THE 4 HORIZON OF GHANA'S GROWTH

This presentaon on Wealth Creaon as the 4thHorizon forGhana's Growthisintended to seed a review of the opons Ghana has to create an economic transformaon and interrogate some ideas and opons best suited fo r t h e r e c o v e r y, d e v e l o p m e n t a n d transformaon of Ghana's economy. A transformaon that moves finance, people, jobs in selected sectors from low to high producvity andasustainedresilientgrowthtrajectory.

We have always assumed that if we produce more, we will earn more revenue and with more revenue, be able to look aer our economy and cizens much beer. But the proof of 66 years of independence is that more revenue does not necessarily lead to sustainable development that creates resilient wealth. The queson then becomes why we have allowed this false paradigm - that revenue equals development equalswealth-tostandforsolong.

If we look at agriculture in the last seven decades, we have paid much aenon to producon However, private and public investments in technology, related sciences, agriproduct branding, commercialising value-added agriproducts, and developing global markets for the services and know-how built through the agriculture and agribusiness value chains, have been insignificant and not sustained. Consequently, agribusiness remains a daunng exercise and therefore a low priority in allocang resources.Thisisinstarkcontrasttothestrategies successfully employed by Thailand, Indonesia, VietnamandMalaysiawhousedagriproductsand tourism to power economic transformaons.

Largely, revenues from cocoa exports, for example, have not gone into creang new industries, rather, apart from the allocaons to scholarships, , the billions of dollars Ghana has earned from exporng cocoa have been spent paying for recurrent expenditure and in some cases on bare-faced corrupon. Lile wonder that the sector has failed to drive Ghana's development.

Where do we find new ways to create industries from the agricultural supply chains, in plantaons, in storage, in value addion, in branding, markeng our food to the rest of the world and export market development? These have the potenal to turn revenue into new industry-building investments that generate stable, beer-paid jobs and medium-term wealth. Though mature, agribusiness could sll be a source of long-term wealth. It is possible to maximise the residual value, earn significant surpluses and seed long-term growth in new industries.

The story of our heritage and creave industries is not much different. Revenues are mostly spent on low-value-adding acvies, employing few people in the sector and maintaining structures. Very lile has been invested in creave industries that help us tell our story beer to a global audience and generate profits in the process. I giveyoutheexampleofTheLionKing.Thestoryof Lion King originates from Southern Africa. Yet the story has been told to a global audience and commercialised by Hollywood. Hollywood has earned billions from films, merchandise, games, theatre products, and animaons. Southern Africa saw lile of that money and the creators of the theme song earned no royales. So, what stories do we have that we can tell beer using different formats that can fetch us billions in revenues beyond inving people to visit Ghana? We can create new industries allied to the original baseheritageandcreaveeconomy.

Now considering ICT, Ghana sits in the West African sub-region where we sll have one of the best educaonal systems. We have the potenal to leverage the brain power of our academia and students, parcularly in the relavely new areas of ICT and technology Yet, students from across the region who graduate from places like Ashesi University, having developed ICT and technology soluons for Africa and the world, leave yearly without the opportunity to register and build their ideas into businesses in Ghana. Today, we are dependent on soluons created outside our region based on the needs of other sociees and cultures. All governments have overtaxed and inhibited the growth of ICT and technology industries rather than incubang technology firms and ICT soluons relevant to the needs of our market, the daily realies of our cizens and solving global problems. It will be beer to untax technology and demand that firms heavily reinvest their profits to smulate new technology industries.

WhyFocusonWealthCreaon?

My view is that rather than pursue revenue as an end in itself, it is even more important to decide how we will invest revenue in new spheres of high-value enterprise to generate stable, highquality revenue streams that bring resilience to the economy. I agree with the view that Wealth Creaon means a sustainable acquision and accumulaon of resources to compevely generate relevant output and financial flows to aain naonal development goals that fulfil the needs of cizens without compromising the ability of future generaons to meet their own needsii. This sort of Wealth Creaon indelibly improvesthequalityoflifeforallcizens.

Post-pandemic and debt default, there is an openingtoresettheeconomy.

Embracing Wealth Creaon as the development model for Ghana is right for many reasons, includingtherecognionthat:

1. the days of one-size-fits-all soluons and exporng unprocessed cocoa, metals and fish; and lile processed and illegal mber are no longer viable in the new global economic p a ra d i g m . G h a n a s h o u l d e m b ra c e differenated paths to its wealth creaon goals and the managers of the economy must implement customised wealth creaon strategiesforselectedindustries.

