Evanston, IL Community Profile

Evanston, IL Community Profile

Image: mwera.org

Jackson Morsey UPP 502 – Fall 2012

Table of Contents Location Demographics Population Trends Economic Conditions Current Land Use Sources

1 2 4 8 10 12

McHenry

Lake

Kane DuPage

Cook

Kendall Will Grundy

Location in Cook County

Evanston Streetgrid

0

0

5

0.25 0.5

10

20

1

1.5

30 Miles

±

2 Miles

± 1

Demographics

Evanston is a suburban community

directly north of Chicago, IL along the Lake Michigan shoreline. It has a population of 74,785 as per the 2011 census estimates and a median household income of $68,107.

Evanston is ethnically more diverse compared to other North Shore communities with

• Name: Evanston • Size: 7.78 square miles • Population: 74,785 • Density: 9,575.3 persons per square mile • Location: Cook County, Illinois Ethnicity Composition

Black, Asian, and Hispanic identifying persons at 18.1%, 8.6%, and 9.0% of the population respectively. At 7.78 square miles, Evanston is relatively dense with 9,575.3 persons per square mile.

Evanston is known for its picturesque large historic

homes and quiet lakefront beaches. Despite being composed

mainly of single-family suburban homes, Evanston does have

Male Actual Total population 20,117

Female

Percent Actual Percent 44.6% 25,019 55.4%

No schooling completed Nursery to 4th grade

49 0

0.2% 0.0%

5th to 6th grade

366

7th to 8th grade

363 0

9th grade 10th grade 11th grade 12th grade, no diploma High school graduate, GED, or alternative

[Figure 1]

Ratio male to female 4:5

145 83

0.6% 0.3%

1:3 0:1

1.8%

50

0.2%

22:3

1.8% 0.0%

517 57

2.1% 0.2%

5:7 0:1

373 144

1.9% 0.7%

220 111

0.9% 0.4%

5:3 9:7

118

0.6%

105

0.4%

9:8

2,313

11.5%

2,420

9.7%

1:1

Some college, less than 1 year

405

2.0%

1,026

4.1%

2:5

Some college, 1 or more years, no degree

1,967

9.8%

3,282

13.1%

3:5

Associate's degree

296

1.5%

797

3.2%

3:8

Bachelor's degree Master's degree

5,588

27.8%

7,482

29.9%

3:4

4,994 1,192

24.8% 5.9%

5,770 926

23.1% 3.7%

6:7 9:7

1,949

9.7%

2,028

8.1%

Professional school degree Doctorate degree

2

73.30% 19.70% 7.90% 10.50% 1.70%

Educational attainment of persons 25 years and older by gender, Evanston, IL

White Black Asian Hispanic Other

1:1 [Figure 2]

an active downtown with many residential and commercial office towers. Several smaller lively districts with a mixture of local boutiques and eateries line many of the main arterials. The Rotary International headquarters are located in Evanston, as well as the main Northwestern University campus, both of which make up some of the largest employers.

In Evanston, IL there are 4 males

[Figure 3]

for every 5 females. Educational achievement is about the same at every level between genders, except for notably 5th to 6th grade, where 1.8% of males stop their education compared to 0.2% females that do so. Females also outnumber males in associate’s degrees obtained 3.2% to 1.5%.

Homeownership is less in Evanston, IL when compared to its neighboring communities

of Wilmette, IL and Skokie, IL. Only 55.3% of Evanstonian’s own their home, compared to 87.1% and 72.4% for Wilmette and Skokie respectfully.

Northwestern University on the shore of Lake Michigan

Image: hotelorrington.com

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Population Trends

Allocation takes the current census

Allocation Method Pop. Projection

data for Cook County and Evanston and finds the percentage of population in Cook County that reside in Evanston. This percentage is

Cook County Evanston, IL

Percent of County 2025 Pop. 2030 Pop. 100% 5,835,948 5,990,243 1% 79,434 81,534 74,486

2010 Pop. 5,472,429

[Figure 4]

then applied to the projected population for Cook County to determine an estimate for how much Evanston’s population may increase. Using this projection we can estimate that Evanston’s population will be 79,434 in 2025 and 81,534 in 2030.

Allocation can be useful when you need a quick, rough estimation of potential population

growth and have an already determined projection for the larger region encompassing the area you wish to estimate for. It is not as accurate as a projection could be though because it does not use all available information, the information is at an aggregate level, it relies on others’ projections and it assumes that current conditions will hold into the future.

