressed, isolated from society and in need of rescuing. Isolated and in strong disaccord with feminist proclamations at that conference, I shunned feminism until a couple of years later. My interest in the Middle East and Islam landed me into a class on Islam and Modernity. ‘Islamic feminism’ popped up and I told myself, let’s give it another try. A significant segment of North Atlantic consciousness is dominated by a focus

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on the radical interpretations of Islam’s principles by Muslims. The rupture created by 9/11 led to the awakening and proliferation of sweeping generalisations about Islam, already existent and dormant in North Atlantic consciousness. At a point in time when the connotations of anything as ‘Islamic’ conjure up popular images of veiled women trying to escape their God-ordained destiny to live under treacherous conditions, a term such as Islamic feminism could indeed, as many of its critics proclaim, seem to be an oxymoron. The controversial and conservative post-revolutionary Iranian context further supports the paradox in combining Islam and women’s rights or gender equality. The common presumption is that Islam provides Iranian society with an undemocratic and patriarchal framework. Consequently, an ‘Islamic’ feminist discourse must surely espouse and reinforce this framework. Moreover, the supporters of such a discourse

nism must be entangled in a false consciousness, whereby they do not realise their own oppression. One of the most common reactions to women’s involvement in Islamist discourses is that they are trapped in a grand patriarchal plan and, if freed from this prison, would naturally express their instinctual abhorrence for the traditional Islamic customs used to enchain them. Yet, do we understand Islamic feminism, before libelling it? To my mind, there are two central issues which deserve attention. First, the Iranian politicohistorical context is vital to understanding how the feminist agenda took shape.

- an Oxymoron? by men. These changes altered the normative context of patriarchy thereby increasing the affinity to conservative ideologies as a means to compensate for the social changes. The search for an alternative cultural modernity shaped by Islamic norms intensified. The end-result of this social dissatisfaction eventually culminated in the Islamic Revolution of 1979 led by Ayatollah Khomeini, supported by the moderate Islamic Left. However, the much supported revolution, and the subsequent democratic election of an Islamic government, soon took an unexpected turn as the modernist and reformist supporters of Khomeini were expelled from government. The result was the imposition of a patriarchal shariabased legal system with negative consequences for women’s involvement in society. The Pahlavi modernist era and the Islamic revolutionary era did however share a common view of women as the carriers and preservers of the morals within the community. The Pahlavi regime used women to contrast the backwardness of Islamic traditions and norms in comparison to the West. For example, unveiling was proclaimed a sign of modernisation. The instantiation of misogyny in foreign societies has commonly been used by westerners to debase ‘Other’ societies and impose western models of governance and inter-societal relations – recall the irony Gayatri

Contextualising Islamic Feminism

he turbulent years of the 20th century were marked by the excessive will of the Pahlavi regime (1925-1979) to imitate and institute a Western modernity in Iran – the White Revolution. Hence, the term westoxification, and the diseaselike ‘westernitis’, were coined to denote the Shah’s pro-Western servility. The imposition from above of modernity’s institutional structures and ideological canons succeeded in marginalising large sectors of Iranian society which did not fit into these ideological and cultural structures. Socioeconomic transformations, due to the modern restructuring of economic frameworks in these societies, led to increasing social inequalities, the dislocation of communities, intensified migratory patterns and most importantly the massive influx of women into the labour market which was traditionally dominated

PHOTO: Kombiz

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Spivak captured in white men pretending to save brown women from brown men. Solidarity with women in these cases is based on condescension and acts of western ‘generosity’ towards foreign women. So, secular feminists in post-revolutionary Iran became associated with the attempts of the Shah to disintegrate Muslim values. They became entrapped in a ‘double betrayal’ as they couldn’t stop struggling for changes in patriarchal laws, but neither could they continue struggling lest society would reject them as traitors to the national identity. Thus, women needed to locate alternative civil social spaces through which to influence government policies. As attempts at secular feminist discourse became increasingly impracticable and dangerous in post-revolutionary Iran, the imposition of the sharia-based legal order led to increasing discontent amongst women and men who felt that their religion did not force them to abide by the Islamic scriptural interpretations of others. In order to engage with the new Islamic regime in Iran, and to create a new venue for women’s participation, Iranian secular feminism transformed into a progressive religious discourse: often termed Islamic feminism. The adherents assert their presence by carving out a new venue for participation through the challenging of the

traditionally male-dominated sphere of Islamic exegesis.

