Ivester Jackson Christie's Lake Norman Luxury Market Report
Q4 2021
Q4 Market Report
contents December 2021
MARKET REPORT Lake Norman Market Sees Historic Activity While Inventory Shrinks
COMMUNITY UPDATES Cornelius Davidson Mooresville Denver | West Shore North Shore Concord & Kannapolis
FORECAST The Lake Norman and North Charlotte markets continued to show explosive growth.
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4th Quarter Luxury Market Report THE REGION’S OUTLYING COUNTIES EMERGE AS LUXURY ENCLAVES
One of the biggest stories related to the Covid impact of the past two years has been the emergence of million-dollar and luxury estate property activity outside the traditional hub of Mecklenburg County. Places like Eastover, Myers Park, SouthPark, and Cornelius remain high demand areas for luxury home buyers. Work from home conditions, the attraction of more acreage, new construction properties, and an emphasis on outdoor lifestyles have all propelled the region’s outlying counties to unprecedented luxury activity. The six-county area surrounding Mecklenburg accounted for more than 754 transactions above $1 million in value in 2021, compared to 1,008 in a traditionally strong Mecklenburg. Further, while Mecklenburg showed a robust increase from 795 closings in 2020 to 1,008 in 2021, momentum in the outlying areas bested this increase,
as closed transactions in 2020 totaled 457, increasing to 754 in 2021, or a whopping 65%, now accounting for 43% of all transactions in the region over $1 million. In the ultra-luxury range above $2 million in value, a segment that sizzled in North Carolina in 2021, both in Mecklenburg and the surrounding counties showed increases in sell-through of over 70%, with the surrounding areas posting an increase from 43 to 77 closed properties, a record increase of over 78%. Individually, Union County led the way with a near 100% increase to 286 transactions over $1 million, while Iredell, home to The Point, recorded 248 closings in that segment. Emerging areas in the $1 Million+ segment include Cabarrus, Catawba, York, and Lincoln counties, all recorded increases in the 40% to over 100% range.
Surrounding Regions
Surrounding Regions
Lake Norman LAKE NORMAN SEES HISTORIC RECORD ACTIVITY WHILE INVENTORY SHRINKS
Continued scarcity on the inventory side drove conditions in Lake Norman’s high demand areas while also pushing buyers into new areas in record numbers.
CORNELIUS Landlocked Cornelius continued to see high demand, albeit declining sell-through due to low inventory. Just three homes remained active in the mid-market luxury segment below $1 million in list price after a quarter when 41 homes sold. In the upper segments, just four homes remained active between $1 million and $2 million in list price, after the 4th quarter of 2021 saw 21 homes close in that range. Cornelius also saw record price point sales throughout 2021, with Ivester Jackson setting a Peninsula Club record with a sale over $6 million on Flying Jib Road. Ivester Jackson closed out the year with the highest priced off-water sale in Cornelius history, a $3.5 million acreage estate on Torrence Chapel Road.
CORNELIUS Q4 HOMES SOLD
Listings | Cornelius
Under Contract 19124 Peninsula Point Drive $4,500,000
Sold | Cornelius 16602 Flying Jib Road $6,250,000 17723 Springwinds Drive $1,326,000 17316 Lake Path Drive $549,900 21123 Torrence Chapel Road $3,550,000 20809 Lagoona Drive $1,650,000 19532 Weavers Circle $972,500 16821 America Cup Road $1,427,500 16439 Jetton Road $3,575,000 19819 Stough Farm Road $1,300,000 18619 John Connor Road $865,000 15905 Robbins Green Drive $785,000 17826 Carlow Road $3,300,000 19513 Natalie Road $970,000 18320 Peninsula Club Drive $1,125,000 18121 Harbor Light Boulevard $3,210,000 19607 Olde Spring Court $1,675,000
DAVIDSON Much like high-demand Cornelius inventory in popular Davidson has continued to get snapped up throughout 2021. The year ended with 62 sales in Q4 in the mid-market segment just below $1 million, along with a very strong 12 closings in excess of $1 million in list price. New construction options in the $1 million and even $2 million segment have been very popular in places like Narrow Passage and The Reserve at River Run.
DAVIDSON Q4 HOMES SOLD
Listings | Davidson
10600 Archer Road $4,150,000 2451 Shiloh Church Road $869,000
Sold | Davidson
19610 Shearer Road $1,150,000 18616 Hammock Lane $1,054,900 630 James Alexander Way $1,470,000 15715 June Washam Road $1,425,000 17924 Pages Pond Court $689,000 311 South Street $475,000
MOORESVILLE The mid-market luxury segment below $1 million continued to show high activity in Mooresville, with 126 homes closing and 76 more pending to close in the first quarter of 2022. This price segment also saw some new construction inventory come online as 39 active listings just below $1 million were available heading into 2022. In the luxury and ultra-luxury segments, Mooresville showed 27 homes pending between $1 million and $2 million in list price, with 6 pending in the ultra-lux segment after Q4 saw 11 closings over $2 million. This segment also saw two of the highest-priced sales on the lake with Ivester Jackson recording sales above the $5 million range on Tuskarora Trail and Eastham in The Point.
