PREPARING FOR DISASTER: ARE PREPPERS OVERSTATING THE RISK OF CATASTROPHE? Aug. 2, 2013

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Preparing forDisaster A re "preppers" overstating tbe rise 01 catastropbe? eople getting ready for catadysmic disastersby stock­ piling food , water and, in many cases, guns are easy to dismiss as alarmisi:s. But a stream of natural and human-created disasters has made so-called "preppers" seem less eccentric and more sensible. Even the Red Cross and government agencies recornmend assembling ernergency supplies and planning for disaster. Sorne preppers go several steps beyond -

building rural re treats, for example, where they would hole up

ir society fell apart. To the more alarmed segrnent of the movement, a collapse of moderncivilization isnot so much a possibility as a probability. Overall, though, even the "prepper' label signifies a more mainstream, less politicized approach than the "survivalísm"

Floodwaters cover New Orleans, La., on Sept. 6, 2005, eight days alter Hurricane Ketrine de vastated the region. A serie s 01 natura! end human-caused disasters in recent years, along with growing concern about the Iragility 01 the power grid, has prompted so ­ called "preppers " to prepare ior luture catas trophes .

of the late 20th century. Meanwhile, politicians and scientists share sorne preppers' fears aboutthe vulnerability of the natíonal power gríd and other vital services.

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1HIs REPORf

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ca Researcher .• Aug. 2, 20 13

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• -www.cqreseerchet.com . Volume23, Number 28 • Pages 669-692

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RECIPIENT O F SO CIETY OF PROFESSIONAI. J OlJRj\fALISTS A\,\iARD FO R EXCELI.ENCE • AMERJCAN BAR ASSOCIATION SII.VER G AVEI. AWARD .

THE ISSUES

671

BACKGROUNU

CURRENT SITUATION

678 679 684

AT ISSUE

685

OUIlOOK

686

BrnuoGRAPHY

690

THE NEXf S1.'EP

691

CHRONOLOGY

RREPARING FüR DISASTER

•• CQ RESEARCHER

Cll PRESS

1lIE ISSUES

671

• Are prepper concems abou t the fragility of social, political and econ ornic sys te ms justified?

• Are gove mrnents doing enough to prepare for major thr eats to utilities and other infrastructure?

• Are cities safer than rural areas in a d isaster?

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clear war, few Americans built shelte rs in th e 196os.

680 682 683

Coming Apocalypse?

672

The Y2K disaster that never caine undercut sur­ vivalists' w arnings.

Preppers A seri es o f disasters early in the 21st cen tury in­ spired n ew con cems ab ou t. preparedness.

CURRENf SrnJATION

684 684

673 676

Fears of a mega-catastrophe began growing in the 1970s.

Disaster Predictions

Climate Prepping Loss of power stemming from clima te cha nge is a major focus o f preppers.

Zombie Threat The m ess age from Brad Pitt's 'W orld War Z" is be prepared for anything.

Continuing Phenomenon Apocalyptic expectatíons are dee ply embedd ed in Westem culture.

MANAGING EDITOR:

679 680

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Americans Fear Nature . More Than Terrorists Seventy percent fear a major quake or hurricane.

Emergency Supplies

Households Should Have

Disaster kits should include

water and a radio.

AsSISTANT MANAGING EDlTORS:

Mormons Plan

for Emergencies

"Times are always uncertaín."

At Issue:

15 a rural area me best place

for surviving a clisaster?

Lyn Garrily,

Iyn.garriry@sagepub.com, Kathy Koch,

kathy.koch@sagepub.com

SENIOR CONfRlBlJTlNG EDITOR:

Thomas J. CoJin

tom.colínssagepub.corn

STAFF WRITER:

Marca Clemmín

Sarah Glazer,

Peter Katel, Reecf Karaím, Roben Kiener,

CoNfRlBUflNG WRITERS:

Barbara Mantel, Tom Price, [enniíer Weeks

SENIOR PROJECf EDITOR: FACf CHECKER:

INTERN:

A Prepper Dilemma:

To Share or Shoot

"Dump me commando, militia

attítude," advíses one.

Chronology

Key events since 1951.

Thomas J. Bülinerí

ljb®sagepub.com

SIDE&RS AND GRAPIDCS

BACKGROUND Bomb Shelters D espite concem about nu­

Aug. 2, 2013

Volume 23, Nurnber 28

OUI'LOOK

Olu B. Davis

MicheJJe Harrís

Alisha Forbes

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For More Information Organizations to contact.

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Bibliography Selected sources used.

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The Next Step Adclitional anides.

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Preparing far Disaster

BY PETER KATEL

lliE ISSUES

mands. "Youcan't just put your head in the sand anymore." 2 As federal officials and politicians urge more spend­ ing to strengthen the power grid, a seemingly endless number of prepper blogs and websites offer detailed advice and recornmendations - as well as onIine shopping op­ tions - on bulk food pur­ chases, emergency water sup­ plies, first-aid materials, generators and gear of all kinds. (Sorne preppers look for guidance on supplies to followers of the Mormon faith, who have long been re­ quired to store food in case of hard times. 3 (See sidebar;

Ukinds of trouble can land on your doorstep, even in the generaUy peaceful high desert of cen­ tral New Mexico. "I'd rather know that I'm ready," a 40­ something man says on a visit to Albuquerque. "1 keep all my vehicles with the gas tanks at least three-quarters full, and I've got plenty of food and water."

Catastrophes of recent years have gíven survíval traín­ oc:

ing new relevance, says the ~ .,man, who got his first pre­ ~ ~ paredness schooling in Bol' E Scout troops led by World B p.680.)

War II veterans. 'The eco­ ~ Any number of Americans nomic disaster, bíg storrns ­ Q: mal' keep extra food, barter­ LL the idea is to absorb the blow « ies or other supplies on hand Actor Brad Pitt promotes his epocelyptic film "World and try to recover," he says. as a matter of course, with­ War Z" at the Moscow Film Festival on June 20, 2013.

"By being self-reliant, you out considering themselves The film has tapped into a deep vein of anxiety about can get to the point where preppers. How many people natural disasters brought on by elimate change, such as you're resilient." embrace the prepper label is bigger forest fires in the West and strains on the electric People who share that out­ power supply caused by extreme tempera tures. a matrer of speculation. Chad look and the act ívities that Huddleston, an anthropology go with ít.have a name - "preppers:" Many preppers consider the show instructor at Southern Illinois Univer­ Like the New Mexico man, many a caricature, but the program - like sity at Edwardsville who hasembed­ prize discretion, worrying that going "World War Z," a HoUywood black­ ded hirnself in a cornmunity of about public will make them vulnerable if buster starríng Brad Pitt - has tapped 200 St. Louis-based preppers (50 of disasterstrikes to those who haven't into a deep vein of anxiety. (See "Cur­ them active), says the group's onIine prepared - afear that dates back rent Situation," p. 684.) Hurricanes forum has 40,000 participants, con­ to the nuclear-fallout shelter days of and tornadoes aside, experts sal' cli­ tributing to more than 1 million dis­ mate change is bringing more and big­ the 1960s. (See sidebar; p. 676.) cussion threads. Expos last year to Reputation ís a consideration as well. ger forest fues in the West, sea-Ievel demonstrate and seUpreparedness sup­ rises that threaten coastal cities and plies drew a reported 40,000 people.

The prepper label has been circulat­ ing foronIy a few years, bur it's aI­ extreme temperatures that strain the And Self Reliance Broadcasting, an on­ ready acquired. an eccentric tinge, electric power supply, which many line radio network run by expo or­ thanks tq "Doomsday Preppers," a Na­ preppers consider fragíle. ganizer Red Shed Media Group, reg­ tional Geographíc TV documentary se­ Preppers arenot alone in that as­ istered more than 2 million podcast downloads in 2012. 4 ries that facuses on such people as sessment. "We don't have a robust en­ the builder ofa $2 million, heavíly ergy system,"jonathan Pershing, deputy Apacalyptic expectations play sorne fortified desert retreat in Texas or a assistant energy secretary for climate role in driving the prepper wave. TEüT­ family learning to eat bugs so they change policy and technology, said in WAWKl (The End of theWorld As We can adapt ro their image of life in july, announcing a report that puts the Know Ir) in prepper jargon - is a Costa Rica, theír planned haven from price in the .bíllíons for short-term im­ concept carried over from the sur­ U.S. social and economic collapse. 1 provements that clirnate change de- vívalíst movement of the 1980s and

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Americans Fear Nature More Than Terrorists Nearly ttoo-tbirds ofAmericans tbinh a major eartbquake 01' burri­ cane migbt occur during tbe next 25 years, according to a survey

by Kelton Researcbfor tbe National Geograpbic Cbannel. About balf foresee a terrorist attack 01' financial collapse. Only 14 percent are worried about nuclearfallout - rougbly tbe same proportion wbo .don't believe any major catastropbe is around tbe corner.

Percentage ofAmericans Who Fear the Following

Over the Next 25 Years:

Significant earthquake :::::::::::::~64 % Significant hurricane 63 % Terrorist attack • • • • • • • • • • • • 55° .. Financial collapse • • • • • • •III!II• • • 51 % Significant blackout ::::::~:t 3 7%

Pandemic, super-virus' 29%

Nuclear fallout

None of these

Source: "Doomsday Preppers Surtey.ífanuary 2012, Nattonal Geograpbic Cbatinel.

http://images.nationalgeographic.com/upJ!media-liue/file/Doo111sda)'_Preppers_ SurlJf!.y_-_Topline_ResultspdJ

'90s. Nevertheless, preppers say they steer c1earof even the word "survivalist" becauseit came to be associated with far-right extrernísts such as Timothy McVeigh, who blew up a federal .buíld­ ing in Oklahoma City in 1995, killing 168 people, inclucling 19 chíldren . 5 (See "Backgrou nd,"p . 678.) "Somebody

coined the term prepper and felt it better represemed thern," says Lee'Ann Imel-Hartford of Albuquerque, a prep­ per who wrote a doctoral dissertatíon on the prepper movement.

Some commentators argue that "prep­ per" is nothing but a new tag for well­ wom worldvíews. "Por generations we have shared our America wíth Amerí­ cans who fear change, fear difference; fear you and me, fear everything falling apart," wrote liberal historian Rick Perl­ steín in Tbe Nation. "So much so that they organíze their lives and politics around staving off thefear." 6 Nor all preppers accept the notion of chaos around the comer. But alarm

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about social and political breakdown is not hard ro find in the prepper­ sphere. "1 think we are closer to eco­ nomic collapse than anything else," says Don StapIes,who ILlOS rwo Trul'rep disaster recovery-supply stores in the Atlanta area and expects a breakdown of law and order. "The economy is not any better now than in 2008; in sorne ways it's worse - a lot less stable, less diversified, a lot of people are depen­ dent on government, whích tries to get people to be dependent in order to maintain power."

Both preppers who foresee earth­ shaking dísruptíon and others focused on natural disasters doubt that govern­ rnent will be able ro offermuch help, at least in the ímmedíate aftennath of a catastrophe, For Imel-Hartford and others, Hurricane Katrina in 2005 played the biggest role in encouraging disas­ ter readiness. Katrina crippled New Or­ leans, and its consequences are felt to this day. "The govemment failed, FEMA

[the Federal Emergency Management Agency] failed, and failed miserably," Imel-Hartford says. .

Experts who don 't buy wholesale ínto preppers' doom-and-gloom pre­ dictions say nonetheless that theirern­ phasís on self-reliance can be useful.

"Are you situationally aware?" asks Irwin Redlener, director of the Na­ tional Center for Disaster Prepared­ ness at Columbia University in New York. "If you live in Tornado Alley and don't have a storm cellar, you are not there yet. Or íf you're living on the coast in Louisiana or Brook1yn and may have to evacuate - do you keep the gas tank full? Do you have three days' of supplies? Know where your valuables are?"

On a prepareclnessspectrum, Redlen­ er recommends a spot somewhere be­ tween the extremes - ranging from "the survivalists,anned,olf the grid and don't comelooking for them" to "mind­ less complacency, where the prevaíl­ ing thought ís. '\\lha tever. It's safe, and there's nothíng I can do anyway, I'll deal w íth it when it happens."

Likeother dísaster-preparedness pro­ fessionals, Redlener, a pediatrician, wor­ ries about the reliability of the power grid - especially after seeing parts of New York City go dark last year after Hurricane Sandy. 7 Alarm bells about the power supply also are ringing at the híghest levels of government.

Former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta wamed last year before retír­ ing that the United States faces the danger of a "cyber-Pearl Harbar" ­ hostile penetratíons of computer net­ works that control essent íalservíces in­ c1uding the electrical supply through­ out the country" Less well known -to the general publie is the danger of a power shut­ down caused by electromagnetic pulses (EMP) frorri nuclear weapons deto­ nated .in the atmosphere, or by solar storms resulting in coronal mass ejec­ tion, bursts of energy .from the sun that can damage electrícal facilities: 9

"Your cal' will no longer work, your cell phone won't work, the power will be out everywhere, planes will have fallen from the sky," one blogger wrore, in a rypícal posting. "Despíte our besr efforts to prepare for such an event there ís a good chance that many will not survive." 10 The forec ast may sound over­ wrought, Liberal commentators have argued that conservatives - until re­ cently the loudesr voices on the EMP . issue - exaggerate the potential ef­ fects of an EMP attack by a foreign powe r targeting the United States, be­ cause it would prompt massive U.S, retallatíon. "True, an EMP that affect­ ed even a single state would be, no doubt , traumatic and d ísruptive, bur ir would also be recoverable," Sharon Weinberger, a journalist specializing in military rechnology, wrote in 2010, 11 Nevertheless, the destructive poten­ tíal of solar storms is beyond dispure.