Interpretation

estern feminist approaches often pay insufficient attention to the rich jurisprudential methods of religious text interpretation. Most notably the distinction in Islamic legal thought between sharia and fiqh is of paramount importance to Islamic feminist methodology. Fiqh is the philosophy of law and is based on attempts to extract legal norms from the original Islamic sources. Essentially exegesis, fiqh is performed by humans and is therefore liable to be erroneous. The fallibility of fiqh makes it subject to change based on novel reinterpretations of the sharia. On the other hand, the sharia is sacred, universal and eternal. When in popular political and academic discourses the two concepts are equated, claims arise that particular interpretations and legal applications of the sharia are the sharia itself. In fact, they

are the extrapolations as a result of fiqh. The distinction between the two concepts underlies the emergence of various schools of Islamic law and within them a multiplicity of positions and opinions. It is this flexibility in interpretation which encourages and enables Islamic feminists to argue for gender justice within the framework of Islam. This is also why the term ‘Islamic’ is placed in front of feminist: they engage in in-depth studies of the infallible sharia in order to extrapolate an alternative and, in their opinion, truer essence of gender equality in Islam. The discourse does have internal and structural limitations. The first limitation is due to its sole focus on the exegesis of Islamic sources. The firmly rooted authoritative interpretations of Scripture from well-established schools of thought are extremely difficult to overcome. There will always be competing interpretations of the religious texts and it comes down to the power of the social forces supporting a particular interpretation, which will determine its dominance in society. That isn’t a reason to give up on Islamic feminist thought however. The process of re-interpretation is slow and arduous, but change can be achieved with persistence. The second conceptual limitation of the Islamic feminist discourses is that the movement sees itself as a civil society movement in binary opposition to the state. Indeed, it is a civil society

PHOTO: The Blue Grasshopper

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movement, but it is an outgrowth of the Iranian Islamic state. The Islamic regime has to an extent opened the gates to the public sphere of this intellectual movement. Islamic feminism has made good use of modern publication opportunities to express its views. The independent women’s magazine Zanan is an example in point. Established in 1992, it became renowned for its ability to encourage women to think about the gendered construction of womanhood and challenge conservative gendered policies. The magazine also mounted support for the reformist strand in the Iranian political spectrum, playing a significant role in mobilising women to vote in the 1997 presidential elections for the moderate candidate Mohammed Khatami. However, the Zanan came to its existence under the conservative regime. Shahla Sherkat established it after her dismissal from the more conservative Zan-i-Rus magazine due to her growing modernist, western and feminist tendencies. Sherkat gained permission for the opening of Zanan due to her good relations with the clergy. This shows that Sherkat, in her private capacity, had developed personal acquaintances and relations with influential individuals at the time eventually enabling her to create a magazine on offer to the wider public. Thus, in essence the magazine was not circumventing of the government, but instead, an outgrowth of it resulting from the fluid boundaries between the public and private moulded through personal

PHOTO: See Wah

relationships. The Iranian government ordered the closure of the magazine in 2008 further proving that the government still has a firm hand over the public sphere. The second issue which arises when thinking of secular/islamic feminism is the propensity to essentialise women through the logic of a universal reason. This is inherent in secular western feminist thought. Thus, the crux of the problem with the classification of Islamic feminism as an oxymoron is the assumption that all Muslim women must have an inherent will which predisposes them to the opposition of practices and values which Islam embodies. This approach serves to essentialise both women and Islam. It bereaves women of their complex, socially constructed natures and denies their different histories, expressions of different circumstances, and manifestations of differently structured desires which they carry in themselves. There are women who support the current exegeses used by the conservatives in Iran and would not imagine themselves as governed by a Western model of women’s rights. A legal rule whereby husbands were deemed responsible for the care of their wives and children might be welcomed by women. Not just because they need security, but because their framework of reference is different from other women. Why is it never supposed that for some it is normal and acceptable to be taken care of without willing to be ‘liberated’? The relationship between men and women is always seen as a battlefield, never as one of harmony and understanding with mutual care and allocation of responsibilities. The Islamic feminist movement is an intellectual adaptation and an innovative way to deal with

