Thailand Power Development Plan (PDP 2007) By Mr. Prutichai Chonglertvanichkul Assistant Governor - Planning Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT)
Presented to
High Level Forum on Lao-Thai Partnership in Sustainable Hydropower Development
7 September 2007 Shangri-La Hotel, Bangkok, Thailand
Contents z
Introduction
z
Present Status of Thailand Power System
z
Assumptions of PDP 2007
z
Thailand Power Development Plan
z
Thailand – Lao PDR Collaboration
z
Conclusion
Introduction
What is a Power Development Plan? An optimum plan to indicate new power plants with appropriate sizes and types at appropriate time to serve the increasing demand in the next 10-15 years adequately. กําลังผลิต (MW)
รฟ.ใหม
รฟ.ใหม
รฟ.ใหม
รฟ.ใหม
กําลังผลิตสํารอง
กําลังผลิตติดตั้ง (ปจจุบน ั ) 2,7115.203 MW
ค
20XX
20XX
ฟ ารไฟ งก อ ต ม า ว
20XX
า
20XX
ป
Objectives of Power Development Plans • Optimum Plan • System Reliability and Quality • Environmental Impact
Key Inputs for Developing PDP z z z z z z z
Existing System Information Long Term Power Demand Forecast Fuel Prices Schedules of Power Plant Retirement Candidate Power Plants National Energy Policy Planning Criteria
Present Status of Thailand Power System
Installed Capacity – by Power Plant Types Gas Turbine and Diesel
972.4 MW
Hydro 3,764.2 MW
3.4 %
13.2 %
EGAT-TNB
300 MW Combined Cycle 13,539.9 MW
47.5 %
1.1 % Thermal 9,666.6 MW
Renewable Energy
33.9 %
1.0 %
279.3 MW
Total Installed Capacity (as of 31 July 2007) 28,522.5 MW Peak Demand (24 April 2007)
22,586.1 MW
Installed Capacity – by Producers IPPs, SPPs, VSPPs, Lao PDR, and Malaysia
12,727.9 MW
45% EGAT 15,794.6 MW
55 %
Total Installed Capacity (as of 31 July 2007) 28,522.5 MW Peak Demand (24 April 2007)
22,586.1 MW
Energy Generation – by Fuel Type, Jan-Jul 2007 Renewable Resources 1.7% Imported Coal 9.0% Heavy Oil 2.0% Natural Gas 66.0%
Lignite 12.5% Hydro 7.2% EGAT-TNB 1.6%
Diesel 0.02%
Total Energy Generation and the Purchased 85,664 GWh (* preliminary figure)
Energy Generation – by Producers, Jan-Jul 2007 IPPs,SPPs,VSPPs, Purchase from Neighboring Countries
46,752 GWh 54.6 % EGAT 38,912 GWh 45.4%
Total Energy Generation and the Purchased 85,664 GWh (* preliminary figure)
Daily Peak Load: March – May 2007 22,586 MW
MW
24,000
on 24 April 2007 at 2:30 p.m. Increased from April 2006 by 10.01%
22,161 MW
Increased from March 2006 by 6.83%
23,000
21,234 MW
Increased from May 2006 by 0.81%
21,064 MW 4 May 2006 at 1:30 p.m.
22,000 2007
21,000 20,000
2006
19,000 18,000 17,000 16,000 15,000
March
April
May
Reserve Margin
Reserve Margin
Reserve Margin
2006
= 24.11%
2006
= 25.28%
2006
= 22.10%
2007
= 22.91%
2007
= 20.44%
2007
= 31.48%
14,000 Sun
Sun
Sun
Sun
Sun
Sun
Sun
Day
Sun
Sun
Sun
Sun
Sun
Sun
Sun
Transmission Systems
Theun Hinboun Nam Ngum 230 kV 115 kV Thakek 22 kV
Northern
(As of April 2007)
z
– – – –
z
z
Northeastern
Total High Voltage Transmission Line Length: 30,098 circuit-km –
500 kV – 3,433 circuit-km 230 kV – 12,795 circuit-km 132 kV – 9 circuit-km 115 kV – 13,792 circuit-km 69 kV – 46 circuit-km
Total High Voltage Substation: 205 Substations Transformers: 66,316 MVA
Suwannakhet 115 kV
230 kV
Xe Xet 115 kV
230 & 500 kV
Central
115 & 230 kV
Metropolitan 115 & 230 kV
Southern EGAT - TNB 115 & 132 kV
Huay Ho 230 kV
Assumptions of PDP 2007
Power Demand Forecast (Prepared by the Thailand Load Forecast Subcommittee)
Assumptions: z Use actual power demand of 2006 as the base year z Use estimated GDP growth rate provided by the NESDB for Base case, GDP –0.5% for Low case, and GDP +0.5% for High case – – –
Average GDP growth rate of 2007–2011 Average GDP growth rate of 2012–2016 Average GDP growth rate of 2017–2021
NESDB = National Economic and Social Development Board NESDP = National Economic and Social Development Plan
(the 10th NESDP) (the 11th NESDP) (the 12th NESDP)
is 5.0%. is 5.6%. is 5.6%.