In 1859 the "Carrington event'' (after as­ tronomer Richard Carrington) damaged Ameríca's recently built relegraph net­ work. A 1989 solar storm shur down power for nine hours in most of the Canadian provínce of Quebec and part of the northeasrem United States. Elec­ trie .power, spacecraft, aircraft and in­ dustries reliant on GPS positioning are vulnerable to the effects of severe ge­ omagnetic storms, concluded a report issued by a natíonal-securíty and rech­ nology firm for the Homeland Securíty Department. "A power blackout lasting longer than 72 hours could create long­ terrn implications for interdependenr public and prívate infrastructures." 12 Last May, Democratic Reps. Edward J. Markey of Massachusetts and Henry A: Waxman of California called fo r ere­ ation of á federal body empowered to ensure "that the grid is prorecred frorn potentíal cyber-attacks and geomagnet­ íc storms." A 2010 bill co-sponsored by Markey (elected to the Senare thís year) would .have established the proposed agency, but it died in the Senate. No new bill has been introduced. 13

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Emergency Supplies Households Should Have Tbe Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) recommends that A mericans have the follounng baste supplies on hand in case 01 burricanes, torriadoes, forestfires, jloods or otber emergencies: • A rhree-day supplyof nonperishable food and w ater, including a gallon of warer per day per person • Barrery-powered or h and-crank radio and NOAA weather radio

with rone alert a nd extra barreries for borh

• Flashlighr, extra barreries • Firsr-aid kit • Whisrle ro signal for help • Dusr masks ro help filter conraminared air and plasric sheetíng

and duct tape ro shelter in-place

• Moist towelettes, garbage bags and plastic ties for personal

sanitation

• Wrenchor pliers ro turn off utilities • Manual can opener • Local maps • Cell phone with charge r, inverter or solar cha rger

Other cruc ial supplies might include: • • • • • • • • • • • •

Prescription medications and glasses Infant formula and diapers Food and extra water for pets Cash or traveler's checks and change Important documents Emergency reference material such as a first-a íd book Sleeping bag or warrn blanket for each person Complete change of clorhing Household bleach and medicine dropper for purifying water Fire extinguisher Marches in a waterproof container Personal hygiene items

Source: FEMA, u'u'W.J·eady,gozy'basic-disaster-supplies-kit

As disaster specíalísts and social­ policy experts examine the prepper movemerit, here are sorne of the ques­ tions being asked: Are prepper concerns about the fragility of social, political and economic systems justified?

At one e n d o f rh e di s aster-

preparedness continuum are people trying to get ready for emergencies thar may already be affectíng nearby residents. In parts of the West, local news stations advise those living in areas that could be hit by forest ñres to assemble important papers, photos, a battery-op erated radio and other items in case of an evacuation order.

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PREPARING FOR DrSASTER

In me Washington, D.C., suburbs were preppers," says Staples, whose of Virginia and Maryland , which have TruPrep supply outIets are lacated in me a history of long-Iasting power out­ Atlanta suburbs of Marietta and Roswell.

"Even if you are not super-wealthy, if ages, owning a generator is consid­ ered prudent. 14 you have food stored you can usually At me other end of me speetrum are keep up your house payment" people who, in addition to getting ready But Staples also sees far worse on for natural disasters, foresee total social thehorizon than persistent - but not o and economic collapse - TEü1WAWKI Depression-Ievel - unemployment.

'- just around me comer.

"You have 48, 49 percent of me popu­ The aftermaths of recent dísasters latíon on sorne form of government of all kinds have prov íded what seems assístarice," he says. * "What is going to happen when me to sorne a foretaste of such apoca­ government runs out of money? It's Iyptic scenarios.

In New York City, for instance, by me going to happen eventually. What do time Hurrícane Sandy flooded out entire you thínk those people are goíng ro sections of me metropolitan area, resí­ do when me government stops pro­ dents had seen theír city hit by me na­ viding? That's when civil unrest starts ."

In light of me fact that me govem­ tion's worst terroríst attack. They also had gotten a dose-up víew of me effecrs of ment wíthstood me bankíng crisis of me 2008financial crisis, which rocked me .2008, when fears of financiaI system city's major industry Reeling from mase collapse reached me highest levels of events, AJan Feuer, a New York Times re­ government and Wall Street, those fears porter who caIls himselfa prepper, wrote: strike others as overstated. 18 "1 began to forro a picture of me world .Fernando Aguirre, an Argentine blog­ as a system of unsustairIable systems, a gel',author and consultant, lived through rícketyRube Goldberg machine in which ·a version of what preppers like Sta­ me loss of any one piece - cheap oil, pIes predict, when me Argentine fi­ nancíal system coJlapsed in 2001. say - could derail me whole contrap­ tion, from truck transportation to me dis­ Sorne turned to barrer, and a wave of tribution of food." 15 armed robbery, kidnapping and home Belief that catastrophíc collapse trig­ invasion persisted even after me cri­ gered by financial and economic break­ sis peaked. "1 think Argentina is a good down ís ímminent runs through me on­ example of me worst-case scenarío, line prepper uníverse, Blogs and websites when things go to hell," hesays. "We went through fíve presídents leaving by and for preppers are fílled w íth ad­ vice and commentary, induding a list of in a week, banks closing their doors. goods that would be valuable for bar­ 1 don't think that's likely to happen in tering (among thern, salt, toilet papel', me United States." 19 Aguirre now lives in Ireland, which antibiotics and powdered mílk), a warn­ suffered its own fínancíal and eco­ ing that "all of me money in your bank account could disappear in a single mo­ nomic crash at about me same time ment": andadvíce- onhow ro prepare as me United States did, wíth pro­ for "me comíng economic collapse." 16 found effects still being felt, 20 Butdif­ The extremes meet on me issueof ferent countries respond differently to major crises. "Security isn't much of a job srabiJity. Wim unemployment re­ maining relatívely high - 7.6 percent problem here," Aguírre says. "When according to me most recent federal we got here, 1 would ask people, 'Do jobs report- concem about job loss you have robberies ínvolvíng several clearly ís realistic. 17 "I've got friends who got through • More than half of those beneficiarles receive bouts of unernployment because they assistance fromSocial Security, Medicare or both.

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armed attackers?' People look at me like, 'Are you insane?' " Still, me financial crash of 2008, continuing unemployment and other events of me new century have left lasting impressions on other preppers.

"The world ís more unstable," says me 4D-someming prepper in New Mexi­ co. "There ís a lot of political unrest and social upheaval g1obally. People are looking at mis and asking , 'What if toral war in me Middle East breaks out? What happens tooil? What if me Euro implodes?' " He Iikens present conditions to one of me stages of me decline of me Roman Empire . "The flrst stage: money for everyone, me second, me start of me collapse - we're handing out bread and geníng people into me Coliseum .

I believe we're at me end of me sec­ ond stage."

But Arthur Bradley, an eleetrical en­ gíneer at NASA and preparedness au­ mor and consulrant, sees natural dis­ aster and dísease outbreaks as more Iikely dangers than collapseof me economic andsocial order. "I'm not one that goes ro bed every night think­ ing me world is go íng ro faJl apart," he says. FoJlowing me fínanc íal crisis of 2008, he says, "Ir looks Iike we picked back up.'

Bradley concedes that the crisis "could have gone me other way" into worldwíde financial collapse. But he's more worried .about possibiJities such as a global pandemic. "1 see things Iike a new SARS-like virus, and 1 think that it wouldn't take much," he says.

"If mere was a Iittle mutation ir! that virus, by the time anyone could make a vaccine, potentially a quarter of me planet could be affected. To me, that is a realistic world-changing event.'

Are governments doing enougb lo prepare for major tbreats ..to utüi­ ties and otber infrastrueture?

Hurrícanes Karrina and Sandy, major forest tires in the West and floods in me Midwest show me power of natural

Critics question whether eleetric ut íl­ dísasters to destroy and dísrupt, Climate The National Rural Electric Cooper­ change is speeding up and intensify­ ities are up to the challenge posed by atíve Assocíatíon, 'a trade group, called íng sorne categories of disaster, even such threats.Reps. Markey (now a sen­ the survey "alarmíst" Líkewise, the Amer­ as it puts new stress on the natíonal ator) and Waxman said last May that ican Public Power Association, which energy system, ínclucling oil and gas only one-third of investor-owned utíl­ represents more than 2,000 comrnunity­ exploration and delivery as well as the ities reported taking measures to pro­ owned electric utilítíes, noted that the power grid, the Department of Energy tect against solar dísruptions, accord­ survey covered only a small number of reported in july, ' 21 But not all cata­ ing to a congress íonal staff survey of , the countrys 3,600 electríc companies, strophes have natural causes.

Ex-Secretary of Defense Panettas warn­ ing about the possibílíty of catastrophíc cyber-attacks on essentíal services was reinforced in July, when7be Neto York Times reported on a boorníng interna­ tional business of díscoveríng - and selling at híghpríces - ínformatíon on software flaws through which hackers can . pe netrate computer networks, in­ duding those thar mn power plants and other industrial operations. Buyers in­ elude foreign governments hostile 01' potentially .hostíle tothe United States, as well as US. governrnent agencies and prívate companies. 22 ' Even before that report, johnArquíl­ la, a prcfessor of defense arialysis at the US . Naval Postgraduate School in . .

Monterey, Calif., had written thar crim­ inals and enemies are quíetly and con­ stantly penetrating supposedly secure ' A firefíghter helps a woman tosafety in Little Ferry; N.I, on Oct. 30, 2012, parts of the global network, íncludíng during f100ding resulting from Hurricane Sandy. Scientists say sea-Ievel rises caused by climate chenqecould threaten coastal areas in the United Sta tes and those that operate vital services. These around the world. In nearbyNew York City, the storm tlooded en tire sections.oi penetrations "pass largely beneath our the metropoliten area. Outgoihg Mayor Michael Bloomberg has proposed a levels 'of awareness," he wrote. 23 $19.5 billion package to include floodwall and levee construction as we/l as Nevertheless, a series of cyber-attacks f100d protection for hospitels and apartment buildings. last year on the Saudi Arabian oil in­ dustry and on sorne American banks atrracted considerable ' attentíon. The more than 100 electric utilities. More And the survey demanded information attacks wiped out data onthousands than a dozenutilities reported a high that theíndustry is required by law to of Saudi computers and blocked sorne level of attempted cyber-attacks, the SUf­ keep secret for securíty reasons, according bank customers' online account ac­ vey also found. 25 to the power association's vice president Markey and Waxman concluded that for government relatíons. 26 cess. ' American officials blarned Iran Preppers and nonpreppers alike have for the attacks, acknowledging that Iran regulatory authoríty over utiJities had apparently was responcling to report­ not kept up with threats to the power been concemed for some time about ed US.-Israeli sabotage vía cornputer supply, asserting that evidence showed electrical-gríd vulnerabiliry. "TI1e fed­ virusof vital machinery at an Iranian that utílíties take securíty measures only eral government does' a prerry good nuclear development facíliry, 24 when ordered to do so by regulatory job of responding to ernergencies," says Cyber-attacks aside, US. infrastructure agencies. Most -u tílí tíes that answered eleetrical engíneer and prepper author also .ís potentially vulnerable to nuclear a survey question about securíty re­ Bradley. "But the electrical ínfrastruc­ electromagnetíc pulse (EMP) detonations spondedthat they hadn't followed reg­ ture issue ís such a large-scope prob­ and to solar fiares, known technícally ulators' recornmendatíons, according to lem that nobady has stepped up to me survey reporto as geomagnetíc storms, make it robust."

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APrepper Dilemma: To Share or Shoot "Dump tbe commando, militia attitude," adoises Orle. he topic is inescapable among preppers. When disaster stríkes, what to do about the fact that sorne people have prepared and most have not? "\Vhen 1 gíve serninars," says prepper author and blogger Arthur Bradley , "there will always be a guy wíth an army jack­ et who says, 'My neíghbors are not going to have supplies, so they're going to come for mine."

Bradley, alife mernber of the National Rifle Association, dis­ courages this line of thinking, favoring a cooperative approach based on sharing assets. "My neighbor is an emergency room doctor," he says. "We have a stockpile of sorne goods, and he has skills."

Whether Bradley's approach is the majority or minority view is impossible to sayo""'hat is clear is that the prepper comer of the Web is filled with discussions and blog posts that center on armed response to peopl e hoping to grab preppers' supplies.

"Survival and preparedness planning does not include just storing food, supplies, guns and medicine, or creating tactical defense plans for your home and property," a blogger named Mac SJavo wrote in a post that represents a heavily represent­ ed strain of prepper thinking. "There w íll be organized gangs whose sole method of acquiring necessities will be through looting. This is why it is important to prepare ríght now, . ..

Be at horne finalizing your defense preparations - doing things like setting up barbed w íre, firing lines, booby traps and ca­ ordinating with neighbors - because if the disaster event lasts

T

Given the ·national dependence on electricity, the system 's weaknesses pose ' a majordanger, Bradley says. "If you lose electric íty, within a few days you lose air traffic, medical care [and] the fuel delivery trucks wouldn't be able to pump fuel," he says . "Then telecom­ munications fails, and very soon you're back to everybody being on their own."

Electricity industry representatives say they are doing everything possible to ensure speedy recovery fram attacks on the grid. But under questioning at a Senate hearingin 2012, Gerry Cauley, president and CEO 01' the North Amer­ ican ElectricReliability Corp., a non­ profit that trains and certífies personnel 01' large power .prod ucers, and devel­ ops índustry standards, acknowledged that the assocíation - while warning about the dangers 01' electr ómagnetic-

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for more than a week without outside resupply, gangs and looters are going to be headed your way next." 1 The issue of the unprepared versus the prepared has cropped up before . During the 1960s' nuclear fallout shelter craze ­ marked by more discussion than actual shelter building - one of the major topícs of díscussion was what to do about neigh­ bors who hadn't built their own shelters.

In 1961, Time summed up one side of the debate, wrltes historian Kenneth D. Rose, with an anide headlined "Gun TI1Y Neighbor." TI1e piece quoted a suburban Chicago resident de­ claring: "When 1 get my shelter finíshed, I'm going to mount a machine gun ar the hatch to keep the neíghbors out if the bomb falls. . . . If the stupid American public will not do what they have to do to save thernselves, l 'm not going to run the risk of not being able to use the shelter l 've taken the trouble to provide to save my own family." 2 Taking up the other side o f the argument were religious leaders, induding evangelist Billy Graham . "1 feel a primary responsibility for my family," he said, "but 1 don't believe 1 myself could stay in a shelter while my neighbor had no pro­ tection." 3 Even President john F. Kennedy, who had promoted fallout shelter building, felt obliged to weigh in . He urged Arnericans to "concentrare more on keeping enemy bombers and m íssiles away from our shores, and concentrate less on keeping neigh­ bors away frorn our shelters," ~

pulse damage - d ídn't require mem­ bers [o take protective action. "It gave actions that could be taken if there was an in1pactful storrn that was go íng [O come toward the Earth,' Cauley said.

