Q1 Market Report | March 2023
EMERGING MARKET REPORT
Emerging Luxury Encaves
COMMUNITY UPDATES
- Atlantic Beach & Emerald Isle
- Bald Head & Southport
- Carolina & Kure Beach
- Figure Eight Island, Porter's Neck, &
- Hampstead
- Holden Beach & Oak Island
- Onslow County
- Topsail Island & Surf City
- Wrightsville Beach & Landfall
- Wilmington
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contents
Current Trends
Inventory and interest rates remain primary market disruptors. Active and pending listings represent a mixed illustration this quarter when compared to the fourth quarter 2022. The $500k-$1m price points have seen a slight uptick in inventory, while the $1-$2m and $2m+ categories have seen slight increases in certain markets and equally slight decreases in others. Interest rates have had their fair share of volatility over the last few months with rates ranging from the upper 5%’s to the 7% range. At the end of the first quarter, the inflation numbers suggest a more stable environment may be on the horizon in the upcoming months.
ATLANTIC BEACH & EMERALD ISLE
One of the most popular destinations for vacationers, Atlantic Beach, and Emerald Isle rest on North Carolina's northern barrier islands below the Outer Banks Emerald Isle is famous for its pristine, emeraldcolored beaches and Atlantic Beach, north of Emerald Isle, is near popular Morehead City and across from the famous historic port town of Beaufort, NC.
The number of active listings in first quarter of 2023 dropped from the fourth quarter of 2022 as the inventory decreased due to interest rates coming back down However, the solds in the midmarket range did see a slight increase The luxury and ultra-luxury market experienced a 150% and 600% decrease, respectively, from the first quarter of 2022
ATLANTIC BEACH & EMERALD ISLE
Q1 Homes Sold
LAST 90 DAYS
BALD HEAD & SOUTHPORT
The southeastern tip of North Carolina has historically been a popular vacation spot for decades The mix of historical significance and coastal beauty has made this area highly desirable
Closed properties between $500,000 and $1 million increased by 13% as interest rates came back down The luxury price range stayed exactly the same and there a 40% decrease in the ultra luxe market range
BALD HEAD ISLAND & SOUTHPORT
Q1 Homes Sold
LAST 90 DAYS
CAROLINA & KURE BEACH
With its proximity to Wilmington, the ferry to Southport and Wrightsville Beach’s escalating property values, the Pleasure Island area of Carolina and Kure Beach have become a highly sought coastal destination. Long known for its relaxed vibe and small-town beach atmosphere, this area ’ s real estate market has seen major jumps in property values as well as unit sell through
The $500,000-$1 million trend showed a nearly 38% decrease in the fourth quarter of 2022 when compared to that of 2021: there were 79 closed transactions in the first quarter of 2022 in this range and 57 in the first quarter of 2023 This is almost exact with the numbers from the fourth quarter of 2022, so interest rate decreases didn’t seem to affect this market as much. The $1 million-$2 million category showed a 47% decrease in closed transactions and the ultra-luxury segment experienced a 50% decrease, from 2 closed transactions above $2 million in the first quarter of 2022 to 1 in first quarter of 2023. The range between 1 million and 2 million has seen a run up of inventory relative to pending contracts, and thus might see more aggressive pricing trends from some sellers moving into the second quarter
CAROLINA BEACH & KURE BEACH
Q1 Homes Sold
LAST 90 DAYS
FIGURE 8, PORTER'S NECK, & HAMPSTEAD
Figure Eight Island, Porter's Neck, and Hampstead are north of Wilmington Porter's Neck and Hampstead are two emerging markets that are developing a robust luxury market, while Figure Eight remains one of the region’s flagship upscale communities with some of the most significant coastal estate homes in the Carolinas.
Inventory continues to trend in the first quarter as the active listings went from 58 in the fourth quarter of 2022 to 49 in the first quarter of 2023 This pocket of the market saw absolutely no difference in the $500,000-$1 million market from 2022 to 2023 The $1 million-$2 million saw a 300% increase and the ultra-luxury segment saw no difference between the first quarter of 2022 and 2023, staying at 1 sale
FIGURE 8 ISLAND, PORTER'S NECK & HAMPSTEAD
Q1 Homes Sold
LAST 90 DAYS
HOLDEN BEACH & OAK ISLAND
Holden Beach & Oak Island comprise the South Brunswick Islands southwest of Wilmington. Both markets have grown tremendously throughout the last two and a half years, with unprecedented activity moving into late 2020 and throughout 2021
The southern coastal islands of North Carolina experienced a decline in both the $500,000-$1 million and the $1 million-$2 million market segments, dropping from 99 in the first quarter of 2022 to 84 in 2023 and 24 to 17, respectively These numbers align well with the fourth quarter of 2022 stats. The $2 million plus range saw a 200% increase, going from 1 sale to 2.
