2014 1st half in review

Jackie Syvertsen Managing Broker, ABR, CNE, Realtor® 206.790.3600 call/text jackie@windermere.com

2014 First Half In Review

Summer 2014

Music of the Season A Familiar Melody We have been lamenting our lack of inventory for a considerable time (which makes us feel a bit like a broken record) and that same tune was replayed during the first half of this year. January-June 2014 served as a textbook example of the effects of low inventory, with sales down from last year even though there was plenty of demand. This demand, however, pushed the prices of the existing homes up sharply and as the seasonal inventory surge took place in April and May, things got a bit crazy.

Sales, Measure by Measure When we look at “closed sales” we must remember that the bulk of the houses were actually “sold” 30 to 45 days earlier. Over the winter, we saw historically low inventory levels. Then, during the start of the second quarter in April and May, our closings were off 38.2% from the same period last year. The month of May was particularly pathetic, with closings down 58% from 2013, but we weren’t worried because we were selling almost everything that came on the market. This was reflected in June’s 51 closings, which tied our eight-year record for the number of closings in one month. Also, June’s average selling price of $736,611 was up 21% from last June’s closings.

These are exciting and encouraging numbers, but we must be careful in comparing one single month to another.

The Tempo of Inventory The “cumulative days on market” (CDOM) statistic for these past six months illustrates how fast our inventory is turning. The lower the CDOM number, the faster homes are selling. (Another indicator is months of supply, which is calculated by the number of sales during a period of time – typically the past quarter – and the number of homes on the market.) For the first half of this year, the CDOM was 72 days compared to 105 days for the same period of time last year. The CDOM for homes that sold in May was only 41 days, and only 64 for homes that sold in June! There is no clearer measure of how quickly new listings are being snatched up.

The High Notes

Other good news is if you look at the statistics (other side), you see a relatively balanced market, with homes selling in all price brackets. We have already sold four homes in our “upper end” (over $2M), which doubles what we sold at that end of the market in 2013 and 2011, and matches the sales from 2012, when we had a particularly strong first half in the upper end. Sales (as opposed to closings) were strong in June, although they did not reach May’s levels; and so far July is also strong. With all the positive news regarding employment growth in Seattle, bridge issues and traffic, it is easy to be pretty darn positive about our market.

— TRUST & CONFIDENCE SINCE 1978 —

206/790-3600 · JackieSyvertsen.com 840 Madison Avenue North - Bainbridge Island WA 98110

Bainbridge Island Single Family Homes Sold January 11 through June 30 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Change (%) (13‐14)

Average Prices:

$886,707

$769,409

$669,361

$606,755

$672,598

$585,179

$692,738

+18.4%

Median Prices: Number of Sales:

$645,000

$617,000

$549,250

$515,000

$530,000

$495,000

$620,000

+25.3%

$0‐$400,000

8

16

32

38

48

59

24

‐59.3%

$400,000‐$600,000

29

25

46

44

53

73

54

‐26%

$600,000‐$800,000

15

13

33

24

29

40

52

+30%

$800,000‐$1,000,000

12

10

16

5

12

18

16

‐11%

Over $1,000,000

21

19

17

10

29

15

21

+40% ‐18.5%

Total Sales:

85

83

144

121

171

205

167

Inventory (7/1):

335

300

297

309

273

207

182

‐12%

Under Contract:

64

39

41

44

84

78

61

‐21.8%

“Available” Inventory:

291

261

256

265

189

129

121

‐6%

Keeping Condominium Sales in Harmony What about condominiums? The condo marketplace has been tough, especially for homes over $400K, but the first half of this year signaled a distinct recovery, specifically with regard to prices. In 2012, 94% of the 34 condominiums sold came in at $400K or below (meaning only 6% were above $400K). This improved to 67% in 2013 (33% over), but only one unit sold for more than $600K. This year the number of homes priced under $400K was 62% (38% over) with seven over $600K and four over $1M. There were a total of 53 condominiums sold in the first half, up 32.5% from last year. Inventory has also been a big story in condominiums. On July 1st, there were a total of 38 listings, of which 16 were sold (under contract but not closed). To compare, in 2007, at the beginning of July there were 111 listings, and this was before our correction began (which we pin at about September 1, 2007 at 5:00 pm). In the $600K-$800K range, there has only been one listing since the beginning of the year, and it sold immediately. On July 1st, there were no listings in that price range. At mid-June, the number of condominiums under contract was 59% of the 37 listings. At the same time, the percentage of condominiums under contract priced at $400K or less was 63%! Not surprisingly, the average price for the marketplace has jumped 24% over last year ($403,506 in 2014 versus $324,256 in 2013). There is demand!

The Land March Land sales have not been as exciting as homes or condominiums, but they have been steady. Sales are a bit off from last year (23 this year versus 28 last), but still way ahead of the 9 sales in the first half of 2008. Both average and median prices showed gains (average up 10% and median up 7.4%). There was an interesting sale at the end of June: a 4.5-acre lot on the south side of Wyatt Way came on the market for $1,950,000 as a “multifamily” site. It was under contract “pending feasibility” in less than 10 days.

Sweet Sounds of Community The 2014 Bainbridge Rotary Auction grossed over $466,000, a new record high. Event organizers hope it will net in the neighborhood of $400K. This is a colossal effort by Bainbridge Island’s Rotarians and an army of volunteers, over 1,400 this year! Not one penny from the auction goes to the club. The funds are put into a trust account and disbursed in three segments. The first third (~$130,000) goes to “Community Grants” to non-profits with requests of less than $15,000. It might be hard to find an established non-profit on the island that hasn’t been a recipient of one of these grants over the years. The second third goes into the Judge Huney Fund, which contributes to major projects. Our pools, library, parks and currently the Weaver Avenue baseball field and park have been recipients of these funds. The last third is split among local youth, miscellaneous needs and international projects. Youth includes educational and vocational scholarships, leadership camps and other community efforts and the international include water projects in Africa and Central America as well as education projects in both areas. This phenomenal event comes together with the help of generous community volunteers and donors who turn people’s cast-off “stuff” into hundreds of thousands of philanthropic dollars in a span of less than 10 days. A pretty cool feat, and a uniquely Bainbridge tradition.