State of the 2016 Philippine Climate by Jan-Daniel Belmonte

State of the 2016 Philippine Climate

Editors Rodel Lasco1 and Vicente Malano2

Editorial Advisory Board Flaviana Hilario2, Edna Juanillo2 and Perpilili Vivienne Tiongson1

Production Team Oscar M. Lopez Center

Rafaela Jane Delfino, Marco Macapagal, Jan-Daniel Belmonte and Arianna Lim

PAGASA

Thelma Cinco, Rosalina de Guzman, Analiza Solis, Wilmer Agustin, and Christian Mark Ison

State of the 2016 Philippine Climate This is the third in a series of annual reports entitled State of the Philippine Climate. Available at: www.omlopezcenter.org

This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder provided acknowledgement of the source is made. The Oscar M. Lopez Center for Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management Foundation, Inc. (Oscar M. Lopez Center) would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as a source. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the Oscar M. Lopez Center and PAGASA. ISSN: (Non-Print) 2545-9406; (Print) 2545-9392

SUGGESTED CITATION:

The Oscar M. Lopez Center for Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management Foundation, Inc. (Oscar M. Lopez Center) and Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). State of the 2016 Philippine Climate. April 2018. Available at www.omlopezcenter.org

PUBLISHED BY:

The Oscar M. Lopez Center for Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management Foundation, Inc. 6th Floor, Tower 3, Rockwell Business Center 100 Ortigas Avenue, Pasig City 1604, Metro Manila Philippines

Language: English

ÂŠ Copyright 2018 by the Oscar M. Lopez Center for Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management Foundation, Inc. (Oscar M. Lopez Center) and Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

About this publication The State of the Philippine Climate (SPC) is an annual report that provides a summary of observations of the country’s essential climate variables, as well as notable climatic and weather events. This publication is based on data provided by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), and other national and international institutions. The primary goal of this annual climate report is to efficiently disseminate necessary climate information that can aid policy makers, local government units, and other stakeholders in their decision making processes towards science-based climate change adaptation and disaster risk management. Effective communication of climate information to relevant stakeholders and the general public is one key step towards building a climate-resilient society. Such information allows the authorities to better visualize the implications and make informed decisions that could help the general public adapt to a changing climate. In this year’s edition, the SPC gives a brief but comprehensive overview of climate indicators (e.g. temperature, rainfall, tropical cyclones, El Niño event) and the patterns, changes, and trends representing the country’s climate in 2016. Other epiphenomena stemming from weather- and climate-related hazards such as floods, landslides, and drought that transpired in 2016 are also presented.

Online version of the previous SPC issues* have been changed as follows: a. State of the Philippine Climate 2015 has been renamed as State of the Philippine Climate: An Overview b. State of the Philippine Climate 2016 has been renamed as State of the 2015 Philippine Climate These changes to the titles have been made to more accurately reflect the year covered in the report rather than the year of publication. *Available at www.omlopezcenter.org

Contents i

Messages

Key Findings

Temperature

Rainfall

2015–2016 El Niño Episode

Monsoon

Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Trends

Climate Anomalies and Notable Events

Acknowledgements

PAGASA

Oscar M. Lopez Center

Rose Barba

Gerry Bagtasa, PhD

Rex Abdon

Carlos Manuel Tito Santos, PhD

iii

Messages The State of the Philippine Climate is a series of annual reports providing a brief but comprehensive update on the country’s key climate indicators and notable climate anomalies and weather events. These are based on data collected by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), and other institutions. Sharing the same vision, the Oscar M. Lopez Center and our state weather bureau, PAGASA, collaborated to develop this series of annual reports presenting relevant climate information and weather observations. It is our aim that it will aid in the decision-making processes of local and national executives in government and private sectors. On behalf of the entire Oscar M. Lopez Center, we are now proud to present the State of the 2016 Philippine Climate, the third issue in the series. This report offers a snapshot of the 2016 climateand weather-related events, including changes in temperature and rainfall, as well as El Niñoinduced drought, monsoonal activity, and tropical cyclones along with their socioeconomic impacts. Our hope is that, through this publication, we can contribute scientific knowledge on the everchanging climate and provide insights into more effective ways to prepare for, cope with, and adapt to such climatic variabilities and change.

RODEL D. LASCO, Ph.D.