HOLDEN BEACH & OAK ISLAND
Q1 Homes Sold
LAST 90 DAYS
ONSLOW COUNTY
Located north of Wilmington, Onslow County was first created as Onslow Precinct in 1734 and then became a county in 1739. Jacksonville sits at the country seat and features a large military population due to Camp Lejeune, a large military base
Onslow County experienced a very similar first quarter from 2022 to 2023, with only a one sale decrease in the $500,000-$1 million segment and a 2 sale increase in the $1 million-$1 99 million segment The $2 million plus segment dropped $400 in sales, going from 4 sales in 2022 to 0 sales in 2023.
ONSLOW COUNTY
Q1 Homes Sold
LAST 90 DAYS
TOPSAIL ISLAND & SURF CITY
Topsail Island is a barrier island 45 minutes to an hour north of Wilmington that includes the beach town of Surf City, as well as North Topsail Beach. Topsail Island has long been a vacation spot favorite and Surf City is one of the most popular cities on Topsail Island.
Interestingly, all price points in these areas experienced a decline in closed transactions when comparing the fourth quarter of 2021 to that of 2022 The $500,000 to $1 million saw a 23% decrease, the $1 million-$2 million saw a 25% decrease, and the $2 million plus segment saw an 80% decrease
TOPSAIL & SURF CITY
Q1 Homes Sold
LAST 90 DAYS
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH & LANDFALL
Wrightsville Beach is the furthest eastern part of Wilmington and one of the most popular beaches on the East Coast. Just a few minutes inland sits the prestigious Landfall community. This is a flagship gated golf course community in Wilmington, situated between Wrightsville Beach and the intracoastal waterway.
In the $500,000 and $1 million market segment, there was no difference in the first quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023 The $1 million-$2 million market saw a slight increase in 2023, going from 21 to 24 and the $2 million plus segment saw a 11% increase in 2023
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH & LANDFALL
Q1 Homes Sold
LAST 90 DAYS
WILMINGTON
Wilmington is a historic port city along the Cape Fear River that features three gorgeous island beaches, Carolina, Kure, & Wrightsville Beach The historic artistic culture is complemented by the small beach town aesthetic offered by top-rated pristine beaches at Wrightsville Beach, historic Carolina Beach, and Kure Beach The art, music, food, architecture, history, and natural beauty of Wilmington make it the #1 emerging market in the US
(Mansion
Global, 2022)
The $500,000 and $1 million market segment saw a 22% increase in the first quarter of 2023 from the first quarter of 2022. The $1 million-$2 million market dropped 27%, going from 33 to 24 and the $2 million plus segment saw a 33% decrease in 2023. As inventory pressures in Wilmington and Wrightsville have eased slightly, increased available inventory locally may result in fewer buyers extending their searches out further from a geographic standpoint to the more distant barrier islands
Q1 Homes Sold
LAST 90 DAYS WILMINGTON
COASTAL MARKET FORECAST
Ultra Luxe Market Analysis
Despite a flattening of the upward trend, the past three years have seen a historic spike in luxury transactions, both in the $1 million - $1.99 million and $2 million+ ranges.
As we embark upon the beginning of the coast’s busier selling season, we are certainly light on inventory and expect sell through numbers to remain very high Interest rates will play an important role in the next 3-6 months, particularly in the $1m and under price category.
Rising home prices have expanded the luxury market and the demand for luxury homes has steadily increased. High end real estate has become more a prominent portfolio diversification tool and the current interest rate volatility does not seem to be effecting trends in the upper end of the market. The limited inventory in high demand areas will also contribute to a period of price stability.
These results are similar to what is happening elsewhere in North Carolina Financial markets continue to see levels that are three times greater than ten years ago, and luxury real estate continues to not only remain a stable investment, but one in which owners have multiple options in the case of secondary and investment properties
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