2. to remain relevant and compeve in global markets requires a diversified reservoir of intellectual property, patents, innovaon, and value-addionthatis'Made-in-Ghana'.

3. sustainable profits and savings determine the pace of investments in human capital developments and innovaons to create new anchor technologies that will maximise the speed, scale and longevity of economic transformaon.

To paraphrase Dr Seyram Kawor of the UCC, “no country borrows to develop. Borrowingmust only supplement a country's own accumulaon of its own resources and revenues.” Therefore, amid global volality, a fluctuang Cedi, vanishing domesc savings and investments, and emped naonal reserves, we have to step back and urgently

(1). priorise creang resilient wealth with robustbufferstocontainmajorshocks.

(2) determine a new vision for wealth creaon and

(3) decide how to achieve material i m p r o v e m e n t a n d q u a l i t a v e transformaon for the benefit of cizens nowandintothefuture.

Letmeexplainwhy.

CHANGEISUPONUS:OPPORTUNITIESABOUND

As in Africa and the developing world, Ghana's economy straddles centuries of economic revoluon from the mechanisaon of agriculture, the development of industry, the rise of services, and the knowledge economy powered by communicaons, arficial intelligence, nanotechnology and biosciences Ghana's economy is integrated with the global economy through global trade and financial markets and the intertwining of our economy with these powerful economic systems opens up new opportunies for growth and wealth creaon. Ghana has an opportunity in the coming decades to harmonise all four revoluons to accelerate economic transformaon and wealth creaon. There is no beer me than now when we have been presented with the “historic opportunity to dosowiththeAfricaFreeTradeConnentalArea” toquotetheWorldBank.

CHANGEISUPONUS:DOMESTICDISLOCATIONS

On the other hand, we have all witnessed worldwide economic disrupons since 2020, and the slide of Ghana's economy into an unprecedented economic abyss that we are beginning to understand began as early as 2018. The ongoing collapse and uncertainty generated connue to spook financial markets, slow investment and ulmately economic acvity into the medium term Perversely, if the global recovery connues to strengthen and as policies to frame the new global economic order are normalised, an emerging economy such as Ghana, can expect the process to expose its economy to external shocks and adverse spillovers, even as we strive to remain a viable player in key global economic systems – unless we build a more robust economy Just as Winston Churchill advised, we should not waste this crisis. Itisanopportunitytoremodeltheeconomy

CHANGEISUPONUS:FUTUREDEVELOPMENTS

Three major developments are predicted between now and 2040 in the November 2021 World Bank Country Economic Memorandum tled Ghana Rising: Accelerang Economic Transformaon and Creang Jobs; (a) Ghana's populaon will rise to 45 million (b) six in every ten people will be less than 30 years old, and (c) about 10 million young Ghanaians will join the labour force and must be gainfully engaged. It notes that "Ghana faces an acute challenge of generang more and beer jobs and has a 'missing middle' of employment in midproducvity sectors". However, all is not lost. The report further acknowledged that Ghana has all it takes to connue being an economic development star if it takes the right steps to nurture growth and job creaon despite the debilitang effect of the pandemic. And I will add even more crically restoring prudent economic management. Specifically, the World Bank highlighted;

(1) macroeconomicstability,

(2) financialsectordevelopment,

(3) technologicaltransformaon,

(4) fosteringgreaterglobalintegraon, and I will addasakeypoint,

(5) restoring a robust governance architecture to underpinthefourpriories

Awalkdownmemorylane

In the Post-World War II process of wealth creaon, sub- Saharan Africa along with parts of the Middle East, the former Communist-Socialist bloc and Lan America lost ground in various degrees to the winners like France, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong, and then, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and Chinaiii. Some heavily-endowed naons and regions mismanaged their blessingsiv whilst countries with precious lile became adept at sustainably acquiring and accumulang resources and improving the lives of their people indelibly. We know where Ghana fits in this picture.

Let us step briefly into 1957 to hear Victor Adams' describe the hope and opmism for a beer future when church bells rang across the city of Accra to signal the birth of modern Ghana, to the e-newsleer UN Africa Renewal. He was in his home village of Shiashi, a suburb of the Ghanaian capital. Shiashi had no electricity, roads or piped water There were only eight mud houses in the enre village. Shiashi and its surrounding areas have since been transformed but signs of underdevelopment sll abound, including poor sanitaon, unpaved roads and makeshi homes. In a way, the story of Shiashi reflects Ghana's uneven economic and social development over the years. A middle school student at the me of independence, Mr Adams said, "Our country could have done beer." Many Ghanaians share thatsenment.