MARIANNE G. QUEBRAL

Scientific Director Oscar M. Lopez Center

Executive Director Oscar M. Lopez Center

Due to its geographic location, the Philippine archipelago is vulnerable to the impacts of climatic events, such as tropical cyclones, monsoon rains, ENSO, droughts, and temperature and rainfall extremes. As the Philippine climate continues to show a warming trend, these events could become more frequent and intense, inflicting greater socioeconomic impacts on vulnerable communities. In this issue of the State of the Philippine Climate, we look back at the trends of the country’s climate as well as the impacts of various climate-related hazards that were experienced in 2016. We hope that the Filipinos, well-equipped with the knowledge on Philippine climate, may be able to plan, prepare, and take appropriate emergency measures to mitigate the repercussions of the changing climate.

VICENTE B. MALANO, Ph.D. Administrator PAGASA

Key Findings WHAT HAPP E NE D I N 201 6 ?

Temperature

Rainfall

2016 is recorded as the second hottest year in the Philippines since the 1950s, with an annual mean temperature of 28.1°C, 0.6°C above the 1981-2010 climatological normal.

Due to a persisting strong El Niño event, most parts of the country, particularly in Mindanao, received below-normal rainfall in the first half of 2016, causing drought occurrences in many regions. Above-normal rainfall conditions were eventually experienced by the end of the year due to weak La Niña conditions.

ENSO

Monsoon

The 2015-2016 El Niño episode was one of the strongest on record. It started in March 2015, reached its peak during November-December-January season and lasted until June 2016. This El Niño event impacted about 396,000 hectares of agricultural areas and caused almost PhP 10 billion worth of agricultural damages across the country.

The presence of several Low Pressure Areas intensified the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) in August 2016, causing moderate to heavy rains over NCR, Ilocos Region, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Western Visayas, and Negros Island, which further resulted in flooding and landslide incidents in these areas. The Habagat affected around 1.3 million people, claimed a total of 23 lives, and caused damages of about PhP 465 million.

Tropical Cyclones The persisting El Niño event caused fewer but more intense tropical cyclones (TCs). Of the 14 TCs that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in 2016, seven made landfall and eight were considered extreme (>150 kph), including TY Ferdie, STY Lawin, and TY Nina. A total of almost 5.8 million people were affected by the combined impacts of 2016 TCs, which also claimed 44 lives and inflicted about PhP 33.4 billion worth of damages.

Climate Trends The Philippine climate is characterized by relatively high temperature and abundant rainfall. In general, the country has four major climatic types based on rainfall distribution.

Table 1. A comparison of 2016 temperature, rainfall, and tropical cyclone observations with the 1971-2000 and 1981-2010 climatological normals

Climatological Normals*

Climate Variables

2016

1971–2000

1981–2010

Annual Average Mean Temperature

27.4°C

27.5 °C

28.1°C

Annual Average Minimum Temperature

23.4°C

23.6 °C

24.2°C

Annual Average Maximum Temperature

31.3°C

31.4 °C

31.9°C

Annual Average Rainfall

965 – 4,064 mm

960 – 4,465 mm

634 – 4,707 mm

Annual Average number of TCs

19-20

Monthly Average Temperature

25.5°C (January, coldest) 28.3°C (May, warmest)

25.7 °C (January, coldest) 28.5 °C (May, warmest)

26.2°C (January, coldest) 29.4°C (May, warmest)

* The climatological normals are based on the 30-year averages of different climate variables during 1971-2000 and 1981-2010. Such normal values are used as reference to assess climate events and establish climatic trends. In this issue, we used 1981-2010 as the baseline period for most trend analysis unless stated otherwise.

Figure 1a. Four climate types of the Philippines

Figure 1b. Location Map of PAGASA Synoptic

based on Modified Coronas Classification System

Stations

For more information on the Philippine climate, see the Philippine Climate Change Assessment: Working Group 1 Report on The Physical Science Basis at www.omlopezcenter.org

Temperature The country’s annual mean, minimum (nighttime), and maximum (daytime) temperature records showed a continuous warming trend since the 1950s.

ANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURE

Figure 2. Top 10 warmest years on record in the Philippines

Top 10 Warmest Years in the Philippines

from 1951 to 2016

ANOMALIES The trend in global and surface temperature continued to increase in 2016, with 2016 as the warmest year on record at the global scale. In the Philippines, 2016 ranked as the second warmest year since 1950 and tied with 2010 having a mean temperature anomaly of 0.6°C. 1998 remained as the hottest year since 1950 and with a 0.8°C temperature anomaly (relative to 1981-2010 baseline period

1998 2016 2010 2015 2006 2012 1988 2007

Annual mean temperatures were found to be below normal from 1951 to 1986. And from 1987 onwards, annual mean temperatures have been generally above the 1981-2010 climatological normal.

