Double Dip

DOUBLE DIP: Post-Crisis Urbanism and Architecture

GSAPP Spring 2011 Instructors _ Shohei Shigematsu Christy Cheng Topics _

Economic Crisis / Natural Crisis / Energy Crisis / Urban Growth Strategies / Islands

Economic Crisis spheres of influence

DOUBLE DIP STUDIO 2011, GSAPP Georgina Lalli, Muchan Park, Kathryn van Voorhees

Sinking North, Rising South deficit (% of gdp) in the americas

15%

10%

Chile 5%

0%

Jamaica Bolivia Venezuela Peru Trinidad and Tobago El Salvador Dominican Republic Canada

Panama

Equador Mexico

Bahamas

Belize -5%

Honduras Uruguay Brazil Guatemala

Jamaica

Argentina Nicaragua

-10%

United States

-15%

source: World Bank 1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Political Shifting sphere of influence

US PROTECTORATES US MILITAR INTERVENTION INTERVENTION FOR COUP D’ETAT INTERVENTION FOR DEMOCRATIC GOV FREE TRADE AGREEMENT BRITISH COLONIES

Political Shifting sphere of influence

US PROTECTORATES US MILITAR INTERVENTION INTERVENTION FOR COUP D’ETAT INTERVENTION FOR DEMOCRATIC GOV FREE TRADE AGREEMENT MERCOSUR

Moving to North

USA

50,000

net migration Aruba

Bahamas

0

Trinidad & Tobago Puerto Rico -50,000

10% of Dominicans live abroad

Jamaica

-100,000

Haiti DR

-150,000

Cuba

-200,000 Mexico

-250,000 1960

1965

1970

source: World Bank, United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects 2008 Peru

1975

1980

1985 1990 Equador

1995

2000

2005

Labor Force Lost

emigration from Caribbean countries 40% Dominica

Grenada 54%

11% Bahamas 38% Antigua Barbuda

35% Jamaica

St.Lucia 23%

11% Haiti

12 10

Percent of Labor Force that Has Migrated to OECD Member Countries: Caribbean vs. the Rest of the World, 1965–2000 Source: Docquier and Marfouq (2004).

12% Dominican Republic

St. Vincent and the Grenadines 37%

Barbados 25%

8 6 4 2

Trinidad Tobago 32% Caribbean

Central America

Northern Europe

Southern Europe

Oceania

Western Europe

Western Asia

Northern Africa

South-Eastern Asia

South America

Eastern Europe

North America

Central Africa

Southern Africa

Western Africa

Estern Asia

Eastern Africa

South Central Asia

0

ECONOMIC EQUILIZERS

Free Trade Zones goods may be traded without any barriers imposed by customs authorities, like quotas and tariffs. This was meant to incentivize job opportunities and to attract domestic and foreign investment. where

They are the result of protectionist policies because they were born from the confinement of foreign companies in specific locations, so that they would not compete with internal production and exports.

Shannon IRELAND* Aras IRAN Miami USA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC JAMAICA Saipan PUERTO RICO Colon PANAMA Manaus BRAZIL

Suez EGYPT Calabar NIGERIA

Shanghai CHINA Kish Island Shenzhen IRAN TAIWAN CHINA Jebel Ali BANGLADESH Cavite UAE PHILIPPINES Madras INDIA Port Klang MALAYSIA

MAURITIUS MANUFACTURING COMMERCIAL/SERVICES MANUFACTURING & COMMERCIAL / SERVICES *First FTZ

Free Trade Zones

COUNTRY B

functioning system

TAXED BY COUNTRY B

COUNTRY A IMPORTS RAW MATERIAL (tax free)

FTZ

DEEPLY ROOTED

LOCALLY DEPLOYING

GLOBALLY

INCOME TAX TO HOST COUNTRY

FTZ

EXPORTS RAW MATERIAL (tax free)

EXPORTS RAW MATERIAL (tax free)

TAX FREE IF FREE TRADE AGREEMENT EXISTS

FTA COUNTRY

FTZ Membership enterprise application

APPLICATION FORM BUSINESS PLAN FREIGHT MANAGEMENT SPECIFICS OF PROCESSING FOR CUSTOMS CLEARENCE AND ACCOUNT MANAGEMENT

REVIEW BY THE FTZ MANAGEMENT APPROVAL FROM CUSTOMS AND OTHER DEPARTMENTS

INVESTOR’S PROOF OF IDENTIFICATION

ENTERPRISE

HOST COUNTRY

OPERATIONS ESTABLISHED:

FTZ

Colon Free Trade Zone colon, panama

Colon Free Trade Zone colon, panama

CREATED IN 1948 “THE TRADING SHOWCASE” for CA, SA & CARIBBEAN importing, storing, assembling, re-packing and re-exporting SPACIAL TYPOLOGY AND EQUIPMENT: Enclosed space and perimeter control SURFACE: 26,136,000 sq ft / 600 acres 12,900 cargo vessels + 58 intl. passanger & cargo airlines 2,500 companies / 28,000 people employed KM 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 FLIGHT 15:00 12:30 10:00 7:30 HOURS SAILING 21 DAYS

0

1

17.5

2

14

10.5

5:00 2:30 3.5

7

5

0

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

0

2:30 5:00 7:30 10:00 12:30 15:00

FLIGHT HOURS

3.5

SAILING DAYS

0

7

10.5

14 17.5

21

KM

VISITORS: 250,000 per year INCOME TAX VARIES according to # of PANAMENIAN employees

0

1

2

5

Shenzhen Special Economic Zone shenzhen, guangdong, china

Shenzhen Special Economic Zone shenzhen, guangdong, china Established in May 1980 First special economic zone in China Primarily geared to exporting processed goods.

In 1999, Shenzhen's new-and high-tech industry output value reached 12 billion USD, 40% of the city's total industrial output.

In the 1970s approximately 30,000 people resided in Shenzhen with 65% employment. By 1985, the population reached 4 million and most residents held manufacturing jobs.

KM 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 FLIGHT 15:00 12:30 10:00 7:30 HOURS

5:00 2:30

0

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

0

2:30 5:00 7:30 10:00 12:30 15:00

KM FLIGHT HOURS

Expanding FTZ Airport Nanshan

Futian Financial District

Luohu

Hong Kong 43 km 0 1 2

5km

Yantian Ports

Mauritius Freeport

port louis district, republic of mauritius

Mauritius Freeport

port louis district, republic of mauritius Created in 1992 The entire national island is a FTZ This customs-free zone for goods destined for re-export was designed by the government to promote the country as a regional warehousing, distribution, marketing, and logistics center for Eastern and Southern Africa and the Indian Ocean rim.

KM 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 FLIGHT 15:00 12:30 10:00 7:30 HOURS

5:00 2:30

0

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

0

2:30 5:00 7:30 10:00 12:30 15:00

Port Louis

Airport

0

10km

KM FLIGHT HOURS

Miami Free Trade Zone miami, florida, usa

Miami Free Trade Zone miami, florida, usa

CREATED IN 1979 HUB FOR INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE GLOBAL SUPPLIERS, DISTRIBUTORS, LOGISTICS SPACIAL TYPOLOGY AND EQUIPMENT: Enclosed space and perimeter control SURFACE: 825,000 sq ft / 19 acres 2 warehouse distribution buildings (330,000 sq ft each) 2 showroom malls (75,000 sq ft)

KM 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 FLIGHT 15:00 12:30 10:00 7:30 HOURS

0

1

5:00 2:30

0

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

0

2:30 5:00 7:30 10:00 12:30 15:00

2

KM

offices for US Customs & Border Patrols

FLIGHT HOURS

0

1

2

5

Kuala Lumpur Cyberjaya Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Kuala Lumpur Cyberjaya Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Petronas Towers (14mile)

Sultan Abdul Aziz Shah Ariport (14mile)

OPENED IN 1995 7000 ACRE MULTIMEDIA SUPER CORRIDOR -500 IT-oriented, Multinational Companies (Dell, HP, DHL, HSBC, Motorola, OCBC, BMW, IBM, Shell IT...)

-370 different jobs available -IT-oriented LimKokWing University: 20,000 students -Fiber optics network, backup electricity, data and call center, Cyberjaya TV -Income tax exemption of 100% / eligibile for R&D grants

Port Klang Free Trade Zone (23mile)

-Duty-free import of IT equipment -No internet censorship -High quality urban plan with green spaces -Globally competitive telecommunication tariff and services

Kuala Lumpur International Airport (14mile)

RE-EVALUATING CARIBBEAN ECONOMY

Caribbean Tourism, Economic Impact

Peru

Ecuador

tourism as % total exports

El Salvador

Guatemala

Costa Rica Panama

Nicaragua

Honduras

Belize

Cancun, Mexico

Colombia

Cazumel, Mexico Cayman Islands

Jamaica Cuba Venezuela Grenada

Aruba Netherlands Antilles

Trinidad & Tobago

USA

St. Vincent St. Lucia Martinique Haiti

Dominica Puerto Rico

Bahamas

Dominican Republic

US Virgin Islands Barbados

British Virgin Islands Anguila St. Martin Antigua and Barbuda

40% + 11-39% 0-10% No data provided

Guadeloupe

Bermuda

source: World Bank, 2008

Caribbean Passenger Visits

Peru

Ecuador

tourists vs cruise stopovers

El Salvador

Guatemala

Costa Rica Panama

Nicaragua

Honduras

Belize

Cancun, Mexico

Colombia

Cazumel, Mexico Cayman Islands

Jamaica Cuba Venezuela Grenada

Aruba Netherlands Antilles

Trinidad & Tobago

USA

St. Vincent St. Lucia Martinique Haiti

Dominica Puerto Rico

Bahamas

Dominican Republic

US Virgin Islands Barbados

British Virgin Islands Anguila St. Martin Antigua and Barbuda Guadeloupe

CRUISE STOPOVERS TOURISTS

Bermuda

source: Caribbean Tourism Org., 2010

Diverse Cultural Strata historical strata 1700-present

Spain

Latin America

GB

Central America

France

Caribbean

USA

Dominican Republic Haiti

Expanding Economic Network treaties with US

CBI (CARIBBEAN BASIN INITIATIVE) 1983 CBERA (CAREBBEAN BASIN ECONOMIC RECOVERY ACT

Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Belize, British Virgin Islands, Costa Rica, Dominica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Grenada, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Panama, St. Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and Trinidad and Tobago, Aruba, Guyana, Nicaragua

