pizza set to expand with UK pizza drive- thru rst.

CGA and Fourth survey suggests a cautious return to trading

According to the latest Business Confidence Survey from CGA and Fourth, managed pubs, restaurants and bars were planning a gradual re-opening as of 4 July; operators having been feeling both cautious optimism and anxiety about likely trading levels.

The findings revealed that 59% of businesses in England planned to re-open some sites on 4 July, while a further 18% intended to open during the following week. But, on average, operators were planning to open only three in five sites during the first week back, with just a quarter (25%) planning to open all their sites initially, the survey found.

When asked about re-opening, consumer demand was found to be the primary concern for business leaders, with 84% listing it as their biggest or major worry. City and town centres also pose a challenge, with 75% of respondents expecting consumers to be reluctant to visit them post lockdown, the survey found.

“After more than three months in lockdown, operators will be looking forward to welcoming customers back, and the government’s reduction of required physical distancing to one metre has provided a significant boost,” said CGA group chief executive, Phil Tate.

“But excitement has to be tempered by huge uncertainty about consumer attitudes and trading, and it’s little surprise to see concerns about redundancies, closures and profits. While it’s pleasing that confidence is seeping back into the market, businesses will be anxiously waiting for the ‘new normal’ of eating and drinking out to emerge.”

Despite 83% of leaders stating they have confidence in their supply chain, the majority of businesses will be re-opening with reduced menus, the survey found. 82% of respondents stated they were cutting back food menus to core options, and 41% indicated they will be stripping back their drinks menu, with cocktails being the hardest hit category.

James England, senior vice president, at Fourth, added: “It’s incredibly positive to see sites re-opening across England after receiving the green light from the government. Understandably, there are concerns around the level of consumer demand, particularly in city-centre locations, where a number of support industries and office workers continue to work remotely. While it’s positive to see such strong confidence in the supply chain, we are actually seeing a bumpy ride ahead for operations as the supply chain remobilises under such challenging circumstances, which can only be lessened through proactive discussions with suppliers around revised menu item availability and delivery slots.”

This Business Confidence Survey also revealed the scale of concern in the sector regarding site closures and job losses, with 67% of industry bosses believing they will have to lay off staff, rather than bringing them back from furlough – on average, they anticipate cutting a fifth (21%) of their workforce, the survey revealed.

Fears of widespread site closures also remain, although they have eased from earlier in lockdown, it was found. Now, 43% of leaders expect not to permanently close any sites (up from 37% in April) and, on average, their data suggests that one in 12 sites may remain closed for good.

The survey also pointed to some recovery in business confidence. Their last poll in April found that a record low of 15% of leaders were optimistic about their business’s prospects over the next 12 months, but three months later that figure has doubled to 32%. The proportion feeling optimistic about the market in general has risen too, from 5% to 16%. However, both figures are still barely half the level of 12 months ago, which were at 58% and 30% respectively, note CGA.

The survey also revealed that rent negotiations remain the most pressing challenge, with operators having only modest confidence in the government’s new code of practice for tenant negotiations.

Looking at the long-term impact of Covid-19, 44% of business leaders expect an increase in home delivery frequency post lockdown, with 55% listing delivery as a revenue stream they are prioritising, the survey found. Some 51% of the respondents indicated that technology, in particular ordering apps, would be a priority for businesses moving forward.

The CGA Fourth Business Confidence Survey is based on responses from 100 leaders working at CEO, MD, chairman, director or other senior management level. The survey was carried out in late June 2020, closing on 29 June, days before the earliest date the sector was permitted to re-open.

@pizza set to expand with UK pizza drive-thru first

Colliers International’s Licensed & Leisure team has been instructed by restaurant brand, @pizza, to identify seven shipping container sites for its new drive-thru concept which it plans to roll out in retail park locations in Birmingham, Edinburgh and Glasgow. The venture will be “the UK’s first freshly cooked pizza drive-thru”, according to @pizza, rated number one pizza restaurant on Trip Advisor in Birmingham and Edinburgh, where it currently trades from. The new concept will enable @ pizza to open new sites for eat-in, takeaway, home delivery and now a drive-thru offering whilst providing a safe environment for customers and employees during the Covid-19 pandemic. The drive-thru’s can make up to 10 cooked pizzas per minute via high tech conveyor ovens using premium ingredients which customers have unlimited choice to customise, and all for a maximum price of £10.95, say @pizza.