2005 2001 0

Eight out of 10 warmest years on record occurred since 2000.

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Mean Temperature Anomaly (°C)

Data Source: PAGASA

Figure 3a. National annual mean temperature anomalies (relative to 1981-2010 baseline period) from 1951 to 2016. The dotted red line shows the five-year running average. 1.0

0.8

Annual Mean Temperature Anomaly (°C)

0.8

0.6

0.4 0.2 0.0

1951

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

2011

2016

-0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8

Mean Temperature Anomaly Five-Year Running Average 5-Year Running Average

-1.0

Data Source: PAGASA

MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES Minimum (nighttime) temperatures showed an increasing trend. Hotter-than-normal nighttime conditions were experienced in the past two decades. Minimum temperature observations from 1951 to 1994 were generally below normal. 1998 still has the highest nighttime temperature anomaly at 0.7 째C, followed by 2016 and 2006 in second at 0.6 째C. Maximum (daytime) temperatures exhibited a slightly increasing trend, but generally showed an interannual variability.

Figure 3b. Annual minimum temperature anomalies (relative to 1981-2010 baseline period) from 1951 to 2016. The dotted red line shows the five-year running average.

Annual Minimum Temperature Anomaly (째C)

1.0

0.7

0.8

0.6

0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2

1951

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

2011

2016

-0.4 Minimum Temperature Anomaly

-0.6

Five-Year Running Average 5-year Running Average

-0.8 -1.0

Data Source: PAGASA Figure 3c. Annual maximum temperature anomalies (relative to 1981-2010 baseline period) from 1951 to 2016. The dotted red line shows the five-year running average.

Annual Maximum Temperature Anomaly (째C)

1.0

0.8

0.8 0.6

0.5

0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2

1951

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

2011

2016

-0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0

Data Source: PAGASA

0.5

Maximum Temperature Anomaly

Five-Year Running Average 5-Year Running Average

Majority of PAGASA synoptic weather stations recorded hotter-than-normal nighttime and daytime temperatures in 2016. Sangley Point (Cavite), NAIA (Manila), Clark (Pampanga), and Tuguegarao had the highest nighttime temperature anomalies with more than 1.5Â°C above 1981-2010 climatological normal. Calayan, NAIA, Port Area (Manila), Malaybalay, Cotabato, Davao City, and General Santos City showed the highest daytime temperature anomaly of 1.0 to 1.5 Â°C. Calayan experienced colder-than-normal nighttime and warmer-than-normal daytime conditions.

Figure 4a. Annual minimum temperature anomalies

Figure 4b. Annual maximum temperature anomalies

for 2016 (relative to 1981-2010 baseline period) of

selected PAGASA Synoptic Stations

Rainfall Most parts of the country received below normal rainfall in the first half of 2016, primarily due to the strong El Niño event. Above normal conditions were experienced due to weak La Niña conditions by the end of the year. Most weather stations in Luzon and Visayas received total annual rainfall between 2,000 to 4,000 mm. Weather stations in Iba, Cubi Point, and Hinatuan recorded the highest amount of rainfall in 2016 Iba and Cubi Point stations in Zambales both received unusually high accumulated rainfall brought about by the Southwest Monsoon in August. Majority of the PAGASA weather stations in Mindanao received below normal rainfall in 2016 due to the occurrence of strong El Niño from early 2015 until the first half of 2016. The highest rainfall anomaly in 2016 was recorded in Iba weather station, while weather stations in Baguio, Infanta, Catbalogan, Guiuan, Cotabato, and Surigao had the lowest rainfall anomalies.

Figure 5a. Total accumulated rainfall for 2016

Figure 5b. Annual rainfall anomaly (relative to 19812010 baseline period) for 2016

MONTHLY RAINFALL From January to April 2016, most parts of Mindanao continuously received way below normal rainfall, hence the occurrence of drought conditions in the region. Below normal to way below normal rainfall conditions were also experienced in most parts of the country during this period. Rainfall conditions started to improve between May and August 2016 as the strong El Niño weakened and transitioned to neutral conditions. A weak La Niña episode occurred in the latter part of 2016, as shown by the pronounced above normal rainfall conditions observed in most parts of the country between September to December 2016.

