LUXURY MARKET REPORT
Coastal | Q4 2023
contents Q4 Market Report | December 2023
COMMUNITY UPDATES - Atlantic Beach & Emerald Isle - Bald Head & Southport - Carolina & Kure Beach - Figure Eight Island, Porter's Neck, & - Hampstead - Holden Beach & Oak Island - Onslow County - Topsail Island & Surf City - Wrightsville Beach & Landfall - Wilmington
FORECAST The Market Remains Relatively Stable as Interest Rates Come Down in 2024
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3rd Quarter Luxury Market Report
Coastal North Carolina Real Estate Market Looking to Settle in 2024 As we head into the new year, the regional luxury real estate market is trending slightly upward in terms of demand. Steady activity in the second half of 2023 had caused some areas and pricing segments to increase in Q4 of 2023 as compared to the prior year's results of Q4 of 2022. Evaluating conditions requires a hyper-local focus on specific dynamics of smaller sections of the Cape Fear Region. There are still areas with very tight inventory with lower days on market as compared to the region's average. While showing requests in the MLS trended upward as 2023 ended, the prospect of lower interest rates, higher consumer confidence and a rallying stock market points to increased spring activity. An increase in inventory specifically trending in the second half of 2023 has added a much needed advantage for buyers. An uptick in buyer demand is expected to continue throughout the first quarter of 2024.
ATLANTIC BEACH & EMERALD ISLE One of the most popular destinations for vacationers, Atlantic Beach, and Emerald Isle rest on North Carolina's northern barrier islands below the Outer Banks. Emerald Isle is famous for its pristine, emeraldcolored beaches and Atlantic Beach, north of Emerald Isle, is near popular Morehead City and across from the famous historic port town of Beaufort, NC. The midmarket remained very stable, dropping only slightly from 2022 to 2023. The $1 million to 2 million market experienced a slight decrease in 2023 as interest rates remained high. However, ultra-luxury market above $2 million in value experienced a 100% increase from 2022 to 2023 fourth quarter.
LAST 90 DAYS
ATLANTIC BEACH & EMERALD ISLE
Q4 Homes Sold
BALD HEAD & SOUTHPORT The southeastern tip of North Carolina has historically been a popular vacation spot for decades. The mix of historical significance and coastal beauty has made this area highly desirable. The mid-market remained similar from 2022 to 2023, with the luxury market doubling in sales from the fourth quarter of 2022 to 2023 and the ultra luxury market almost tripling. The demand for these areas and the lack of inventory continue to see homes moving up in price point.
LAST 90 DAYS
BALD HEAD ISLAND & SOUTHPORT
Q4 Homes Sold
CAROLINA & KURE BEACH With its proximity to Wilmington, the ferry to Southport, and the limited inventory and price appreciation of Wrightsville Beach, the Pleasure Island areas of Carolina and Kure Beach have become a highly sought after coastal destination. Long known for its relaxed vibe and small-town beach atmosphere, this area’s real estate market has seen major jumps in property values as well as unit sell-through. The $600,000-$1 million segment showed an 15% decrease in the fourth quarter of 2023 when compared to that of 2022. The $1 million-$2 million category showed a 20% decrease in closed transactions, and the ultra-luxury segment also experienced a 33% decrease in sold transactions from 2022 fourth quarter to 2023 fourth quarter.
LAST 90 DAYS
CAROLINA BEACH & KURE BEACH
Q4 Homes Sold
FIGURE EIGHT, PORTER'S NECK, & HAMPSTEAD Figure Eight Island, Porter's Neck, and Hampstead are north of Wilmington. Porter's Neck and Hampstead are two emerging markets that are developing a robust luxury market, while Figure Eight Island remains one of the region’s flagship upscale communities with some of the most significant coastal estate homes in the Carolinas. Inventory loosened in fourth quarter as the active listings went from 30 in the third quarter of 2023 to 40 active listings in the mid-market segment. There was a decrease in solds across the board, except in the luxury segment, with a 31% decrease in $600,000-$1 million market from 2022 to 2023, a 60% increase in the $1 million-$2 million segment and sales dropped from one to zero in the ultra-luxury segment.
LAST 90 DAYS
FIGURE 8 ISLAND, PORTER'S NECK & HAMPSTEAD
Q4 Homes Sold
HOLDEN BEACH & OAK ISLAND Holden Beach & Oak Island comprise the South Brunswick Islands southwest of Wilmington. Holden Beach was voted number one family-friendly beach several years in a row and remains one of the more restful and residential islands. Oak Island became inhabited in the early 19th century after Fort Caswell was constructed in 1838. It grew slowly, but by the 1930s, it had become a popular beach and hunting destination. Both markets have grown tremendously throughout the last few years. These coastal islands experienced a significant decrease in the $600,000-$1 million market segment, dropping from 56 sales in 2022 to 38 in 2023, but a slight increase in the $1 million-$2 million. There was a 20% decrease in the $2 million market segment.
