Q4 Market Report | December 2022
EMERGING MARKET REPORT
Emerging Luxury Encaves
COMMUNITY UPDATES
- Atlantic Beach & Emerald Isle
- Bald Head & Southport
- Carolina & Kure Beach
- Figure Eight Island, Porter's Neck, &
- Hampstead
- Holden Beach & Oak Island
- Onslow County
- Topsail Island & Surf City
- Wrightsville Beach & Landfall
- Wilmington
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Historic Sell Through Continues at the Coast
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Historic Sell Through Continues at the Coast
Despite a flattening of the upward trend, the past three years have seen a historic spike in luxury transactions, both in the $1 million - $1 99 million and $2 million+ ranges. The fourth quarter 2022 sell through totals paralleled that of 2021’s fourth quarter, and are the best on record, having tripled that of 2019.
The fourth quarter saw 169 closings between $1 million and $1.99 million, 36 closings at or above $2 million, with 79 pending transactions between $1 million and $1.99 million and 19 pending transactions above $2 million. The pending transactions for the start of the first quarter in 2023 look to be on par with or even ahead of the recent fourth quarter numbers.
With this data and the seemingly stabilizing interest rates, it appears that continued demand, along with still limited inventory in high demand areas, is likely going to influence a period of price stability.
While inventory has increased slightly from recent historic lows, it remains low by pre-Covid standards.
The rise in home prices has expanded the luxury market and the demand for luxury homes has grown steadily
The limited inventory in high demand areas will also contribute to a period of price stability.
These results are similar to what is happening elsewhere in North Carolina
Financial markets continue to see levels that are three times greater than ten years ago, and luxury real estate continues to not only remain a stable investment, but one in which owners have multiple options in the case of secondary and investment properties
SURROUNDING AREAS & EMERGING MARKETS
The long history of high demand of the Wilmington and Wrightsville Beach area has led many people to turn to other markets for luxury inventory The steady increase of development and money moving to these areas has flagged them as emerging markets that will continue to grow in the next few years To read our full report on coastal North Carolina's emerging markets, please visit the link below
https://issuu.com/ivesterjackson/docs/emerging markets email
ATLANTIC BEACH & EMERALD ISLE
One of the most popular destinations for vacationers, Atlantic Beach, and Emerald Isle rest on North Carolina's northern barrier islands below the Outer Banks Emerald Isle is famous for its pristine, emeraldcolored beaches and Atlantic Beach, north of Emerald Isle, is near popular Morehead City and across from the famous historic port town of Beaufort, NC.
The number of pending and closed transactions from $500k to $1.99 million showed a decline in the fourth quarter 2022 when compared to that of 2021 On the contrary, the number of closed transactions at $2 million plus tripled This trend further exemplifies the current state of the ultra-luxury market
ATLANTIC BEACH & EMERALD ISLE
Q4 Homes Sold
LAST 90 DAYS
BALD HEAD & SOUTHPORT
The southeastern tip of North Carolina has historically been a popular vacation spot for decades The mix of historical significance and coastal beauty has made this area highly desirable
Closed properties between $500,000 and $1 99 million remained relatively similar between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the fourth quarter of 2021 The data shows a minimal decline for the fourth quarter of 2022 when compared to the previous year The ultra-luxury segment showed a decline of 3 properties closed at or above $2 million, compared to 2021 ’ s 5
BALD HEAD ISLAND & SOUTHPORT
Q4 Homes Sold
LAST 90 DAYS
CAROLINA & KURE BEACH
With its proximity to Wilmington, the ferry to Southport and Wrightsville Beach’s escalating property values, the Pleasure Island area of Carolina and Kure Beach have become a highly sought coastal destination Long known for its relaxed vibe and small-town beach atmosphere, this area ’ s real estate market has seen major jumps in property values as well as unit sell through.
The $500,000-$1 million trend showed a nearly 32% decrease in the fourth quarter of 2022 when compared to that of 2021: there were 79 closed transactions in the fourth quarter of 2021 in this range and 54 in the fourth quarter of 2022 The $1 million-$2 million category showed a 50% increase in closed transactions and the ultra-luxury segment experienced a 25% decrease, from 4 closed transactions above $2 million in the fourth quarter of 2021 to 3 in fourth quarter of 2022.
CAROLINA BEACH & KURE BEACH
Q4 Homes Sold
LAST 90 DAYS
FIGURE 8, PORTER'S NECK, & HAMPSTEAD
Figure Eight Island, Porter's Neck, and Hampstead are north of Wilmington Porter's Neck and Hampstead are two emerging markets that are developing a robust luxury market, while Figure Eight remains one of the region’s flagship upscale communities with some of the most significant coastal estate homes in the Carolinas.