Figure 6. Percentage of observed total monthly rainfall anomaly in 2016 relative to 1981-2010 baseline period. Blue colors represent areas with above normal (>120%) rainfall conditions, while green colors depict areas with near normal (81-120%) conditions. Areas with below normal (41-80%) conditions are in yellow, while areas under way below normal (≤40%) rainfall conditions are in red.

Climatological Extremes Highest and lowest daily temperatures and highest daily rainfall on record were broken in several PAGASA Synoptic stations in 2016.

Table 2. Daily temperature and rainfall records broken in selected PAGASA

Figure 7. Daily temperature and rainfall records broken

Synoptic Stations

in 2016

Weather Station

Clark

Coron

Cubi Point

Davao

General Santos

Guiuan

Hinatuan

Iba

Lumbia

Cebu

Malaybalay

NAIA

Sangley Point

Tuguegarao

Zamboanga City

Rainfall (mm)

Records Broken

Temp. (°C)

Date

34.6

2004-07-12

New

35.1

2016-07-27

Date

172.6

1990-11-13

New

180.8

2016-11-25

38.8

2013-05-07

287.6 2002-07-13

New

38.9

2016-05-04

432.5 2016-07-07

20.6

2004-11-15

New

20.5

2016-11-09

35.6

2009-10-06

New

35.9

2016-10-08

39.0

1988-04-15

New

39.4

2016-04-16

35.8

2009-09-01

211.4

2007-11-13

New

36.0

2016-09-03

213.0

2016-11-17

37.0

1992-08-28

New

37.2

2016-08-19

38.0

1993-05-11

New

39.2

2016-05-06

35.0

1988-01-26

96.0 1995-06-01

New

36.2

2016-01-08

124.2

34.6

1978-09-06

135.0 2012-07-08

New

35.6

2016-09-05

151.9 2016-07-02

36.2

1998-04-24

117.6

New

36.4

2016-04-15

135.4 2016-07-05

36.0

1991-07-06

New

36.4

2016-07-26

2012-02-27

2016-06-21

1952-07-25

36.5

New

45.8 2016-02-06

263.6

1913-07-28

New

275.4

2016-07-31

35.5

2010-02-28

New

36.2

2016-02-03

Data Source: PAGASA

LEGEND:

Legend Legend Legend HighestDaily DailyTemperature Temperature Highest Highest Daily Temperature

Daily Rainfall Temperature Highest Daily LegendHighest HighestDaily DailyRainfall Rainfall Highest

Highest Highest Daily Daily Rainfall Temperature and Rainfall Highest Daily Temperature and Rainfall Highest Daily Daily Rainfall Temperature and Rainfall Highest Highest HighestDaily DailyTemperature Temperature and Rainfall Highest Daily Temperature and Rainfall and Lowest Daily Temperature and Rainfall Highest DailyDaily Temperature and Rainfall and Lowest Temperature and Lowest Daily Temperature HighestDaily DailyTemperature Temperature and Rainfall Highest and Lowest Daily Temperature

and Rainfall and Lowest Daily Temperature

2015–2016 El Niño Event The 2015-2016 El Niño episode is considered to be among the strongest since the 1950s. It was officially declared in March 2015, peaked during the November-December-January season with an Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)* of 2.6°C, and ended in June 2016.

Figure 8a. Warm and cold phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation since 1950

2015-2016 2015-2016

1997-1998 1997-1998

2.5

Oceanic Niño Index (°C)

2 1.5 1 0.5 0

1950

-0.5

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

-1 -1.5 -2 -2.5

Data Source: CPC-NOAA (US) Figure 8b. Seasonal ONI and Chronology of PAGASA Advisory Issuances during the 2015-2016 Strong El Niño Event 3 2.5

1.5

LaNiña Niña La Neutral Neutral

1 0.5 0 -0.5

DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ

Oceanic Niño Index (°C)

Niño ElElNiño

2014

-1

2015

2016

-1.5

El Niño Watch (May 2014)

Dry Condition Advisory (Nov 2014)

El Niño Advisory No.1 (Mar 2015)

El Niño Advisories No. 2-16 (Apr 2015 – Jun 2016)

Final El Niño Advisory (Jul 2016)

Data Sources: CPC-NOAA (US) & PAGASA *ONI is used for identifying El Niño (warm) and La Niña (cool) events in the tropical Pacific. It is the running three-month mean SST anomaly for the Niño 3.4 region. Events are defined as five consecutive overlapping three-month periods at or above the +0.5 anomaly for warm (El Niño) events and at or below the -0.5 anomaly for cold (La Niña) events.