the particular interpretation of Islam in Iran. But, it isn’t only a means to an end. The movement captures a much deeper and inner level of selfidentity. It places ‘belief’ at the centre of a man/ woman’s identity instead of building a career, having independence or ‘freedom’ in a Western sense. Instead of binary oppositions between male/female, it takes into account reciprocities of influence whereby male/female inhabit spaces and these spaces interact and exert influence over each other in a variety of ways. In doing so, the discourse allows for a different notion of freedom to exist, one inconceivable in Western feminist discourses. The familial ethos, for example, is recognised as a central institution providing nurture and mutual respect ordering hierarchies of values and morals supported within a rich framework of religious and cultural heritage. At the same time, the family offers spaces for interpersonal communication and trust building which shapes the individual. In some ways, movements such as the one in Iran, or the Piety movement in Egypt, are a reaction against the spread of a Western cultural modernity with its increasing ‘commodification’ of the body, focus on outer beauty and consumerism. It is recognition that the support for women’s rights can be a thinly shrouded element of Western cultural imperialism in the form of a ‘commercialised’ patriarchy (which some women in the West have rejected). Issue must be taken with secular feminism’s stubbornness, akin to neoliberal self-righteousness. It does not seek to build cultural bridges of understanding and does not appreciate the rich intellectual thought developing despite stringent prohibitions on freedom of expression and speech in countries such as Iran. Western feminism is in need of re-

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evaluating itself and noting its limitations. This will open up the potential for understanding other frameworks of reason. Its beliefs stifle its ability to challenge itself and accept criticism – it becomes arrogant as it lacks humility. Arrogance in turn closes the spaces within which curiosity and self-critique can lead to answering questions without imposing universal answers to them. This self-cultivation and self-adjustment can lead to the opening up of novel spaces within western feminism’s proponents and grant them a novel kind of liberty – the ability to acknowledge the finitude of Western political visions through other perspectives and strive for self-improvement. After all, who decides what empowerment is?

Silvia Peneva s.peneva@lse.ac.uk

30 Why Would Iran Want to Seek Nuclear Weapons?

Why would Iran want to seek

Nuclear Weapo Despite the West’s considerable diplomatic efforts at containing the Iranian nuclear program, Tehran holds logical motivations for building the bomb, including a worsening geo-political environment, gaining increased regional stature and leverage and creating an effective substitute for its limited conventional capabilities.

or many common Iranians, it is a source of immense national pride. The international community thinks otherwise. For nearly a decade, a tense diplomatic stand-off between Iran and the major powers has been raging in the corridors of the United Nations. The West, led by the United States, accuses Iran of building nuclear weapons under the guise of its nuclear enrichment program. Tehran denies such accusations and maintains that its uranium enrichment is for civilian energyproduction. The international diplomatic tussle has led to four rounds of UN Security Council sanctions prohibiting Iran from acquiring equipment, technology and finance to support its nuclear activities. Tehran’s secrecy and lack of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency have fuelled such concerns. Despite the strategic ambiguity regarding the nuclear program’s goals, there are several credible motivations for an Iranian bomb, including worry over the deteriorating regional security environment, desire for increased regional stature and leverage and providing a substitute for limited conventional capabilities.

Deteriorating Regional Strategic Environment

istorically, Tehran’s most compelling strategic rationale for acquiring weapons of mass destruction stemmed from its arch-nemesis Iraq. The bloody Iran-Iraq war along with Saddam’s development and use of chemical weapons against Iranian forces hardened Tehran’s resolve to develop a fitting deterrence against immediate and distant threats. While the danger of Saddam’s Iraq subsided, Iran’s ruling Ayatollahs glance around nervously at a new threatening strategic reality – the increasing American military presence in the region. The extension of US proximate power in Afghanistan and Iraq, combined with a network of bases and significant naval presence in the Persian Gulf, reinforces the isolation and encirclement the Islamic Republic has faced since the 1979 Revolution. Add to this a heavily nuclearised neighbourhood with regional powers such as Russia, China, India, Pakistan and Israel holding existing nuclear arsenals. Although Tehran’s relations with China, Russia

and India are deepening, ties with immediate neighbour Pakistan have been strained by disputes over Afghanistan and the increasing sectarian violence in Pakistan. However in recent years, Israel has emerged as the biggest thorn in Tehran’s side due to its bitter opposition to the Iranian nuclear program. This is compounded by the Islamic Republic’s hard-line rhetoric calling for the Jewish state to be ‘wiped off the map’ and persistent support of Hamas and Hezbollah as a means of gaining strategic leverage in the Arab-Israeli conflict. Menaced by Tehran’s threats, Israel has notched up the escalating duel by dispatching its nuclear-equipped Dolphin-class submarines to the Persian Gulf, and has repeatedly threatened to strike Iranian nuclear facilities à la Osirak . In such a precarious strategic environment, the Iran may have no choice but to build a credible nuclear arsenal

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to deter any possible American or Israeli miscalculation.