CAFTA-DR (CENTRAL AMERICA FREE TRADE AGREEMENT - DOMINICAN REPUBLIC) 2004

El Salvador (2006), Honduras (2006), Nicaragua (2006), Guatemala (2006), Dominican Republic (2007), Costa Rica (2009)

NAFTA 1994

Barbados, Belize, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Panama, Saint Lucia, and Trinidad and Tobago SOURCES: 2009 REPORT TO CONGRESS ON THE CBERA-OFFICE OF THE US REPRESENTATIVE

Expanding Economic Network treaties with EU

EUROPEAN UNION EPA (ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT) CARIFORUM (=subgroup of ACP States and serves as base for economic dialogue with European Union)

Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, the Dominican Republic, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Saint Christopher and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago

EPA (ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT) AFRICAN COUNTRIES EPA (ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT) PACIFIC COUNTRIES SOURCES: 2009 REPORT TO CONGRESS ON THE CBERA-OFFICE OF THE US REPRESENTATIVE

Expanding Economic Network imports by country of origin (2009)

US 58%

EU 14% China 14%

Mexico 6%

sources: WTO

Venezuela 8%

Expanding Economic Network exports by country of destination (2009)

US 69%

EU 12%

HAITI 15%

China 2%

Japan 2%

sources: WTO

5000 Expanding Economic Network

net trade in caribbean 4000

Dominican Republic

3000 Trinida d & Toba go

2000 1000 Aruba

0

NET TRADE Panam

a

-1000 -2000 -3000

Jamaic

a

Nether

Cuba

lands A

ntilles

-4000 Puerto

-5000

British Antigu

a and

Barbud

a

Haiti

Rico

Virgin Is

lands

Baham

as

Expanding Economic Network

DR International Trade 1940 - 2008

international trade

values FOB in (1,000 US$)

excludes: Free Trade areas

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1999

1997

1995

1994

1992

1990

1989

1987

1985

1984

1982

1980

1979

1977

1975

1974

1972

1970

1969

1967

1965

1964

1962

1960

1959

1957

1955

1954

1952

1950

1949

1947

1945

1944

1942

2,000,000

1940

FOB: Free On Board

-4,000,000

INTERNATIONAL TRADE BALANCE

-6,000,000 -8,000,000 -10,000,000 -12,000,000 -14,000,000

DR International Trade Balance 1999-2007 INCLUDES FREE TRADE AREAS values FOB in US$

8,000,000,000 7,000,000,000 6,000,000,000 5,000,000,000

IMPORT

4,000,000,000

EXPORT

3,000,000,000

INTERNATIONAL TRADE BALANCE

2,000,000,000 1,000,000,000 0 1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006 2007*

Zona Franca

Dominican Republic Free Trade Zones “ The Free Trade Zones have become a permanent source of employment and income for the Dominican people, due to the fact that they can be established in any part of the country, including places where jobs cannot otherwise be created in a speedy and effective manner.� LAW 8-90

Free Trade Zone Airport Port

DR Manufacturing System Transformation economic relationship: investors / host country RECENT PAST

CURRENT

Home Market 1960s and 70s.

Import Substitution Industrialization (ISI)

Domestic Manufacturing production of nontradable goods

regionalism / protectionism

Free Trade Zone (FTZ) Manufacturing 65% Total Export Market

35% Total Export Market 1

trade treaties privilage certain goods / services / trade partners

2

infrastrucuture and plants provided by government or private operators

3

plants rented to international enterprises at subsidized rates

4

employees readily available for low labor wage

Negatives for host: illegal workers

5

raw materials arrive duty free

limited global economic impact

6

communication and transporation facilities utilized

7

on-site customs processing (reduces paperwork delay)

8

products exported duty free

Positives for host: treaties protect host goods integrated social system

Positives for host: increased foreign capital increased employment increased GDP

PPP

PPP

PPP

Negatives for host: weak local inter-industry linkages only serves a segment of employable population

Zona Franca

Dominican enterprise in free trade zone Enterprises by Country of Origin, 2009 OTHER 6% CANADA 2% EU 10% PUERTO RICO 3% S. KOREA 2%

USA 41%

DR 36%

National Export 35%

Export from F.T.Z 65%

DR Exports, 2009 Free Trade Zone Airport Port

DR Free Trade Zone Production economic incentives for Dominican Republic FUTURE Manufacturing

Other 27%

Tobacco 15%

+

Commercial / Services

High-Tech Telemarketing

Telecom

Logistics Jewelry 2% Medical 14% Electronics Shoes 10% 5%

Textiles 27%

Ethenol

Call Centers

Education

Zona Franca_ La Romana

Dominican enterprise in free trade zone La Romana International Airport

374,724 passengers US, Canada, Euroupe, Cuba, Pueto Rico

La Romana Neighborhood

Nearly 100% employed to industrial zone or Casa de Campo

Port Cargo Port Cruise Central Romana corporation owns almost areas in La Romana

Casa de Campo

: Resort complex is the flagship of the La Romana All Inclusive Resorts area.

Catalina

Well preserved ecosystem sand dunes, mangroves, and reefs

Zona Franca_Las Americas Dominican enterprise in free trade zone

Hipodromo V Centenario Horse racing

Autodromo Mobil1

San Andras Golf Club

Car racing

Boca Chica

familiy leisure for weekends and holidays

Las Americas International Airport

one of largest airport, 2.7M passenger/year US, Canada, Caribbean, Europe

Caucedo Cargo Port

Connected to Caribbean zone

Zona Franca_ Santiago

Dominican enterprise in free trade zone Santiago

the second largest metropolis in DR 1 M population culture, shopping centers

Golf cource Home of Universities

Cibao International Airport

Caribbean, Central America, US

Metrics of Free 347 Trade Zone typology comparison

310

16,340

$

Export (us$, million) Investment (us$, million)

$1,774

$ Salary

68

Employed

Zona Franca Santiago, 1974 867

368 23

Enterprise

13,089

$ $1,719

Zona Franca Las Americas, 1989

270 11

140

5,918

$ $1,500 Zona Franca La Romano, 1969

FTZ Employment nodal diversity of jobs

Nodal Agglomeration

proliferated and expanded FTZs

Nodal Saturation networked system / infrastructure / benefits

Nodal Agglomeration site deployment

Airport Port Growth Pattern

FTZ Node FTZ New Nodes, Networked

Incentivising Investment case study: FRESH, PlaNYC

Many neighborhoods across New York City are underserved by grocery stores.

The resulting lack of nutritious, affordable fresh food in these neighborhoods has been linked to higher rates of diet-related diseases, including heart disease, diabetes and obesity.

In response, the City has established the Food Retail Expansion to Support Health (FRESH) program. FRESH provides zoning and financial incentives to promote the establishment and retention of neighborhood grocery stores in underserved communities throughout the five boroughs.

COMMUNITY BENEFITS

DEVELOPER INCENTIVES

Improve quality of life Improve property values Create jobs Serve as retail anchors, attracting foot traffic and complementary retail

Zoning Incentives Additional Development Rights Financial Incentives Real Estate Tax Reductions Sales Tax Exemption New York Healthy Food & Healthy Communities Fund NYSERDA Energy Efficiency Benefits

Free Trade Zone 2.0 expanded functionality

Free Trade Zone 2.0 function organizer

FTZ 2.0

city: adaptive / regenerative FTZ CONSTRUCTION SERVICE BUILDING DISPOSAL FACILITIES WATER SUPPLY FOOD SUPPLY HOUSING DREINAGE SEWAGE SYSTEM MATERIAL EQUIPMENT LABOR SERVICES TRANSPORTATION MACHINERY STORE PACKING RECYCLE MANIFACTURE ASSEMBLY

FTZ 2.0

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POST-CRISIS NATURAL CRISIS DOUBLE DIP STUDIO 2011

|

PRE-CRISIS

POST-CRISIS

PRE-CRISIS

POST-CRISIS

PRE-CRISIS

POST-CRISIS

PRE-CRISIS

450

400

350

300

INSECT INFESTATION SLIDES WAVES/SURGES VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS WIND STORMS DROUGHT FAMINE WILD FIRES EXTREME TEMPERATURE

250

150 NUMBER OF EVENTS / YEAR

TRENDS IN NATURAL CRISES

200

100

FLOODS

50

CYCLONES EARTHQUAKES

0 1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

VOLCANO: EYJAFJALLAJOKULL

1 BILLION

TOTAL ECONOMIC LOSS

DAY 1 (1) spiegel online, 04.19.10 (2) onlinemba.com (3) wikipedia

150,000 (3)

ZAMBIA

3.8 mi l (3)

KENYA

14 mi l (2)

ITALY

21 mi l (2)

U.S.A.

3 BILLION

TOTAL ECONOMIC LOSS

(1) spiegel online, 04.19.10 (2) onlinemba.com (3) wikipedia

DAY 3 450,000 (3)

ZAMBIA

10.5mi l (3)

KENYA

42 mi l (2)

ITALY

42 mi l (2)

U.S.A.

6 BILLION

TOTAL ECONOMIC LOSS

DAY 6 900,000 (3)

ZAMBIA

22.8 mi l (3)

KENYA

84 mi l (2)

ITALY

252 mi l (2)

U.S.A.

97% OF FLOWERS DELIVERED TO EUROPE KENYAN FARMS HAVE LAID OFF 5,000 STAFF LOST $1.3M A DAY

KENYA

EARTHQUAKE: JAPAN

JAPAN IS ONE OF THE MOST HEAVILY POPULATED COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD.