The Strong El NiĂąo event influenced the temperature pattern from 2015 to 2016. The country started to experience hotter-than-normal conditions in May 2015 and worsened during the last quarter of 2015. In 2016, positive mean temperature anomalies were recorded during the entire year, corroborating the global observations by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Figure 9. Monthly average temperature from 2015 to 2016 relative to 1981-2010 baseline period

30-Year Average (1981-2010)

Monthly Average Temperature (Â°C)

Monthly Average Temperature

29 28 27 26 25 24

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2015

2016

Data Source: PAGASA

LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURE Land Surface Temperature (LST) describes how warm or cold the Earth’s surface would feel to a person’s touch in a particular area. Lower-than-average LST was observed in most parts of the country in early 2015. As the El Niño episode started, conditions became hotter than normal across the country. Severe LST anomalies were observed during January to April 2016, particularly in Mindanao, where extensive drought conditions were experienced. Conditions slightly improved as the El Niño event transitioned to neutral, but higher-than-average LST persisted until the end of 2016.

Figure 10. Land surface temperature (LST) anomaly maps (0.05° or 5.6km spatial resolution) based on data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS*) on board Terra satellite from January 2015 to December 2016 with respect to the 2001-2010 average. Red colors represent areas with hotter-than-normal conditions; blue areas are colder than average; white areas are normal; and black areas indicate no data or lack of data, most likely due to extensive cloud cover.

January 2015

February 2015

March 2015

April 2015

May 2015

June 2015

July 2015

August 2015

September 2015

October 2015

November 2015

December 2015

January 2016

February 2016

March 2016

April 2016

May 2016

June 2016

July 2016

August 2016

September 2016

October 2016

November 2016

December 2016

*The MODIS MOD11C3 data product was retrieved from the online Data Pool, courtesy of the NASA Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center (LP DAAC), USGS/Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center, Sioux Falls, South Dakota, https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/data_access/data_pool.

MONTHLY AVERAGE RAINFALL Similar to the monthly average temperature, the monthly average rainfall pattern in 2016 was influenced by the strong El Niño event. Below-normal rainfall conditions were experienced from February to November 2015. Lower-than-average rainfall continued from January 2016 until the transition to neutral conditions in July 2016. From August to December 2016, wetter-than-normal conditions were experienced due to weak La Niña conditions and several TCs. Twelve out of 14 TCs, including powerful and destructive Super Typhoon Lawin (“Haima”) and Typhoon Nina (“Nock-Ten”), entered Philippine Area of Responsibility within the last five months of 2016.

Figure 11. Monthly average rainfall for 2015 and 2016 relative to 1981-2010 baseline period

30-year av erage (1981-2010)

Monthly Average Rainfall

400.0 350.0

Rainfall (mm)

300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2015

Data Source: PAGASA

2016

IMPACTS OF THE 2015-2016 EL NIÑO EPISODE According to the 2016 National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) Final Damage Report, the 2015-2016 El Niño episode impacted around 396,000 hectares of agricultural areas, leading to rice and corn production losses amounting to almost PhP 10 billion. The reported cost of damages were higher than those of the 1997-1998 El Niño, which completely damaged approximately 292,000 hectares of croplands and caused PhP 3 billion worth of agricultural damages (*Hilario et al., 2009).

Figure 12a. Total areas affected (in hectares) by the

Figure 12b. Total cost of damages (in millions, PhP)

2015-2016 Strong El Niño episode

due to the 2015-2016 Strong El Niño episode

*Hilario, F. D., de Guzman, R. G., Ortega, D., Hayman, P., & Alexander, B. (2009). El Niño Southern Oscillation in the Philippines: Impacts, Forecasts, and Risk Management. Philippine Journal of Development, 36(1), 9–34.

Monsoon The enhanced Southwest Monsoon poured significant amount of rainfall over western portions of Luzon and Visayas in August 2016.

