Q3 Lake Norman Luxury Market Report

As Interest Rates Climb, Luxury Market Outperforms Mid Market

Overall Market Report Community Updates

Cornelius Davidson Mooresville West Shore North Shore Concord & Kannapolis

Forecast

While Inventory Rises Slightly, Recent Refinancings and Long Term Lake Demand Bolster Prices

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As Interest Rates Climb, Luxury Market Outperforms Mid-Market

As interest rate sensitive price segments in the housing market slowed during the third quarter, the Lake Norman luxury market continued to show relative strength compared to lower price segments. Overall, as the quarter closed, the million- and multi-million-dollar ultra-luxury price points trended even or ahead of last year's Q3. Despite a national and local media narrative claiming that the luxury market had hit the skids, Cornelius, Mooresville, and Denver all posted impressive sold results in the $2 million-plus range. Additionally, 33 homes over $2 million closed in those markets compared to just 19 in last year's Q3, an increase of almost 70%. Conversely, the market below $1 million in list price has shown a demonstrable and quick decline following the tightening of credit markets and will likely return to conditions more similar to 2019.

Showings in the Lake Norman Region

Total showings increase and average showings per home slightly decline.

In most areas of Lake Norman, showing requests for homes display differing characteristics. As reported last quarter, the interest rate-sensitive ranges have now seen drop-offs from 15% to 25% over last year ' s summer activity below $1 million in list price. However, this is not across the board, as some areas have bucked the trend. Cresting $2 million in list price, showing activity remains very solid, with total showings around the lake coming in similarly to last year ' s Q3 totals. While inventory has risen slightly, the average number of showings per home has dropped by 10% or less in the upper ranges, yet may show more decline compared to last year ' s finish, which was strong by most standards.

Cornelius

The Cornelius market saw more balanced conditions emerge in some price segments, with active inventory and pending contracts balancing the mid-market range below $1 million. In part, inventory remained tight, between $1 million and 2 million, with just four active listings. In comparison, inventory in the ultra-luxe segment jumped to 20 active listings after ten homes closed in Q3, with 6 more pending.

Cornelius Q3 Home Sales

Davidson

Davidson also posted a solid quarter in line with last year ' s numbers, slightly off in the mid-market segment below $1 million, with 51 homes closing vs. 60 in last year ' s Q3 (-16%) while the luxury range over $1 million posted 21 closings, including two homes in the ultraluxury $2 million plus range. Davidson's overall values have climbed significantly since 2019, with quarterly sales matching 2019 ' s annual totals in the million range.

Davidson Q3 Home Sales

Mooresville

Like Cornelius, Mooresville saw fairly balanced conditions below $1 million in price, while the range between $1 million and 2 million finally showed some slowdown, declining from last year ' s Q3 total of 46 closings to 32. The ultra-lux segment chugged ahead similarly to Cornelius, with a lake leading 18 closings vs. last year ' s Q3 11 total while posting another 14 pending, all pointing to an excellent finish to the year for Q4.

Mooresville Q3 Home Sales

Denver | West Shore

Activity on Lake Norman's western shore showed an upward trend compared to last year ' s already strong Q3. Closed contracts were higher in all three price segments, mid-market, million dollar, and ultra-lux $2 million plus ranges. In addition, closings over $1 million increased to 19 home sales vs. 11 last year in the same quarter, including five estate home deals closing at over $2 million, with the highlight including a $5.2 million Ivester Jackson sale in Norman Estates.

West Shore Q3 Home Sales

North Shore

Troutman/Sherrills

Ford

The area above the highway 150 bridge showed similar results to last year ' s Q3 of 2021, albeit slightly off in closing activity. This area has shown consistent growth throughout the Covid-fueled expansion of the past two years, and the just-completed quarter's results are in line with last year ' s numbers. While low like elsewhere, inventory in this area still allows for some buyer selection, yet the area is now fully established as a viable option in the luxury and ultra-luxury segments over $1 million in list price with 14 closings in Q3 ' 22.

North Shore Q3 Home Sales

Concord & Kannapolis

As neighboring activity and improved amenities influence Cabarrus County's luxury market, the county is one of the hot emerging real estate markets in the Charlotte Metro area. The county saw a whopping 221 homes close between $500,000 and $1 million in list price, compared with 157 in last year ' s Q3. The million range, which not too long ago used to ring in the occasional sale over $1 million in list price, is now seeing near ten deals per quarter, a significant jump from 2019. In addition, downtown Concord and Kannapolis are both seeing re-development, and this area continues to offer tremendous long-term appreciation opportunities.

Concord & Kannapolis

Q3 Home Sales

Lake Norman Market Forecast

While Inventory Rises Slightly, Recent Refinancings and Long-Term Lake Demand Bolster Prices

While the days of pulling numbers out of the sky for home prices have certainly cooled, continued demand, particularly in luxury and ultra-luxury ranges, provides an ongoing stream of buyers interested in Lake Norman property. While total showings have remained on par with last year, increases in inventory in some segments are spreading that pool slightly.

Comparing the million-dollar-plus segment, showing interest remains very solid when framed against historic standards.

While we are starting to see declines in the upper ranges below last year's heated second half, showing requests, closings, and pending contracts continue to far exceed 2019 and 2020 levels in our area at a time when most of the country is seeing more severe declines.

Additionally, with the significant amount of lowinterest refinancing done in recent years, this activity should limit inventory increases in the short term, impacting home prices. At some point, dynamics in both the public and private financial sectors may trickle down to luxury home buying activity if IPO and private equity paths to business cash-outs remain constrained in combination with further deterioration in the public markets.

Currently, access to accumulated capital and demand for the area continues to drive demand at Lake Norman in the upper ranges. While experiencing declining demand, the mid-market ranges came into this summer's real estate market with historically acute inventory shortages in our area. Thus inventory will be a crucial indicator over the next six months.

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Ivester Jackson Christie's Team Captains

Lori Ivester Jackson (Lake Norman Region)

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