LUXURY MARKET REPORT
Western North Carolina | Q3 2023
contents Q3 Market Report | October 2023 MARKET REPORT Lagging inventory and skyrocketing mortgage rates have slowed the midmarket, while cash buyers continue to flock to the area's luxury and ultra-luxury homes across the region.
COMMUNITY UPDATES Asheville (City, North) Downtown Asheville Condos Buncombe County Arden Biltmore Forest Henderson County Foothills Fairview/Fletcher
FORECAST With inventory still in record low territory, prices should continue to stabilize moving into the 4th Quarter of 2023.
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3rd Quarter Luxury Market Report
Buncombe County Statistics
Sparse inventory and rising interest rates have remained a relevant part of the market across Western North Carolina in the 3rd Quarter of 2023. While the mid-market has seen an erosion of sales activity, the luxury and ultra-luxury market have seen an uptick across the region. Cash buyers have flooded the market in Buncombe County with over 75% of transactions in the Ultra-Luxury range (2M+) being closed as all cash transactions, while only 21% were closed as conventional mortgages. As interest rates continue to rise, we will likely see sales in the rate sensitive markets continue to diminish, while cash sales continue to climb.
CITY OF ASHEVILLE Bucking the trend, the mid-market in the City of Asheville has remained by and large fairly flat with 126 closed sales between 600k-999k as compared to 131 during the same time period of 2022. Pending sales and inventory numbers point to a flat 4th quarter as compared to 2022, which indicates high demand and low inventory. The ultra-luxury range has also remained flat year over year with 15 completed transactions, while inventory has soared with 45 homes currently on the market. With pending sales up across the board, we should see steady sales activity heading into the 4th quarter of 2023.
LAST 90 DAYS
CITY OF ASHEVILLE
Q3 Homes Sold
NORTH ASHEVILLE Low inventory has continued to hamper sales activity across price points in North Asheville. The ultra-luxury range (2M+) has seen a surge in activity with 7 closed transactions in 2023 vs only 4 in the same time period of 2022. We expect inventory to remain low heading into the 4th quarter which in turn will continue to stifle sales activity.
LAST 90 DAYS
NORTH ASHEVILLE
Q3 Homes Sold
DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE CONDOS Condos in downtown Asheville have seen an increase in sales in the midmarket as well as the luxury market, while inventory has continued to grow across all price segments. New developer units are hitting the market on a weekly basis. As a result, we expect the 4th quarter to also show an increase in sales activity, as showings have remained fairly steady in recent months.
LAST 90 DAYS
DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE CONDOS
Q3 Homes Sold
BUNCOMBE COUNTY The ultra-luxury segment of the market in Buncombe County appears to not have missed a beat with sales up year over year in the same time period, while also showing a jump in pending sales and new listings on the market. This price segment tends to not be as rate sensitive, as mortgage interest rates soar into the 8% range. Overall the mid and luxury markets have seen steady sell-through, but interest rates seem to have some buyers on the sidelines waiting on a dip in the 30 year rate.
LAST 90 DAYS
BUNCOMBE COUNTY
Q3 Homes Sold
BILTMORE FOREST As one of the flagship neighborhoods in Buncombe County, we have seen an increase in sales activity in Biltmore Forest between 1-1.99M. The 3rd Quarter of 2022 saw only one sale in this price range, while the same time period of 2023 saw 4. The ultra-luxury range saw a dip in the action, but pending sales are showing strong numbers, thus pointing to an increase in sales during Q4. Inventory has remained sparse in Biltmore Forest which will prove to be the main obstacle rounding out 2023.
LAST 90 DAYS
BILTMORE FOREST
Q3 Homes Sold
ARDEN & FAIRVIEW/ FLETCHER Arden Inventory challenges and high interest rates have continued to affect sales in the mid-market. The luxury segment was up and the ultra-luxury segment was flat as compared to 2022. New construction in neighborhoods such as the Cliffs at Walnut Cove will add much needed housing stock in Arden. This mid-market has seen pending contracts dwindle to 8, which is a direct result of low inventory and sky-high mortgage rates. Fairview/Fletcher The higher end of this market has remained flat with 12 sales in 2023 vs 13 in 2022 (1-1.99M) and 2 sales in 2023 as compared to 2 sales in 2022 in the 2M+ range. Sales in the rate sensitive mid-market segment saw sales cut in half with only 16 during the 3rd quarter as compared to 32 in 2022. Pending contracts have soared in all three segments, which points to robust sales numbers for the 4th quarter into 2024.
LAST 90 DAYS
ARDEN
Q3 Homes Sold
LAST 90 DAYS
FAIRVIEW/FLETCHER
Q3 Homes Sold
HENDERSON COUNTY Henderson County has continued its upwards climb with 2 of the 3 price points up year over year while the ultra-luxury range remained flat. The pending sales in all three segments are relatively high and should produce elevated sales numbers in the 4th quarter of 2023. Inventory is still low in Henderson County and will remain a stumbling block if demand continues to rise at its current pace.
LAST 90 DAYS
HENDERSON COUNTY
Q3 Homes Sold
FOOTHILLS: POLK, RUTHERFORD, CLEVELAND COUNTY The Foothills saw an inbound migration boom during much of 2020-2022, which has begun to slow, but is still ahead of prepandemic levels across the Foothills. Championed by its close proximity to Charlotte, Greenville, and Asheville, buyers are still looking for a slower pace of life as well as more bang for their buck. Inventory in the mid-market has risen steadily, while both luxury segments have seen inventory dwindle. Pending sales are showing signs of life and the 4th quarter should see steady sell-through across the Foothills.
LAST 90 DAYS
FOOTHILLS: POLK, RUTHERFORD, CLEVELAND COUNTIES
Q3 Homes Sold
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA MARKET FORECAST Rising Interest Rates & Tempered Demand Create Mixed Results Across The Region The Western North Carolina region has continued to stabilize as mortgage rates hit a 20 year high cresting over 8%. While a majority of our second home and luxury sales are completed as cash transactions, the mid-market is still very rate sensitive and has slowed both inventory and sell-through. Heading into the 4th quarter, inventory remains low while inbound migration has stayed solid. Those factors should equate to moderate appreciation levels and sustainable sales numbers. Showing activity has been a mixed bag during the 3rd quarter, but should be robust during peak leaf season across the area.
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