SOUTHWEST MONSOON The Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) intensified due to the presence of several Low Pressure Areas (LPAs) in August 2016, bringing moderate to heavy rains over the National Capital Region, Ilocos Region, Southern Tagalog Region, Bicol Region, Western Visayas, and Negros Island. The Habagat affected a total 1,263,098 people and caused a total of 23 fatalities. The Habagat also caused damages amounting to almost PhP 465 million, of which 64% was agricultural damage and 36% was infrastructure damage.

Figure 13a. Total population affected by the

Figure 13b. Fatalities due to the Southwest Monsoon

Southwest Monsoon event in 2016

event in 2016

Tropical Cyclones A total of 14 Tropical Cyclones (TCs) entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) between June and December 2016, which is below the long-term average of 19-20 TC frequency per year. Such low TC frequency but high TC intensity may be attributed to the persisting strong El Niño event.

Table 3. List of TCs that entered the PAR in 2016.

TC #

TC Type

Local Name

Int’l Name

Date

Highest Recorded Mean Max Max Gust Sustained sea level winds/gusts pressure Gust (hPa) (kph) Station Date, Time (kph)

Highest Recorded 24-hr Rainfall RF (mm)

Station

Date

58.6

Port Area

26-Jun

Ambo

June 26-27

1004

Butchoy

Nepartak

July 5-8

220/255

925

Basco

7-Jul, 380.5 12:33 PM

Subic Bay

7-Jul

STS

Carina

Nida

July 29 Aug 1

105/120

982

100

Calayan

31-Jul, 285.6 7:00 PM

Sinait

31-Jul

Dindo

Lionrock

Aug 24-28

160/195

958

121.8

STS

Enteng

Namtheun

Sep 1

100/130

984

123.8

Basco

1-Sep

Ferdie

Meranti

Sep 11-14

220/255

925

252

Basco

13-Sep, 11:50 PM

268.9

Basco

13-Sep

Gener

Malakas

Sep 13-17

175/210

948

67.0

San Jose

15-Sep

Helen

Megi

Sep 24-28

160/195

958

115

Basco

103.2

Alabat

25-Sep

Igme

Chaba

Oct 1-3

195/240

948

60.6

Clark

3-Oct

Julian

Aere

Oct 5-6

85/120

991

Itbayat

Iba

6-Oct

Karen

Sarika

Oct 13-17

150/210

963

187

Baler

16-Oct, 2:25 AM

406.5

Virac (Synop)

14-Oct

STY

Lawin

Haima

Oct 17-20

225/315

922

234

Tuguegarao

19-Oct, 11:58 PM

327.8

Baguio City

19-Oct

Marce

Tokage

Nov 23-28

85/105

991

Roxas City

24-Nov, 8:00 AM

112.0

Nina

Nock-Ten

Dec 23-27

185/255

943

280

Virac (Synop)

25-Dec, 6:30 PM

202.0

27-Sep, 9:15 AM -

6-Oct, 108.0 4:20 AM

Port Area 26-Aug

Roxas City 24-Nov Virac (Synop)

25-Dec

Data Source: PAGASA

LEGEND: TC Classification based on maximum sustained winds (kph) TD Tropical Depression: ≤ 61 kph

TS Tropical Storm: 62-88 kph

STS Severe Tropical Storm: 89-117 kph

TY Typhoon: 118-220 kph

STY Super Typhoon: ≥ 220 kph

LOSS AND DAMAGE DUE TO TCs & ASSOCIATED HAZARDS The combined impacts of 2016 TCs include a total of almost 5.8 million people affected, 44 lives claimed, and about PhP 33.4 billion worth of TC-related damages. Camarines Sur, Cagayan, Albay, Catanduanes, and Isabela are the top five provinces with the highest number of population affected by the TCs in 2016. Of the total reported fatalities, STY Lawin recorded the highest with 23 deaths, followed by TY Nina (16), TS Marce (3), and TY Butchoy (2). Kalinga and Benguet recorded the highest TC-associated fatalities, with seven and six, respectively, both caused by STY Lawin. Of the overall TC-related damages, 62% were agricultural while 32% were damages to infrastructure. Camarines Sur recorded the highest economic losses followed by Cagayan, Isabela, Albay, and Marinduque.

Figure 14a. Track of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) that entered the PAR (indicated by the gray dashed line) in 2016.