"But ír was not issued as a required ser 01' actíons.' 27 .

Cauleyspoke in similar terms about the threat posed by cyber-attackers. "Our strategy 1'01' security recognízes that a perfect defense agaínst the bad guys is not achievable nor necessarily affordable," he said . The alternatíve. : he said, is to keep securíty standardshigh. 28 Concems about the adequacy 01' power-supply protections are voiced by the entíre spectrurn 01' disaster ex­ perts. "We have not taken sufficient steps, in my opinion. . to make our eleetrical gríd more EMP-resistant" says Redlener 01' the National Center 1'01'

Disaster Preparedness. "It's costly. vbut we could proteet a lot 01' our elec­ tricity generatíon fram natural EMP super-charges fromsolar storrns, 01' de­ liberare acts 01' terrorism.' .

"Somebody has to say that we want [O spend money to do that," Redlener says . With the economy struggling, he says , no one in authority has rnade tha t decision.

Are cities safer tban rural areas in a disaster?

Survivalism, the nearest ancestor 01' the prepper movernenr, embraced the idea that rural areas offer the best chance 1'01' holding out when catastrophe strikes.

For sorne survívalists, the idea of re­ treating ro the backwoods grew out 01' a strong identification wíth early ..xmen­ can settlers and pioneers.

As the president's partícípation shows, the 1960s debate took place on a national level. Today's discussions of protecting self, family and supplies in an emergency go on among preppers themselves. And the moral issue that was the center of dis­ cússion 50 years ago doesn't crop up now, beca use the wíde­ Iy shared assumption is that whoever is coming for one's sup­ plies is not friendly.

Among an intluential group of St. Louís-based preppers, sorne - but not all - members forecast the emergence of "roving bands of bad guys trying to get your stuff," says Chad Huddleston, an anthropology instructor at Southern IlIinois Uní­ versiry at Edwardsville. He adds that sorne of the preppers "in sorne way hope that the marauder discourse proves true, so they can use their guns," One prepper with personal experience in living through a socioeconomic crisis agrees that guns can be valuable. Fer­ nando Aguírre, an Argentine author and blogger (in English) on the prepper círcuit, says that crime increased after hís country's economy imploded in 2001-2002. "If things start getting bad, you're really going to be seeing a spike in crime and a spike in unnecessary and unreasonable violence in crime, beca use of the social hatred between those that have and those that don't have," he says from his new home in Ireland.

Aguírre says pistols saved his life more than once. "1 never kílled anyone," he says, "most of all beca use I was in a good

"From about the 1600s to the late 1800s - there were lots of people who had to survive by their own wíts and guile in the wilderness," one sur­ vivalist told Philip Larny, a professor of socíology, anthropology and music at vermont'sCastlesron State College.

"Davy Crockett was a survivalist. . . .

There were thousands of people liv­ ing that way in the American wilder­ ness.' 29 Beyond looking ro hístory for role models , survivalists tended lo see post­ disaster cities as dangerzones, filIed with hungry and hostile crowds. This attitude persists among many preppers. "If the power has already been down for days with no near-term hope of restoratíon, there will be lots of starving, thirsry and desperate people, sorne of whom will have turned to violent measures

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constant state of awareness. I would draw my gun [and] keep the person ar gunpoint; they would become very, very rea­ sonable:' Nevertheless, the conditions thar Aguírre and his family sur­ víved were a deterioration in law and order, not the complete collapse that sorne preppers say is around the comer.

Among those who do share the so-called 1'EOT\XTA\X1KI (The End Of The World As We Know Ir) vlsíon, sorne note that hopes of resisting looters síngle-handedly are futile. "You will . not be able to fight off the hordes of marauders who want your weapons and food stashes," a blogger wrote last year, "Dump the commando, militia attitudc and rnove to an agrar­ ian community. Being armed against an occasional violent crim­ inal is great, but you will not fight off the entire city of hun­ gry people in Detroít." 5

- Peter Katel I Mac Slavo, "A Guide lo Looting When SHTF (And Your Couruer-Suatcgies)," SHTfplan.com , Ap.iI21 , 2011, www.shlfplan.com/emergency-preparednessla­ guíde-to-looting-when-the-shtf-and-your-counter-strategies, 04212011.

2 Quoted in One Nation Underground: Tbe FallO/II Sbelter in American Culture (2001) , (Kíndl e edítíon, no page numbers noted). :l Quoted in ibid.

1 Quoted in tbid. ; "Preppers - Wald1 This Video ," Bark! Foru m, Dec. 1, 2012. http://forum.bark forum.com/t642-preppers-walch-this-video.

to re-supply," wrote Ken jorgustín, who runs the "Modern Survival Blog " site and an associated online store . He pre­ dícted that have-nots along with hard­ ened . crímínals would "ser up road blocks and ambushes . . . to loot you of your supplíes,' 30 An anonymous contributor to Sur­ vivalBlog, a popular site among prep­ pers, wrote similarly that in escaping his home círy, Dallas-Fort Worth, he would avoid major highways because "those are the routes that will either fall under tightgovernmenr control, or more likely, will have 'survíval of the fíttest areas' where .those who are not prepared prey on those who have any­ thíng of worth.' 31 StapIes of TruPrep says he views h ís home in the Atlanta metro area as strictly a place for short-term emer-

gencies. "That is not a good place ro be ·long terrn," he says. "1 have a place out in the míddle of nowhere. If you're in an isolated area, and there are a bunch of you and you can defend where you are and have a back-up plan for gertíng out, 1 would say that is much safer than being in a círy.'

In cíties, "Wha t is going to happen when socíery starts collapsing, when govem.ment starts losing control?" Staples asks. "You're going to have gangs start ro take over."

He cites a 1992 riot in central Los Angeles following the acquittal of whíte police officers accused of beatíng black motorist Rodney Kíng. Howev­ el', he says he is not implying a race connection. "It's not going to be racial ," he says, "it's going to be haves versus have-nots.'

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PREPARING FOR DrSASTER

Blogger and author Aguirre, though he experienced Argentína's breakdown of law and order in Buenos Aires, the capital and major cíty, says sparsely populated rural areas don't necessarily offer more safery. "Iso la­ tion means you are exposed," he says , "which means you are in much greater danger."

Inaddition, Aguirre argues that Amer­ ican preppers overly ínfluenced by pop culture depictions ofsocíal and eco­ nomic collapse are ignoring more prob­ able scenarios in whích they'll have to stay employed, even after dísaster has struck . "There's this idea that it's going to be the Wild West ," .he says, "but it will be like unemployment at 25 per­ cent - hundreds of people for every jobo You'll have .to be very good ar what youdo." And in the deep coun­ tryside, he says, "There is much less job opportuníry."

Lamy, who has studíed surv ívalist and millennialist subcultures, argues that rural areas would offer advantages over cities - but not the deep, sparse­ Iy inhabited countryside that preppers favor. 'Td rather be where I arn right nowIn case of a terrorist attack or economic collapse," says Lamy, whose college is in a town of about 1,500.

"Th ough thís is a rural state, people live in tight-knit communitíes."

Communities, not the isolated rural areas that many preppers recommend, offer key advantages, Larny says. The impulse to retreat to the remote coun­ tryside reflects "too mu ch of a focus on the individual," ·he says . 'T o me , in the event ofa crisis, it's your neigh­ bor whom you're most likely going to rurn to. And I'm not a survi valist by any mear:s . I would defínítely need to rely on my neíghbors." .Prepper author and bJogger BradJey argues that city and suburb dwellers will fínd their best survival possíbili­ ties right at home. "Nine times out of 10, you're better off stayíng at your house," he says . "You've colleeted your life's worth of supplies, and instead

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you 're going to try to stock them up in your líttle bítry car?"

Further, home ground offers the protection and advantage of a local support system, Bradley says. "Unless the world goes so far down that you lose all sense of socíety, hístory shows that we band together when times get tough. I always tell people to try to establish a good network of friends, family and neighbors. If you can get everybody ro get a líttle bit of buy­ in, you 're way stronger than you are by yourself."

•

BACKGROUND

Bomb She1ters

.reparations for the end of the P world have been features of reli­ gions and cívilizatlons for millennia.

The ancient Hebrews expected the apocalypse (from ·the Greek word for "revelation"), leadíng to judgrnent day, a concept later adopted by Christians and Muslims. 32 Biblical and Koranic warnings aside, the possibility of worldwide de­ structíon didn't become an imminent threat untíl the United States dropped atomíc bombs on Hiroshima and Na­ gasaki in August . 1945, ending World War 11, followed several years later by the Soviet Union's constructíon of its own nuclear arsenal. 33 The fírst rwo U.S. presidents of the Nuclear Age - Harry S. Truman and Dwight D. Eisenhower - devised strategíc policies to reflect the new balance of forces . Civil defense played a relatively minor part in these strate­ gies. Yet a program sti11 seen as defin­ íng the early Cold War era began under Truman 0945-1953), Public school training of school­ children ro "duck and cover" agaínst a nuclear blast began in 1951, when

the Federal Civil Defense Administra­ tion produced a booklet and animat­ ed mm, which both bore that title. 34 "Duckand cover" training went on in public schools around the country throughout the 1950s as tensions wíth the Soviet Union escalated. This pro­ tection technique would later be mocked as futile. Still, Eisenhower rejected the idea ofspending up to $30 billion on bomb shelters, investing ínstead in a formidable nuclear arsenal designed to deter an attack.

Eísenhower's successor, ]ohn F. Kennedy, won congressional approval for a $208 million civil defense pro­ gram that would include Iocatíng and desígnatíng spaces in public and pri­ vate buildings that could be used as shelters from post-blast radiation "fa11­ out. " "The lives of those families whích are not hit in a nuclear blast and fire,' he said, "can still be saved - i f they can be warned to take shelter and if that shelter is available." 35 That policy followed studíes in the 1950s show íng that evacuating cities if a nuclear attackappeared imminent was unworkable.

Months before Kennedy's ]anuary 1961 inauguration, only 1,565 home fallout shelters had been built nat íon­ wide. By 1965, the country had an es­ tímated 200,000 family shelters, but those would do little to protecrapopu­ latíon of 194 million. 36 The underwhelming public re­ sponse to the call to build shelters was also reflected in public opinion surveys. In Septernber 1961, 93 percent of respondents to a Gallup poll said they had not seriously considered protecting their homes agaínst nuclear attack, Interese rose the follow íng year, amid the Cuban Missile Crisis.

But despite scattered rush orders for shelters, the U.So-Soviet nuclear stand­ off .failed to prompt a sustained, nation­ wide drive to prepare emergency dwellings in hopes of surviving a nu­ clear strike.

Continued on p. 680

Chroflclogy_ _

1950s-1960s

Dawn of atomic age raises issue

1981

1999

Sales of survivalist supplies reach an estimated $150 million.

Spending on Y2K preparation reaches estimated $100 billion.

1982

2000 Tum of millennium is uneventfu1 , defying predictions of disaster.

of boto Americans would protect tbemselves from nuclear attack,

1951 Schoolchildren begin learning to "duck and cover,"

Reagan administration launches $4.2 billion civil defense program based on plan .to relocate up to rwo-thirds of US. populatíon if nuclear war seems imminent. .

1953 President Eisenhower rejects idea of encouraging Americans to build bomb and fallout shelters.

1961 President John E Kennedy, amid mounting tensions with the Soviet Union, pu shes $208 billion civil defense program through Con­ gress, including establishing fallout shelters in public and private buildings. . . . Debate opens on morality of refusing space in one's shelter to a neighbor.

1983 Reagan administration launches project to develop .Strategic De­ fense Initiative, dubbed "Star Wars." ... ABC's "The Day After" TV movie showscatastrophic effeets of nuclear arrack on a Kansas town.

1987 Massachusetts Institute of Technol­ ogy concludes that small-scale nu­ clear attack on United States would throw survivors into "near­ medieval" conditions for decades.

2003 As Severe Actite Respiratory Syn­ drome (SARS) epidemic spreads from Asia, experts conclude public health systems lack capacity to handle pandemics, 2005 Hunicane Katrina strikes New Orleans; officials bungle relief effort.

2007 Financial crisis begins, leading to high unernployment and eroding public confidence in economíc stability;

2012 Hurricane Sandy strikes East Coast, 1962 devastatíng some areas and dis­ Cuban Míssile Crisis brings US. and rupting e1ectricity supply in parts Soviet Uníon close tb nuclear war. of Manhattan and elsewhere. '. . .

Retiring Defense Secretary Leon .Extremist violence tarnisbes 1965 Panetta wams of looming "cyber­ Number of private family fallout . survivalism label. as millennium . Pearl Harbar" attack on vital pub­ . shelters nationwide peaks at 200,000. fever grouis; poor government licservices. ' . . . Senate cominittee . performance in disasters gives holds hearing on reliability of na­ 1968 rise lo prepper trend. tional electric grid. . ; . NationaJ Paul and Anne H. Ehrlich's Tbe Geographic TV begins "Doomsday Population Bomb wams of immi­ Preppers'' documentary series. .

1993 nent ecological catastrophe.

"Mayan Calendar" seare feeds Apocalyptic Branch Davidian cult members die in fíery end to 51-day doomsday visions. federal law enforcement siege.

2013 US. Energy Departrnent reports 1995 Timothy McVeigh, neo-Nazi

that climate change threatens elec­ tric utílítíes and other energy sys­ bomber with ties to survivalists,

Apocalyptic tbinking gains wide popularity, accompanied destroys Oklahoma City federal

tems. . . . Deadly Oklahoma toma­ by revived fears of nuclear con­ building, killing 168 people.

does prompt debate on adequ acy of state safery codeso . . . Booming frontation witb Sooiet Union. trade .in identifying computer system 1998 flaws underscores fears of cyber at­ Fears grow of a worldwide "Y2K" 1970 tacks. . . . Hollywood blockbuster Tbe Late Great Planet Eartb by computer disaster on Jan. 1, 2000; 'World War Z" plays on prepper· .