Ghana requires a new economic model to translate resources and revenues into resilient WealthCreaon.

Ghana cannot create wealth by just earning more money. If that were untrue we would be rich from over 100 years of cocoa, bauxite and gold exports alone. The economy needs a new paradigm where we consciously reserve porons of our earnings to invest in a connuous process of resource accumulaon designed to create parallel streams of income through private industry and human capital investments. It cannot be a short-term acvity. Secondly, wealth creaon should have a clear intent to generate and distribute opportunies across all stages of priorised value chains. This clarity is crucial for the quality of outcomes from the allocaons of resources:

(1) for human and capital investments to produceabiggereconomy,

(2) to transform Ghana into a technology and innovaon-driveneconomy

(3) tosupportdomescindustrialgrowth,and

(4) tosustain,resilientlong-termGDPgrowth. Ghana as a developing country ought to be aggressive about developing opportunies through policy-making to aract investments We must support innovaon and producvity soluons that will enable the economy to generate wealth by aracng the spending and investments of both local and global consumers and investors. The “if we build it, they will come” approach of the Emirates is proof posive of the success of pursuing wealth creaon as a naonal objecve.

For too long greed and corrupon, self-interest, polical longevity, the desire for aggrandising , power and social relevance have been the main obstacles undermining wealth creaon in Ghana. These movaons end with the erosion of the well-being of cizens. Unfortunately, commentary on intangible sources of wealth like the environment, innovaon, intellectual assets, social order etcetera are underplayed and remain elusive in economic and sociological literature. And we dare not look to naonal glory and honour for inspiraon. Yet, these are what should strengthen the extent to which we produce sustainedeconomicwealthandgrowth.

The Alchemy of Growth - The Three Horizons of Growth

Somemes being a late bloomer has its advantages. Once the consensus bakes in, Ghana will have a fresh canvas on which to define how to straddle the economic revoluons in agriculture, industry, services and the new knowledge industriesandvaluechains.

(1) The first horizon should aim to shi the core of naonal revenues to agribusiness by rapidly expanding the scale, quality and performance of derivave industries that either add value to or innovate around previously raw or lightly processed agricultural products. It should shi targeted investments to increase their efficiency and producvity. The same logic should apply to value-added cultural exports, tourism productsandotherbasicexports.

(2) The second horizon is the phase for selecng and resourcing emerging technological and innovaonindustrieswhichshouldbeatthe core of the New Ghana economy A successful strategy will create self-funding growth from entrepreneurial ventures that will generate substanal broad and longterm economic opportunies very quickly in thetransformaoncycle.

The transion to technology and innovaon driven industries requires three major shis in culture,mind-setandfocusasfollows:

● THESHIFTINCULTURE

Ÿ SharetheVisionandCultureoftheFuture

Ÿ Clearly define the strategic direcon of the economy and society and get everyone deeply movated by and commied to the journey to transformlives;notjustchangelifestyles.

Ÿ Highlight the new naonal values and end the culture of seeing the naon's tolerance for mediocre leaders as infinite and embrace a meritocracy. Demand changed behaviours to undergird the transformaon agenda in terms of personal responsibility and being accountable.

Ÿ Build the right habits to be a self-sufficient economy Emphasise sound economic principles such as moderang consumerism and disciplined work-ethic, building compeve advantage across industries, low

debt,andbuyingMade-in-Ghana.

● THE SHIFT IN MIND-SET – STEP OUT. STAND OUT

Ÿ Develop Ghana Inc. as an economic philosophy founded on discipline, keeping high standards, andintegrity;theproteconofindividualrights, property rights, and the environment; and the supremacyoftheruleoflaw

Ÿ Build ecosystems to promote trade and relaonships that reinforce our development andgrowthplans.

Ÿ Intensify partnerships in markets and knowledge that enable the economy to ulise natural and human resources more efficiently andeffecvelythanbefore.

Ÿ Break from the socioeconomic and polical norms in the African region. Arculate a bold, standout vision about what life, work and leisureintheNewGhanaeconomywillbelike.

● THE SHIFT TO FOCUS – PRIORITISE INVESTMENTS

Ÿ Increase the savings rate in the economy and make generaonal investments in mulple, long-term income flows; and break the false beliefthatfinancialsuccessispossiblewithouta disciplined focus on raising the rates of savings, (re)invesng, and increasing the levels of financial literacy and business skills. Ergo, put wealth creaon above borrowing and creang unsustainabledebt.

