Q4 2021
Q4 Market Report
contents December 2021
OVERALL MARKET REPORT The Region’s OutLying Counties Emerge as Luxury Enclaves
COMMUNITY UPDATES SouthPark Myers Park & Eastover Lake Wylie & The Palisades Providence, Weddington & Waxhaw Ballantyne & South Carolina Center City Luxury Condos
FORECAST The Lake Norman and North Charlotte markets continued to show explosive growth.
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3rd Quarter Luxury Market Report
The Region’s OutLying Counties Emerge as Luxury Enclaves One of the biggest stories related to the Covid impact of the past two years has been the emergence of million-dollar and luxury estate property activity outside the traditional hub of Mecklenburg County. Places like Eastover, Myers Park, SouthPark, and Cornelius remain high demand areas for luxury home buyers. Work from home conditions, the attraction of more acreage, new construction properties, and an emphasis on outdoor lifestyles have all propelled the region’s outlying counties to unprecedented luxury activity.
The six-county area surrounding Mecklenburg accounted for more than 754 transactions above $1 million in value in 2021, compared to 1,008 in a traditionally strong Mecklenburg. Further, while Mecklenburg showed a robust increase from 795 closings in 2020 to 1,008 in 2021, momentum in the outlying areas bested this increase, as closed transactions in 2020 totaled 457, increasing to 754 in 2021, or a whopping 65%, now accounting for 43% of all transactions in the region over $1 million. In the ultra-luxury range above $2 million in value, a segment that sizzled in North Carolina in 2021, both in Mecklenburg and the surrounding counties showed increases in sell-through of over 70%, with the surrounding areas posting an increase from 43 to 77 closed properties, a record increase of over 78%. Individually, Union County led the way with a near 100% increase to 286 transactions over $1 million, while Iredell, home to The Point, recorded 248 closings in that segment. Emerging areas in the $1 Million+ segment include Cabarrus, Catawba, York, and Lincoln counties, all recorded increases in the 40% to over 100% range.
LAST 60 DAYS
SURROUNDING AREAS
LAST 60 DAYS
SURROUNDING AREAS
SOUTHPARK One of the city’s always popular areas, SouthPark saw mixed sellthrough of limited inventory. The range below $1 million in list price saw closings drop from 87 to 78 in comparison to last year’s final quarter, but left the area with just 10 available homes active in the range. The million dollar range saw similar activity, a slight decline from 39 to 34, but with just 11 homes in this range, another highly contested price point and area. The ultra-luxury range finished strongly in the SouthPark Area with 13 homes closing over $2 million, while some new speculative building inventory pushed available listings up to 13 in inventory.
LAST 60 DAYS
SOUTHPARK Q4 HOMES SOLD & SHOWINGS
Listings SouthPark
7114 OLD DAIRY LANE - MORROCROFT ESTATES - $3,099,000 8925 HEYDON HALL CIRCLE - HEYDON HALL - $1,050,000 - UNDER CONTRACT 2525 MORROCROFT LN - VILLAGE OF MORROCROFT - $2,650,000 - UNDER CONTRACT 4620 PIEDMONT ROW DRIVE #604 - PIEDMONT ROW - $304,000 - UNDER CONTRACT
Sold SouthPark
9024 TYNECASTLE COMMONS COURT #13 - TYNECASTLE SOUTHPARK - $1,059,000 9020 TYNECASTALE COMMONES COURT #12 - TYNECASTLE SOUTHPARK - $1,099,900 1222 CEDAR LANE - $685,000
MYERS PARK & EASTOVER Traditionally high demand areas like Myers Park and Eastover have seen limited inventory inspired by off market deals and bidding wars on occasion which has pushed some buyers to delay or look further out. Actual closings were down in all three luxury price segments, as limited inventory saw sell-through drop from 62 homes in Q4 of 2020, to 38 homes in the fourth quarter of 2021. As of this publishing, there were no houses on the market between $500,000 and $1 million, just 2 in the $1 million to $2 million range, and 3 in the ultra luxury range over $2 million in list price.
LAST 60 DAYS
MYERS PARK Q4 HOMES SOLD & SHOWINGS
Listings Myers Park & Eastover
2251 VERNON DRIVE - EASTOVER - $5,950,000 - UNDER CONTRACT 2536 VAIL AVENUE #15A - ELIZABETH - $1,475,000 2532 VAIL AVENUE #15B - ELIZABETH - $1,475,000 2326 FERNCLIFF ROAD - OLD FOXCROFT - $1,495,000 - UNDER CONTRACT 1122 KINGS DRIVE - MYERS PARK - $1,299,000 - UNDER CONTRACT
Sold Myers Park & Eastover
2332 PROVIDENCE ROAD - PHARR ACRES - $1,300,000 1129 TARRINGTON AVENUE - EASTWAY PARK - $326,000 3200 SELWYN AVENUE - MYERS PARK - $775,000 5029 SILABERT AVENUE - ANTHEM - $352,000 4121 WALKER ROAD #UNIT 8 - WALKER WOODS - $155,000
LAKE WYLIE & PALISADES Further west and south of Charlotte, the mid-market range spiked similarly to other outlying suburban Charlotte communities. 225 homes between $500,000 and $1 million sold in the 4th quarter, vs 140 in 2020’s final quarter. An increase of over 70% left just 30 homes in active inventory. This segment had one of the region’s largest increases in showing requests with a 100% increase over the 4th quarter of 2020. In the luxury segment above $1 million in price, a rare drop in sellthrough occurred, with 14 homes closing in Q4 vs 20 in the final quarter of 2020. The new year starts with just 10 homes over $1 million in price in active inventory, roughly 60 days of absorption.