35 MILLION PEOPLE,

THE TOKYO-YOKOHAMA REGION, WITH IS THE MOST HEAVILY POPULATED URBAN AREA IN THE WORLD.

JAPAN IS ONE OF THE MOST EARTHQUAKEPRONE COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD.

10% OF THE WORLD’S

EARTHQUAKES OF MAGNITUDE 8.0 OR GREATER DURING THE 20TH CENTURY OCCURRED IN JAPAN OR ITS VICINITY.

17 MILLION PEOPLE,

THE KOBE-OSAKA-KYOTO REGION, WITH IS THE 17TH MOST HEAVILY POPULATED URBAN AREA IN THE WORLD.

THE GREAT HANSHIN EARTHQUAKE JANUARY 17, 1995

AT THE TIME OF THE EARTHQUAKE, THERE WERE THREE EXTREMELY DIFFERENT TYPES OF STRUCTURES IN KOBE.

A. BUILDINGS BUILT PRIOR TO 1971

B. BUILDINGS BUILT BETWEEN 1971 AND 1981

C. BUILDINGS BUILT BETWEEN 1981 - NOW

MOST OF THE OLDER TRADITIONAL HOUSES HAD HEAVY TILED ROOFS WHICH WEIGHED AROUND 2 TONS, INTENDED TO RESIST THE FREQUENT TYPHOONS THAT PLAGUED KOBE, BUT THEY WERE ONLY HELD UP BY A LIGHT WOOD SUPPORT FRAME. WHEN THE WOOD SUPPORTS GAVE WAY, THE ROOF CRUSHED THE UN-REINFORCED WALLS AND FLOORS IN A “PANCAKE” COLLAPSE. NEWER HOMES HAVE REINFORCED WALLS AND LIGHTER ROOFS TO AVOID THIS, BUT ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO TYPHOONS.

UNFORTUNATELY, MANY OF THE BUILDINGS IN KOBE HAD BEEN BUILT BEFORE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRICT SEISMIC CODES.

THE COLLAPSE OF BUILDINGS WAS FOLLOWED BY THE IGNITION OF OVER 300 FIRES WITHIN MINUTES OF THE EARTHQUAKE. RESPONSE TO THE FIRES WAS HINDERED BY THE FAILURE OF THE WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM AND THE DISRUPTION OF THE TRAFFIC SYSTEM.

MAP OF KOBE NEIGHBORHOODS Oishi Chuo Ward Office Kobe City Office Hyogo Ward Office

Nagata

Kobe

Chuo Ward

Nagata Ward Hyogo

Suma Ward

Shiminhiroba Nagata Ward Office

Wadamisaki

Suma Ward Office Osaka Bay Suma

Oishi Chuo Ward Office Kobe City Office Hyogo Ward Office

Nagata

Kobe

Chuo Ward

Nagata Ward Hyogo

Suma Ward

Shiminhiroba Nagata Ward Office

Wadamisaki

Suma Ward Office Osaka Bay Suma

THE AREAS IN RED SUSTAINED THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF FIRE DAMAGE.

Damage Statistics of Reinfored Concrete Buildings for 1995 Earthquake

2000 Damage Light Minor

800 400

Medium

New Seismic Design

1200 Column Hoops

Number of Buildings

1600

Major Unknown

0 Before 1971

1972 - 1981

Construction Year

After 1982

WHEN BUILT BEFORE 1981, JAPAN’S STEEL FRAME BUILDINGS AND NO STIFFENING PLATES AND EXPERIENCED FRACTURE AT FILLET WELDS.

VARIOUS MODES OF FAILURE : A. FRACTURE OF COLUMN, B. BOLT FRACTURE AT BEAM SPLICES, C. DAMAGING INTER-STORY DRIFTS RESULTING FROM DAMAGED BRACING MEMBERS.

METHODS OF ADAPTATION JAPAN INSTALLED RUBBER BLOCKS UNDER BRIDGES TO ABSORB THE SHOCK. BUILDINGS WERE CONSTRUCTED FARTHER APART TO PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING LIKE DOMINOES. THE NATIONAL GOVERNMENT CHANGED ITS DISASTER RESPONSE POLICIES

1943

ok ie

ar

th

qu

ak e

1943 Tottori Earthquake 1944 Tonankai Earthquake 1945 Mikawa Earthquake 1946 Nankaido Earthquake 1948 Fukui Earthquake 1948 1950

1965

Seismic building code begins

Building Standard Law replaced the Urban Building Law

Earthquake Prediction Plan began as a national project

Structural design presecriptions for : 1. Design loads 2. Frame stress 3. Allowable material stress

1968

Updates to: 1. Structural analysis and proportioning of members specified in Structural Standards issued by the Architectural Insitute of Japan.

2. provisions were made to update the Law more frequently as technology develops.

Building Standard Law revised: 1. Large-scale revision of AIJ Standards incorporating shear design for reinforced concrete building 2. Established a review procedure for existing buildings for seismic safety

1990

2000

1993 1994 1995

1968

1924

Urban Building Law

1980

hi r oo kk ki E aid ar t Gr ea o-to hqu t H ho ake a n - ok sh i E i n- a r Aw th a j i qu a Ea ke r tq ua To ke ka ch i -o ki Ea r th qu ak e

1970

2010

Ho

1960

Ku s

1950

hi -

qu r th Ea to 1923 1920

1940

To ka c

1930

ak e

1920

Ka n

1910

1981

2003

1995

Seismic building code begins

2004 Identification of Damaged areas Due to the 1995 Hyogoken-Nanbu Earthquake Using Satellite Optical Images

Repair of roads used to supply daily necessities was prioritized to quickly reestablish lifelines.

Japan has undertaken new measures and strengthened and improved existing ones in order to mitigate earthquake damage.

1. Preparation of a seismic observation network. a Passage of the Earthquake Disaster Management Special Measures Act b Setup of Japan Meteorological Agency, creating a highly-sensitive broadband seismic network that covers the entire country. c Setup of terrestrial high-sensitivity seismographs in 1,228 locations. d. Placement of terrestrial broadband seismographs e. Underground strong-motion seismographs placed at 975 locations. f Placement of GPS continuous observation facilities in 1,456 locations g. Replace existing seafloor seismographs 2. Prompt communication of data obtained through seismic observation a. when large-scale damage is expected, a headquarters is formed in the Prime Minister’s office and an emergency assembly team is convened.

3. Improve earthquake warning bulletins a. anticipate and accurately read P and S waves emitted from the epicenter. b. damage can be reduced by carrying out the following disaster management action before principal shock arrives; - automatic control of trains, elevators, etc.

- avoidance of dangers by transmission to people in buildings, at local governments, etc.

- practical application of data transmission systems such as mobile phones and satellite communications - damage mitigation by turning off electricity, gas, fuel to factory production lines, and other elements that can cause fires, and backing up important data 4. The act for promotion of the earthquake proof retrofit of buildings (Earthquake Retrofitting Promotion Act) a. owners of designated buildings (schools, hospitals, theaters, department stores, offices, and other buildings of at least three stories and 1000 m2) must carry out earthquake-resistance inspections and, if necessary, carry out earthquake retrofitting. Ordinary homes are not included. b. in order to strengthen measures for homes and buildings with insufficient earthquake resistance, designated buildings must undergo earthquake inspection and retrofitting within specified periods. Buildings with insufficient earthquake resistance are to receive not just guidance and advice, but also will receive instructions, be required to make reports, and submit to on-site inspection, and buildings that fail to comply will be publicly identified.

5. Earthquake resistant, seismic isolation, and vibration suppression construction a. Earthquake resistant construction utilizes studs, walls, and other structural elements to absorb seismic forces through elasticity or elastroplasticity. b. seismic isolation construction utilizes equipment such as bearings in foundation, between stories, and so on to absorb seismic energy and prevent buildings from shaking. c. vibration suppression construction utilizes suppression equipment such as dampers in walls to absorb seismic energy and control shaking of the entire building.

6. Making homes and buildings earthquake resistant a. the average cost of retrofitting a home is 2 million yen. b. implement the following support systems for earthquake inspections and retrofitting to ease the cost burden: - subsidy for earthquake inspection and retrofitting of condominium and offices - subsidy for earthquake inspection of single family homes - subsidy for earthquake retrofitting of single family homes c. implement the system throughout Japan 7. Earthquake insurance a. The government helps pay a portion of claims once they reach a certain level. Since April 2005 the limit per earthquake is 5 trillion yen. b. Earthquake insurance is incidental to fire insurance, and is limited to 50 million yen for the structure and 10 million yen for household goods, 30-50 percent of fire insurance coverage.

Premiums are determined based on date of construction, wood or non-wood construction, and risk by prefecture.

8. Hazard maps a. intended to keep disaster damage to a minimum. Along with clearly depicting expected damage zones and degrees of damage on maps, they present evacuation information such as shelters and danger zones in an easy-to-understand format. b. these maps are prepared for Tokyo and six cities including Yokohama and Nagoya. Tsunami hazard maps have been created for only 122 of Japan’s coastal municipalities, about 12 percent of the total of 991. c. The maps indicate schools, community centers, and other evacuation points, but also need to show escape routes or designated evacuation routes.

9. Disaster recovery and reconstruction A Revision of Laws and Plans Amendment of the Disaster Countermeasures Basic Ac Revise and enhance and strengthen the functions of government disaster management headquarters by relaxing the conditions for establishing the Headquarters for Urgent Disaster Management led by the Prime Minister and establishing the on-site disaster management headquarters as a legal entity. Local government disaster management must be strengthened by allowing mayors to call upon prefectural governors to ask for the aid of the Self-Defense Forces revision of the Basic Disaster Management Plan and the Local Disaster Management Plan The Act Concerning Support for Reconstructing Livelihoods of Disaster Victims D Securing Lifelines Electricity Gas Water Sewers 10. Research and development budges for science and technology related to disaster management A Create the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion as a special government organ. This carries out earthquake-related observation, measurement, surveys, and research.