Hal Lindsey cites Bible as proph­ U.S. companies and govemment agencies begin spending on projeets fears of sudden, devastating social esyiIig nuclear war, begins long designed to avert projected disaster. run as best-sel1er. and economic collapse.

1990s-2000s '

.

'

1970s-1980s

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Aug. 2, 2013

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RREPARING FOR DISASTER

Mormons Plan for Emergencies

"Times are always uncertain," or decades , rnany Mormons have kept al least three months w orth of food, w ater and emergency money in their homes, but members of the Mormon Church - of­ ficially, The Church of j esus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LOS) - say their motivatíons have to do with reas onable prepara­ tion for emergencies, not fears o f a mega-catastrophe.

"Functionally, it looks a lot like wh at preppers do, but the imperatives behind it are somewhat different," says Matthew Bowman , vísitíng assistant professor of religi ón at Hampden­ Sydney College in Virginia and autho r of T7Je Mormon People.

Tbe Making 01 an American Faitb .

Mormons seek self-relíance in case of unfore seen personal or social circumstances: their aím is to create a community of literal and spírítual stabiliry, Preppers typ ically focus on stock­ piling íte rn s to help them survíve a short-terrn d ísaster or ­ as sorne preppers foresee - major catastrophe ínvolvin g the collapse o f social, political and financial institutions.

Th e Mormon pract íce of storing food and water goes back to the 19th century, as followers of LOS founder joseph Smith fought poverty and practiced se lf-re liance as they fled per­ secution and sought a new beginning in the \\:le s!. 1 The LOS chu rch teaches "p rovident living" - encouraging members lO be self -suffic íent in literacy and ed uc atio n, career devel­ opment , financial-resource managernent, gardening and food storage, physical health and social, emo tíonal and spiritual strength . 2 "Church members are counseled to have a three-month sup­ ply of basíc supplies such as fo od , wat er and savings to care for themselves and the ir farnílíes," LOS spokesman Eric Hawkins said by email, "This is not about 'prepping' for the end of the world . These ítems can be used lo meet any number of cir­ curnstances including emerge ncies, un employment or ilIness."

Mormons expect difficulties to arise from polítícal, social or natural disasters, bUI "tend lo reframe rheír theology of an 'end time' to the necessiry o f living wísely in the pr esent time ," says

F

Continued trom p. 678

Coming Apocalypse? . he 1970s saw a growing belief in a comíng apocalypse. By the 1980s, belief that disaster was looming would propel a movement of people getting readyto endure and,they hoped, sur­ vive catastrophe.

Helpirig to influencecatastrophic views of the irnmediate future was a 1968 . book that quicklyrocketed to

T

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CQ Researcher

Kathleen Flake, assodat e professor of American religious history al Vanderbílt Universiry.

Still, the prepper comm unl ry does includ e Mormons. LOS member Jam es Talmage Steven s was raised lo be prepared and has a couple years' worth of supplies in storage, he says, Stevens, who ow ns me Preparedness Radio Network , is known as Or. Prepper on his daily radio show and is the author of Making tbe Best 01 Basics. Stevens says he has been an "avid prepper" for me past 39 yea rs, but not because of his MOnTIon background.

"1 grew up in an era wh ere there wasn't enough food to go around," he says .

Th e LOS Church taught and encouraged self-reliance, Stevens says, bUI his family pra cticed ír beca use farm life allowed thern lO survíve dífficult times during \\:Iorld War 11. Preparedness was an econornic necessíry, he says .

Self-reliance is important in MOnTIon history, but two events made food and water storage prominent with in the LOS Church, Bowman says, First, the stock market crash of 1929 and en­ su ing eco nomic collapse len church leaders distraught, as they watch ed members suffer through the Great Oepression. I..eaders suggested that mernbers store up a two-year supply o f food when they were finandally able, Bowm an says. 'me LOS Welfare System was also created to encourage communal lon g-term stabíliry, as an alternative to the social programs developed by Presid ent Franklin O. Roosevelt.

Today me church runs 101 storeho uses - food banks that provide bulk food - in Cana da and the United States, A sec ond ímpetus for Mormon preparedness began in the 1960s, when drastic changes in American society sent a shock­ wave of milIennialism through the LOS community and led many members to belíeve the second corning of j esus Christ was at hand. "Mo rmo ns wer e distressed by the moral collapse of socíery,' Bowman says, Millenníalism len many LOS mernbers in a panic, leading LOS lead ers to cru sh the movernent in the

the top of the best-seller list. Tbe Pop­ ulation Bomb, by Stanford University biology professor Paul Ehrlich and rus wífe, Anne H. Ehrlich, later the poli­ cy coordinator of Stanford's Center for Conservation Biology, forecast wíde­ spread environmental disast er ·and famine by the 1980s. Global agricul­ ture and water supplies would be strained past capacity to supply a con" stamly expanding number of humans throughout the world, theEhrlichs wrote. (They now say they missed

sorne cou nter-trends and were wrong about timing, but were fundamen tally correct.) 37

As the Ehrlichs' forecasts círculated among environmentalists, dísaster ex­ pectatíons were growing among Chris­ tian evangelicals,whose rustory of apoc­ alyptical thinking dates back to the early 1800s.

Hal Lindsey, a former minister with Campus Cmsade for ChriS!, sparked a revival with a 1970 book that became a publishing sensation , lbe Late Crea!

1980s and 1990s, Bowman says. Members who hoarded food, preached conspíracíes, owned doomsday videotapes, had splin­ ter study groups or performed any other actions that the LDS Church considered "extreme" were subject to excommunica­ tion. 3 111at action takes away a person's membership rights and privileges. 1 Leaders had previously fought for decades to eradicate stigma linked to past religious beliefs, such as polygarny, that ostracized the LDS Church from socíery, The uproar of "doomsday" Mormons was seen as an embarrassment to leaders who feared the actions might reaffirm past negative ideas, and ultimately, cause Mormons to be "perceived as kooks." 5 Ir was one of the church's largest excommunications since the 1850s. 6 Sorne excommunications took place because of what was seen as excessive food storage. "1 was told that one year's worth of food storage is enough and anything more ís excess," an LDS member told Tbe Salt Lake Tribune in 1992. 7 The church gradually reduced its storage standard from two years to the current three months by publishing changes in its Prooident Liumg pamphlets, but made no public announcements explaining the reason behind it, Bowman says.

"111is is a global church, and in sorne areas of the world, its either impractica\ or illegal to store these supplies," Hawkins said.

Volunteer-run, church-affiliated canneries provide a place to buy cheap food in bulk. For those who cannot afford the food, the LDS Welfare System - in partnership with the church-op­ erated storehouses (food banks) - supplies it to the poor.

However, food recipients must volunteer time to the welfare system as a way to promote self-sustainability.

Eighty-five percent of LDS storehouse produce is provided through the church's welfare system, says Stevens, who is also in charge of the San Amonio bíshop's storehouse in Texas.

Church members fast for 24 hours on the first Sunday of every month and donate the money that woulcl have bought meals

Planet Earth, which cited biblical pas­ sages as prophecies applicable to the late 20th century - including the threat of nuclear war and the 1948 creatíon of Israel. 38 But apocalyptíc expectations didn't leave much room - beyond accept­ ing Christ - for surviving the "end times," which include a time of "tribu­ latíon" when conflict and disaster in­ tensify, that Lindsey and others pre­ dicted, "[udgment ís comíng, and the carnage is :;0 horrible that most of the

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Bread and other food items are prepared at

Welfare Square, the Mormons' emergency

storehouse in Saft Lake City, Utah.

for that day to the welfare system, Stevens says. Storehouse food is not just for LDS members, but can go to anyone with a valid request.

Mormons beJieve in being able to take care of themselves and each other, Flake says. "Times are always uncertain," she says.

- Alisba Forbes 1 C1aire Holton Hammond, Soutbern Economic journal, Vol. 61, No. 1, july 1994, p. 230, WWW.~~lor.orglslable/1060154. For background, see Marcia Clemmítt, "Understanding Mormonísrn," CQ Researcher, Oct. 19, 2012, pp. 889-912.

1 "Provídent Living - A W,¡y of Life," The Church of jesus Christ of Laner-day Saints, Septernber 1987, www.lds.org!liahona/1987/09/proviclenl-living-a-way­ of-life.

3 Hugh DeUiC6, "Doomsday' Mormons Say Churrh Rejects Them," Tbe Cbicago Tribune, Jan. 3. 1993, w,,·w.anicles.chicagou-ibune.com!I993-0l-D3/news/930 3152411_1_molmon-church-monnon-alliance-ehurch-leaclers.

4 "The Guicle to [he Scríptures: Excomrnunicaüon," The Church of jesus Chríst of Laner-day Saints. www.lds.orglSCIiptures/gs/excommunicalion?lang=eng.

5 Dellios, op. cit.

6 Chrís Jorgensen and Peggy Fletchcr Stack, "lt's judgment Day for Far Right:

LOS Church Purges Survívalísts," Tbe Salt Lake Tribune, Nov. 29, 1992, p. Al,

,,·ww.ibiblio.orglpub/acaclemic/political-science/fa:icism!LDS.press.

7

Ibid.

population on the Earth during the Tribulation will be annihilated," the late Rev. ]erry Falwell, an influential and politically powerful Southern Bap­ tist minister, said during the 1990s. 39 The same forecasted events that apocalypse preachers drew on also figured in another group's prepara­ tions for collapse of the social order.

So-called "survívalists" began stockpiling food and other suppliesand setting up ruralhideouts to retreat to when the social order collapsed.

The owner of a projeet to build a 240-unit underground shelter in Utah said of prospective customers: "Half believe there will be nuclear war, and half believe there will be economic collapse followed by complete chaos, riots, that kind of thing." 40 Survivalists were not alone in fear­ ing nuclear war. In 1982 the admínís­ tration ofPresident Ronald Reagan 0981­ 1989} launched a $4.2 billion civil defense program designed to relocate up ro two-thírds of the population to

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BREPARING FOR ·DISASTER

safe plac es if nu clear w ar rhreatened.

The underlyíng idea w as that the strat­ egy could lead to a su rvival rate of 80 percent of the American peop le ­ up from the 40 percent rate estímated in the absence- of mass relocatíon. 41 The following year, in another move that kept issues of nuclear war andsurvivability on me natíonal radar, Reagan proposed the .Stra tegic De­ fense Initiatíve , a hígh-tech system de­ signed to shoot down Soviet missiles .

Ir was irnmediately nicknarned "Star Wars ." (The fírst movie in that sedes had appeared in 1977.) 42 Reagan pitchedthe plan as one that would make nuclear war less likely ­ and, by ímpl ícatíon, civil defense less ne cessary -bec'ause the shoot-down strategy wouldreplace the doctrine of massive retaliation that had been in place since the early days of the Cold War. In a televísed sp eech from the White House, Reagan argued that bis plan would . crea te "a truly lasting stability." 43 But Reagan 's earlier belief in the possibility of nuclear war stoked fears as well as calls for riuclear disarma­ ment. Months after the 1983 "Star Wars" sp eec h, ABC broadcast a TV movie, "The Day After," which show ed the devastation of a nuclear strike on the town of Lawren ce ; Kan. The fílm helped lead to an uptick in support for a freeze onnuclear weapons (though Reagan remained popular, wín­ ning .re-electlon the followíng yea r). 44 . . The fílm's graphic depictions of the horror of nucl ear war didn't bolster the admíní stratíon 's line thatthe effec ts of a nuclear attack could be mítigated. Crit­ ícs were also arguing that atomic con­ flict wouldbe almost unimaginably car­ astrophíc A 1987 study published by the Massachusetts Inst ítute of Technol­ ogy concluded that even a limited nu­ clear attack on the Uníted States would leave survivors in "near-med íeval levels of existence" for decades. 45 The MIT study effectivel y confírmed survívalísts' worst fears. In 1984 ; Tbe Washington Post íntervíewed a Mary­

682

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land family that was systematically by visío ris of a race w ar laid out in preparing for atomic disaster, with a a novel by a neo-Nazi leader, the late years supply of food, water and water­ William Pierce. Investigations connected purification equipment, firearrns, ge n­ McVeigh, who was executed in 2001 erator.and -fuel and more, including a for the deadly bombing, with a sub­ van with a40-gallon gas tank . "Un­ culture of far-rí ght rural extremists, less you líve in the heart of a city, the sorne labeled "survívaltsts." 48 odds are you wíll su rvíve," Steve Whit­ A Salt Lake City entrepreneur, Dan ney told !be Post. "Then you face the Chittock , had helped forge the ties be­ real challenge. It's not survívíng the . tween those simp ly preparing for dis­ attack.Jt's survíving the week after it, asters ·and those whose preparatíons the month after, the year after." 46 were tied to an ideological perspec­ tive based on conspiracy theories and racism o "1 crea red a forurn for contro­ versia! and altematíve idea s," Chittock told Tbe Washington Post' at a trade he 1990s saw an event that Iess­ show in Seattle five months after the . ened wíde appeal of the terrn "sur- . Oklahoma City bombing. The Pre­ vívalíst," . And dísaster predietions suf­ paredness Expo featured sellers of man­ fered a temporary loss of credibility after uals on sniper training and on mak­ the arrivalof the year 2000 was marked ing land mines, booby traps and firearrn by the nonoccurren ce of the so-calle d silencers. 49 "Y2K" catastrophe predicted by many But sorne other vendorsdisplaying seemingly well-qualífled people.. products . with no ideological o ver­ Early in the decade, a 51-day siege tones - beef jerky, reu sable laundry by federal law enforcement agencies products and ·gree nhouses - were of a compound run by a well-armed wa ry of their more militaristíc fellow religious cult near Waco, Texas , ended exhibitors.

Eventually,the less politically orí­ in the deaths of as manyas 86 of the b elievers , including 25 children. Th ey ented ve ndors drifted away from the died in a fire that a gov ernment-ap­ far-ríght o nes, an d the su rvivalíst move­ poínted special co unse l concluded ment sp lít between people expecting was started by cult members. Th e politicallycharged events and those compound housed members of the prepar ing for earthquakes, hurricanes and other natural d ísasters.