In the case of Evanston, the allocation method gives an estimate that is close to other

population projection methods, particularly the cohort-component analysis, however this may not be true for other communities.

Trend extrapolation estimates the local population increase based on past trends. For

Evanston I collected past population date, from Census records for the decennial estimate, and from the population estimates for the years from 1990-2010 for the yearly estimate. The date was graphed and an appropriate mathematical form was selected based on forecasting in excel and the R-value of the line of best fit. The formula given by the model was then used to determine an estimate for 2025 and 2030 populations. The decennial projection using a logarithmic form estimated 114,779 people in 2025 and 119,228 people in 2030. The yearly estimate for 1990-2010 projected 74,486 in 2025 and 98,600 in 2030 using a polynomial form to the second degree.

Trend extrapolation can be useful because it is relatively simple and only local data is

required to perform the projections. Disadvantages are that the information is at an aggregate level, it requires a choice of the appropriate mathematical form, assumes that local trends drive population growth, and that local trends will continue.

This method may be useful for projecting a range the population growth will fall in, but

is not as accurate as other methods and results vary depending on which mathematical form

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was selected. For Evanston the trend extrapolation seems to project much larger growth than the other two population projection methods, regardless of which form was chosen.

Evanston 1880 4,400 1890 9,000 1900 19,250 1910 24,978 1920 37,234 1930 63,338 1940 65,389 1950 73,641 1960 79,283 1970 80,113 1980 73,706 1990 73,233 2000 74,239 2010 74,486

Evanston 73,233 73,040 73,515 73,444 72,990 72,362 71,626 71,706 71,960 71,679 74,239 73,575 73,139 74,478 74,894 75,489 75,914 76,562 77,102 77,857 74,486

80,000 78,000

[Figure 5]

y = 21.077x2 -­‐ 249.12x + 73383 R² = 0.69485

76,000 74,000 72,000 70,000 68,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

1990

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Logarithmic Decennial y = 34214ln(x) -­‐ 7828 2010 Pop. 2025 Pop. 2030 Pop. Evanston 74,486 114779 119228

Polynomial Degree=2 Yearly 2 y = 21.077x -­‐ 249.12x + 73383 2010 Pop. 2025 Pop. 2030 Pop. Evanston 74,486 91730 98600

[Figure 6]

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Cohort-component analysis includes birth rates, aging and deaths, and migration in

the population projection. Data is organized by cohorts consisting of age group and sex. To get the projected population current for the existing cohorts, deaths are subtracted from the current population and net migration is added. For the youngest cohort projection, deaths are subtracted from births and net migration is added. Data is combined to generate a projection for 2030, and population pyramids are created for the 2030 projection and 2010 data to compare. For Evanston, the cohort-component analysis estimates 78,985 people once migration is accounted for, with 37,959 males and 41,026 females.

Advantages for cohort-component analysis are that its projections are calculated at a

disaggregate level, and you can examine the components of the change. Disadvantages are that it may not conform to existing projections, it requires a lot of data and assumptions, it is complex to calculate, and assumes a continuation of rates of birth, death, and migration.

In the case of Evanston, the overall population projection seems reasonable, however

when grouped in a population pyramid, the model forecast an immense growth in the 15-19 and 20-24 age ranges, far beyond the current numbers. The model also predicts a large drop in the 30-34 age range, which may not be reasonable to assume, and is probably skewed by the large amount of students from Northwestern University that move out of Evanston after graduating.