Long Term Load Forecast March 2007: Base Case Peak Demand Year
MW
Energy
Increase MW
%
GWh
Load
Increase GWh
Factor %
%
Actual 2003
18,121
1 ,4 4 0
8 .6 3
118,374
7 ,0 7 4
6 .3 6
7 4 .5 7
2004
19,326 20,538
1 ,2 0 4
6 .6 5
9 ,0 8 3
7 .6 7
7 5 .0 8
1,212
127,457 134,827 141,948
7,370 7,121
5.78 5.28
74.94 76.93
21,064
527
6.27 2.56
22,513 23,957
1,449 1,444
6.88 6.41
150,665 158,994
8,717 8,329
6.14 5.53
76.40 75.76
25,225 26,635
1,268 1,410
5.29 5.59
167,947 177,285
8,953 9,338
5.63 5.56
76.00 75.98
27,996 29,625
1,361 1,629
5.11 5.82
185,926 196,723
8,641 10,797
4.87 5.81
75.81 75.80
31,384 33,216
1,759 1,832
5.94 5.84
208,478 220,759
11,755 12,281
5.98 5.89
75.83 75.87
35,251 37,382
2,035 2,131
6.13 6.05
234,375 248,575
13,616 14,200
6.17 6.06
75.90 75.91
39,560 41,795
2,178 2,235
5.83 5.65
263,076 278,021
14,501 14,945
5.83 5.68
75.91 75.94
2020
44,082 46,481
2,287 2,399
5.47 5.44
293,257 309,236
15,236 15,979
5.48 5.45
75.94 75.95
2021
48,958
2,477
5.33
325,697
16,461
5.32
75.94
2005 2006 Forecast 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Fuel Price Type
Forecasted by
Natural Gas
PTT
Fuel Oil
PTT
Diesel
PTT
Lignite
EGAT
Imported Coal
EGAT
Nuclear
Ux Consulting Company
Power Plant Retirement Schedule Year
EGAT Power Plant (MW)
IPPs/SPPs (MW)
Total (MW)
2007-2015
2,102
1,307
3,409
2016-2021
2,831
1,449
4,280
4,933
2,756
7,689
Total
Candidate Power Plant 700 MW Coal-Fired Thermal Power Plant 700 MW Gas-Fired Combined Cycle Power Plant 230 MW Gas Turbine Power Plant 1,000 MW Nuclear Power Plant
National Energy Policy Increased power import from neighboring countries during 2011-2021 Power Purchase from SPP, VSPP 1,700 MW additional power purchased from SPPs during 2012-2020 (to make 4,000 MW in total of the purchased from SPPs)
Fuel Diversification (Coal, Gas, Nuclear, Imported Hydro Power)
Possible Power Import from Neighboring Countries
Country
MW
Laos
5,000
China
3,000
Myanmar
8,200
Total
16,200
Planning Criteria System Reliability – –
Minimum Reserve Margin : 15% Maximum LOLP : 24 Hours/Year
Efficiency Improvement –
EGAT Power Plant Enhancement (CHP)
Thailand Power Development Plan (PDP 2007)
Various Scenarios PDPs were formulated in 3 scenarios for each load forecast. Totally, there are 9 scenarios as followings. Load Forecast : Base Case (B) Plan B1 : Least Cost Plan Plan B2 : Sub-Optimum Plan with Possible Coal-Fired Power Plants Plan B3 : Sub-Optimum Plan with Possible Coal-Fired Power Plants, 10 MTPA LNG Limitation and More Power Import from Neighboring Countries Load Forecast : Low Case (L) Plan L1-3 (Corresponding to Plan B1-3) Load Forecast : High Case (H) Plan H1-3 (Corresponding to Plan B1-3)
Ongoing Power Plant Projects (2007 – 2010) Year 2007
Power Plant Projects SPPs Gulf Power Generation Co., Ltd. # 1 Total Annual Increase
Private
-
1,428
751
2,173
1,550
1,008
976
-
734 1,428 38
SPPs
39 3
Chana Combined Cycle Power Plant
710
Gulf Power Generation Co., Ltd. # 2
734
Ratchburi Power Co., Ltd. # 1-2 Total Annual Increase South Bangkok Combined Cycle # 2 (CHP) Small Hydro (RPS) SPPs
2x700 2,924 74 45.7 88
South Bangkok Combined Cycle # 3
715