Branch Davidians - abreakaway fac­ tion of the Seventh-day Adventist de­ As sorne survivalists tried to devel­ nomination that followed a messi ani c óp a ne w way of ass essing rhrea ts, figure . named David Koresh. He top . US government o fficials we re preached that the apocalypse as de ­ worrying about a reappearance of scribe d the Bible 's "Book of Revela­ one of the b igge st thr eats to human­ tio n" w as imminent. · To Koresh a nd ity - ínfectíous dis ea se . In the 1990s, his followers, tha t visíon was confirmed the ad mín ístra tio n of President Bill w hen Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco , Clinton (1993-2001) forrnally listed dis­ Firearms and Exp los íves age nts tried e ase sp rea d as a nat íonal security issu e . The move refle cted grow íng to serve a search warrantat the com­ pound, leading to a gunfi ght that tríg­ concern prompted by events, includ­ gered the siege . 47 ing the sprea d of avian influenza C'Avían Sorne others with apocalyptíc views Flu") rhrough Asia. 50 looked beyond religion. In 1995, far­ The backdrop to all of these de­ right extre rnis t Timothy Mc Veigh velopments was the approach of the bombed the Alfred P. Murrah Fed eral new míllenníum, which sparked fears Buildin g in Oklahoma City, inspired among a wide specrrum of people that

Disaster Predictions

T

the world was heading toward glob ­ was surprised when surveying preppers al catastrophe. One seemi ngly plausi­ ro leam that Sept. 11 had had lirtle ro ble scenario grew out of the major do with awakening their concems. 'They technological cha nges under way at aU tied it back to Hurricane Katrina," breakneck pace during the Iast decade he says. 55 of the 20th century.

An es tíma ted 1,500 people - but With banks, transportatíon systems perhaps as many as 3,500 - clied as a and utiJities increasingly operating on result of the hurrícane and ensuíng flood­ computer networks, a number of ex­ íng in and around New Orleans. 56 perts predícted a worldwide catastrophe FEMA officials had downplayed or ig­ when cJocks and calendars rurned over nored explicit and accurate warníngs to the beginning of the 21st century. 51 of the likely effecrs of Katrína in New For about rwo years before wh at be­ Orleans. The agency sent orily on e­ carne un íversally known as "Y2K," many . quarter of its search-and-rescue force computer expertssaid prograrruning codes to the city before the storm, and no buílt into older computers wouldn't rec­ emergency relief personnel at all unt íl ognize post-1m dates , thereby .plung­ after the hurricane had moved on . 57 State and city officials d ídn't do a ing banking, utiliry and transportatíon services ínto chaos. 52 much better job.Sevenry percent of Consultants among those warning New Orleans nur sing homes we ren't of potent íal d ísaster p rofited hand­ evacua ted, desp íte state regul ations to somely. In the United iStates . alone, the conrrary. And armed criminals ter­ co mpan íes and government agencies rorized so me seeking she lte r ar the were es tímated to have spent at least city's conventíon center, where san íta­ $100 billion to avert a Y2K disaster in tíon in the crowded building deterío­ their nerworks. 53 But the exp ected rated to the po ínt of threaten íng the health of those who had taken refuge. catastrophe never occurred.

Some people concluded that those w ho took cornfort in the idea that gov­ ernmenr agenci es would help them if disaster struck were kidding themselves. arly in the 21st cenrury a succes­ That víew seemed to be confírmed less sion of events, fromthe Sept. 11, than ayear after Katrína by investiga­ 2001, terrorist attacks toa string of tors cornmissioned by a group of Re­ hurrícanes, wildfires and other natur­ publican House members. "Katrína was al disasters plus the financial crisis, in­ a failure of initiative," a report saíd, spired a new waveof preparation for aiming íts criticisrn a t the Republican the worst. admínístratíon of President George \YI. Several yea rs into the millennium, Bush (2001-2009). "Blinding lack of sit­ the terrn "prep per' cropped up ; al­ uatíon al awareness and disjointed de­ though who coined ir is uncertain. 54 cisíon making needlessl y compounded Many .who adopted the term believe and prolonged Katrina 's horror." 58 Meanwhile, the speed w íth which it avoids the extrerníst or ant í-soclal associations of "survivalist." disease could spread globaUy prompt­ The Sept . ' 11 attacks would seem ed deep co nce m in circles not gíven ro have beenenough to generate new ro alarmísm. By 2005, the spread of Se­ fears of sudden disaster, but preppers vere Acure Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), and those who srudy them point to a virus iden tíñed two years earlier as it the slow-movíng catastrophe generated spread from Asia to the Amerícas and

by Hurrícane KatrinaIn New Orleans Europe, had convinced public health in 2005 as more ínfluentíal. Huddleston experts that even societies with ad­ oE Southem IIlinois University says he vanced medical systems were vulnera­

Preppers

E

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~.cqresearche~corn

ble to the massíve spread of dan ger­ ous diseases. "111e potential for a pan­ demi c comes at a time when the world's public health systems are severely taxed and have long been in decline," Laurie Garrett, senior fellow for globa l health al the Council on Foreign Relatíons, wrote in 2005. 'Th.is is true in both rích and poor countries." 59 Later in the de cade, econ omic d ís­ aster struck. The crisis, which began in 2007 - and still pers ísts for man y ­ left deep scars on Americans who lost jobs, as well as on those wh o feared losing them and facing lon g-term un­ employmenr . "The unemployment rate is soaring ," the Pennsylvania-based ad­ mínístrator of a prepper web site told the For! Wor!b Star-Telegram, "and most people are not prepared to be without a paycheck for a week, much less a month or longer." 60 The recession persuaded some prep­ pers that gettíng ready financially ranked as high on the prioriry list as storín g food. "The fírst thíng, 1 say, is get debt­ free," the New Mexico prepper says , ech oing a sentíment that crops up re­ peatedly on prepper websites.

Even as the effecrs of high unem­ ployment Iinger, ap ocalypt ic fears go t amajor dose of hyp e in 2012, as a variety of self-proclaimed prophets in th e '''new a ge " ca mp claimed the Mayan calendar foretold the end of the world on Dec. 21, 2012. The "Mayan calendar" scare had les s effect o n preppers, but díd show that concems o r fears of the future were reson atin g throu gh other sectors of society. "1 think this tells us more about ourse lves, par­ ticularly in the Western world, than it does ab out the ancíent Maya," Geof­ frey Braswell , an associate professor of anthropology and leading Maya scholar at the Univers ity of California, San Diego, told The Assocíated Press.

"The idea that the world will end so on is a very stron g belief in Western cul­ tures. . . . The Maya, we don 't really know if they believed the world would ever end ." 61 liI

Aug. 2, 2013

683

RREPARING FOR DI5A5TER

CURRENT

SITUATION

Climate Prepping any preppers, responding

to

re­

M cent power blackouts duríng hur­

rícanes and other natural dísasrers and to me potentíal for carastrophíc ínter­ ruptíon of power supply from solar storms, foresee suddenly losíng electrícíry, At me same time, awareness of longer­ term threats to electricity reUability and other pillars of mod em life is growing in prepper círcles. "1 would sure hate to see us end up a desert like me one near Egypt," one commenter wrote in a thread on drought on me . ínfl u entíal American .Preppers Network site. 62 However irnmínent me danger of mas­ síve desertification may be in the United States, scientists and engineers from the U.S. Department of Energy are reporting that climate change is affectíng the na­ tíonal power system in the here and now.

"Increasíng temperarures, decreasing water availability, more intense storm events, and sea level rise will each in­ dependently, and in some cases in com­ bination, affect me ability of the Uníted States to produce electricity from fossíl, nuclear and existing and emerging .re­ newable-energy sources," me department said in a report issued in july, 63 The report, which covers threats to me entire energy índustry as weIl as electricity sup ply, reflects a growíng sense that avoiding clímate change cat­ astrophes will require major steps at all levels of govemment.

In New York, outgo íng Mayor Michael Bloomberg has proposed a $195 billion package to include flood­ wall and levee construction as well as flood protectíonmhospítals and apart­ ment builclings. The plan is designed to avoíd another clisasterlike me one.caused last year by Hurricane Sandy. 64

684

cQ Researcher

In Okl ah oma , where one of sever­ al intense tomadoes that hit me state mis year kilIed at least 24 people in Moare, south of Oklahoma City, me events have led to questions abou t whether laws or building codes should require homes to have storm shelters.

"Most homebuilders would be agaínst that because we think the market ought to dríve what people are putting m me houses, not me government," Mike GilIes, former president of me Okla­ homa State Home Builders Associa­ tion, told Tbe Neto York ·Times . 65 That me climate is changing, with cIearly measurable effects , is not open to serious question. When it comes to me se effects' consequences for me na­ tíonal power supply, me Energy De­ partmentIays out a vision of gradual decline including regional blackouts, rather than sudden cataclysm.

Among preppers, however, getting ready for sudden shutdow ns is a major topie. Prepper sites are fílled w íth dis­ cussions and explanations ofhow to set up altemative power sources, me cludíng gasoline-fired generators, and solar- and wind-powered systems. One prepper even Usted steps for setting up a mini-hydroelectric systern. "One of me major d ísadvantages ís that mese systems clearly are not portable," he adds, warning preppers who are plan­ níng to evacuare theír homes. 66 Preppers settíng up theír own .power systems are getting read y for long "gríd­ down" periods. So far, me energy de­ partrnent report said, recent electrícíty shutdow ns have been temporary, due to a variety of clímate-related events that hit eíght Northeastem states, San Diego Counry, Ca1if., and parts of Texas, North Carolina and New Mexico,while power stations in Connecticut, Illinois, Arízona, Alabarna and Michigan límped along at .reduced capacity. 67 The símplest of me clírnate change straíns on me electríc grid is rising tem­ perarures, which prompt heav íer use of air conclitioners. Those straíns are liable to continue. Under me worst-

case scenarío, average temperarures in me Westem sta tes could rise by up to 5.2 degrees Celsius C9 degrees Fahren­ he ít) by me year 2050, according to a srudy by Argonne Natíonal Laboratory m Argonne, m, cited m me Energy Department reportoArgonne calcula tes that me resulting higher demand for air conditioning will require adding 34gigaw aus of generating capacity, al a cost of about $45 billion. 68 . For now, in add ition to rising tem­ perarures, drought in pan of me coun­ rry is reducing water supply for cool­ ing power plants and for hydroelectríc installations. Rísíng sea levels along wíth fiercer storms are hittíng power plants near coa sts . Bigger andfíercer forest fires in me West are buming through transmíssion línes.

Zombie Threat ne of me closíng lines of "Warld War Z ," a summer blockbuster now .in theaters, echoes dassic prep­ per wísd om : "Be prepared for anythíng. " The Brad Pitt vehicle centers on a plague that moves acros s me world virtually at me speed of ligh t, creating a terri­ fying species of zombíes.

The film .plays en a favoríte therne among preppers, who favor zombiesas a collective metaphor for sudden, dras­ tic socia! collapse. "World War Z" has hit screens at a time wh en apocalyptic disaster isbecoming a favoríte therne for movíes and TV series. "There's somethíng m me zeitgeist right now thars making me se storíes even mare intríguíng,"TV producer Ga1eAnne Hurd told entertaínment wríter T. L. Stanley.

"Wim me global economy beíng a mess, floods , tornadoes, hurricanes, wars , everyone's waiting for me other shoe to drop and affect them personally But w íth some of this entertaínment, they can experience it once removed ." 69 .Hurd is executíve producer of "Th e WalkiJ1g Dead," a TV · zombie drama

O

Continued on p. 686

At Issue:

-----------'------------­

Is a rural area tbe best place for surviving disaster?

DON SfAPLES

FERNANDO AGUIRRE

MANAGER, TRUPREP RE'L4IL OlffLETS, ..

ROSWELL AND MARlETTA, GA.

~BASED

WRITfEN FOR CQ RESFARCHER, AUGUsr 2013

WRITIEN FOR CQ RESFARCHER, AUGUsr 2013

t:

PREPPER AUlliOR AND

BLOGGER

t:

best location for survívíng disaster depends on many idea of a rural homestead beíng the best place tO be variables. What rype of disaster? Are you in the iniddle of during a diS<:,ster is u.sually fueled by Hollywood and fic­ a large city or in the suburbs? Is it a long-term síruatíon . tíon rather than historyand logíc. . like an economic collapse or short terrn líke a tomado?

A rural location has few advantages. In a pandemic, for ex­ arnple, beíng away from masses of people sounds like a good In the short term it makes sense to stay in your house, .íd éa. But what about nonhuman vectors of dísease? Some of with all yourpossesstons and connorts. No point in abandon­ ing everything b'ecause a tornado kríocked o t power for a the worst pandemics \' been spread by rats and mosquitoes, week . If nothíng else, you need to be th'ere tO protect your and these are much easier control ed m urban areas, investment.

What about an economic crisis or full economic collapse?

If the dísaster ís going to last many rnonths ro ayear or Won't cítíes burn to the ground witti the bra e survivors more, getting where you can subsist i essentíal, You need to bugging out to e country? Again, histOIJ' sliows that people rnoveto the cities when ther é's an econorruc crisis, not the be able to grow food, find c1ea drinking water and be safe . from what may be happening in the cíty or spread íng from other way around, and írs small towns that end up turníng the ciry to me süburbs, There will be many people totally Into ghost towns.

I've lived through an economíc collapse while living in unpr epare d, and most wil! become a prob lerri for those who Argentina, and 1 can tell you from fírst-hand experíence it's did prepare. nothing like you see ín movies, The fírst príoríty is water. If you are buyíng land in advance, What about social unrest andwídespread ríotíng when do not buy anything wíthout its own water. Space ro grow food ís the second príoríry. It is impractical for most people to police are helpless? In spíte of the dramatic ímages of ríotíng, store enough food to get through a long-term issue.. You must the truth is that other than full-blown war, violence from ríot­ also have seeds , hand tools, fertilízer, open space that gers ing and lawlessness ís limíred to a few days or weeks, In Ar­ plenty of sunlíght andplenty of help from the family and/or gentina ; following the fínancial meltdown of 2001-2002, wide­ fríends you bring along. Shelter ís hugely important as well. A . spread ríotíng lasted only a few days, with sorne additional tent wiJI serve in the short termbut building somethirig more incidents happeníng sporadically several weeks later. Riots in substantíal wiJI be important. You may also builda permanent such places as London, Los Angeles and , recently, Brazil fol­ shelter in advance or have a recreational vehicle onsíte, The lowed a similar pattern. Rioting looks eye-catchíng 00 TV, but ít's not as ímpressíve when you look at how long it Jasts or RV could also serve as transportation to the location. You will the number of fatalitíes. also need fírearms and ammunition to deal with predators of the two- and four-legged varíery, Gettíng out of densely popu­ Being away from the city does reduce the chances of lated .areas wíll keep you and yours safe from most of the being victimized by vandalism, petty crime and occasíonal rwo-legged animals, and the four-legged ones 'Vil! be food at break-ins, but an isolated house is more often targeted than one where neighbors are closer by. In fact, in hígh-crírne parts some point.