Figure 14b. Total affected population due to TCs and associated hazards per province in 2016

Figure 14c. (Bottom left) Total number of fatalities due to TCs and associated hazards reported per province in 2016

Figure 14d. (Bottom right) Total cost of damages due to TCs and associated hazards reported per province in 2016

A TALE OF TWO TCs: Ninety-two percent of the total population affected by 2016 TCs were due to the combined impacts of STY Lawin and TY Nina.

Figure 15a. Total affected population due to STY Lawin

Figure 15b. Total affected population due to TY Nina

Figure 16. Percentage of total affected population due to 2016 TC

Table 4a. Profile of STY Lawin

International Name

"Haima"

Date

17-20 Oct

42% 42%

STY Lawin STY Lawin TY Nina TY Nina

50%

2016 Max Sustained Winds

225 kph

Gustiness

315 kph

Highest Recorded

234 kph,

Gusts

Tuguegarao

Other 2016 TCs

Data Source: NDRRMC

City Highest recorded

328 mm,

Rainfall

Baguio City

Data Source: PAGASA

LAWIN AND NINA About 86% of the total cost of TC-related damages in 2016 were due to the combined impacts of STY Lawin and TY Nina.

Figure 17a. Total cost of damage due to STY Lawin

Table 4b. Profile of TY Nina

Figure 17b. Total cost of damage due to TY Nina

Figure 18. Percentage of total cost of damage due to 2016 TCs

International Name "Nock-Ten" Date

14%

23-27 Dec 2016

Max Sustained Winds

185 kph

Gustiness

225 kph

Highest Recorded

280 kph, Virac,

Gusts

Catanduanes

Highest recorded

202 mm,

Rainfall

8% 42%

49% 37%

50%

STY Lawin

TY TY NinaNina Other 2016 TCs

Other 2016 TCs

Data Source: NDRRMC

Virac, Catanduanes

Data Source: PAGASA

Tropical Cyclone Trends TC FREQUENCY The number of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) that entered Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) per year from 1951 to 2016 continues to show a slightly decreasing trend. In 2016, the country was visited by a total of 14 TCs, which is below the long-term average of 19-20 TC occurrences per year. Of those 14 TCs, half of them crossed the Philippine landmass.

Figure 19a. Annual number of TCs that entered PAR from 1951-2016. The solid green line indicates the annual total number of TCs in PAR (green dashed line shows linear trend), solid dark gray line shows number of TCs that made landfall and crossed, and dashed light gray line shows number of non-landfalling TCs.

Landfalling

Number of Tropical Cyclones

Total

Linear (Total)

30 25 20 15 10 5 0

1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Data Source: PAGASA

Non-Landfalling

TC INTENSITY The number of TCs entering PAR which were classified as extreme (more than 150 kph maximum sustained winds) showed a slightly increasing trend from 1971 to 2016. Of the 14 TCs that entered PAR in 2016, eight were extreme. 2016 ranked third with the most number of extreme TCs per year since 1971. 2004 remained on top with 10 extreme TCs and 2015 as the second with nine.

Figure 19b. Annual number of extreme TCs (maximum sustained winds more than 150kph) that entered PAR from 1951 to 2016. Dark green bars depict El Niño years, light green bars represent La Niña years, and gray bars signify neutral years. Dashed lines indicate an increasing trend, while dotted lines represent a five-year running average.

Number of Extreme Tropoical Cyclones

El Niño Niño Years Years La Niña NiñaYears Years

Neutral Years Neutral Years 5 Year Moving Average Five-Year Running Average

0 1971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

2011

2016

Data Source: PAGASA

LOSS AND DAMAGE DUE TO TCs & ASSOCIATED HAZARDS

Top 10 Years with Highest TCassociated Economic Losses and economic losses and damages Damages

Figure 20. Top 10 years with highest TC-associated

2013

The annual cost of damages attributed to TCs and their associated hazards from 1971 to 2016 continues to show an increasing trend.

2014 2012 2009 2016

2016 ranked fifth with a total damage cost amounting to more than PhP 33.4 billion, which is higher than that amassed in 2015.

2011 1998 2015

The highest TC-associated economic loss was recorded in 2013, which amounted to about PhP 102.4 billion due to TY Yolanda (Haiyan).