Bang Pakong Combined Cycle # 5
715
Power Purchase from Laos (Nam Theun 2)
920
Total Annual Increase 2010
EGAT
673.25
South Bangkok Combined Cycle # 1 (CHP) Solar Energy, Wind Energy (RPS)
2009
Total 20.3
BLCP Power Co., Ltd. # 2
2008
Additional Capacity (MW)
2,558
Wangnoi Combined Cycle # 1-3 (CHP)
243
North Bangkok Combined Cycle # 1
700
Small Hydro (RPS) Total Annual Increase
33 976
Ongoing Transmission System Projects (2007–2010) Year 2007
Transmission System Projects Upgrading of the 115 kV Central-Southern Regions tie line to 230 kV Project Transmission System Expansion Project - Phase 10 (2007 -2008) Transmission System for Chana Combined Cycle Power Plant Project
2008
Transmission System for South Bangkok Combined Cycle Power Plant Project Block 3 Transmission System for Bang Pakong Combined Cycle Power Plant Project Block 5 Transmission System Project for Power Purchased from Nam Theun 2 Hydro Power Plant Transmission System Expansion Projects for the Greater Bangkok Area and Vicinity - Phase 2 (2008-2010)
2009
Transmission System for North Bangkok Combined Cycle Power Plant Project Block 1
2010
500 kV Transmission System Project for IPPs Power Plants 500 kV Transmission System for Power Purchased from Nam Ngum 2 Hydroelctric Project
PDP 2007 (Recommended Plan) New Domestic Capacity Gas
Coal
Nuclear
SPP
Power Import
2011
-
-
-
-
597
597
34,037
27,996
18.0
2012
1,400
-
-
200
220
1,820
35,857
29,625
17.4
2013
1,400
-
-
200
963
2,563
37,800
31,384
16.5
2014
1,400
700
-
200
261
2,561
40,361
33,216
17.7
2015
1,400
1,400
-
200
-
3,000
42,186
35,251
16.1
Total
5,600
2,100
-
800
2,041
10,541
2016
1,400
700
-
200
390
2,690
44,127
37,382
16.4
2017
2,800
-
-
200
500
3,500
47,119
39,560
15.6
2018
2,800
-
-
200
510
3,510
49,888
41,795
15.6
2019
3,500
-
-
200
530
4,230
52,829
44,082
16.5
2020
1,400
-
2,000
100
550
4,050
55,251
46,481
16.7
2021
700
-
2,000
570
3,270
58,321
48,958
15.4
Year
Increasing Capacity
Total
12,600
700
4,000
900
3,050
21,250
Grand Total
18,200
2,800
4,000
1,700
5,091
31,791
-
Total Peak Capacity Demand
Reserve Margin (%)
PDP 2007 (Alternative Plan) New Domestic Capacity Gas
Coal
Nuclear
SPP
Power Import
2011
-
-
-
-
597
597
34,037
27,996
18.0
2012
1,400
-
-
200
220
1,820
35,857
29,625
17.4
2013
1,400
-
-
200
963
2,563
37,800
31,384
16.5
2014
1,400
700
-
200
261
2,561
40,361
33,216
17.7
2015
1,400
1,400
-
200
-
3,000
42,186
35,251
16.1
Total
5,600
2,100
-
800
2,041
10,541
2016
1,400
700
-
200
390
2,690
44,127
37,382
16.4
2017
1,400
-
-
200
1,900
3,500
47,119
39,560
15.6
2018
1,400
-
-
200
1,910
3,510
49,888
41,795
15.6
2019
-
-
-
200
4,030
4,230
52,829
44,082
16.5
2020
-
-
2,000
100
1,950
4,050
55,251
46,481
16.7
2021
-
-
2,000
1,270
3,270
58,321
48,958
15.4
Year
Increasing Capacity
Total
4,200
700
4,000
900
11,450
21,250
Grand Total
9,800
2,800
4,000
1,700
13,491
31,791
-
Total Peak Capacity Demand
Reserve Margin (%)
Energy Generation by Fuel Types (Recommended Plan) 340,000 320,000 300,000 280,000 260,000
220,000 200,000
160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000
69%
75%
7% 10%
6% 9%
75%
73%
6% 8%
8% 8%
69%
70%
71%
72%
9%
8%
9% 5%
9%
73%
69%