Increased Regional Stature and Leverage

he quest for nuclear weapons would also be aimed at projecting Iran as the dominant power in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East. Long viewed as a signalling automatic entry to the great power club, nuclear weapons symbolise national prestige and technological prowess. In the Iranian case, it would be a fitting testament to the brilliance and technical sophistication of the ancient Persian civilisation. Interestingly, the Iranian nuclear program was kick-started under the muchmaligned Shah, who had no qualms about advertising his ambitions of catapulting Iran into the ranks of major powers. The pursuit of atomic

power would make Tehran the only nuclear power in the Middle East after Israel and the second in the Muslim World after Pakistan, an honourable distinction for the country’s Islamic leadership.

Advertisement from the 1970’s by American nuclear-power companies

Importantly, Iranian policy-makers are aware that a nuclear Iran can not only deter an external invasion but also gain significant leverage vis-à-vis Western powers. The North Korean model lends some credibility to this theory. As developments on the Korean Peninsula seem to hint, a presumed nuclear capability may not only avert a pre-emptive American strike but possibly generate its own set of economic rewards and future security guarantees,. The long and painful history of foreign intervention in Iran is also a poignant reminder of the need to preserve the country’s independence in the face of foreign aggression, a point fervently raised by the Islamic Republic. In 2008, renowned foreign affairs reporter Seymour Hersh claimed that the United States operated a shadowy $400 million covert operation in Iran,

Right:

PHOTO: AZRainman

? ons

with authorisation from Democratic congressional leaders, which included gathering intelligence about Iran’s nuclear program and supporting the minority Ahwazi Arab and Baluchi groups and other dissident organisations. While the bomb would be unable to deter such activities completely, Persian nationalists see it as the undisputable symbol of their self-reliance, independence, and standing on the global stage.

Substitute for Limited Conventional Capabilities

nother less-cited motivation for Tehran to build atomic weapons is that such a capability acts as a key substitute for its limited conventional forces. Despite its exorbitant cost, building nuclear weapons is easier and cheaper than purchasing and maintaining hi-tech weaponry. This is especially relevant as the Iranian military-industrial complex suffers from decades-old military sanctions that prohibit the supply of specific arms and technology. Tehran’s significant investment in long-range missiles

with the assistance of North Korea is a direct consequence of this arms embargo. The nuclear option would allow Iran to compensate for its weak conventional forces including dilapidated fighters and surface-to-air missiles. Additionally, this complements the growing asymmetric capabilities of the Iranian armed forces forming the mainstay of the country’s military doctrine during future conflicts.

A Disastrous Post-Nuclear Scenario

owever, a nuclear Iran could have devastating consequences for the region. Indeed, a unilateral Israeli or a joint US-Israeli military strike to take out Iranian nuclear facilities could spark a wider regional war. During his September visit to the annual UN General Assembly meet, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad warned that U.S.-supported Israeli air strikes against Iran would be considered an act of war that “would know no boundaries”. Such a war is likely to precipitate a major global energy crisis leading to rocketing oil prices from Lima to Vladivostok. A nuclear-armed Iran could also trigger a destabilising nuclear arms race as embattled regional rivals Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt would start building their own nuclear arsenals to deter Tehran. Although the nightmare scenario of Iranian ‘extremists’ wiping Israel off the map is remote due to the defensive mindset of Tehran’s strategic planners, the possibility of fissile materials landing in the hands of groups such as Hezbollah is dangerously real. The Islamic Republic has been known to supply sophisticated long-range missiles to its Lebanese proxy in the past. In December 2009, a war games simulation by the Brookings