1 cannot over-ernphasíze the ímportance of groups for of the world like Latin America or Africa, isolated homesteads mutual support. The lone-wolf types wiJI be the first to die, are impossible to defend from determíned criminals. Instead, as no one can. stay alert 24(7. The people in the group people choose to live in gated communities or apartment towers with good securíry, should have varying skills, including mechanícal ability, hunt­ ing abílíty, medical training, etc. There should be people who In spite of all the doom and gloom, 90 percent of us will know how to grow food as well, though everyone should probably die from cancer or cardiovascular complications ­ pítch in to help with the farming labor. cornmon, ordinary illnesses that don 't sound as cool as zombies or raiders. Being doser to quality medica) care means that Get these people together, preferably in advance , and the group should be able to survive any long-term disaster com­ your chances of survival increase considerably, and so does forrably. your quality of l¡fe during treatment. .

www.cqresearcher.com

Aug. 2, 2013

685

RREPARING FOR DrSASTER

Conlinued from p. 684

that became an instant hit on At\1c.

Other global catastrophe-therned TV shows inelude "Fallíng Surpríse," an alien­ invasion series On TNT; and "Revolu­ tíon," an NBC series scheduled to start in me fall that posits a global power blackout. TNT is planníng another apocalypse series as well, "The Last Shíp," about a Navy destroyer crew that is at sea when a panderníc w ípes out rnosr of humaníty Meanwhile, N atíon­ al Geographi c's "Doomsday Preppers,"

itself obiíged ro respondo The U.S. In­ form ation Agency worked on a gu íd­ ance document for its spokesmen ­ "Possible Questions and Suggested Answers on me Film 'On me Beach .' " The adminístrat íon's civil defense di­ rector, Leo . Hoegh , commented un­ happily about me novel. "If you . . . took that thing as beíng me truth, everyone would give up." 71 Today, government agencies are tak­ ing a dífferent approach. View íng me popularíty of zornbíe-themed apocalypse

co me along. in yo ur daily life whi ch may inelude havíng .your face eaten by me forrnerly deceased." 73 Huddleston, theanthropologist who has embedded hírnself with me squad , says me choice of name was a deliberare bid to artract ínterest. "They say thar if they were called the St. Loui s tornado squad nobody would come ro rneetíngs," he says.

"World War Z" makes a convíncíng case for a zombie plague as a text­ book symbol of sudden callapse. Th e movie depiets the sudden, worldwide desrruction of vírtually every pillar of me soc ial and political order, Along me way, the film valida tes many preppers' faith in fírearms ­ whi ch are effectíve agaínst the movie's c: zombies, under me ríght circumstances.

And Pitt's character echoes another ~ "3 U) doctrine espoused by many preppers. e ti · Escape me .crowds and cha os. He telis ::J ~ another family: "Movemen t is life." ..

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The vulnerability of the nation 's powet grid to natural and menmededisesters, including terrorism, worries politicians and scientists, as well as many preppers.

Less well known to the qeneretpublic is the danger of a power shutdown caused by electromeqnetic pulses.(EMP) from nuclear weapons detonated in the atmosphere, or by solar storms that can damage e/ectrical facilities.

featuríng real characters getting ready .dramas as an opportun íty, me U.S. Cen­ for disast er, wiJI be returníng for a sec­ ond season. 70 The vogue for po st-apocalypse drama also ineludes seríous fíctíon, such as Pulitzer Prize-winner Corm ac McCarth y's 2006 novel, Tbe Road (later a movie starring Viggo Mortensen), To some extent, me post-apocalypse cultural w ave is a repeat performance.

In the 1950s and '60s, film and pop­ ular fíctíon were filled wíth tales of nuclear war and its conseque nces. On tbe Beacb, a novel and then a 1959 movíe abou t a small group of sur" vívo rs gatheredin Australia, made a deep enough impression on me pub­ lic, writes historian Kennem D. Rose, mat the Eisenhower adminisrration felt

686cQ Researcher

ters for Disease Control and Prevention launched a preparedness campaígnlast year, "Zombie Preparedness," whích Iíght­ heartedly uses me fictional rhreat as a PR devíce. "If you are generally well equipped ro deal w íth a zombie apoc­ alypse youwíll be prepared for a hur­ rícane, pandemic, earthquake or terror­ ist attack," Dr.. Ali Khan.ithe centers' director, saíd on me site . 72 The CDC was copying a humor­ infused tactic used by ar least one prepper grou p , theSt. Louis-based "Zombie Squad." Noting that someone read y for a zombie uprísíng is ready for anything, thegroup says on its site: "We want to make sure you are pre­ pared for any crisis siruationthat might

OUTLOOK Continuing Phenomenon

D

ísasters are an effective recruit­ íng rool for the prepper rnove­

ment, author/engineer Bradley says.

After a 2011 tsunarni wrecked a nu­ clear power plant at Fukushíma, ]apan, causing major díscharges of radioactive ma terial. -:; "1 received hundreds and hundreds of ernaíls from people on the \Vest Coast worríed about radia­ tion . sayíng. "Ihe government is going to lie to us : - Bradley says. "Every­ body wa s scrambling for iodine tablets and radiation meters. Sales of my books skyrockered."

Lntíl the next big d ísaster hits, Bradley expects ínteres t in prepping ro wane, asafter-shocks of recent dis­ 3Sters fade .

Still. in a young century in which disasters ha \'e already béen plentiful,

says Redlener of ColumbiaUniversi­ ty's National Cenrer on Disaster Pre­ paredness, 'The impetus for the prep­ per movement is not go ing to go away."

Aguirre, the Argenrina-born prepper author/b logger, expecrs in terest in prep­ píng ro remain high as long as the eco­ nornic crisis persisrs. "In five years, you are still goíng to be seeíng qu ite a bit of thí s'' prepper activiry, he says. "Maybe in 10 years it will decrease as things start getting a little bit better."

But historian Rose notes that apo c­ alyptic expectations are deeply em­ bedded in Westem culture . And the prepper movement, .as the latest e m­ bodimenr of a trend that has appea red befare in the Uníted States, has proved its durability. "This is sorrieth íng yo u saw in the '60s," he says. "What. we 're seeing ís just a differenr face o n an older phenomenon."

Nevertheless, socíologíst Lamy of Castleton State College in Vermont says a faster pace of major change may be inten sifying a sense of the need for pre­ pa redness. "Bíg global changes are in­ de ed .alteríng and .changíng the eco­ nomí c, social, and cultural fabric of our society," he says in an email. "It's change and fear of change (and a deeply root­ ed apocalyptic mythol ogy) that fuels míllenníalísm, whether relig íous cult, anti-government survivalists, or the prep­ per movement," Still, as a movement w ith no fixe d doctrines or membership requ iremenrs, "prep perism" doesn't fu ínto a single an­ alytícal scheme. Imel-Harrford ,the prep­ per and scho lar of prepperism, argues thar the underlying spirit is no more complicated than basic common sense.

"You get car insurance , and you have a jack and a spare tire in your ca r, just in case you get a flat tire," she says. "Say there's a gas sh ort age , and ship menrs can't get food to gro­ ce ry stores, and it lasts a week , or a zr íd -dow n situation toral socíetal b and governrnen tal collapse. I'm hop­ ing tl1at nothing like that w ould ever happen, but I'm prepared ."

•

www.cqresearcher.com

www.p repper-resources .co m/7-actio ns-to-take­ im mediately-following-an-ernp-strik e.

11 Sharon Weinbe rger, "The Boogeyman Bomb," Foreign Poli cy , Feb. 17 , 2010 , www.foreig n 1 "Doomsday Preppers ," Nationa l Geograpb­ polícy.com/artides/2 01O/02/ l7/ theJxx>geyman_ ic , "The Time o f Reckoni ng," rep eat broad­

bombo cast, jul y 11, 2013, ha p:// ch annel.nati onal 12 "Geomagn etic Storms," CEN-rnA TechnoJogy geographic.com/cha nnel/doomsday-pre ppers/

lnc., J an . 14, 2011, p p. 11-13, www. oe cd.org/ videos/doomsday-aJamo/ ; "Gonna Be a Big gov/ risk/4689164 5.pdf; "Abo ut CENmA," un­ Bang ," repeat br oa d cast, Jul y 25, 2013, hnp://

dated, www .ce ntra tec hno logy.com/ About/; channel.nation algeogra phic..co m/channeVdooms Richa rd A. Lave n , "\,'il h at if the Biggest Solar day-preppers/ vídeos/bugged-our/.

Storrn on Record Happened Tod ay," Na ttonat 2 Quoted in j ohn M. Bro der, "Climate Change

Geograpbic News, March 2, 2011, hap :/ /ne ws.

W¡J] Cause More Energy Breakdowns, US. \Xiams,"

nationalgeogra phi c.com/news/20l1/ 03/11 0302­ Tbe New York Times, jul y 11, 2013, www.ny

so lar-flares-sun-stoffi15-ea rth-da nge r-canington­ times.com/2 013/ 07/1 1/us/ clirnate-change-will­

event-science/ . cause-more-energy-breakdowns-us-wams .html?_ 13 "Electric Grid Vulne rability: lnd ustry Responses r=O;. "U S. Energy Sector vulnerabilities to Cli­

Reveal Securíty Gaps,' staff report, Reps. Ed­ mate Change an Extreme Weather," U.S. De­

wa rd J. Markey, D-Mass., and Henry A. Wax­ partment o f Ene rgy, july 2013, pp. 1-7, hnp:// man, D-CaJif., May 21, 2013, p. 2, hap:/ / demo e nergy.gov/ sites/prod/fU es/2013/07/ f2/2013071 crats.ene rgycornmerce .ho use. gov/sites/defaulr/ O-Energy-Sector-Vuln e rab ilitie s-Repon.pdf.

fUes/do cumen ts/Re port-Electric-G rid -Vu lne ra 3 Richard Morgan "Prepper Food List," in Great bility-2013-5-21.pdf; j osh Hicks, "House Dem oc­ Nortbern Prepper b log, un dat ed, www.great rats' repon says power grid ís vulnerabl e ro nonhemprepper.com/food-prep/food-prep-lists. cyber aaac ks," 77Je Washington fust, May 22 2013, 4 Keith O'Brien , "How to Survive Socíetal

www.w ashingtonposLcom/bJogs/federal-eye/ Collapse in Subur b ia," Tbe Neui 'rorle Times, w p/ 2013/ 05/ 22!house-democrats-re pon- says­ No v. 16, 2012 , www.nyt imes .com/2012/ 11/ 18/

power-grid-vu lne rab le-to-cybe r-anacks/; Sea n ma gazi ne!how -to-survive-so cietal-collapse-in­

Sullivan , "Ma rkey wins Massachusens Senate su bu rbia .htmPpagewanted=a ll.

race,' Tbe Washington fust,J une 25, 2013, ' V'''W. 5 "Te rro r Hits Home : TI1e Oklahoma Círy

w ash ingtonpost .co m/blo gs/post-pol itics/ w p/ Bo rnbing," Federal Burea u of Investigation, un­

2013/r:I5/25/markey-w ins-massachuseas-sena te­ dated, www.tbi.gov/about-us!histo ry/ famo us­

race /.

Notes

cases/ oklah om a-cíty-bo mbín g.

6Rick Perlstein , "Nothí ng Ne w Under the

\'(/ingnut Sun: 'Survi valism,' " Tbe Nation blog,

Feb. 2, 2013, www.thenation. com/blog/I72619/

nothing-ne w-und er-wingnut-sun-survivalism#

ixzz2Zyslvqms.

7 James Barran, "After the Devastaríon, a Daunt­

ing Recovery," Tbe New York TImes, oa. 30, 2012,

www.nytimes.com/2012/ 10/31/ us!h unicane ­

san dy-barrels-regio n-leaving -b-aaered-pa th .hunl?

pagewanted=all.

8 Quoted in EJisabeth Bum.iJJer and Thom Shanker,

"Panetta Wams of Dire Threat of Cybe rana ck

on US.," Tbe New York Times, Oct. 11, 2012,

www.nytimes.com/201 2/1 0/l 2/worl d!paneaa­

warns-of-dire-threat-o f-cyb erana ck.hunl . For

b ackground, see Rolan d Flarniní, "Improving

Cybe rsecuri ty," CQ Researcber, Feb . 15, 2013,

pp. 157-100; also see Brian Hanse n, "Cyber-Criroe,"

CQ Researcber, April 12, 2OO2,pp. 305-328.

9 Arthur T. Bradle y, Disasr.er Preparednessjor

EMP Attachs cmd Sola r Stonns(2012).

10 '7 actions to take im me dia tely foJlowing an EMP strike," Prepper-Resources, Jan. 2 2013 ,

14 j oe Stephens and Mary Pat Flaherry, "Why Pepco Can't Keep the Lights On," Tbe Wash­ ington Post, Dec. 5, 2010, p. Al, www.wa sh ington posLco m/Wp-dyn/content/anicle/ 2010/ 12/ 04/ A1U010 120403887. html.

15 Alan Feuer, "The Preppers Next Door," Tbe New York Tim es, Jan . 26, 2013, www.nytimes. co m/ 2013/0l/27/ nyreg ion/ the-doomsday-prep pers-of-new-yo rk.htmJ?pagewa nted=a ll.