This pocket of the market saw an increase of nearly 50% from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the fourth quarter of 2022 in the $500,000-$1 million market The $1 million-$2 million saw a 25% increase and the ultra-luxury segment saw 0 closings above $2 million mark in the recently completed fourth quarter
FIGURE 8 ISLAND, PORTER'S NECK & HAMPSTEAD
Q4 Homes Sold
LAST 90 DAYS
HOLDEN BEACH & OAK ISLAND
Holden Beach & Oak Island comprise the South Brunswick Islands southwest of Wilmington Both markets have grown tremendously throughout the last two and a half years, with unprecedented activity moving into late 2020 and throughout 2021.
The southern coastal islands of North Carolina experienced a decline in both the $500,000-$1 million market segment, dropping from 119 in the fourth quarter of 2021 to 80 in 2022 and 26 to 18, respectively. The $2 million plus range saw a 500% increase, going from 1 sale to 5.
HOLDEN BEACH & OAK ISLAND
Q4 Homes Sold
LAST 90 DAYS
ONSLOW COUNTY
Located north of Wilmington, Onslow County was first created as Onslow Precinct in 1734 and then became a county in 1739. Jacksonville sits at the country seat and features a large military population due to Camp Lejeune, a large military base
Onslow County experienced a very similar fourth quarter from 2021 to 2022, with only a slight decrease in the $500,000-$1 million and the $1 million-$1 99 million segments, with sales dropping by 2 transactions in each price point The $2 million plus segment remained exactly the same in sales.
ONSLOW COUNTY
Q4 Homes Sold
LAST 90 DAYS
TOPSAIL ISLAND & SURF CITY
Topsail Island is a barrier island 45 minutes to an hour north of Wilmington that includes the beach town of Surf City, as well as North Topsail Beach. Topsail Island has long been a vacation spot favorite and Surf City is one of the most popular cities on Topsail Island.
Interestingly, all price points in these areas experienced a decline in closed transactions when comparing the fourth quarter of 2021 to that of 2022 The $500,000 to $1 million saw a 36% decrease, the $1 million-$2 million saw a 25% decrease, and the $2 million plus segment saw a 66% decrease
TOPSAIL & SURF CITY
Q4 Homes Sold
LAST 90 DAYS
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH & LANDFALL
Wrightsville Beach is the furthest eastern part of Wilmington and one of the most popular beaches on the East Coast. Just a few minutes inland sits the prestigious Landfall community. This is a flagship gated golf course community in Wilmington, situated between Wrightsville Beach and the intracoastal waterway.
There was a 32% decrease in closings between $500,000 and $1 million in the fourth quarter of 2021 and the fourth quarter of 2022 The $1 million-$2 million market remained very close between the two quarters and the $2 million plus segment saw a 30% decrease in the fourth quarter of 2022
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH & LANDFALL
Q4 Homes Sold
LAST 90 DAYS
WILMINGTON
Wilmington is a historic port city along the Cape Fear River that features three gorgeous island beaches, Carolina, Kure, & Wrightsville Beach The historic artistic culture is complemented by the small beach town aesthetic offered by top-rated pristine beaches at Wrightsville Beach, historic Carolina Beach, and Kure Beach The art, music, food, architecture, history, and natural beauty of Wilmington make it the #1 emerging market in the US (Mansion Global, 2022)
Both the $500,000-$1 million and $1 million-$2 million segments saw tremendous growth in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to fourth quarter of 2021 (32% and 68% respectively). Interestingly, the ultra-luxury market saw a decline of 37% when comparing the fourth quarter of 2021 to that of 2022
Q4 Homes Sold
LAST 90 DAYS WILMINGTON
COASTAL MARKET FORECAST
Ultra Luxe Market Analysis
2022 was an historically great year at the coast in terms of luxury real estate activity. In reviewing the past four years of activity, 2022 exceeded the previous three years in sell through activity. While there was some tapering in the fourth quarter, closed units still recorded at a pace equal to the prior years historic level and far exceeded 2019 and 2020 Based on the current pending contracts heading into the first quarter, it appears that while some tapering has occurred, unit closings will still rival totals of the last two years starting quarters With a settling of interest rates into what hopefully will be a range in the fives, unit sell through should continue at an attractive pace for the first half of 2023.
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Check out our 2022 Market Reports as we wrap up the year statistics!
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