LAST 60 DAYS
LAKE WYLIE & PALISADES Q4 HOMES SOLD & SHOWINGS
PROVIDENCE, WEDDINGTON & WAXHAW Torrid sell throughout the Providence Road corridor into Waxhaw finally began to impact inventory. This area saw a slight decline in sell through just below $1 million in list price, from 201 homes closed in Q4 of 2020, to 195 in the just completed quarter, but with just 11 homes remaining active in this popular area, comparative sell-through numbers may likely fall. The same is true of the ultra luxury range, although sell through slightly ticked upward from 57 to 60 units over $1 million in list price. The segment headed into 2022 with just 11 available homes for sale after 60 closings in Q4.
LAST 60 DAYS
PROVIDENCE,WEDDINGTON & WAXHAW Q4 HOMES SOLD & SHOWINGS
Listings Providence, Weddington, & Waxhaw
811 CHAMBWOOD ROAD - WESLEY CHAPEL - $627,000 - UNDER CONTRACT
Sold Providence, Weddington, and Waxhaw
3409 SANDALWOOD LANE - PROVIDENCE ESTATES - $1,975,000 6615 WAKEHURST ROAD - BURNING TREE - $780,000 3215 PLANTATION ROAD - PROVIDENCE PLANTATION - $1,685,575 10811 OLD TAYPORT PLACE - PROVIDENCE COUNTRY CLUB - $890,510 6711 LARRISA COURT - GREEN PARK - $750,000 942 BARON ROAD - AERO PLANTATION - $1,020,000 752 RIDING CROP COURT - HUNTERS POINTE - $515,000
BALLANTYNE & SOUTH CAROLINA As tight inventory conditions and remote working fueled suburban growth, the Ballantyne to Fort Mill area was typical of the newly formed buying patterns. This area saw a whopping 150% increase in buyer showings from Q4 of 2020 to Q4 of 2021 162 homes sold in the mid-market range just below $1 million, leaving just 15 in active inventory as winter comes to a close. The $1 million plus range in price saw a 40% increase over 2020’s final quarter, with 24 homes closing over $1 million in list price, versus 17 the prior year during the same quarter. That action left the area with just 5 active listings over $1 million in price.
LAST 60 DAYS
BALLANTYNE & SOUTH CAROLINA Q4 HOMES SOLD & SHOWINGS
Sold Ballantyne & South Carolina
7814 PEMSWOOD STREET - HIGHGROVE - $1,065,000 15238 PRESCOTT HILL AVENUE - PROVIDENCE POINTE - $670,000 3339 SILVER POND COURT - CAMERON WOOD - $435,000 8206 CHURCHTON PLACE - SOUTHGATE COMMONS - $319,900 339 LANCASTER ESTATE ROAD - INDIAN LAND, SC - $800,000
CENTER CITY LUXURY CONDOS As Covid concerns diminished somewhat, the condo and townhouse market in Center City and the surrounding 277 beltway corridor continued its upward swing. In the range between $500,000 and $1 million in price, 103 units closed vs 79 in Q4 2020. Several new projects came on line including IJ’s West Trade Townhomes in the hot corridor along the new Lynx Line. This price segment has seen some new inventory and sported 34 active units heading into the first quarter. The luxury condo and townhome market also saw increased interest, with 9 units closing vs just 3 in the closing quarter the year before. With 12 active units in the luxury space over $ 1 million there remained about 90 days inventory in this segment.
LAST 60 DAYS
CENTER CITY CONDO MARKET Q4 HOMES SOLD
CHARLOTTE MARKET FORECAST With the decrease in inventory, total showing requests through the MLS system can be inventory driven (i.e. more houses to look at tends to equal more total showing requests). That said, we also look at average showings per active listing. In theory, if there are only 5 houses in an area where a year ago there were 20, total requests might be down, but the average per house should at least remain constant or in fact increase. In many areas of Charlotte, showing requests on a per house basis have gone up. Particularly in high demand areas and suburban pricing segments like the mid-market luxury segment just below $1 million in list price in both Union County, and the south Charlotte and York County areas. Several of these areas saw buyer showing requests up more than 50% in the 4th quarter. These are all trend lines indicative of continued strong demand and new demand in emerging areas. All that said, the real estate market has been on an extended run since recovering from the great recession of a decade ago.
Inventory continues to significantly trail demand nationally, and North Carolina has certainly thrived as a “go to” destination for young professionals, corporate relocation, and lifestyle interests. All of which should continue in the short run. Historically, real estate has been impacted negatively by rising interest rates, geopolitical instability, and volatility in the financial markets, all of which we may experience to some degree over the next several months. Rates have already jumped from below 3% to near 3.6% in the new year, yet inventory has continued to decline over the winter months. Over the past decade, with government and Federal Reserve intervention, trillions of stimulus dollars have flowed into the financial system. The luxury real estate consumer has grown more resilient to short term volatility, while the historically acute inventory situation has provided for continued demand in periods where a more cautious segment of the luxury consumer buyer may have stepped to the sideline. Strong relocation demand from other areas of the country where asset values are higher has also filled in demand gaps where perhaps local resistance to upward pricing pressures has kicked in (at least up until this point). Put simply, buyers with a relative perspective of higher asset values tend to scrutinize current pricing less than someone who’s locally observed upward pressure. They also tend to compare the attributes of the area from which they are moving to those of our region, and invest in the longer term prospects.
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