EARTHQUAKE: SAN FRANCISCO

IN COMPARISON TO EARTHQUAKES IN JAPAN, AFTER THE SAN FRANCISCO EARTHQUAKE OF 1906,

THE BUILDING CODE CHANGED VERY LITTLE IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE EARTHQUAKE AND FIRE. -1906 LOMA PRIETA EARTHQUAKE

IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE 1906 EARTHQUAKE, BUILDING RESTRICTIONS WERE DISCOURAGED, BECAUSE IT WAS BELIEVED THEY WOULD PREVENT A FAST RECOVERY.

PERVAISIVE SEISMIC EVENTS EVENTUALLY FORCED CALIFORNIANS TO ADOPT BUILDING CODES AND INSPECTION PROTOCOL. -1933 LONG BEACH EARTHQUAKE

LOMA PRIETA EARTHQUAKE OCTOBER 17, 1989

POST EARTHQUAKE / IMMEDIATE CONDITIONS

SAN FRANCISCO

THE THREE AREAS SUSTAINED THE MOST DAMAGE:

SAN FRANCISCO THE MARINA DISTRICT

THE BAY BRIDGE

THE CYPRESS FREEWAY

POST EARTHQUAKE / IMMEDIATE CONDITIONS

SAN FRANCISCO THE MARINA DISTRICT

THE BAY BRIDGE

THE CYPRESS FREEWAY

THE MARINA DISTRICT THE DOMINANT TYPOLOGY IS 3-4 STORY WOOD FRAME HOUSES WITH SOFT FIRST STORIES. DOWNTOWN, THE DAMAGED BUILDINGS WERE OLDER FOUR TO SIX STORY UN-

POST EARTHQUAKE / IMMEDIATE CONDITIONS

THE BAY BRIDGE MIDDLE BAY OF BRIDGE COLLAPSED, KILLING ONE PERSON

THE COMPLETED FREEWAY AROUND 1959 ...

... AND THE AFTERMATH.

THE CYPRESS FREEWAY 3/4 OF FREEWAY COLLAPSED, KILLING 42 PEOPLE.

POST EARTHQUAKE / IMMEDIATE CONDITIONS

THE LOMA PRIETA EARTHQUAKE GENERATED ACCELERATIONS THAT EXCEEDED DESIGN SPECIFICATIONS FOR ACCELERATION. THIS CAUSED HINGES TO FAIL AND THE UPPER DECKS FELL ONTO THE LOWER DECKS. HOWEVER, MORE RECENT COMPUTER CALCULATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE HINGES COULD HAVE PROVIDED THE NEEDED FORCE TO ACCELERATE THE UPPER DECKS TO 0.3G, GREATER THAN THE MAXIMUM ACCELERATION OF THE LOWER DECK.

ground acceleration

The Physics Teacher Volume 42, October 2004

METHODS OF ADAPTATION

SAN FRANCISCO THE MARINA DISTRICT

THE BAY BRIDGE

THE CYPRESS FREEWAY

DIVISION OF RECONSTRUCTION FUNDING IN THE MARINA DISTRICT : this is 100% of damaged building stock 40% =single family/ single owner

60% was multiple family/ rent agreements

this is 100% of amount spent on residential reconstruction 66% ($750 million) spent on assistance to owner/occupier

34% in assistance to rental/mult. family

this 34% is reduced by 20% ...

... BECAUSE THIS MONEY IS DISPERSED INDIRECTLY, WHICH MEANS IT GOES TO THE OWNER, NOT THE RENTER. THIS MONEY IS USED FOR: A. PRE-DEVELOPMENT EXPENSES B. ORGANIZED OVERHEARD

BUILDING INSPECTION IMPROVEMENTS

WITHIN 72 HOURS OF THE OCTOBER 17TH SAN FRANCISCO EARTHQUAKE, DPW PERFORMED 1,600 BUILDING INSPECTIONS. IN ALL THAT YEAR, OVER 15,000 INSPECTIONS WERE MADE, CLASSIFYING BUILDINGS RED (UNSAFE), YELLOW (LIMITED ENTRY), AND GREEN (SAFE).

TODAY :

DENSITY AND 3-4 STORY WOOD FRAME BUILDING TYPOLOGY ARE BOTH PRESERVED. NEW AND REFURBISHED BUILDINGS ARE CREATED TO MAINTAIN THE ORIGINAL STYLISTIC FLOURISHES, FORM, AND ORNAMENTAL FEATURES.

STATE CODES FOR FREEWAY BRIDGES AND VIADUCTS WERE DRAMATICALLY UPGRADED, AND NEW FREEWAY VIADUCTS AND BRIDGES ARE NOW CONSTRUCTED TO BE LESS RIGID, MORE DEFORMABLE IN A DESTRUCTIVE, ENERGY-ABSORBING (NONELASTIC) WAY, BUT ABLE TO SURVIVE SUCH DEFORMATIONS WITHOUT COLLAPSING.

THE WHOLE DOUBLE-DECK SECTION WAS REPLACED WITH A GROUND-LEVEL FREEWAY. A SIMILARLY CONSTRUCTED EMBARCADERO VIADUCT BUILT ON BAY-FILL IN SAN FRANCISCO, WHICH WAS DAMAGED BUT DID NOT COLLAPSE DURING THE LOMA PRIETA EARTHQUAKE, WAS DEMOLISHED AND NOT REPLACED. OTHER FREEWAY VIADUCTS IN THE BAY AREA WERE QUICKLY RETROFITTED; FOR EXAMPLE, STEEL SHELLS WERE ERECTED AROUND CONCRETE COLUMNS, AND HIGH-STRENGTH RODS WERE DRILLED THROUGH AND UNDER EXISTING COLUMN FOOTINGS.

1940

1950

1960

1933

1939

The Field Act became law as a San Francisco legislative response to the Long building code Beach earthquake. The Act overhaul 1 assigned responsibility for the design and construction of public schools to the State Architect.

2010

th qu a Lo m

1952

2000

ta Ea r

ty Ea r un Co n Ke r

1933

One of the earliest New building code attempts to unify adopted, even though codes on the much of the city was national level was already re-built or under the National Board construction of Fire Underwriters successfully promoting a "Recommended National Building Code."

1990

ke ke Qu a h ac Be g Lo n

1906 1909

1980

th qu a

Ea r o i sc nc Fra tS an Gr

ea

1905

1970

ke

1930

th qu a

1920

aP ri e

1910

ke

1900

1989 1956

1969

San Francisco Ordinance required building code owners to strengthen, remove or replace overhaul 2 parapet walls, cornices, chimneys and other architectural features that tend to fall off in a quake and kill people below.

1975 San Francisco building code overhaul 3

San Francisco building code overhaul 4

1984 1986 New program incorpated into the code that mandated strenghtneing unreinforced masonry. This affected nearly 2,000 brick buildings.

1990 / 1992

1990 - 2020

San Francisco building projected 2-in-3 odds for one code overhauls 5 & 6 or more destructive earthquakes (magnitude 7 or Statewide improvements larger) to strike the Bay between 1990 and 1999: region in the period 1990 to 2020 1991 AB 47 (Eastin) transferred the adoption authority of the following state agencies to the Commission:

Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD), Office of the State Fire Marshal (OFSM), Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development (OSHPD), Office (now Division) of the State Architect (DSA), Several pieces of legislation were introduced at this time in response to the Loma Prieta earthquake.

In particular, AB 204, (Cortese) increased the regulatory authority of the Commission to include, in general, existing buildings having at least one unreinforced, masonry bearing wall. Specifically, AB 204 required the Commission to adopt and publish by reference the Appendix Chapter I of the Uniform Code for Building, Conservation (UCBC) to provide standards for buildings specified in that appendix.

1992 AB 2358 exempted local jurisdictions that, on or before January 1, 1993, adopted programs for mitigating potentially hazardous buildings, from the application of building standards contained in the Uniform Code for Building Conservation (UCBC) as adopted by the Commission.

AB 2963 specified that only the building standards approved by the Commission that are effective at the local level at the time an application for a building permit is submitted, apply to plans and specifications as well as to construction work performed under that building permit.

AB 3515 signed in 1992, was primarily a "clean-up" bill to reorganize and clarify certain provisions in the State Building Standards Law. However, there were three substantive amendments: The bill mandated that the Office of the State Fire Marshal review proposed building standards which, in fact, affect fire and panic safety, regardless of a state agency's intent when the standards were written.

The effective date of regulations that implement or enforce building standards was specified in the Law to be 30 days after filing with the Secretary of State.

1993 AB 1904 expanded the exemption for local jurisdictions that, on or before January 1, 1993, adopted programs for mitigating potentially hazardous buildings, from the application of building standards contained in the Uniform Code for Building Conservation (UCBC) as adopted by the Commission.

AB 2351 deleted Health and Safety Code Subsection 18949.6(d), which had provided for the new annual building code advisory groups.

1994 AB 1780 directed the Commission to prepare a comprehensive listing of all state amendments developed for publication in the California Building Standards Code, Title 24, Part 2, referencing the 1994 Uniform Building Code, for the period beginning January 1, 1995 through December 31, 1995. The bill also required the Commission to determine whether or not existing state amendments in Part 2 continued to be justified under the criteria set forth in the State Building Standards Law, specifically Health and Safety Code Section 18930.

1995 AB 717 added into the State Building Standards Law specific certification, training and continuing education requirements for construction inspectors, plans examiners and building officials who are employed by a local agency in a temporary or permanent capacity. The bill exempts any person currently and continuously employed by a local agency as an inspector, plans examiner or building official, for not less than two years prior to the effective date of the bill, from its training and certification requirements.

This exemption remains in effect until that person obtains new employment, as specified.

AB 1314 added into the State Building Standards Law safety guidelines for the construction of structures that use baled rice straw material. This bill provided that the guidelines shall not become operative within any city or county until an express finding is made and the finding is filed with the Department of Housing and Community Development.

1996 AB 3372 added into the State Building Standards Law authority for the California Building Standards Commission to adopt amendments to the California Building Standards Code if they are substantially the same as model code amendments that were adopted on an emergency basis by the model code publishers, provided the sections of the California Building Standards Code affected are not under the authority of another state agency.