16 Michae l Snyder, "25 Things Th at You Shoul d Do To Ge t Prep ared For Th e Comíng Eco­ nomic Collapse," Tbe Prepperfournal, April 11, 2013, ,vww.thep reppe~oumal.com/2013/04/ll/ 25-things-that- you-sh ouJd-do-to-get-prepared­ for-the-coming-econornic-collapse/ , "AlI OfTI1e Money In You r Ban k Acco unt Co uJd Dísap­ peal' in a Sing le Morn ent " (b log post b y "Silent Prepper"), PrepperCentral, April8, 2013, hup:// pr eppercentral.co m;?p=3832; "Barteríng Su p­ plies TI1at You Haven't Th ou ght O f; And Some You Have!" blog post by "Carl," American Prep­ pers Nerwo rk, April 29, 2013, hnp:/ /american preppersnerwor k.com/entry/banering-supplies­ that-you-haven -t-thou ght-of-and-some-you-have.

Aug. 2, 2013

687

RREPARING FOR DISASTER

Hand ls Suspected In Co mpu ter Anacks,' Tbe 34 Q uoted in Kenneth D. Rose , One Nation Un­ 17 "Employ me nt Sítua ríon Summary," U.s, Bu­ Neto York Times, ocr. 14, 2012, www.nyt imes , derground: Tbe FaI10ut Sbelter inAmerican Cul­ reau of Labor Statístícs, july 5, 2013, www.p bs. corn/2012/10/14/world/ middIeea st!us-sllSpect5­ ture (2001). Except where otherwíse indicated, o rg/wgbh/pages/frontline/ melrdown. iran ians-we re-be h ind -a-wave-of-cybe ra nacks.

18 '1nside me Meltdown,' Fronrline, PBS, Feb. 17, aUmaterial in mis subseetion is drawn from Rose . htmlzpagew antedeall: john Markoff an d Dav id 3S Quoted in 1bid.; B. Wayne Blanc hard , "Ame r­ 2009 , w w w .pbs. o rg!wgb h/ pages/fro ntline / E. Sange r, "In a Comp uter Worrn, a Possible Bib­ ica n Civil Defense 1945-1984: The Evolutío n meltd ow n/view/. lical Clue ," Tbe New YOrk Times, Sept. 30, 2010, o f Prograrns a nd Polici es," Federa l Emergen cy 19 Pere r Katel, "Arge ntina: me Post-Mon ey Econ­ www.nytimes.com/2010/09/30/world/middleeast/ Management Ag ency, 1 985, pp. 8-9, hnp:/ /rrain omy,' Time, Fe b. 5, 2002, www.tim e.com/time/ ing.fem a.gov/EMI web/edu/docsjBlan chard%20­ world/a rticle/0,8599,199474,OO.h lml; j on j erer, 3Owonn .h trnl?pagewanted=al~ EUen Nakashirna and joby Warrick, "Sruxnet was work of U.S. %20A merican%20Civil%20D efense%201945­ "As Crime Soars, ArgentínesAlter Outgoíng Ways," and Israelí experts, officials say," Tbe Washing­ 1be Wash ington Post, j an . 27, 2003, p. A11.

1984.pdf. ton Post, june 2, 2012, hnp :// anid es.washington 36 "H ísro rical Natio na l Populatio n Estimares: 20 Pamela Dunca n, "Irish experience 'cara­ posi.com/2012-06-01/world/35459494_ 1_n u july 1, 1900 ro july 1, 1999," U.S. Census Bu­ srro phic cha nge in circu rnstances' due ro eco­ c1ear-program-sUlxnet-senior-irani an-officials. reau, 2000,www.ceI1SllS.gov/poplllation!estimares/ nomi c crisis," Irisb Times, May 14, 2013, W\·VW .

2S ''Eleetric Grid Vu lnera bility: Indusuy Responses natíon/ popclockest.txt. irishrimes.comjnews/socia l-affairs/iris h-experi Reveal Security Gaps ,' op. cit.; pp. 3, 15.

37 Paul R Ehrlích , Tbe Population Bomb ( 1968); e nce-carasrrophic-change-in-circumsrances-d ue­ 26 "APPA: Recenr cy be rsec uríry r e pon 'a d ís­ Paul R Ehrlich and Ann e H . Ehrlich, "The Pop­ ro -economi c-crisis-l. 1392709; "Ireland's eco­ tractíon,' " SmartGrld Today, May 28, 2013, www. ulation 80mb Revisited ," Electronic fou rnal o/ nomic crisis: how d id ir happen and w hat is smartgridtoday.com/articles/9487-appa~ma rkey­ Sustainable Detelopmeru, 2009, www.popula being done abour it?" European Co mmission , wa xman-cybe rsec urity-reporr-a-distractio n. tionmed ia.org!wp-conten t/ u ploa ds / 2009l07/ . j un e 12, 2012, hnp:// ec.eu ropa.e u/irelan dikey­ 27 "Sen. jeff Bíngarnan Holds a Hea ríng o n Population-Boml:>-Revisited-Paul-Ehrlich-20096.pcIf. . e u-policy-areas /econo01y/irela nds-eco nomic­ Cybe r Securiry and the Elecrric G rid,' Senate 38 "Americas Doom Industry, Paul Boyer (inter­ crisis/i ndex_e n .hrm.

Co mm ittee 0 0 Energyand Natural Resources , view), Fro ntline, (background for p rogram aired 21 For backgro und, see jennifer Weeks , "Clí­ j uly 17, 20 12, CQ Tra ns criptions, www.gpo.

Nov. 22, 1998), www. pbs .org/wgbh/pages/ front mate Change,' CQ Resea rcher, june 15, 2013; gov/ fdsys/pkglCHRG-112Shrg75809lhtinVCHRG­ line/ shows/ apocal ypse/e xpl a nation/ do o m Reed Karaim, "C límate Change,' CQ Global Re­ ind ustry.hrml. searcber, Feb . 1, 2010, pp: 25-50; Cha na n Trgay, 112shrg75809 .hrm .

28 1bid.

39 Q uoted in "Apoca lypse" Frontline, Nov. 22, "Extreme Wearher," CQ Researcher,Sept 9, 2011, 1998 , WW\V. pbs.org/wgbh/pages/ frontl íne/ pp. 733-756. "l.IS. Energy Sector Vulnerabilities . 29 Quered in Philip Lamy, Millennium Rage.

Su ruiualists, White Supremacists, a nd tbe shows/apocalypse/etc/script hrrnl; Peter App le­ ro Cüma re Cha nge and Extrem e Wea me r," borne, "jerr)r Falwe ll, Lead ing Religiou s Con­ U.S. De p artment of Energy, july 2013, hnp:// Do omsday Propbecy ( 996) , p. 66 . se rva tive, D les,' Tbe Ne w York Times, May 15, e nergy.gov/sites/ prodlfilcs/2013/07/ f2/201307 1 30 Ken j orgustin , "Survival Rerreat Safe Disrance 2007, www. nytimes.com/2007/05/ 15/obimaries/ 6 -Energy% 20Secro r%20Vu lne rabi lirie s%2 0 from City," Modern Sunnoal Blog, july 26, 2010, hnp://mod ernsurvivalblog .com/retreat-líving/ 15cnd-falwelJ.htmJ?p agewan ted=all.

Rep ort .pdf.

Sllrvival-rerreat-safe -d isrance-fro m-city/.

40 Q uote d in Wayn e King, "Fearing Soc iery's 22 Nico le Perlroth and David E. Sange r, "Na­

31 Scott L. , "A Rural Community Retrea t ," post ColIapse , 'Surv ivalists' Cach e Goods,' Tbe Neto tions Buy ing as Hackers SeU Flaw s in Com­

York Times, j an. 15, 1981, www.n ytim cs.com/ purer Cod e,' 7be New York Times , j uly 13, 2013, o n Surv ivalBlog. com, May 15, 201 2, www.sur

198 1/01/1 5/ us/feariing-so c iery-s-collapse -su r www.nyti mes.co m/2013/07/14/world/europe/ viva Iblo g .co m/201 2/ 05/ a-rura I-commun ity­

vívalísts-cache-goods.htrnl. narions-buying-as-hackers-seU-compurer- flaws. retreat-by-scott -l.html .

32 Simon Sebag Montefíore, [erusalem: Tbe 41 Don o berdorfer.rU.S. Approves Pla n ro

html'pagewant edeall .

Relocate Cítízens in Nuc lea r War Threat ,' Tbe

23 j ohn Arqu illa, "Panetta's Wro ng About a Biograpby (2011) , pp. 7 , 49.

Cybe r 'Peal'] Harbor,' " Foreign Policy, Nov. 19, 33 Ton y Long, "Aug. 29, 1949: First Soviet Wash ingto n Post, March 30, 1982 , p . Al.

2012, www.foreignpolicy.com/anicles/2012/ 11/ Ato rnic Test Stun s West," Wired, Aug . 29, 2007, ·j2 "Reaga n's Star Wars ," Co ld War : A Brie f

History, Atomic Archive, undated, www.aromic

19/ panettas_wro n8-abouc a_eYber_pea rl_harbor.

WWVi. wired .com/science/ di sco verie s/ne ws/

2007/08/d ayintec h_0829 .

arc h ive .com/H istory/ coldwar/page 20. shtml ;

24 Th o m Shanker and David E. Sange r, "Iran's

Wars,- Intem et Movie Data Base , undat ed,

www.imdb.com/title/UOO76759/.

43 Quoted in Sreven R \\7eisma n, "Reaga n Pro­

poses New Way to Block Missiles ," 7be New

Peter Katel is a Researcher contributing writer who York Times, March 24, 1983, hnp:// parrn ers.ny

previously reported on Haiti and Latin America for Time and times.com/library/ nationaVscience/032483missüe­

Newsweek andcovered the Southwest for newspapers in New det:-speec h.hrml.

Mexico. He has received severaJ joumaJism awards, including 44 Barry Sussman "Free ze Support Grows

Slightly Alter War Sho w:' 7b e Wash ington Post,

the Bartolomé Mitre Award for coverage of drug trafficl<ing, Nov. 23, 1983, P Al.

from the Inter-American Press Association. He holds an AB. 45 Q uored in WiIliam j. Broa d, "Econo mic Col­

in university studies from the University of New Mexico. His re­ la pse Tied tO Arom War," 7b e New York Times ,

cent reports include "Mexico's Future" and "3D Printing:' june 21,1987, v.'WW.nylimes .co m/1 987/06/ 21/

"srar

About the Author ca

688

CQ Researcher

us/ economic-colla pse-tied-to-arom-war,html> pagewantedea lI&src=pm .

46 Q uoted in Phil McCom bs, "Me et the Whil ­ neys: They're Ready," Tbe Washington Post, Disasterpreparer.com, hrtpz/ dísasterpreparer.corn. Website o f p repper Arthur T. Bradley, j an. 18, 1984, p. Bl. co ntaíns detailed informatío n o n types o f disasters and how lO p repare for each.

47 Peter Steinfels, "Revelation : Scrípt for Cult ,' Federal Emergeney Management Ageney, Ready Campaign, FEMA/DHS, 500 Tbe New York Times, Ap ril 25, 1993, www.ny C S!., s.w, Suite 714, Was hinglo n , D C 20472; 800-62 1-3362; re ady@fema.go v. Pre ­ limes.com/1993/04/25/ us/ reve lalion-sc rip l-for­ pa redness síte m ainta ined by FEMA a nd the D epartrn ent of Homeland Secu rity; cu lt-apoca lypse .htrnl: j írn YardJey, "A Special incl udes ad vice o n building a n e merge ncy 'kit.

Counse l Finds Government Fault.less al Waco ," Fernando Aguirre blog, httpi/ / ferfal.blogspot.com. Blog ma intained by Argentine Tbe Ne w York Times, july 22, 2000, www.n y pre p per, who writes on personal protection and offers preppe r-related product reviews. limes.com/200ü/ 07/2 2/ us/ a-special-counsel-finds­ government-faultless-at-waco.htrnl, jim McGee National Center for Disaster Preparedness, Mailman School o f Public Health, and William Claibome , "The Transformation of Co lumbia Universiry, 215 W. 12; th St., 3rd Floor, New Yo rk, NY 10027; 646-845 ­ the Waco 'Messiah,' " Tbe Washi ngton Post, May 2300 ; www.ncdp.mailman .colum bi a .e du/ind ex.html. Uní ve rsíry th ink ta n k that pro­ vid e s access lO wi d e varíery of research o n catastrophic events a nd recovery.

9, 1993, p. Al. 48 joh n Kifner, "The Gun Netwo rk : McVeigh's Public Health Matters blog, U.S. Ce n te rs for Disease Cont ro l a n d Preventíon, World," 7be New York Tim es,july 5, 1995, www. . 1600 Clifton Ro ad, Atlarua, CA 30333; 800-232-6348; hrtpz/blogs.cdc.gov/ pu blichealth nyt im es .co m/1 99 5/ 07/ 0 S/us/ gun-network­ matters/ category/ preparedn ess/. Blog that cove rs wide varíery of p repare d ness mcveigh-s-world -s¡jed al-rep ort-bomb-suspea­ to p ics, incl u ding d ísaster m ea sures for famiJies of c hild re n wi th special needs. fell-home-riding-gun.htmJ?pagewant ed=alJ&src Zombie Squad, P.O. Box 63 124 , S!. Louis , 1\10.; www. zomb iehunters.org. Prepper =pm; Leonard Zeskind, "T entacles of Hale site that provides access lo discussion forums on wide varíery o f prepared ness matrers, From a Racist's Legacy,' Los Angeles Times, Aug. 5, 2002, Pan 2, p. 11. nado-a lley.htrnl ypagew antede all , Mann y Fer­

57 Eric Lípton, el al. , "Breakdowns Markcd j'at.1l 49 Quoted in Serge Kov aleski, "A Show of nandez , "O klahorna Cam p us , Ravage d by a

From Hurricane !O Anarchy," Tbe New York Times, Streng th for MiJ itia Movernent,' Tbe Wash­ To ma do, Draws Atrentíon to Sto rm Shelters,"

Sept.Tl, 2005, \vww.nyt imes.com/200S/09/11/ ington Post, Sept. 24, 1995, p. A6.