2006 2008

50,000

100,000

150,000

Damage Cost (in millions, PhP) Data Source: NDRRMC

Total Cost of damage due to TCs (in millions)

Figure 21. Annual cost of damages due to TCs from 1970 to 2016

120,000 2013

100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000

2016

20,000 0 1970

Data Source: NDRRMC

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Climate Anomalies and Notable Events In 2016, the Philippines experienced several extreme climatic and weather-related events. These include heavy rainfall events due to intense tropical cyclones and enhanced southwest monsoon, as well as drought and forest fire in Mindanao due to a strong El NiĂąo episode. Figure 22. Climate anomalies and extreme events in 2016

Super Typhoon Lawin On October 19, Lawin (Haima) made landfall in Cagayan with 225 kph maximum sustained winds and 315 kph gusts. This Super Typhoon claimed 23 lives and amassed damages amounting to PhP 16 billion in Regions I, II, CAR, III, IV-A, and V.

Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) In August 2016, about 1.2 million people were affected by several days of monsoon rains in NCR, Regions I,III, IV-A, VI and Negros Island Region. This Habagat event also led to 23 fatalities and PhP 464 million worth of damages.

Typhoon Ferdie One of the most intense TCs of 2016, Typhoon Ferdie (Meranti) struck the province of Batanes with 220 kph max sustained winds and up to 255 kph gusts on September 14. TY Ferdie inflicted almost PhP 300 million worth of damages in Batanes. Despite its strength, there were no casualties reported.

Typhoon Nina Packed with 185 kph max sustained winds and 255 kph gusts, Typhoon Nina (Nock-Ten) led to 16 people dead and caused severe damages amounting to PhP 12 billion, to regions of Bicol, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA and Eastern Visayas. With highest recorded gusts of 280 kph, TY Nina was considered to be the most intense Christmas tropical cyclone in the country.

Mt. Apo Forest Fire Drought in Mindanao The damage brought by the strong El NiĂąo episode reached PhP 12.8 billion for the period January to May 2016. More than 395,000 hectares of agricultural areas were damaged and about 295,000 farmers affected. Compounded by slow release of government relief, the drought led to violent protests in Kidapawan City, North Cotabato.

Around 350 hectares of forest was razed by fire that started on March 26. While primarily caused by a camp fire, it may have been aggravated by dry forest fuel and fire risk which are usually higher during drought episodes. 25

MAJOR MODES OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN THE PHILIPPINES ITCZ Rainfall is also influenced by the location of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), where the northeasterly winds in the Northern Hemisphere and the southeasterly winds in the Southern Hemisphere converge along the equator. From December to February, the ITCZ is located south of the equator. It moves northward until it reaches north of the Philippines around August to September, and then moves southward before December.

ENSO El Ni単o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) refers to the ocean component (El Ni単o) and the atmospheric component (southern oscillation) of a naturally occurring phenomenon that originates in the Pacific Ocean. El Ni単o and La Ni単a refer to the pattern of above or below average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific that leads to a major shift in weather patterns across the Pacific. ENSO is the most important source of inter-annual variability of rainfall in the Philippines.

MONSOONS A monsoon is a consistent wind pattern generated by a large weather system that lasts for a period of months and affects large areas. There are two monsoon seasons in the country: Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and Northeast Monsoon (Amihan). Habagat usually means wet conditions in the western sections of the country from June to September. Habagat usually brings significant amount of rainfall that triggers flooding and landslides, and is sometimes further enhanced by the presence of tropical cyclones in PAR. The Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) features cool and dry breeze with prolonged periods of successive cloudless days. It affects the eastern sections of the country from November to February.

TROPICAL CYCLONES Tropical Cyclone is the general term for a cyclone that originates over the tropical oceans. TCs are low pressure systems in which winds spin inward in a circularly symmetric spiral, bringing with it intense rain and winds. TCs are categorized further based on wind intensity: Tropical Depression (up to 61 kph), Tropical Storm (62-88 kph), Severe Tropical Storm (89-120kph), Typhoon (121-220kph) and Super Typhoon (more than 220kph).

Other modes of variability include the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) which is characterized by patterns of sea surface temperature anomalies over the North Pacific. It has warm and cold phases that last for decades. During warm (cold) phases of the PDO, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is another tropical mode of variability that can influence the intra-seasonal variations in rainfall over the Philippines. The MJO is typically a 30- to 60-day (but may also range from 20 to 90 days) oscillation that moves eastward near the equator, and involves variations in wind, and rainfall.

For more information about these different modes of variability, see the Philippine Climate Change Assessment: Working Group 1 Report on The Physical Science Basis at www.omlopezcenter.org