1997 AB 125 added Section 18941.8 in the State Building Standards Law authority for the governing body of the County of Riverside of a city or joint powers authority within the county to adopt an ordinance that allows a building located on the former March Air Force Base to comply with specified provisions establishing state building standards in a graduated manner.

AB 1071 amended Section 18941.7 in the State Building Standards Law to include a specified joint powers agency to adopt an ordinance that allows a building located on a military base selected for closure to comply with the California Building Standards Code in a graduated manner.

1998 AB 2697 amended State Building Standards Law to require that, with regard to proposed residential building standards, the Trade and Commerce Agency, if requested by the State Building Standadrs Commission, to provide an economic review of the housing cost impact statement or related study submitted by a building standards code change proponent.

FLOOD: NEW YORK

MANHATTAN

NEW JERSEY

BROOKLYN

1 FOOT INUNDATION

2 FOOT INUNDATION

ON THE WATER | PALISADE BAY GUY NORDENSON, CATHERINE SEAVITT, ADAM YARINSKY

3 FOOT INUNDATION

3 FOOT INUNDATION

6 FOOT INUNDATION

8 FOOT INUNDATION -

100 YEAR FLOOD

10 FOOT INUNDATION -

14 FOOT INUNDATION

100 YEAR FLOOD

12 FOOT INUNDATION

16 FOOT INUNDATION -

CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE SLOSH

18 FOOT INUNDATION

22 FOOT INUNDATION

20 FOOT INUNDATION

24 FOOT INUNDATION -

CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE SLOSH

METHODS OF ADAPTATION SOFT INFRASTRUCTURE ON THE WATER | PALISADE BAY

WETLAND IMPLEMENTATION

WIND + TIDAL TURBINES

PIERS

ISLANDS

OTHER METHODS OF WATER CONTROL

ENGLAND - WATER GATES

HOLLOW STEEL GATES ON THE THAMES REVOLVE SHUT TO STOP WATER FLOWING AS NEEDED.

THE NETHERLANDS - DAM

THE DAM HAS TWO ENORMOUS ARCH GATES TO CONTROL WATER AND GENERATE POWER.

JAPAN- WATER GATES

“AQUA-DRIVE” MOTORS USE WATER PRESSURE, WHICH CREATES A FORCE THAT OPENS AND CLOSES THE GATES WITHOUT THE USE OF ELECTRICITY.

NEW ORLEANS LEVEE

B A

A

NEW ORLEANS FLOOD ZONES

B

1 MILLION DISPLACED IN GULF REGION

EVACUEE SHELTERS

11.4%

FEMA SHELTERS

PRE KATRINA NEW ORLEANS

27.3%

JULY, 2006 NEW ORLEANS

POP.: 455,188

JULY, 2010 NEW ORLEANS

45% 77%

HOW DO YOU TURN A SMALL TOWN IN CENTRAL IOWA INTO A TOURIST DESTINATION?

FLOOD IT.

FLOOD: CORALVILLE, IOWA

iles

iles

19.5 m

72 m

104 miles

THE FLOOD OF 1993 WAS ONE THE COSTLIEST, MOST DEVASTATING FLOOD IN U.S. HISTORY ACCORDING TO THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY. FLOODWATERS COVERED AS MANY AS 23 MILLION ACRES OF AGRICULTURAL AND URBAN LANDS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR WEEKS. THE FLOOD RESULTED LARGELY DUE TO THE FAILURE OF THE CORALVILLE DAM.

WHILE THE FLOOD CAUSED WIDESPREAD DAMAGE, LOCALLY, THE FLOOD TRANSFORMED A CAMPGROUND INTO WHAT IS KNOWN TODAY AS THE DEVONIAN FOSSIL GORGE.

THE FLOODWATERS SCOURED AWAY AS MUCH AS 15 FEET OF GLACIAL-AGE SEDIMENTS TO EXPOSE AN EXPANSE OF 375 MILLION-YEAR-OLD FOSSILIFEROUS ROCK. THE NUMBER OF VISITORS INCREASED DRAMATICALLY FOLLOWING NATIONWIDE COVERAGE OF THE DISCOVERY, DRAWING VISITORS FROM AS FAR AWAY S AS EUROPE, JAPAN, AND AUSTRALIA.

Total population growth

Total population Iowa

Iowa

Coralville

Coralville

46%

2,421,895

2,265,364

2,172,589

2,124,844

35% 25%

25%

7% 18,907 2010

15,123 2000

10,347 1990

7%

5%

7,687 1980

2010

2000

-2%

1980

COMPARISON OF POPULATION GROWTH IN IOWA VERSUS GROWTH IN 1990 CORALVILLE

Rate of growth

Population of Iowa / Johnson County State of Iowa 3,046,355

2000-2010

Johnson

17.9%

2,926,324

4.1% 130,882 2010

111,006 2000

State of Iowa

Johnson

COMPARISON OF PERCENTAGE INCREASE IN IOWA VERSUS PERCENTAGE INCREASE IN JOHNSON COUNTY

MONSOON: INDIA

INDIA’S ECONOMY AND SOCIETAL INFRASTRUTURES ARE FINELY TUNED TO THE MONSOON

800-1000 400-800 200-400 100-200 60-100 40-60 0-40 ANNUAL RAINFALL (CM)

80%

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

ANNUAL RAINFALL %

ANNUAL RAINFALL / MONTH

MONSOONS ACCOUNT FOR 80% OF ALL RAINFALL IN INDIA.

METHODS OF ADAPTATION

1). DAMS, RESERVOIRS AND OTHER WATER STORAGE 2). DREDGING OF RIVER 3.) DRAINAGE IMPROVEMENT

4).FLOOD PROOFING 5). CATCHMENT AREA TREATMENT/ AFFORESTATION

“promoting construction of doublestorey buildings.”

-Government of India

6). SEA WALLS/ COASTAL PROTECTION 7). FLOOD PLAIN ZONING 8). DIVERSION OF FLOOD WATER “raised platforms for flood shelter.”

-Government of India

National Disaster Management Authority, Government of India

1). DAMS, RESERVOIRS AND OTHER WATER STORAGE 2). DREDGING OF RIVER 3.) DRAINAGE IMPROVEMENT 4).DIVERSION OF FLOOD WATER 5). CATCHMENT AREA TREATMENT/ AFFORESTATION 6). SEA WALLS/ COASTAL PROTECTION NATURAL 100 YEAR FLOOD PLAIN

DEVELOPED 100 YEAR FLOOD PLAIN

7). FLOOD PLAIN ZONING 8). FLOOD PROOFING

National Disaster Management Authority, Government of India

1). DAMS AND RESERVOIRS 2). DREDGING OF RIVER 3.) DRAINAGE IMPROVEMENT 4).DIVERSION OF FLOOD WATER 5). CATCHMENT AREA TREATMENT/ AFFORESTATION 6). SEA WALLS/ COASTAL PROTECTION 7). FLOOD PLAIN ZONING 8). FLOOD PROOFING

National Disaster Management Authority, Government of India

21% OF INDIA’S ENERGY IS GENERATED BY HYDROELECTRIC PLANTS HYDROELECTRIC PLANTS

NATURAL CRISIS AND THE EDGE

SINKHOLES

GUATEMALA

CAUSED BY STORM WATER + LEAKING SEWER SYSTEM.

330’

GUATEMALA CITY, 2007

METHODS OF ADAPTATION

THE GOVERNMENT SPENT $2.7 MILLION REDIRECTING SEWER PIPES IN THE AREA AND FILLING THE HOLE WITH CEMENT.

RESULT: SINKHOLE 2010

THE SOLUTION PERPETUATES THE PROBLEM.

ANTOINE.GUILBAULTHOUDE@ GMAIL.COM

HURRICANE: SANTO DOMINGO

YEARS WITHIN 60 MILES

1873(BRUSH),1876,1883,1889(TROPICAL STORM),1891(BRUSH), 1894(BRUSH),1900(TROPICAL STORM),1901(TROPICAL STORM), 1908(TROPICAL STORM), 1909(TROPICAL STORM)BRUSH),1916(BRUSH), 1918(TROPICAL STORM),1921(BRUSH),1928(TROPICAL STORM), 1930,1931(TROPICAL STORM),1932(BRUSH),1932(TROPICAL STORM), 1943(TROPICAL STORM), 1949,1958(TROPICAL STORM)BRUSH), 1963(BRUSH), 1979,1979(TROPICAL STORM),1987(BRUSH), 1993(TROPICAL STORM),1998, 2003(TROPICAL STORM), 2007(TROPICAL STORM),2008(TROPICAL STORM)

30 TIMES IN 139 YEARS

1930 1979 1998

MAJOR HURRICANES

HOW OFTEN THIS AREA GETS AFFECTED: BRUSHED OR HIT EVERY 4.63 YEARS

HEIGHT

J/AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG A/SEP SEPT SEPT SEPT S/OCT OCT 3-9 10-16 17-23 24-30 31-6 7-13 14-20 21-27 28-4 5-11 27-2

OCT OCT 12-18 19-25

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC PROBABLE STORM EFFECTS

+ 50 YEARS SURGE HEIGHTS

+ 50 YEARS WAVE HEIGHT

+ 50 YEARS WIND SPEEDS ATLAS OF PROBABLE STORM EFFECTS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA

AVERAGE YEARS BETWEEN DIRECT HURRICANE HITS. ONCE EVERY 23.17 YEARS

SAN SOUCI

METHOD(S) OF ADAPTATION

US CITIES HIT MOST OFTEN BY TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES

CAPE HATTERAS, NC HIT EVERY 2.53 YRS

DELRAY BEACH, FL HIT EVERY 2.56 YRS

GRAND ISLE, LA HIT EVERY 2.68 YRS

SANTO DOMINGO HURRICANE BARRIER 2.

THE HIGHWAY HURRICANE BARRIER 1.