Institution replicating the consequences of an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities turned more than a few heads. The provocative scenario depicted a wide-scale regional war that sucked in Washington, its Arab allies in the Gulf as well as regional Iranian proxies. The aftermath culminated in a stalemate as conventional Iranian forces suffered significant losses with debates breaking out over the Iranian nuclear program’s true extent of destruction. Expectedly Tehran’s scattered facilities and engineering leadership allowed for a possible resurgence of its nuclear activities in the future. While Tehran seems to have strong motivations to seek nuclear weapons, there is a clear and present danger of provoking an armed response from either the United States or Israel. A nuclear arms race is a possible long-term consequence that could further undermine the regional security situation and encourage a web of complex alliances and polarisation between rival powers. Tehran’s dangerous game of nuclear brinksmanship is a bluff that could either produce a convincing deterrent or invite regional destruction. Therefore, it would be wise for the country’s leaders to be more pragmatic and transparent about their nuclear ambitions. In response, the international community should allay Iran’s security concerns and provide assistance for its legitimate energy needs within the framework of Tehran’s rights as a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. A failure to engage Iran, on the threshold of nuclear break-out, will only push the region further into another grievous cycle of hostility and destruction.

Brijesh Khemlani brijesh_87@hotmail.com

32 Think Locally, Act Globally: NATO’s New Strategic Concept

Think Locally Act Globally: NATO’s New Strategic Concept

Change is afoot in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. In November 2010 the Alliance released a new Strategic Concept, its third in nearly as many decades. Although most attention was focused on NATO’s plan for ballistic missile defense and the 2014 headline transfer date for Afghanistan, both unveiled at the same time, the Strategic Concept deserves more attention. It is a very ambitious document. It focuses existing and stakes out new areas of NATO activity. Perhaps most importantly, it extends NATO onto global scale to fulfill its mission. NATO’s newfound global ambition aside, the Strategic Concept also suggests that Alliance will be very cautious in exercising this new mandate.

Above: Reak ground in New headquaters building

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PHOTO: USACE Europe District

n many ways the Concept will not surprise NATOwatchers. It contains what one would expect it to contain. Collective defense of NATO members and Alliance values are reaffirmed as the core of the Alliance. The usual suspects - NATO-Russia relations, crisis management, conventional defense - make their appearance, with little new substance added to them. It also reflects the flavors of the month, with cyber-security and missile defense securing prominent roles in the document. However, the document does enshrine a fair amount of new elements.IIf one word were to describe NATO’s new Strategic Concept it would be ‘global.’

ore so than ever before, it makes explicit the connection between Euro-Atlantic security and global instability. Threats, both conventional and non-conventional to the EuroAtlantic can all manifest themselves globally. Moreover, the security of the ‘global commons,’ such as sea lanes, communications and energy infrastructure, is also of critical importance. Therefore, to defend itself NATO will need to, on occasion, act globally. In uncommonly bold terms, the Concept refers to the need for flexible “expeditionary forces” - quite the contrast to its 1999 incarnation of ‘non-Article 5 missions.‘ This extended global scope is apparent in its choice of partners. Now, NATO is willing to

foster partnerships with potentially any state or organization for achieving likeminded purposes. Indeed, NATO is going global. Yet, NATO will exercise this global strategy selectively, preferring a combination of tackling high risk security threats with low political risks. It is hard to envision NATO rushing off to new expeditionary operations in the near future. The protracted engagement in Afghanistan has taught NATO that global operations are difficult and unpopular, even if essential. The ability to project force on a global

scale is pivotal to meeting future threats for NATO. To be best able to do so the Concept calls for flexible and efficient future military forces. Having such “plug-and-play” tools compatible with territorial defense is an expensive proposition, prohibitively so in an increasing price conscious NATO facing pressure to cut down on costs. Combined with fiscal pressure, a major constraint on past and present NATO operations has been the lack of civil-military and purely civilian tools to achieve its goals; its efforts to replicate these capabilities have

PHOTO: IsafMedia

the demerits of redundancy and limited successful. The new Concept increasingly delineates NATO’s realm of action away to essentially military issues: force deployment, and thwarting integral challenges to military security such as ballistic missiles and cyber attacks. Although NATO will maintain the capability to act against high risk security threats, it will prefer acting on issues that contain less risk (such as cyberdefense). From this stems the much vaunted “comprehensive approach.” An admittedly vague term, it affirms that NATO’s military strengths need complementary capabilities and that these capabilities cannot all be found from within NATO. Closely tied to this is NATO’s newfound desire for extensive partnerships with other organizations and states. Partnership has both financial and operational benefits. Joint action with local and regional partners is far more affordable than developing global capabilities. NATO’s legitimacy has

If one word were to describe NATO’s new Strategic Concept it would be ‘global.’