7b e New York Times, j un e 3, 20 13, www.ny

natíonal/ natio nalspecial/l l res po nse .html?page­ 50 Iauríe Garrett, "Ru naway Diseases; And lile limes.co m/2013/ 06/ 03/ us/ o klah oma-campu s­

wa ntedeall.

Human Hand Behind Thern," Ioreig n Ajfa irs, shows-value-of-slorm-shelters .htmJ.

58 Quoted in Spe ncer Hsu, "Katrina Report j anuary-February, 1998; laurie Garrerr,"The Next 66 WiIJiam Simpson, "Prep per Power! The Ad­

Spreads Blame,' 7be Washington Post, Feb. 12, Pandemic?" Foreign Affairs, july-August 2005. vantage of Hydroel ectricity," Prepper fournal,

2006, w ww.washingtonpost.com/ w p-dyn/ con 51 For background, see Kathy Koch, "Y2K DiJem­ ApriJ 4, 2013, www.theprepperjournal.corn/

len t!article/ 2006/02/11/AR2006021101409.htmJ. ma,' G:Q Researdier, Feb. 19, 1999, pp. 137-160.

2013/04/04/pre p pe r-powerl

59 Garrett, "The Next Pandemic?" op. cit., p. 3.

52 Bam ab y J. Feder, "Doo rnsaye r Pu sh es y tdr 67 "U.S. Energy secto r Vulnerab iJities lO Cli­

2000 Panic Button With O ld Data," 7b e New 60 Quoted in Melody McD on ald , "Da llas-Fort mate Change," op. cit., pp. 2-3.

Wor!h's 'mod ern survivalists' are read y for lay­ York Times, Aug . 22, 1999, p. A31. o ffs - o r war,' Fort Worth Star-Telegram, 68 "Clíma te Cha nge Im pacts o n the Electric

53 Bamaby J. Feder, "Smooth 2000 T ransi tio n Power Systern in rhe Weslem Un ited States,'

Ap ril S, 2009, p. Bl. Pu zzles Expe rts," 17Je New York Times, j an. 9, Argonne Natíonal Lab,undated, wwwdis.anl.gov/

61 Quo ted in j ack Chang, "Maya Prophecy 2000, p. A18, www.nyt imes.com/ 2000/ 01/091 news/WECCClimal eChan ge.hlml.

Spa rks Dread, Celeb ratio n Worl dw ide ," Dec. us/ smootll-2000-1ransilion-p uzzles-experts.htmJ. 69 Quoted in T. L. Stanle y, "The end is com­

54 "H istory of rhe pre p per," we b síte discus­ 11, 2012, htl p:/ /bigstory.ap.org/artlc1 e/mayan­ ing . . . lO prim e-lime TV," Cbicago Tribu ne ,

pro phecy-sparks -dread-celebration-world wide . sion thread, Suroival Cache, Feb. 10, 2012, july 30 , 2012, p. Cl.

62 tua ; Patrio ticxtab ll ist, "Re: Mor e Dr ou ght ," www.survivalcach e .co m/forums/ showthread.

70 Ibid. ph p?I 214-The-histo ry -o t~ l he- pre p pe r.

More Drought thread , American Preppers Net­ 55 Chuck Raasch , "For 'p rep pe rs,' eve ry da y

work , Aug . 10, 2012, www.arnericanp reppers

co uld be doo msday," USA Today, Nov. 13, 2012, vo/ww.u sal o day.co m!slory/ne ws/nal ion/ 2012/ 11/1 2/ for-preppe rs-eve ry-day-eould-be-doo ms da y/ 1701151/.

56 Lise Olsen, "5 years afte r Katrina, storm's dealh 1011 remains a myslery," 7be Houston Chronicle, Aug. 30, 2010, www.chron.com/ news/nalion-world/article/ 5-ye-ars-after-Katrina­ slo rm-s-d ea th ~loJJ - re mai ns- 1;89464. p h p . For backgroun d , see Pamela M. Pra h , "Disas le r Preparedness," CQ Researche1~ No v. 18, 200S, pp. 98 1-1004.

networ k.riet!v iewtopi c.php?f=634&1=34798&p= 307748&h ilil=c1ima le+c hange#p307748.

63 "U S. Energy Sector Vulnerabílitíes lO Climate Change,' op. cit., p. i.

64 For background ,see jennifer Wee ks , "Coasta l

Develo pm enl, " CQ Researcher, Feb. 22, 2013,

p p . 181-204.

65 Q uo led in j ohn Schwanz, "Amid Sloml Re­

co very, Life-and-Dealh Sto ries From School:

Why No Safe Room lO Run To?" 7be New York

Times, May 22, 20 13, W\v w. nyti mes.com/2013/

OS/22/ us/she lle r-req ü irements-res isled -in -lo r

Rose, op. cit. (Kind le edition, no page hum­

be rs not ed).

72 "Zo mb ie Preparedness," u.s. Centers for Dis­

ease Control a nd Preve ntío n, Sept. 27, 2012,

www.cdc.gov/ phpr/ zombi es.htm.

73 'Whal is Zombie Sq uad?" undated, W\VW.

zombiehunters.org/whatiszs. php.

74 Kenji E. Kushida , 'j apan's Fukushima Nuclear

Disaster: Narralive , Ana lysis a nd Re co mm en­

da tions ," Waller H. Sho renslei n Asia-Pacific

Resea rch Cenler, Stanford University, 2012, hn p:l/

iis-db.sta nfo rd .ed u/pubs/23762I.Japa nsJ uku

shi ma_N uclear_Disasle r.pdf.

71

Aug. 2, 2013

689

Bibliograp----=l-hy_----'--­ Selected Sources

Merced Sun-Star, May 12,2013, www.rnercedsunstar.com/ 2013/05/12/3004429/preppers-ready-f{)r,.the-end-of.html.

A California newspaper provides an introduction ro the prepper movement.

Books

Aguirre, Fernando, Surviving tbe Economic Collapse,

self-published, 2009.

An Argentine prepper now living in Ireland distills lessons

from living through an economic implosion in Argentina.

Johnson, Alyssa, ''Weather preppers," Times Record News (Wichita Falls, Texas), April 14,2013, www.timesreeord . Bradley, Arthur T., Dlsaster Preparedness for EMP At­ news.eom/news/2013/apr/14jweather-preppersj?partner= tacks and Solar Storms, self-published, 2012.

RSS. A prepper with a day job as an electrical engineer at NASA

A newspaper in a cíty hit by a deadly tomado in 1979 re­ explains the science of natural and man-made disasters strik­ ports on a clisaster-preparedness expo organized byan inter­ ing the power grid and how to survive them.

faith group of ministers.

Redlener, Irwin, Americans at Risk: W1:ry We Are Not Kyle, Sarah Jane, "Red Cross seeks to bring emergency Prepared for Megadisasters and Wbat We Can Do Now, readiness into the norm with preparedness parties," Tbe Knopf, 2006.

Coloradan (Fort Collins, Colo.), April 3, 2013, www.eolo

A physícían who is one of the country's leading disaster­

recovery experts warns that individuals, along with govern­

ment agencies at a11 levels, have not taken measures to get

ready for sudden catastrophe.

rado~eom/article/20130403/NEWS01/304030058/Red­

Cross-seeks-bring-emergency-readiness-into-nonn-prepaied ness-parties.

In a state beíng hit hard by major forest fires, prepared­ ness experts are using Tupperware Party-style eventsto teach Rose, Kenneth D., One Nation Underground: Tbe Fall­ basics on disaster readiness. out Sbelter in American Culture, New York University

Press, 2001.

O'Brien, Keith, "How to Survive Societal COllapse in A hístory professor at California State University at Chico Suburbia," Tbe New York Times Magazine, Nov. 16, 2012, chronieles fallout shelter constructíon duringthe Cold War. www.nytimes.eom/2012/11/18/magazinejhow-to-survíve­ societal-collapse-in-suburbia.html?pagewanted=all.

Articles The magazine reports on the prepper movement's jetti­ soning of association with survivalism.

Arquilla, John, "Panetta's Wrong About a 'Cyber-Pearl Harbor,' " Foreign Policy, Nov. 19, 2012, www.foreign Walker, jesse, "Stop Demonizing Preppers," Reason.com, policy.com/articles/2012/11/19/panettas_wro~abouCa_ Feb. 20, 2013, http://reason.eom/archives/2013/02/20/ cyber_pearCharbor. stop-dernonizing-preppers.

A professor of defense analysis at the U.S. Naval Post­ A writer for a libertarian magazine points a finger at arti­ graduate School challenges the former defense secretary's eles that, she argues, miscast preppers as extremist misfits, \Xforld War II metaphor but agrees that cyber-attacks are on ignoring the movement's polítícal and socjal d íversíty. the increase and pose a threat.

Reports Baldwin, Jonathan, "Disaster Proof Your Internet," In The Tank blog, New America Foundation, Feb. 8, 2013, http://inthetank.newamerica.nctjblog/2013/02/disaster­ proof-your-internet.

A field analyst for the centrist foundation's Open Technol­ ogy Instítute reports on how a Brooklyn-based Internet net­ work remained operational during a massíve storm.

Dutton, Audrey, "Disaster preparation ís a growing mar­ ket for sorne Idaho businesses," Tbe Idabo Statesman, Feb. 17, 2013, www.idahostatesman.eom/2013/02/17/ 2455923/catastrophe-a-growing-market.html.

A rura l" state w íth a strong Mormon tradition is seeing a boom in preparedness-supply busínesses, Idaho's leading newspaper reports.

Fletcher, Ed, a 'Preppers' ready for the end of the world,"

690

CQ Researcher

"Electrie Grid Vulnerability: Industry Responses Reveal Security Gaps," staffs of U.S. Reps. Edward J. Markey, D-Mass., and Henry A. Waxmao., D-Calif., May 21, 2013, http://markey.house.gov/sites/markey.house.gov/files/docu ments/Markey"/o20Grid%20Report_05.21.13.pdf.

A survey of a small segment of U.S. electrícity providers shows weak defenses against hacker assaults and other auacks.

"U.S. Energy Sector Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Extreme Weather," U.S. Department of Energy, July . 2013, http://energy.gov/sites/prod/f"Iles/2013/07/f2/20130716­ Energy%20Sector%20Vulnerabilities%20Report.pdf.

A detailed examination of the energy industry shows strains posed by clirnate change and weáther events, the depart­ rnent concludes, It urges massive investrnent in energy in­ frastructure to strengthen the system.

The Next Step_:_

Additional Articles from Current Periodicals

Disaster Scenarios Carrington, Damian, "Carb ón Bubb1e Will P1unge the World into Another Financial Crisis - Report," Tbe Guardian,April 18,2013, www.guardian.co.uk/environ ment/2013/apr/19/carbon-bubb1e-f"mandal-crash-crisis.

Experts warn that an overvaluatíon of fossil fuels could lead to an econorn íc crisis.

Zirnmer, Ben, "How to Talk Líke a Doomsday Prepper," Tbe Boston Globe, Dec. 30, 2012, www.bostonglobe.com/ ideas/2O12/12/30jhow-taIk-like-doomsday-prepper/n5P4 CeiU4Hj7QB09k3SygN/story.htmI. Preppers have developed a repertoire of survívor slang such as KlSS (kee p it simple, stupid) and a Good ("get out of Dodge") kit.

Stockpiling Lovett, Richard, "What if the Biggest Solar Storm on Record Happened Today?," National Geograpbic News, March 2, 2011, http://news.nationalgeographic.com/ news/2011/03/11 0302-solar-f1ares-5un~0rms-earth-<langer­ carrington-event-scíence/.

Solar actív íry in the next couple of years could creare dís­ ruptive electrícal disturbances, scíentísts say.

Surnmers, Juana, "NewtGingrinch Warns EMP Could End it All," Politico, June 19, 2013, www.polrtico.com/ story/2013/06/electromagnetic-pulse-newt-gingrich-emp­ attack-93002.htm1.

Former Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich ad­ dressed the Electromagnetíc Pulse Caucus on the danger of EMPs to Ameríca's power grid and electronícs.

Emergency Preparedness Cooper, Max, "After the Fall: Local "Preppers" Prepare for the Worst," Mountain Xpress.com, Dec, 19, 2012, www.mountainx.com/article/47440.

Ashvílle, N.C., res ídents share tips on how to "prepare to live without systerns ."

Ellis, BIake, "My Doomsday Tab: $130K 'o n Bunkers, Guns and More," CNN Money, March 13, 2012, http:// money.cnn.com/2012/03/13/pf/doomsday-cost/índex.htm.

Some preppers have spent thousands of dolJars preparing for doomsday.

Kirchner, Lauren, "Stock Up Now Before It's Too Late," S1ate, Dec. 3, 2012, www.slate.oorn/articles/life/food/2012/ 12/shelCreliance_survival~ourmecand_survivalism_s_

new_softer_sell.htm1.

Companies are cropping up inthe United States to supply survívalísts w íth a wide range of emergency-preparedness products.

Young, Robín, "Mitt Romney's Faith Draws Atteotion to Mormon Food Storage," Here and Now, WBUR radio piece and article, March 15, 2012, http://hereandnow. wbur.org/2012/03/15/romney-mormon-food The Church of jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints encourages Mormons to stock a three-month supply of food and pro­ vides emergency relief in disasters through íts network of bishops' storehouses.

Greene, Richard Al1en, "Readyfor a Zombie Apoai.lypse?

CDC Has Advice," CNN, May 19, 2011, www.cnn.com/ 2011/HEALTH/05/19/zombie.warning/index.htmI. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention uses a novel ploy to ·inform the public on disaster preparedness.

CITING

Preppers

vary, so please check wíth your instructor or professor.

Feuer, Alan, "The Preppers Next Door," The New York Times, Jan. i6, 2013, www.nytimes.comj2013/01/27/ny regionjthe-doomsday-preppers-of-new-york.htmI?page wanted=all.

New York Cíty has a prepper commun íry that's large , di­ verse and growíng.

MlA STYLE

Murphy, Tim, "PreppersAre Getting Ready for the Barack­ alypse," Motber Jónes, JanuaryjFebruary 2013, www.mother jones.com/politics/2012/11/preppers-survivalist-dooms­ day-obama. .

Presídent Obama's second term has many preppers fear­ ing the worst and rampíng up their preparedness efforts,

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