THE SITE

SAN SOUCI

HIGHWAYS

SAN SOUCI BOCA CHICA

1,288 KM OF SHORELINE

SITES OF POTENTIAL BARRIER BREAKDOWN

SITES OF POTENTIAL BARRIER BREAKDOWN

SITES OF POTENTIAL BARRIER BREAKDOWN

SITES OF POTENTIAL BARRIER BREAKDOWN

ENERGY CRISIS

BLACKOUT Double Dip Studio Paul Tse Jason Kim

Energy Substition Graph

91%

76%

natural gas

wood 50%

Renewable

oil

24%

9%

2140

2120

2100

2080

2060

2040

2020

2000

1980

1960

1940

1920

1900

1880

1860

1840

1820

1800

3%

1780

% Share

nuclear

coal

animal feed wood coal 1920

1970

1990

2056

2109

oil natural gas nuclear renewable

Problem of different energy sources Oil

Coal

Nuclear

Natural Gas

Oil Spill

Coal Mine Fire

Nuclear Waste

Pipe line Explosion

Global energy flow

oil

fuel

22%

natural gas

coal

nuclear

hydro

other renewable

electricity

wasted

27%

51%

Blackout Categories Unexpected Blackout

Expected Blackout

New York 1977

Britain 1939

Northeastern 2003

Lebanon 1975

Italy 2003

South Africa 2007

Java-Bali 2005

Earth Hour 2007

Unexpected Blackout

Expected Blackout

New York 1977

Britain 1939

Northeastern 2003

Lebanon 1975

Italy 2003

South Africa 2007

Java-Bali 2005

Earth Hour 2007

Unexpected Blackout:

New York 1977 Location: Date: How long: Economic loss: People affected: Cause: Major issues: Death

New York City 13 - 14 July 1977 26 hours $350 Billion 7.8 Million Lightning bolts triking power lines in Westchester Looting and Arson 2

Background Cause Problems Outcome

The 1970s are widely regarded as New York’s nadir. While the city was suffering from economical crisis, it had also become notorious for high rates of crime and other social disorder, such as Son of Sam murders.

New York neared bankruptcy during the administration of Mayor Abraham Beame but avoided that fate with the aid of a large federal loan.

Background Cause Problems Outcome

The blackout occurred when the city was facing a severe financial crisis and its residents were fretting over the Son of Sam murders.

The blackout began at 8:37 p.m. EDT on July 13 with a lightning strike at Buchanan South, a substation on the Hudson River, tripping two circuit breakers in Westchester County.

A second lightning strike caused the loss of two 345 kV transmission lines, subsequent reclose of only one of the lines, and the loss of power from a 900MW nuclear plant at Indian Point. As a result of the strikes, two other major transmission lines became loaded over their normal limits.

However, no one was manning the station, and the remote start failed.

Background Cause Problems Outcome

The city suffered heavy looting and civil unrest during the blackout. Over 3,000 people were arrested, and the city’s already crowded prisons were so overburdened that some suggested reopening the Manhattan Detention Complex that had recently been condemned.

Background Cause Problems Outcome

Background Cause Problems Outcome

1977 Blackout’s impact on Hip Hop Culture DJ Grand Wizzard Theodore (right) who is sometimes credited with having invented the art of record scratching, poses with a fan wearing a 1977 blackout t-shirt.

When I was 11, and that blackout happened, and when we got that

DJ Clark Kent

! " #

$ $ %& GrandMaster Caz

Unexpected Blackout:

Northeastern and MidWestern US and Ontario, Canada 2003 Location: Date: How long: Economic loss: People affected: Cause: Major issues:

Northeastern and Midwestern US and Ontario, Canada 14 August 2003 4 days $7 - $10 Billion 55 Million FirstEnergy’s EastLake plant shut down Transportation stopped, hot sumer and water supply

Background Cause Problems Outcome

Background Cause Problems Outcome

Cascading Failure The cascading effect resulted in forced shut down of more than 100 power plants.

How it all started: tree flashover at 3.05 pm in Eastlake ,Ohio

1:00 pm

2:00 pm

3:00 pm

4:00 pm

5:00 pm

6:00 pm

Manhattan, including Wall Street and the United Nations, was completely shut down, as were all area airports, and all New York area rail transportation including the subway. Hundreds of people were trapped in elevators; by late evening the New York City Fire Department had reportedly confirmed that all stalled elevators in approximately 800 Manhattan high-rise office and apartment buildings had been cleared.

Total Economic Impact All Other States 1 Billion New York 3 Billion

Michigan 994 Million

Connecticut 91 Million

New Jersey 400 Million Ohio 545 Million

Background Cause Problems Outcome

Pennsylvania 223 Million

Background Cause Problems Outcome

Buildings

Before the blackout, a large population of NYC are in the buildings

Background Cause Problems Outcome

Sidewalk

Once the blackout starts, most people evacuate from the building in a short period of

Background Cause Problems Outcome

Road

Very soon, the sidewalk is not enough to accommdate everyone, and people start to take over the road

Walking in the City The most noticeable thing about the power failure was that is quickly demonstrated how many people are in New York City. When most of the people decide to evacuate skyscrapers in a short period of time, that’s a lot of people on the sidewalk! When the sidewalk runs out of room, the people move to the street in front of the bus.

Background Cause Problems Outcome

Drinking on the street

Background Cause Problems Outcome

Volunteers Civilians became volunteers with flashlights joined policemen all over the city at major intersections to help direct traffic on highways and streets left without traffic lights.

Background Cause Problems Outcome

Telephone was the only way to communicate Cellular communication devices were disrupted. This was mainly due to the loss of backup power at the cellular sites where generators ran out of fuel or cell phone batteries ran out of charge. Wired telephone lines continued to work, although some systems were overwhelmed by the volume of traffic, and millions of home users had only cordless telephones depending on house current.

Background Cause Problems Outcome

Dancing in the Dark in Union Square Because of the blackout, people gathered together in park and squares, some of them were dancing and talking the advantage of the blackout

Background Cause Problems Outcome

Reading With computers, movies, video games, cell phones, and everything else begging for attention, it’s nice to have some relief from all of that to make time for yourself and your loved ones. Fewer electronic distractions leaves more time for reading, meditating, playing board games, and relaxing.

Background Cause Problems Outcome

Background Cause Problems Outcome

* Individuals: Power Down for the day and celebrate conservation * Stores and restaurants: Power Down for the day and offer Blackout Day specials * Offices: Power Down and turn off unnecessary equipment * Municipalities: join the Mayor’s Blackout Challenge

Participating municipalities can compete in two different categories: t 5IF IJHIFTU QFSDFOUBHF ESPQ JO FMFDUSJDJUZ DPOTVNQUJPO PO "VH t 5IF IJHIFTU QFS DBQJUB QBSUJDJQBUJPO JO UIF 1PXFS 1MFEHF ESJWF Winners of the Community Challenge earn the right to be considered Ontario’s most conservation-conscious communities, as well as valuable “green� awards.

Unexpected Blackout:

Italy Blackout 2003 Location: Date: How long: Economic loss: Cause: People affected: Major issues:

all of Italy 28 September 2003 12 Hours $7 - $10 Billion A series of failures on power lines from Switzerland and France due to heavy storms.

57 Million Many people were on the stuck in the streets and public transportation in 3:00 am.

Background Cause Problems Outcome

Initial reports from Italy’s electricity supplier, ENEL, stated that the power line which supplied electricity to Italy from Switzerland was damaged by storms, causing it to trip and also the two 400kV power lines between France and Italy to trip due to sudden increased demand from those two power lines.

SWITZERLAND 1

Mettlen

2

Mettlen

Airolo

FRANCE

Soazza Ponte

3.2

3.1

AUSTRIA

Lavorgo

Moerel

Riddes

Sils

Robbia

Gorduno

Sondrio Mese Pallanzeno Avise Musignano Valpelline *Bulciago

Albertville

5-6

Lienz

4 Soverzene Redipuglia Planais

8 Divaca

SLOVENIA

Padriciano Rondissone

Villarodin

7

Venaus

Camporosso Le Broc -Carros

Line of separation from the European grid

Background Cause Problems Outcome

The cascading effect disrupted power supply to Italy from France and Switzerland. ENEL lost control of the grid in the next 4 seconds, with the lines tripped one by one amid the cascading effect.

Frequency behaviour in Italy in the transitory period Separation from European grid

50,500

Loss of all power plants operationg at distribution grid

50,000 49,500 49,000

48,000

47,50

Critical threshold

47,500

definitive blackout

47,000 46,500

03:28:00

03:27:52

03:27:44

03:27:36

03:27:28

03:27:20

03:27:12

03:27:04

03:26:56

03:26:48

03:26:40

03:26:32

03:26:24

03:26:16

03:26:08

03:26:00

03:25:52

03:25:44

03:25:36

03:25:28

03:25:20

03:25:12

03:25:04

03:24:56

03:24:48

03:24:40

03:24:32

03:24:24

03:24:16

45,500

03:24:08

46,000

03:24:00

Hz

48,500

hour

3:25

~2,5 minutes

3:28

Background Cause Problems Outcome

The night of 27 September 2003 is the night of the annual overnight White Night festival in Rome, the capital of Italy.

Thus, many people were on the streets and all public transportation were still operating at the time of the blackout (at about 03:00 on 28 September 2003) despite the fact that it was very late at night. The blackout caused the carnival to end early. Several hundred people were trapped in underground trains.

Background Cause Problems Outcome

Background Cause Problems Outcome

Unexpected Blackout:

Java-Bali Blackout 2005 Location: Date: How long: Economic loss: Cause: People affected: Major issues:

(Largest blackout in terms of population affected)

Java and Bali, Indonesia 18 August 2005 7 Hours $7 - $10 Billion An imbalanced power grid kicks power plants off-line 100 Million Causing a temporary halt in traffic and electric trains

Electricity prodution Electricity consumption

1,800 1,600 1,400 Thousand Barrels oer Day

Power in Jakarta and Banten went out completely while parts of West Java, Central Java, and East Java also experienced blackouts, causing a temporary halt in traffic and electric trains. Most large offices, including the Jakarta Stock Exchange, survived on backup power systems

Background Cause Problems Outcome

1,200 1000 600 500 400 200

200

1990

1994

1998

2002

2006

Countries

Electricication rate in 2008

Population without electricity (in millions)

Indonesia

64 %

81.1

Malaysia

99.4 %

0.2

Philippines

86 %

12.5

Singapore

100 %

0

Thailand

99.3 %

0.4

Background Cause Problems Outcome

Indonesia only has one electricity company, that is PT PLN (Perusahaan Listrik Negara) or State Electricity Company. PT PLN handles both the production and distribution of electricity for the whole country.