2030 Projected Population 2030 Projected Population (without Migration) (with Migration)

TOTAL

All

%

81,334

Male

% Female

39,122

%

42,212

TOTAL

All

%

78,985

Male

% Female

37,959

%

41,026

0-­‐4

4,893

6.02%

2,446

3.01%

2,446

3.01%

0-­‐4

1,589

2.01%

822

1.04%

767

0.97%

5-­‐9

5,545

6.82%

2,772

3.41%

2,773

3.41%

5-­‐9

1,863

2.36%

966

1.22%

897

1.14%

10-­‐14

6,259

7.69%

3,128

3.85%

3,131

3.85%

10-­‐14

5,245

6.64%

2,605

3.30%

2,640

3.34%

15-­‐19

6,482

7.97%

3,235

3.98%

3,246

3.99%

15-­‐19

11,137 14.10%

5,485

6.94%

5,652

7.16%

16,142 20.44%

20-­‐24

4,247

5.22%

2,233

2.75%

2,014

2.48%

20-­‐24

7,951 10.07%

8,191 10.37%

25-­‐29

4,050

4.98%

1,997

2.46%

2,054

2.52%

25-­‐29

2,825

3.58%

1,519

1.92%

1,306

1.65%

30-­‐34

3,632

4.47%

1,803

2.22%

1,829

2.25%

30-­‐34

223

0.28%

144

0.18%

78

0.10%

35-­‐39

6,176

7.59%

3,059

3.76%

3,117

3.83%

35-­‐39

3,691

4.67%

1,852

2.34%

1,839

2.33%

40-­‐44

8,162 10.03%

4,000

4.92%

4,162

5.12%

40-­‐44

6,118

7.75%

2,837

3.59%

3,281

4.15%

45-­‐49

5,655

6.95%

2,748

3.38%

2,907

3.57%

45-­‐49

4,444

5.63%

2,209

2.80%

2,236

2.83%

50-­‐54

4,811

5.92%

2,367

2.91%

2,444

3.01%

50-­‐54

4,212

5.33%

2,253

2.85%

1,959

2.48%

55-­‐59

4,467

5.49%

2,124

2.61%

2,342

2.88%

55-­‐59

4,050

5.13%

2,019

2.56%

2,031

2.57% 2.07%

60-­‐64

4,275

5.26%

1,945

2.39%

2,329

2.86%

60-­‐64

3,078

3.90%

1,444

1.83%

1,633

65-­‐69

3,736

4.59%

1,692

2.08%

2,044

2.51%

65-­‐69

3,295

4.17%

1,475

1.87%

1,819

2.30%

70-­‐74

3,224

3.96%

1,381

1.70%

1,843

2.27%

70-­‐74

3,362

4.26%

1,443

1.83%

1,919

2.43%

75-­‐79

2,579

3.17%

1,047

1.29%

1,532

1.88%

75-­‐79

2,926

3.70%

1,218

1.54%

1,708

2.16%

80-­‐84

1,800

2.21%

694

0.85%

1,106

1.36%

80-­‐84

2,096

2.65%

797

1.01%

1,299

1.64%

85+

1,342

1.65%

449

0.55%

893

1.10%

85+

1,771

2.24%

6

[Figure 6]

2,690

3.41%

919

1.16%

[Figure 7]

[Figure 8]

[Figure 9]

7

Economic Conditions

To obtain the location quotient for the industries in Evanston, Illinois, first one must

obtain the employment figures for Evanston, and the area one wishes to compare it to. For this comparison we use the national U.S. employment data by industry to compare. The percentage of employees in each industry is figured and the percentage for Evanston is divided by the percentage for the U.S. for each industry. This gives us the location quotient, of which a number greater than 1 indicates a stronger industry in Evanston than on the national scale. A number lower than 1 indicates a weaker industry in Evanston than nationally.

Evanston and Comparison Areas Employment by Area Sector, 2007 Estimates Industry Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade

Evanston

Percent

Illinois

Percent

US

Percent

0

0.0%

64,623

1.0%

2,634,756

1.8%

677

2.0%

407,028

6.6%

11,049,193

7.7%

2,670

7.9%

830,516

13.4%

16,093,022

11.3%

468

1.4%

217,995

3.5%

4,512,451

3.2%

2,799

8.3%

683,725

11.1%

16,322,468

11.4%

852

2.5%

383,042

6.2%

7,395,133

5.2%

Information

1,011

3.0%

145,609

2.4%

2,545,556

2.5%

Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing

2,857

8.5%

488,648

7.9%

10,232,761

7.2%

Professional and administrative services

5,409

16.0%

649,948

10.5%

14,649,929

10.3%

Transportation and warehousing, and utilities

Educational services, and health care and social assistance

12,616

37.4%

1,267,793

20.5%

30,157,621

21.2%

Entertainment, accommodation, and food services

2,651

7.9%

528,259

8.5%

12,480,475

8.8%

Other services, except public administration

1,190

3.5%

285,726

4.6%

6,833,711

4.8%

501

1.5%

230,837

3.7%

6,681,042

4.7%

Public administration TOTAL

33701

6,183,749

141,588,118

[Figure 10]

For Evanston, IL the industries of information, finance and insurance, and real estate and

rental and leasing, professional and administrative services, educational services, and health care and social assistance are all stronger than the national average. Educational services, and health care and social assistance in particular are more than 75% more concentrated in Evanston than on a national scale.