LAST 90 DAYS
HOLDEN BEACH & OAK ISLAND
Q4 Homes Sold
ONSLOW COUNTY Located north of Wilmington, Onslow County was first created as Onslow Precinct in 1734 and then became a county in 1739. Jacksonville sits at the country seat and features a large military population due to Camp Lejeune, a large military base. Onslow County experienced a decrease in sales across the board from 2022 to 2023. The mid-market category experienced the largest decrease in sales from 2022 to 2023. With the active listing category being so much higher than the pending category across the board, it shows that Onslow County has a healthy amount of inventory. This market continues to see growth in every price segment.
LAST 90 DAYS
ONSLOW COUNTY
Q4 Homes Sold
TOPSAIL ISLAND & SURF CITY Topsail Island is a barrier island 45 minutes to an hour north of Wilmington that includes the beach town of Surf City, as well as North Topsail Beach. Topsail Island has long been a vacation spot favorite and Surf City is one of the most popular cities on Topsail Island. Topsail was one of the few coastal NC markets to experience an increase in sales across the board. The $600,000 to $1 million saw a 67% increase, the $1 million-$2 million saw a 6% increase, while the developing ultra luxury market above $2 million remained exactly the same in closings.
LAST 90 DAYS
TOPSAIL & SURF CITY
Q4 Homes Sold
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH & LANDFALL Wrightsville Beach is the furthest eastern part of Wilmington and one of the most popular beaches on the East Coast. Just a few minutes inland sits the prestigious Landfall community. This is a flagship gated golf course community in Wilmington, situated between Wrightsville Beach and the intracoastal waterway. In the $600,000 and $1 million market segment, there was a 27% increase from the fourth quarter of 2022 and the fourth quarter of 2023. The $1 million-$2 million market saw a 20% increase in 2023, going from 20 to 24 and the $2 million plus segment saw a 57% decrease in 2023.
LAST 90 DAYS
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH & LANDFALL
Q4 Homes Sold
WILMINGTON Wilmington is a historic port city along the Cape Fear River that features three gorgeous islands. The historic artistic culture is complemented by the small beach town aesthetic offered by toprated pristine beaches at Wrightsville Beach, historic Carolina Beach, and Kure Beach. The art, music, food, architecture, history, and natural beauty of Wilmington make it the #1 emerging market in the US (Mansion Global, 2022). The $600,000 and $1 million market segment saw a 14% increase in the fourth quarter of 2023 from the fourth quarter of 2022. The $1 million-$2 million market stayed the same and the $2 million plus segment saw a 50% decrease in 2023.
LAST 90 DAYS
WILMINGTON
Q4 Homes Sold
COASTAL MARKET FORECAST The Market Remains Relatively Stable as Interest Rates Come Down in 2024 With the reduction of interest rates in the new year, a lot of fourth quarter sales slowed as buyers were waiting for the new year interest rates. The market continues to see a shift that is resulting in higher days on market and more price reductions along the way. The Wrightsville Beach, Landfall and Wilmington markets remain desirable to buyers, particularly in the $600k-$1m price range. The most recent reports show inflation at 3.7%, with sights set on 2.4% as a 2024 average. Achieving favorable inflation numbers should help interest rates stabilize. The Dow Jones Industrial remained relatively consistent throughout the quarter despite a handful of volatile trading days. Interest rates have now declined into the 6.6% range yet many consumers may be weighing the prospect of further reductions as 2024 progresses. At the conclusion of the fourth quarter, many of the key markets represented in this report have more active inventory than pending transactions, which indicates absorption rates are now exceeding 45 days on market. In most price segments, this represents a rebalancing of the market to what are overall considered healthy market conditions, with many price segments continuing to display less than 90 days of inventory. While price decreases are beginning to take place, many of these are occurring with properties that came to market at historically high price points, often above trailing comps, and thus decreases may not reflect a decline in sold values so much as a mere lessening of the rate of appreciation. These results are similar to what is happening elsewhere in North Carolina. Financial markets continue to see levels that are three times greater than ten years ago, and luxury real estate continues to not only remain a stable investment, but one in which owners have multiple options in the case of secondary and investment properties.
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CHECK OUT OUR EMERGING MARKET REPORT! The long history of high demand of the Wilmington and Wrightsville Beach area has led many people to turn to other markets for luxury inventory. To read our 2023 report on coastal North Carolina's emerging markets, please visit the link below. https://bit.ly/3rps3PT
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