3%

33% 36%

10%

coal oil natural gas geothermal Hybro

18%

Similar to Dominican Republic, Lower income families in Indonesia who use 900 Kwh or less of electricity, however, are heavily subsidized by the state, and therefore they don’t have to pay the actual tarif.

Background Cause Problems Outcome

Several Japanese firms have threatened to pull out of Indonesia unless the government fixes electricity supplies, as power cuts have caused production and financial losses.

Background Cause Problems Outcome

Green Factory - Honda Prospect Motor in Indonesia

Source: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2008/07/05/indonesia-business-power-idUKSP8347820080705

Unexpected Blackout

Expected Blackout

New York 1977

Britain 1939

Northeastern 2003

Lebanon 1975

Italy 2003

South Africa 2007

Java-Bali 2005

Earth Hour 2007

Expected Blackout:

World War II Blackout as Wartime Strategy Location: Britain Date: How long:

Sep. 1, 1939 - Sep. 17, 1945 1939-1944 Evenings (Dim-out Law 1944-45)

People affected: Cause: Major Issues: Deaths:

Country-wide Law to protect against enemy bombs Unevening Electricity Ration Cycles from city to city Deaths Caused by Energy Protests

Background Cause Problems Outcome

The blackout began two days before the war began (1 September 1939). Under blackout rules, everyone had to cover up their windows at night with black material. This was to make it difficult for german bombers to find their target in the dark.

The street lamps were turned off and often people bumped into one another. Traffic accidents were common because car headlights had to be blacked out, and deaths from drowning increased as people fell off bridges or walked into ponds.

London under blackout conditions.

On 17 September 1944, the blackout was replaced by a partial “dimout�.

Background Cause Problems Outcome

Adaptations (Automobiles) The king’s surgeon, Wilfed Trotter, wrote an article for the British Medical Journal where he pointed out that by “frightening the nation into blackout regulations, the Luftwaffe was able to kill 600 British citizens a month without ever taking to the air, at a cost to itself of exactly nothing.”

Background Cause Problems Outcome

Adaptations (Pedestrians) The blackout carried dangers of its own. Many people were injured, falling over street furniture, wandering unknowingly into the roads, banging into street lamps and other people that they couldn’t see.

Torches also had to be covered with paper, so that they were very dim. Initially, even torches weren’t allowed, but the government relented on this by 1940, provided the torch was covered by tissue paper.

Background Cause Problems Outcome

Cinema In November 1939 the government agreed that churches, markets and street stalls could be partially illuminated. It was also agreed that restaurants and cinemas could use illuminated signs but these had to be put out when the air raid sirens sounded.

Background Cause Problems Outcome

Cinema was an entertainment for a large spectrum of people because the tickets were cheap. The cinema attendances reached its peak in 1946 – 1/3 of the population were going once a week and 13% twice a week. Going to the cinema was common Saturday night entertainment. People also went to watch football frequently.

1946 1635.00

1500

1933 903.00 500

DIM-OUT

1000

BLACKOUT

Cinema Attendance (million)

Background Cause Problems Outcome

1984 54.00

0 1930

1940

1950

1960

decade

1970

1980

1990

2000

Expected Blackout:

Lebanon’s Daily Powercuts Location: Date: How long:

Lebanon Largely triggered by civil war1975 Daily (Ranging from 3-12 hours a day)

People affected: Cause: Major Issues: Deaths:

Country-wide Aging Infrastructure/Power Deficit/Attacks on Power plants Unevening Electricity Ration Cycles from city to city Deaths Caused by Energy Protests

Background Cause Problems Outcome

Background Cause Problems Outcome

Electricitty Shortage: While physical access to electricity is good, performance of the electricity sector has declined at an accelerating pace over the past decade.

Lebanon has a high level of electrification, with near universal network coverage at 99 percent, but supply remains a serious problem. No new power generation capacity has been added since the two combined cycle plants were installed in the 1990s.

- World Bank

Power Plant

Built in

Installed Capacity (MW)

Zouk Jieh Deir - Ammar Baalbeck Tyr Zahrani Alhreesha Hydro

1984 1970 1998 1996 1996 1998

607 346 435 70 70 435 75 220 2258 1600

*about 150-225 MW is imported from Syria

Total before Distribution Total after Distribution

“At present, Lebanon produces less than 1,600 MW of electricity although the country requires at least 2,400 MW. “ - The Dail Star

Substations Hydro-plant Thermalplant Transmission Lines Beirut

Wars: Smoke rising from the Jieh Power Station in the early hours of the morning straight after a missile attack on Friday July 14th, 2006.

Foreign investment, however, helped revive the plant numerous times until presently, although today the main problem is the lack of adequate fuel supply from the government that is needed to run the plant. Recent deals with the Arab states of the Persian Gulf have been sought to receive discounted fuel to ensure good supply to the power plants. According to current news articles, Jieh’s power plant is undergoing extensive maintenance due to neighbouring Syria’s recent cut of power supply to parts of Lebanon, meaning that the Jieh plant is on its way to full service again.

Background Cause Problems Outcome

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Jiyeh_Power_Station_oil_spill_ cleanup,_USAID_2006.jpg

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/3/3a/ Jieh_power_station_fire.JPG

The Jiyeh Power Station oil spill is an environmental disaster caused by the release of heavy fuel oil into the eastern Mediterranean after storage tanks at the thermal power station in Jiyeh, Lebanon, 30 km (19 mi) south of Beirut, were bombed by the Israeli Air force on July 14 and July 15, 2006 during the 2006 IsraelLebanon conflict. The plant’s damaged tanks leaked 20,000 to 30,000 tonnes of oil into the eastern Mediterranean Sea, comparable in size to the Exxon Valdez oil spill. A 10 km wide oil slick covered 170 km of coastline, and threatened Turkey and Cyprus.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Lebanon_oil_beach.jpg

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2008-01-27-beirut_N.htm Background Cause Problems Outcome

Outcomes (Riots):

7 die in worst riots in Beirut in a year (1/27/2008) BEIRUT (AP) — Protesters angry about electricity rationing clashed with Lebanese troops Sunday in Beirut’s worst riots in a year, and seven people were killed, hospital and security officials said.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,325871,00.html

...

Electricity cutoffs in recent months were extended for the first time to Beirut, where more than 1 million Lebanese live.

Source: http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2008-01-27-beirut_N.htm

http://www.nowlebanon.com/Arabic/NewsArchiveDetails.aspx?ID=29438

Background Cause Problems Outcome

Solution (Powercuts and Rationing): Electricity rationing is characterized by inequity. While some regions go without public electricity for 12-13 hours every day, administrative Beirut is subject to 3 hours o f daily blackouts.

- World Bank

Power Blackout

24

3

20 16

10

9

10

12 13

12 8 4 0 Beirut

MountLebanon

North

Bekaa

South

Nabatieh - World Bank

Background Cause Problems Outcome with generators without generators

Generators vs EDL Electricity: As a result of electricity rationing the majority of households rely heavily on private generators during blackouts. It i s estimated that one third o f all electricity generated in Lebanon, comes from private generators. Fifty eight percent of households use some form o f self generation. Private generation is a booming business.

Share of households willing to pay increased amount

Willingness to Pay Extra

100

80

60

40

20

0 0

50

100

150

200

Increase Over

Willingness to pay is related to, but not dependent on, whether or not a household uses a generator. While 61 percent o f households with a private generator were willing to pay at least something more, only 39 percent o f those without a generator were willing to pay more.

24 Beirut

Hours of EDl Daily service

20

16

South

12

North

Mount Lebanon

Nabatieh Bekaa

8

4 0

20

40

60

Share of householde using generator (%)

80

100

Expected Blackout:

South Africa’s Daily Blackout (07-08) and 2010 FIFA’s Blackout immunity Location: Date: How long:

South Africa Rolling blackouts began October 2007-2008 Daily

People affected: Country-wide Cause: Aging Infrastructure/ No international investments Major Issues: Mining industry in major decline because of shared link with electrical industry.

Background Cause Problems Outcome

Background Cause Problems Outcome

Electricity Shortage: Installed Capacity (MW)

Power Plant

Built in

Coal Arnot Duvha Hendrina Kendal Kriel Lethabo Majuba Matimba Matla Tutuka Medupi (new) Camden (return service) Grootvlei (return service) Komati

1975 1980 1970 1988 1976 1985 1996 1980 1982 1985 2016 1967 1969 1961

2100 3600 2000 4116 3000 3708 4110 3990 3600 3654 4788 1600 1200 1000

Nuclear Koeberg

1984

1930

Hydro Gariep Vanderkloof First Falls Second Falls Colley Wobbls Ncora Drakensberg Palmiet Inula (new)

1971 1982 1971 1971 1971 1971 1981 1988 2012

360 240 6.4 11 42 24 1000 400 1332

Gas turbine Acacia Port Rex Gourikwa Gas I (new)

1976 1976 2007 2007

171 171 592 1036

Wind Klipheuwel

2002

3.2 50229

*South Africa also exports electricity to its neighboring countries which contributes to the overall consumption of 35000 MW

Eskom generates approximately 95% of electricity used in South Africa Substations Hydro-plant Thermalplant Transmission Lines

Total before Distribution

With the freeze on any new developments being placed on Eskom during the early 1990s, the country was faced with a situation where for the next few years the electricity demand kept rising, without any new power stations being built to keep up the necessary supply. By October 2007 the situation had deteriorated to such an extent that Eskom implemented rolling blackouts throughout the country.