Above: Nato’s Supreme Allied Commander Visits Afghanistan

suffered from an impression of unilateral action; multilateral action with partners diffuses both political and military risks and bolsters. Formal partnership frameworks, such as the Mediterranean Dialogue or the Partnership for Peace, have failed to elicit excitement; those countries eager to cooperate have do so, others included for geopolitical niceties have not - by offering flexible frameworks and political influence, the Concept makes partnership more appealing. Partnership, in myriad forms, is a way for NATO to reconcile costs with ambitious aims, and to diffuse

responsibilities for international action. Tied to this focus on developing partnerships is a shift to emphasize NATO’s political dimension as embodiment of transatlantic relations, and, for the lack of a better word, the Western world. Although NATO’s door remains open for new members it is closing. The European character of future aspirants is emphasized, making it clear that although NATO’s reach may be global its membership will not be. While NATO may envision itself as a global hub for security, ultimately, NATO is a regional organization.

The possibilities and need for political engagement on a variety of issues by NATO with external actors are illustrated at length. A political NATO has several advantages for the Alliance; political engagement beyond the Euro-Atlantic has a much lower threshold than military activity. In addition, when compared to military activity, political engagement has the added benefits of carrying less risk and fewer obligations. NATO’s new Strategic Concept does get many things right. It melds ambitions and reality in the way a long-term strategy should. It is readable. It is far and beyond a better framework that its antecedent. Yet NATO is likely to be very cautious in applying this new sense of purpose. Although

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it conceives global realm of action, its potential will be utilized selectively, either where a major threat is present or action is low risk. In focusing on what it does best - military tools - NATO hopes to cultivate partnerships with states and organizations that can provide necessary complementary elements; partnership is also a means to emphasize NATO as a political alliance, and a low risk way for NATO to advance its interests. The package presented in the new Strategic Concept is intended to present a realistic way to advance Euro-Atlantic security, but also make it more palatable for domestic audiences. Nonetheless, while NATO may think locally, it will act globally.

Mikko Patokallio m.h.patokallio@lse.ac.uk

34 In the Eye of the Beholder: Beijing and Tehran’s Nuclear Ambitions

In the Eye of Beijing and As Western states seek to pursue tougher sanctions on Tehran with American leadership, Beijing has been perceived as reluctant to present a strong unified front against Iranian nuclear ambitions despite consistent statements emanating from Beijing that emphasize its commitment to the international non-proliferation regime and stability in the Middle East.

PHOTO: Daniela Zalcman Above: President of Iran - Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at Columbia University

or many Western policymakers such comments - considering Tehran’s support for armed nonstate actors, President Ahmadinejad’s fiery anti-Israeli rhetoric and a rejectionist policy vis-à-vis the Middle East Peace Process – are seen as empty words wrapped around an amoral policy based solely on Chinese strategic interests and visions in the region. With Iranian influence ascendant throughout the region, these views are likely to be aired more often should Beijing remain reluctant to crack down on the rogue republic and its nuclear ambitions. Is this hydrocarbon hungry behemoth of the Far East sacrificing Middle Eastern stability and the non-proliferation regime in its Machiavellian quest for more resources, or is the Chinese position

on and perceptions of the Iranian nuclear issue more multifaceted than their critics make them out to be?

Beijing in the Middle East: The New Great Power on the block There are some truths in the Western criticism on Beijing’s stance regarding the Iranian nuclear issue. Regionally, Beijing and the Western actors- Washington, and Brussels to a lesser extent- have very different approaches to Middle Eastern issues. Whereas the regionally dominant Western agenda has emphasized norms – democratization, rule of law, and maintenance of status quo – and heavily featured Washington’s special partnership with Israel and