Ÿ Concentrate government spending on naonal priories and human resources founded on broad consensus, not polical iniaves and schemes that drive the cost of government but do not create value; do not waste naonal resources on short-term projects and conspicuousconsumponingovernment.

Ÿ Decide more strategically, whose money to use for what. Leverage the geopolics of today. Blend the resources of private investors with those of emerging economies, the IMF and World Bank, China, India and the West in seeking financing to invest in skills, physical infrastructure, and business development. LearntoGAMEandstopbeingPLAYERS.

(3) The third and farthest-looking horizon of wealth creaon, targets how to elongate long-term growth by leveraging exploratory investmentsinR&D;anddeployingstrategies and technologies to establish new agribusinesses, creave, heritage, knowledge and technological industries to secure five long-term fundamentals in the NewGhanaeconomy,namely:

1. Job creaon through the radical transformaon of the core sectors and transioning of labour with new skills into new industries with higher producvity –especially innovaon, ICT and business services. These more socially and geographically mobile workers also expand domesc trade, urbanisaon, and connecvity.

2. Producvity growth, intensified innovaon and entrepreneurship rates through domesc firms' adopon of digital and complementary technologies to accelerate the economic transformaon. To enable this change, The New Ghana will require r a d i c a l l y i m p r o v e d m i c r o - l e v e l infrastructure, internet connecvity and investmentsinawiderangeofdigitalskillsto facilitatetechnologyadoponbyfirms.

3. Inclusive private sector development that leverages domesc savings and financial resources to facilitate technology adopon, innovaonandtheexpansionoflocalfirms.

4. Macro and fiscal stability, beer natural resource management and smart, broadbased revenue mobilisaon to generate revenues to fund reforms and economic transformaon.

5. Long-term inclusive growth that incenvises sustainable exploitaon of natural resources, protects the environment and minimises the impactofclimatechangeonhouseholds.

Leadershipiseverything

Leadership isindeedacrucialfactorinthesuccess anddevelopmentofanycountry,Ghanaincluded. It inspires and unites people, drives progress and economic growth, and makes posive changes in the lives of cizens happen. The underpinnings of Leadership are the Values of leaders that play a crucial role in determining the success of any country's efforts towards wealth creaon. The values held by Ghanaian leaders will significantly impact the country's economic growth, job creaon, and development. For Ghana to achieve sustainable and inclusive economic growth, its leaders must exorcise the wicked torments of mismanagement, corrupon and greed; and priorise core values, the most needed of which are:

Values

1 Integrity: the self-confidence to act with honesty and transparency in all their dealings, whether in public or private sector roles to build trust and credibility with cizens,investors,andotherstakeholders.

2. Accountability: the humility to take responsibility for their acons and answer to the people they serve. This means being willing to submit to tough quesons, admit mistakes, and take correcve acon to securethefuture.

Attitudes

3. Innovaon:theforethought,ancipaon,and adaptaon we somemes describe as being visionary Add to that, invesng in research and development, entrepreneurship, and the passion to promote creavity that changes lives in all aspects of society and all sectors of the economy This ecosystem enables innovaon, start-ups, and small businesses to thrive.

Behaviours

4. Discipline: respect for the new social norms, therule-oflawandarespectforme.

5. Inclusivity: invesng in educaon and training for all cizens to ensure fair access to the benefits from economic growth for all segments of society; promong gender equality, and creang employment opportuniesformarginalisedgroups.

6. Sustainability: priorising resilience from sustainable development pracces, protecng natural resources, invesng in renewable and green energy and the longterm aspects of economic growth, when considering the impact of any policy on the environment, future generaons, and social cohesion. We cannot build sustainability in the New Ghana economy without building resilience in finance, supply chains, human capital,andbusinessmodels.

I set out to address five core areas that are crical for us to address and interrogate as we plan to move the Ghanaian economy from the chronic crises periphery of global economic and trade systemstowardsthecoreasfollows:

1. ending the false paradigm - that revenue equalsdevelopmentequalswealth

2. selecng and invesng in new high-value enterprise that bring resilience to the economy

3. building savings to invest in private industry and human capital to create parallel streams of income, resource accumulaon and investments

4 defining how to straddle the economic revoluons in agriculture, industry, services andknowledgeindustries,and

5. the importance of leadership values, atudes and behaviours as the core underpinning for thechange.

CERTAINLY,ALLISNOTLOST.

Wealth creaon as the 4th Horizon of Ghana's Development is a viable, credible economic objecve and I recommend further discourse on this.

Thank you.