IVESTER JACKSON | CHRISTIE'S LUXURY MARKET REPORT & FORECAST
Charlotte | Q4 2023
2023 Q4 Market Report
contents OVERALL MARKET REPORT Charlotte Region Records Historic Activity in Ultra-Luxury Real Estate Segment
COMMUNITY UPDATES SouthPark Myers Park & Eastover Lake Wylie & The Palisades Providence, Weddington & Waxhaw Ballantyne & South Carolina Center City Luxury Condos & Townhomes
FORECAST Fourth quarter and early January showing request activity in the MLS is outpacing the same period last year by double digit percentages in the Charlotte region.
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Charlotte Region Records Historic Activity in Ultra-Luxury Real Estate Segment Riding an improved luxury consumer outlook driven by financial markets anticipating lessened Federal Reserve activity, declining inflation, and potential reductions in rates, North Carolina’s luxury real estate market trended back upward as 2023 came to an end. Record sell-through in the upper ranges in the five county area in and around Charlotte drove unit sales in both the $2 million and $3 million and up ranges to record heights. Over a five year period sales in the $2 million range and above have skyrocketed from 101 closings in 2019, to 372 in the year just closed out. That’s a whopping near four-fold increase in just five years. The top end of the market over $3 million saw a similar and spectacular near five-fold increase. While the fourth quarter results were generally lower in terms of sell-through, improved sentiment prodded more buyers to move forward in December and many areas entered January with pending contracts exceeding remaining available active inventory, something that may point to a return to bidding wars later in the spring in some areas.
SOUTHPARK The high demand areas below SouthPark and out to Highway 51 showed mixed results as sell-through declined across the board yet pending contracts in the lower luxury ranges jumped at year end. The ultra-luxury segment above $2 million appeared to take a breather after solid results earlier in the 2024 selling season, yet all three price ranges continue to show fairly stable inventory to pending contract ratios in the 45-120 day absorption rate range.
LAST 90 DAYS
SOUTHPARK AREA Q4 HOMES SOLD & SHOWINGS
MYERS PARK & EASTOVER This high demand area continued to show stable but fairly rapid absorption rates, as the $1 million range showed similar sell-through to levels reached in 2022’s fourth quarter. Inventory in the ultra-luxury range edged up to 10 homes active over $2 million, yet in comparison with quarterly absorption, this level should continue to yield pretty low inventory levels as the spring luxury market kicks in for this high demand area. Prices continue to rise due to scarcity of inventory.
LAST 90 DAYS
MYERS PARK Q4 HOMES SOLD & SHOWINGS
LAKE WYLIE & PALISADES Similarly to its York County neighbors, the communities near the Lake Wylie shoreline saw slight declines in sellthrough year-over-year in the mid-market luxury range. The range above $1 million in list price continued to show stable conditions, matching sell-through from the prior year’s fourth quarter. This area is now consistently seeing over 20 homes close per quarter in excess of $1 million in list price, a huge jump from pre-Covid days despite recent declines.
LAST 90 DAYS
LAKE WYLIE & PALISADES Q4 HOMES SOLD & SHOWINGS
PROVIDENCE, WEDDINGTON & WAXHAW The story down the Providence Road corridor into Union County continues to be lower inventory. While year-over-year fourth quarter sales closings declined slightly in the luxury segments, pending contract activity as the year closed out far exceeded inventory levels. This may point to potential shortages moving into the spring, particularly in the range below $1 million in list price. This area’s popularity has risen dramatically in the past three years, now generating sell-through which parallels Charlotte’s traditional high demand areas.
LAST 90 DAYS
PROVIDENCE,WEDDINGTON & WAXHAW Q4 HOMES SOLD & SHOWINGS
BALLANTYNE & SOUTH CAROLINA While sold results declined precipitously in this area in the fourth quarter vs the prior year’s finish, this area’s sell-through remains at levels elevated to pre-Covid levels. Pending contracts moving into January outpaced available inventory by a significant margin, pointing to more acute inventory issues in the lower price points as the spring season kicks into gear. The luxury market moved forward with more balanced conditions as pending and active inventory nearly balanced, showing roughly 45 days of inventory.
LAST 90 DAYS
BALLANTYNE & SOUTH CAROLINA Q4 HOMES SOLD & SHOWINGS
CENTER CITY LUXURY CONDOS & TOWNHOMES The emerging story in the luxury multi-family market is the advancement of units now moving in excess of $1 million in list price. When we first started tracking this segment two years ago, the range above $1 million generated fairly sparse quarterly activity. Fast forward to the first quarter of 2024, and we forecast 40+ closings above $1 million in the quarter, when just last year a quarter might see single-digit $1 million sell-through.
LAST 90 DAYS
CENTER CITY CONDOS & TOWNHOMES Q4 HOMES SOLD
Showing Request Activity Outpacing The Same Period Last Year By Double Digit Percentages Fourth quarter and early January showing request activity in the MLS is outpacing the same period last year by double digit percentages in the Charlotte region. The area’s profile has permanently jumped from that of up-and-coming mid-market metro market, to bell weather status, with this year’s $2 million plus market expected to see 400-450 units close in the five county area, while price ceilings extend up into the $8-12 million range in the residential resale market. Across the state, properties are starting to attract contracts in the 10-$20 million range, and it is only a matter of time before this threshold gets crossed more consistently, as Lake Norman has now seen several new construction projects exceed $15 million in value with Charlotte following closely on larger parcels.
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