65%
11% 6%
10% 6%
10% 5%
8%
8%
8%
8%
8%
8%
6%
6%
180,000
80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000
13% 7%
12% 7%
12% 6%
12% 6%
20 21
20 20
20 19
20 18
Year
20 17
20 16
20 15
20 14
20 13
20 12
0
20 11
GWh
240,000
Imported Power Nuclear Renewable Energy Diesel Heavy Oil Natural Gas Imported Coal Lignite Hydro (Domestic)
Energy Generation by Fuel Types (Alternative Plan) 340,000 320,000 300,000 280,000 260,000 240,000 220,000 200,000
Imported Power Nuclear Renewable Energy Diesel Heavy Oil Natural Gas Imported Coal Lignite Hydro (Domestic)
6%
180,000
8%
8%
8%
6%
8%
12%
16%
24%
27%
28%
5%
9%
160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000
69%
75%
7% 10%
6% 9%
75%
73%
6% 8%
8% 8%
70%
69%
67%
64%
57%
50%
46%
13% 7%
12%
12%
6%
6%
11% 6%
10% 6%
10% 5%
80,000
20 21
20 20
20 19
20 18
20 17
20 16
20 12
20 11
0
12% 7% 20 15
20,000
20 14
40,000
20 13
60,000
Thailand – Lao PDR Collaboration
Power Purchased from Lao PDR Year
Projects
Capacity (MW)
Status
1998
Theun Hinboun
214
Commissioned
1999
Huay Ho
126
Commissioned
2009
Nam Theun 2
920
PPA signed, Under construction
2011
Nam Ngum 2
597
PPA signed, Under construction
2012
Theun Hinboun (Extended)
220
Draft Tariff MOU completed, to be signed within 2007
2013
Nam Ngum 3
440
PPA to be signed within 2007
Nam Theun 1
523
PPA to be signed within 2007
Nam Ngiep 1
261
Tariff MOU signed on June 13, 2007
2014
Total
3,301
Noted: The Royal Thai Government and the Laos Government have signed the MOU, on 18 December 2006, stating that Thailand will increase the imported capacity from 3,000 MW to 5,000 MW from Laos.
Thailand – Lao PDR Interconnection
Existing
Future Projects 500 kV Transmission Line 230 kV Transmission Line 115 kV Transmission Line
Conclusion
Conclusion : Long Term PDP PDP was formulated based on available current information. Once this information is updated and/or new national policy on energy is applied, PDP is also reformulated. This probably changes the results in the number of future power plants and their fuel requirement. PDP is therefore ‘A Rolling Plan’.
Thank You...
Fuel Price Ye ar
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
M arginal Natural G as for Ne w Plants
2% Sulfur He av y O il
Die se l
Lignite
Importe d Coal
Nucle ar
(T HB/M M BT U)
(T HB /M M B T U)
(T H B/M M BT U)
(T H B/M M B T U)
326
619
53.1 53.1
90.1 90.6
24.7 24.7
53.9 55.2
89.8 89.7
24.7 24.7
57.0 58.9
88.6 89.1
24.7 24.7
60.7 62.6
89.6 90.1
24.7 24.7
63.7 65.7
90.6 91.2
24.7 24.7
68.2 72.4
91.7 92.2
24.7 24.7
92.7 93.3
24.7 24.7
93.8
24.7
2007 2008
326
619
2009
326
619
2010 2011
222
326
619
326
619
2012
246
326
619
2013
244
326
619
2014
246
326
619
2015
246
326
619
2016
248
326
619
2017
249
326
619
2018
251
326
619
2019
253
326
619
2020
254
326
619
74.7 76.3
2021
255
326
619
78.1
(T HB/M M BT U) (T HB/M M BT U)
Exchange Rate : 37 THB/USD Note : (1–3) Data from PTT, 31 January 2007 (at crude price 55 USD/BBL) : (4) Data from EGAT : (5) 2008-2011 FOB forecast from ABARE (Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics), average transportation cost 15 USD/Ton : (6) Ux Consulting Company, 21 February 2007