Saudi-Arabia, the Chinese approach to the Middle East is less restricted and driven mainly by strategic considerations. In the case of Iran, the Western normative policies and its historical baggage with Tehran are hardly central concerns for Beijing. Indeed, Chinese policymakers have shown little regard to the nature of the Iranian regime, its human rights record or its now fizzling domestic power struggle between the supporters of the regime and its opponents. Beijing has strong vested interests in a good relationship with Iran. Firstly, Beijing wants to strengthen its political and economic ties with all the key powers in the Middle East, including the Islamic Republic. Behind such policies are found the geopolitical imperatives of maintaining Chinese influence in a strategically important region, and

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also an economic impetus including the abundant hydrocarbon reserves in the region which are crucial for Chinese industry and economic growth. As Erica Downs, a specialist on Chinese energy politics at the Brookings Institution, states in “Beijing’s Tehran Temptation” article in Foreign Policy (July 30, 2009), Iran’s hydrocarbon reserves are particularly vital to Beijing due to its “late arrival to international exploration and production has made it difficult for them to acquire attractive investment opportunities abroad.” Additionally, Tehran is viewed by Beijing as a rising power with considerable potential influence over the future regional dynamics of the Middle East. But unlike in the West, Iran’s hegemonic ambitions are not viewed with suspicion among Chinese policy-makers. Instead Iran is perceived as a

the Beholder: Tehran’s Nuclear Ambitions potential counterweight to excessive U.S. influence and unilateralism in the Middle East, and a possible source of leverage in support of Chinese interests in relation to other regional powers.

PHOTO: TopNews

Nuclear Ambitions? Lacking the mutual suspicion and confrontation with Tehran that Western states have experienced since the launch of the Islamic Republic, Beijing has developed a perception of Iranian nuclear ambitions that stands in stark contrast with Washington’s view. Indeed, Beijing remains unconvinced that Iran has the ability to construct nuclear weapons in the near future, and hardly shares the sense of urgency about the possibility of a nuclear-armed Iran emanating from Washington, Brussels and Tel Aviv. This has allowed Beijing, on the one hand, to oppose nuclear proliferation, which it views as a regional threat, and on the other hand, opposing sanctions against Tehran. In fact, Beijing does not believe the sanctions proposed by Western states will bring about a solution to the issue especially given the impact of sanctions so far. On the contrary, Beijing has consistently insisted that a solution to the nuclear impasse must be sought first and foremost through diplomacy. Central to this approach has been the emphasis that as long as Tehran abides by its commitments outlined in the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) not to use nuclear technology for military purposes, it should not be obliged to forgo its rights underlined by the same accord, including enrichment.

Above: President of China - Hu Jintao

Great Power Politics: The Primacy of Strategy However, there are clear limits to China’s support for Iran. If Beijing was to find itself facing unanimous support for sanctions from other Security Council members, it would likely seek to delay – although not to block – the diplomatic action while seeking to weaken its punitive terms. In fact, the pursuit of the diplomatic delays and weakening punitive action has been the cornerstone of Chinese policy in the negotiations. It is also widely perceived to capitalise on Beijing’s political clout with regard to both Iran and the West, and make sure whatever diplomatic action is taken against Iran, its implications reflect as negatively as

possible on Chinese interests in both Tehran and the wider Middle East.

at the same time slightly altering its position on the negotiations.

Fitting to the Chinese grand strategy, it has been Beijing’s relationship with Washington that has made its leadership reconsider its position on the Iranian nuclear impasse. Since February 2010, Beijing and Washington have clashed over issues from internet censorship to accusations of China keeping its currency undervalued, and most recently regarding the Nobel Peace Prize winner Liu Xiaobo and North Korea’s artillery barrage on a South Korean island in late November, raising the possibility those tensions could spill over into dealings over Iran. Subsequently, the Chinese leadership has, among other actions, sought to limit its oil importation from Iran- intending to signal that Beijing is more important to Tehran than Tehran to Beijing and

However, it is unlikely that China will side with Iran at the expense of its relations with America or other key players in the international community. Despite recent transPacific turbulence, Beijing still values its relationship to Washington over those with Tehran. However, if Washington – or Brussels – wishes to strengthen the front against Tehran on the nuclear issue, it needs to take Chinese strategic considerations better into account. While Beijing’s approach to the Iranian nuclear question is hardly the monodimensional, amoral caricature its critics make it out to be, they are correct in one sense. In the land of the dragon, strategic interests reign supreme.

Juha Saarinen juha.q.saarinen@gmail.com The London Globalist

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