Q4 Market Report
January 2023
Overall Market Report
Luxury Market at Lake Norman Tapers Yet Outperforms National Market
Community Updates
Cornelius
Davidson
Mooresville
West Shore
North Shore
Concord & Kannapolis
Forecast
2 Million Plus Range - This segment continues to bubble at triple pre-covid year totals
The upper price segments at Lake Norman did finally show some tapering in the 4th quarter, with the mid-market and million dollar price segments, which are more interest rate sensitive, showing more tapering than the ultra-luxury range above $2 million in price. Cornelius and Mooresville showed solid activity above $2 million with 26 closings vs. 22 last year. At the same time, the million dollar range recorded the second most active 4th quarter in recent history, albeit off slightly from 2021 ' s final quarter of the year. One of the quarter's surprises included a spike in sales of million dollar homes in the North Shore areas above highway 150 on the lake, as 27 homes closed vs. 16 in last year ' s final quarter.
While the range below $1 million in list price showed a decline from 41 closings to 32 in Q4, this total was still enough to equal one of the top final quarters in recent history, as inventory remained tight in Cornelius (just 12 actives under $1 million with 14 more under contract) In the luxury ranges, inventory shortages remained acute in the million dollar range (4 actives coming off 13 closings in Q4). In contrast, the ultra-luxury range above $2 million saw a surge in inventory to 17 active homes after 11 closed in Q4.
While Davidson has traditionally seen more tapering over the winter due to its market having a smaller vacation home market, unit sell through just under $1 million did fall about 30% from 2021 ' s Q4. The luxury segment over $1 million displayed solid dynamics, with 10 homes closing in Q4 vs. 12 the prior year, while 13 additional homes supported active inventory of 24 homes over $1 million under pending contracts.
As development spread up the Perth Road corridor, Mooresville's luxury market saw high activity, with 123 closings between $500k and $1 million. In comparison, the million and ultra-luxury ranges saw 39 and 15 closings, respectively, matching and exceeding last year ' s record setting Q4. Inventory in both luxury price segments remained tight, with 24 actives in the million range with 19 homes pending, while the ultra-luxury range sported 10 active listings with 6 pending contracts, both less than 90 days' absorption.
The west shore area displayed similar characteristics to Davidson, with the market under $1 million in list price showing more tapering (34 closings in Q4 vs. 49 the prior year). Inventory in this segment remained manageable, with 34 active homes supported by 24 pending contracts.
The luxury range in the west shore area performed solidly, with 15 closings over $1 million in list price, compared to 18 closings in the record breaking Q4 of 2021. Seven homes listed over $1 million were under contract entering this first quarter, with another 12 actively listed, with very manageable inventory conditions.
4646 Sierra View Drive | $2,387,000
6653 Goose Point Drive | $851,000
The North Shore area showed a contrasting dynamic While the mid-market price segment between $500k and $1 million in list price showed significant tapering in closings (from 65 units down to 26 in this Q4), active inventory remained manageable in the range with 32 actives and 21 pending contracts. The luxury range above $1 million was one of the lake's surprises, with 27 Q4 closings vs. just 16 the prior year. This dropped inventory to 15 active listings above $1 million, with another 12 homes pending.
Continuing to ride spillover activity from the northern parts of Mecklenburg County and new development options, Cabarrus County saw 108 closings in the midmarket range just below $1 million (in any other year, a historic total but off from Q4 2021). The luxury range in the county continued to emerge, with 4 closings over $1 million compared to 6 in the prior year ' s closing quarter. Additionally, 7 active million dollar homes are listed entering this year ' s first quarter, with another 2 under contract.
2 Million Plus Range - This segment continues to bubble at triple pre-covid year totals. 109 closings vs. 31 in 2019, 27 in just completed Q4, and 9 pending. Strong, combining an element of second home interest with proximity to Charlotte.
1 Million-1.99M - Continues to chug along at a pace about double the pre-covid totals of 2019. Record year with 298 closings, but a little tapering in Q4 to 69 sales vs. 77 the year before. 24 pendings pointing to a year with another 250+ closings
FROM MARKET FORECASTS, INTERVIEWS, AND HOUSE
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