MOORESVILLE Q4 HOMES SOLD
Listings | Mooresville
158 Cove View Drive $1,500,000 111 Kent Court $799,000
Sold | Mooresville
302 Marietta Road $1,750,000 107 Eastham Court $5,350,000 153 Ballycastle Road $2,300,000 192 Chandeleur Drive $620,000 182 Brownstone Drive $1,750,000 612 Barber Loop $1,300,000 543 Isle Of Pines Road $1,190,000 142 Hornbeam Lane #494 $485,923
WEST SHORE The West Shore communities of Stanley and Denver continued to be in high demand for the mid-market luxury buyer between $500,000 and $1 million with 81 homes closing in this range in Q4. We also have 42 pending contracts heading into 2022. This strong market activity along with the luxury segment over $1 million, is attracting amenities to the West Shore communities. Improved road access also allows for some of the best commuter mobility in the lake area. The ultra-luxury segment continued to emerge, with Ivester Jackson brokering sales above $3 million in list price with another estate home pending to close in Q1 ’22.
DENVER | WEST SHORE Q4 HOMES SOLD
Listings Denver | West Shore
2778 Cherry Lane $1,895,000 Under Contract 6903 Pin Oaks Drive $435,000 8343 Norman Estates Drive $3,190,000
Sold Denver |West Shore
4638 Mariner Lane $650,000 5250 Looking Glass Trail $635,000
NORTH SHORE As previously mentioned the emergence of migration to the more rural counties of the region has impacted Catawba County and the North Shore communities of Lake Norman, Terrell, Sherrills Ford, Troutman, and Statesville. In 2020, this pattern emerged in the mid-market segment below $1 million and continues to show strength with 60 closings in Q4 and another 38 pending contracts heading into Q1 of ’22. The more recent story is the emergence of the luxury segment in the $1 million range and $2 million+ in list price. New construction options, acreage, improved roads, and amenities, have all impacted demand for luxury homes in this price range, with a strong 23 homes currently pending over $1 million in price. Ivester Jackson expects to close an estate home in Troutman above the $2.5 million thresholds in the current quarter.
NORTH SHORE Q4 HOMES SOLD
Listings & Sold North Shore
Under Contract 180 Eagle Chase Lane $2,850,000
CONCORD & KANNAPOLIS As 2020 ended, we added Cabarrus County to our watch list of emerging luxury enclaves. 2020's Q4 saw midmarket luxury sales in the $500,000 to $1 million range, spike to 64 units for the quarter. Fast forward a year and we looked like prophets. In the just-ended Q4 of 2021, an incredible 153 units closed, while 157 were under contract as new construction development surged across the county and enjoyed spillover buying from low inventory towns like Cornelius and Davidson. In the $1 million segment, annualized sell-through spiked from 11 units to 29 for the year, with another 5 homes pending above $1 million as we head into 2022. Areas around Trinity Church Road and Harris Road are emerging with small enclave luxury development.
CONCORD & KANNAPOLIS Q4 HOMES SOLD
Listings Under Contract 9375 Harris Road $1,299,000 Sold 2562 Shoal Park Road $575,000 740 Poplar View Drive NW #56 $601,200
LAKE NORMAN MARKET FORECAST With the decrease in inventory, total showing requests through the MLS system can be inventory driven (i.e. more houses to look at tends to equal more total showing requests.) That said, we also look at average showings per active listing. In theory, if there are only 5 houses in an area where a year ago there were 20, total requests might be down, but the average per house should at least remain constant or in fact increase. Cornelius actually showed increases in both total requests, and average requests per home of the last 90 days, from 10 showings last year in the same period, to 15.3 this year, an increase of 50%. The areas we cover in this report showed slight to strong increases in the average showing requests per house in the luxury price ranges. Some standouts include the North Shore and Cabarrus County markets, with the $1 million market in the North Shore communities seeing a doubling of showing requests while the midmarket range in Cabarrus showed an increase of over 35% per house. These are all trend lines indicative of continued strong demand and new demand in emerging areas.
The real estate market has been on an extended run since recovering from the great recession of a decade ago. Inventory continues to significantly trail demand nationally, and North Carolina has thrived as a “go-to” destination for young professionals, corporate relocation, and lifestyle interests. All of which should continue in the short run. Historically, real estate has been impacted negatively by rising interest rates, geopolitical instability, and volatility in the financial markets, all of which we may experience to some degree over the next several months. Rates have already jumped from below 3% to near 3.6% in the new year, yet inventory has continued to decline over the winter months. Over the past decade, with government and Federal Reserve intervention, trillions of stimulus dollars have flowed into the financial system. The luxury real estate consumer has grown more resilient to short term volatility while the historically acute inventory situation has provided for continued demand in periods where a more cautious segment of the luxury consumer buyer may have stepped to the sideline. Strong relocation demand from other areas of the country where asset values are higher has also filled in demand gaps where perhaps local resistance to upward pricing pressures has kicked in (at least up until this point). Put simply, buyers with a relative perspective of higher asset values tend to scrutinize current pricing less than someone who’s locally observed upward pressure. They also tend to compare the attributes of the area from which they are moving to those of our region and invest in the long term prospects.
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