National Time Out campaign calls for rents to be pushed back

Hospitality businesses, having been the first and hardest hit by the virus, and now the last to be allowed re-open, point out Hospitality Union (www.hospitalityunion.co.uk, organisers of the National Time Out campaign), risk more than half of their number not surviving as well as the loss of as many as two million jobs, they estimate, if some extraordinary ‘next measures’ are not taken.

Started by Jonathan Downey (CEO, London Union), the original aim of the National Time Out campaign was to allow the whole hospitality industry to ‘press pause’ by pushing back the next nine months/three quarters of rent (April-December), so that nobody pays anything until Q1 2021, when rental payments would start as normal again. In other words, a nine-month, rent-free period.

In addition, the campaign proposed that landlords be allowed to extend each corresponding lease by nine months so that those payments aren’t lost, just postponed. The campaign also wants to enable the same push back for landlords on the next nine months of their loan repayments, to help them bridge the cashflow gap from three quarters of no rent (with the debt secured on premises benefiting from the rent postponement).

They also proposed the inclusion of other protections and support for landlords. For example, enhanced access to the Coronavirus Business Intervention Loan Scheme (CBILS), continued service charge and insurance payments so that premises can be maintained/safeguarded and preventing penalties for postponed payment.

These proposals were communicated by letter to chancellor, Rishi Sunak back in April, with Jonathan Downey following up with a second letter to the chancellor in early June in which he proposed the nine-month rent-free period be upped to twelve (March 2020 to March 2021).

The #NationalTimeOut would only apply to those businesses that have been forced to close by government order, will be last to re-open, and will take the longest to get back to any kind of normal – hospitality and leisure – they propose, and come the end of rent-free period, the hospitality industry would simply “press play”, and rental payments would start as normal again. It’s a simple solution, feel the campaigners, but which would allow businesses to work towards a bounce back without the need for another taxpayer handout.

Backers of the campaign include Brandon Stephens (founder, Tortilla), Mark Selby (CEO, Wahaca), Michael Gardner (property director, Nando’s), Pano Christou (CEO, Pret), Paul Campbell (chairman, GymBox), Laura Harper-Hinton (founder, Caravan Restaurants), Gerry Ford (global CEO, Caffè Nero), Colin Hughes (UK country director, Subway).

“Our industry faces a prolonged return to normality, during which time they are unlikely to see their turnover return to breakeven let alone profitability,” said PAPA director, Jim Winship. “Our research shows that on average rents make up more than a quarter of outgoings for most operators. This will be a major factor in deciding whether or not these businesses can economically re-open.

“Furthermore, if landlords start demanding back rent the moment the government takes the brakes off, it’s difficult to see how many of these businesses are going to get through this.

“We fully support the National Time Out campaign and we want to see landlords supporting their tenants by agreeing to any back rent being paid off over a period, such as spread over the remaining life of the tenancy.

“Coronavirus has also been a wake-up call to the current landlord/tenant relationship. This needs to change to one where landlords and tenants work together and share the risks. It would be much fairer if rents were based on a percentage of turnover rather than a fixed amount.”

BACKGROUND

Hospitality Union is a group of 3000+ hospitality business owners working together to save pubs, clubs, bars, cafés, restaurants and millions of jobs. The group was launched by Jonathan Downey, CEO of London Union, on Monday, 16 March 2020, just a few hours before the Prime Minister advised everyone to “… avoid pubs, clubs, theatres and other social venues.” Later that day, Hospitality Union published a ‘List of Six’ measures that they feel we needed to see from government to help the industry survive. They were: 1. A one-year business rates holiday; 2. “Time to Pay” for VAT and NIC/PAYE payments, plus a

VAT holiday; 3. A lease forfeiture moratorium; 4. A six-month debt enforcement moratorium; 5. An employee rescue plan; 6. A £330 billion loan fund.

The campaigners have subsequently seen some extraordinary measures from government, including unprecedented support like the Coronavirus Jobs Retention Scheme, with five of their “List of Six” delivered. Building on this success, they launched their campaign for a #NationalTimeOut, including the nine-month #NationalRentFree.