Education is a big industry in Evanston, especially with Northwestern University’s main

campus being located here. Opportunities for cluster industries related to education may be a potential market for investment for Evanston’s municipal administration to try to attract. If enough high skill level jobs are created in Evanston, it may be able to retain students from the university as they graduate and benefit from the well-paying jobs and the economic impacts they would bring.

8

Professional and administrative services are already a large industry in Evanston. Many

companies have headquarters located in Evanston, most notably the Rotary International headquarters which employs a significant portion of Evanston residents. This cluster of jobs serves to attract other service industry jobs to Evanston, and for every basic job created in Evanston, 1.88 service sector jobs are created.

Evanston Location Quotients, U.S. as Reference Region, 2007 Estimates Industry Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing, and utilities

Percent

Location Quotient

0

0

0.00

677

0.02

0.26

2670

0.079

0.70

468

0.014

0.44

2799

0.083

0.73

852

0.025

0.48

Information

1011

0.03

1.20

Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing

2857

0.085

1.18

Professional and administrative services

5409

0.16

1.55

12616

0.374

1.76

Educational services, and health care and social assistance Entertainment, accommodation, and food services

2651

0.079

0.90

Other services, except public administration

1190

0.035

0.73

501

0.015

0.32

Public administration TOTAL

Evanston

33701

[Figure 11]

Other Economic Indicators Statistics

• Median family income: $102,706 • Median non-family income: $39,092 • Per capita income: $40,732 • Families below poverty level: 4.5% • Unemployment level: 6.0%

10 Largest Employers • Northwestern University 9,471 • North Shore University Health System 3,727 • Evanston/Skokie School District 65 1,600 • Resurrection Health Care 1,272 • City of Evanston 918 • Presbyterian Homes 602 • Rotary International 525 • Evanston Township High School 520 • Jewel/Osco Food Stores 480 • C.E.Niehoff & Co. 450

9

Current Land Use

Most of the land use in Evanston, IL is single family residential as highlighted in the pale

yellow areas of the map above. Multi family residential and a significant portion of commercial land use is concentrated along the CTA and Metra rail lines. Institutional use makes up a large portion of the middle-North section of the shoreline, where Northwestern University is located.

There is only one significant land parcel left vacant according to the land use map and this

is located in the central commercial district. No open space is located near this area, and a park or central plaza may be a good use of the land. However, since this parcel is the last undeveloped land in Evanston, a more valuable use is likely to develop here.

The large parcel of land marked other on the southeastern corner of the map is a

cemetery. This parcel is prime lakefront territory and may not be the best and highest use of the land. However, residents may object to the moving of such a cultural site, and the stigma that surrounds it.

There is only one area in brown that is currently being used as industrial. If job demand is

adequate, the city may consider attracting new industry to the parcels labeled other just south of this industrial area. However, this area is surrounded by single family and multi family residential uses, and may be protested for environmental reasons.

Downtown Evanston is already a large employment center, and has potential to be

expanded as areas around it are redeveloped. This would increase opportunities in the area, and allow for a shorter commute for residents who may currently be employed in downtown Chicago.

Transportation connections to this area are well served by the CTA train lines that run through the middle of the downtown area, as well as Metra lines that are just to the northwest of the downtown area.

Northwestern University • Largest single landowner in Evanston, 240 acres • 9,471 employees • 3,108 full-time faculty • 8,425 undergraduates • 10,759 postgraduates

10

Land Use, 2005

[Figure 12]

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Sources [Figure 1] American FactFinder Table DP05 ACS Demographic and Housing Estimates 2011 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates [Figure 2] American FactFinder Table DP02 Selected Social Characteristics 2011 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates [Figure 3] American FactFinder Table DP04 Selected Housing Characteristics 2011 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates [Figure 4] Cook County Population Projections, 2010 United States Census [Figures 5] Decennial United States Census [Figure 6] Yearly Estimate United States Census [Figures 6, 7, 8, 9] American FactFinder Table S0101 Age and Sex 2011 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates [Figures 10, 11] American FactFinder Table DP03 Selected Economic Characteristics 2007 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates [Figure 12] GIS data from Blackboard

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