Blackouts occurred in most suburbs throughout the country for a period of two hours at a time.

Background Cause Problems Outcome

In January and February 2008 global platinum and palladium prices hit record highs as mines were first shut down and subsequently restricted in their electricity use. South Africa supplies 85% of the world’s platinum and 30% of palladium.

Electricity Blackout

Ecnonomic Impacts:

2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400

Dec 10

Dec 09

Dec 08

Dec 07

Dec 06

Dec 05

Dec 04

Dec 03

Dec 02

Dec 01

Dec 00

Dec 98

Dec 97

Dec 96

Dec 95

Dec 94

Dec 93

Dec 92

Jan 92

200

http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7213358.stm

“The power we are having is not enough for us to take people underground,” -Reidwaan Wookay, Gold Fields

World Cup and Blackout Precautions Diesel Generators (Active Measures) The broadcasting of each game will be run by diesel generators to avoid any possible disruptions.

Eskom said it would secure a buffer of 2,000 MW to ensure a blackout-free event and enlisted the help of its neighbours to have an additional 700 MW on stand-by. http://af.reuters.com/article/sportsNews/idAFJOE59M0KF20091023?p ageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0

Saving Electricity (Passive Measures) Eskom is introducing a new system on public television channels this week with a referee holding up coloured cards to indicate the power situation, ranging from green for stable supply to black when power grid load shedding begins.

Background Cause Problems Outcome

Post World Cup and Blackout

Background Cause Problems Outcome

The South African arena that hosted the 2010 World Cup final cannot stage a league game on Saturday because cable theft has deprived the ground of power. (4 February 2011)

http://www.jcbdirt.com/tag/soccer/

Expected Blackout:

Earth Hour Location: Date: How long:

Varies Last Saturday of March 1 hour

People affected: Participants Cause: Campaign

Background Cause Problems Outcome

Background Cause Problems Outcome

2008 Participating Cities Earth Hour is a global event organized by WWF (World Wide Fund for Nature, also known as World Wildlife Fund) and is held on the last Saturday of March annually, asking households and businesses to turn off their non-essential lights and other electrical appliances for one hour to raise awareness towards the need to take action on climate change. Earth Hour was conceived by WWF and The Sydney Morning Herald in 2007, when 2.2 million residents of Sydney participated by turning off all non-essential lights. Following Sydney’s lead, many other cities around the world adopted the event in 2008 Asia

Europe

Bangkok, Thailand Manila, Philippines New Delhi, India Tel Aviv, Israel

Aalborg, Denmark Århus, Denmark Copenhagen, Denmark Dublin, Ireland Odense, Denmark

North America Atlanta, United States Baltimore, United States Chicago, U.S. Montreal, Canada Ottawa, Canada Phoenix, Arizona, U.S. San Francisco, U.S. Sarnia, Canada Toronto, Canada Vancouver, Canada

Oceania Adelaide, Australia Brisbane, Australia Canberra, Australia Christchurch, New Zealand Darwin, Australia Hobart, Australia Melbourne, Australia Perth, Australia Suva, Fiji Sydney, Australia

South America Bogotá, Colombia Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia

Background Cause Problems Outcome

2011 Participating Countries

Africa

Réunion Rwanda Algeria São Tomé and Príncipe Angola Senegal Benin Seychelles Botswana Sierra Leone Burkina Faso Somalia Burundi South Africa Cameroon Sudan Cape Verde Swaziland Central African Republic Tanzania Chad Togo Comoros Tunisia Congo Uganda Democratic Republic of the Congo Zambia Djibouti Zimbabwe Egypt Equatorial Guinea Asia Eritrea Ethiopia Afghanistan Gabon Armenia Gambia Azerbaijan Ghana Bahrain Guinea Bangladesh Guinea-Bissau Bhutan Ivory Coast Brunei Kenya Burma Lesotho Cambodia Liberia China Libya Georgia Madagascar Hong Kong Mali India Malawi Indonesia Mauritania Iran Mauritius Iraq Morocco Israel Mozambique Japan Namibia Jordan Niger Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan Laos Lebanon Macau Malaysia Maldives Mongolia Nepal North Korea Northern Mariana Islands Oman Pakistan Palestine Philippines Qatar Saudi Arabia Singapore South Korea Sri Lanka Syria Taiwan Tajikistan Thailand Timor-Leste Turkmenistan United Arab Emirates Uzbekistan Vietnam Yemen

Nigeria

Kuwait

Albania Andorra Austria Belarus Belgium Bosnia and Herzegovina Bulgaria

Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Faroe Islands Finland France Germany Gibraltar Greece Hungary Iceland Italy Kosovo Latvia Liechtenstein Lithuania Luxembourg Macedonia Malta Moldova Monaco Montenegro Netherlands Norway Northern Cyprus Poland Portugal Republic of Ireland Romania Russia San Marino Serbia Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland

Anguilla Oceania Aruba Antigua and Barbuda American Samoa Bahamas Australia Barbados Fiji Belize Guam Bermuda Kiribati British Virgin Islands Marshall Islands Canada Micronesia, FederCayman Islands ated States of Costa Rica Nauru Cuba New Caledonia Dominica New Zealand Dominican Republic Niue El Salvador Palau Grenada Samoa Guadeloupe Tahiti Guatemala Tuvalu Haiti Tonga Honduras Papua New Guinea Jamaica Solomon Islands Mexico Vanuatu Martinique Montserrat Netherlands Antilles Nicaragua South America Panama Puerto Rico Argentina Saint Kitts and Nevis Brazil Saint Lucia Bolivia Saint-Martin Chile Saint Vincent and the GrenColombia adines Ecuador

Croatia

Turkey

Sint Maarten

Europe

Ukraine United Kingdom Vatican City North America

Trinidad and Tobago Turks and Caicos Islands USA U.S. Virgin Islands

French Guiana

Guyana Paraguay Peru Suriname Uruguay Venezuela

Antarctica Antarctica

Currently 237 Countries Pledged to Participate in 2011 Earth hour

Electricity Reduction According to WWF Thailand, Bangkok decreased electricity usage by 73.34 megawatts, which, over one hour, is equivalent to 41.6 tonnes of carbon dioxide.

In the Philippines it was noted by the Philippine Electricity Market Corp. that power consumption dropped by about 78.63 megawatts in Metro Manila, and up to 102.2 megawatts in Luzon island.

Toronto saved 900 megawatt-hours of electricity.

8.7% was saved if measured against a typical March Saturday night.

Ireland, as a whole, had a reduction in electricity use of about 1.5% for the evening. In the three-hour period between 18:30 and 21:30, there was a reduction of 50 megawatts, 60 tonnes of carbon dioxide.

In Dubai, where external lighting on several major city landmarks was turned off and street lighting in selected areas was dimmed by 50%, the Electricity and Water Authority reported savings of 100 megawatt-hours of electricity.

The best result was from Christchurch, New Zealand.

The city reported a drop of 13% in electricity demand.

Melbourne, Australia saved 10.1% of electricity. Sydney, being the city that participated both 2007 and 2008 Earth Hour, cut 8.4% electricity consumption. This is less than last year’s 10.2%.

Background Cause Problems Outcome

2011 Participating Countries

Background Cause Problems Outcome

“In Tel Aviv, Israel, a free concert by Knesiyat Hasekhel was held at Rabin Square. Power needed for the concert was generated by a group of cyclists pushing pedal generators. The rest of the power was supplied by generators burning used falafel oil for power.�

http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/pedalpowered-rock-in-telaviv/2008/03/28/1206207407976.html

Blackout in DR

Main Causes High levels of losses Poor Bill collection Inefficient Distribution Infrastructure Subsidized tariffs

Energy theft

Refused to pay

Poor electrcity system

Unsatisfied customers

Background Cause Problems Outcome

DR electricity structure Generation Plant

Distribution Private 86% Public 14%

Laesa 1.2% Monte Rio 2.9%

EdeSur Uni贸n Fenosa

EdeNorte

Transcontinental Capital Corp 3.4% Itabo 18.6%

Transmission

IPP 15.2%

Fondo Patrimonial de las Empresas (FONPER).

CEPP 2.3%

Hydroelectric 13.8%

In the Dominican Republic, there are three distribution companies. The government owns two of them, EdeNorte and EdeSur, through the CDEEE (50%) and the Fondo Patrimonial de las Empresas (FONPER). It also maintains a 50% ownership of the third one, EdeEste, (the additional 50% is owned by the Trust Company of the West (TCW)which is operated by AES Corporation, its original buyer.

Metaldom 1.2% AES 16.4%

Haina 19%

86% of generation capacity is privately owned (excluding self-generation), and 14% is publicly owned.

The transmission system, which is under the full responsibility of the state-owned company ETED (Electricity Transmission Company), consists of 940 km of 138kV single-line circuit lines.

Consumers

Alternative Power

Cause: Inefficient Distribution Infrastructure

Background Cause Problems Outcome

Substations Hydro-plant Thermalplant Transmission Lines

Hydro-plants produce about 469.3 MW but about half is lost when traveling to the coastal regions Punta Cana, a mjor tourist destination, has created its own vertical/offthe-grid power plant to facilitate tourism industry

Santo Domingo acts as an electrical hub for Dominican Republic, as it most populated with power plants and sends electricyt out to other parts of the country

Background Cause Problems Outcome Distribution is the most problematic element of the country's power system. Distribution losses in the Dominican Republic have historically been high and have increased even further in recent years. In 2005, the percentage of losses was 42.5%, up from 28.5% in 2002. This is far above the 13.5% average for LAC.

Cause: Inefficient Distribution Infrastructure 2,000,000 450,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 -100,000

Substations Hydro-plant

Puerto Plata

Thermalplant Transmission Lines Santiago La Vega

San Francisco de Macoris

Hydro-plants produce about 469.3 MW but about half is lost when traveling to the coastal regions

Santo Domingo San Cristobal

San Pedro de Macoris

La Romana

Punta Cana, a mjor tourist destination, has created its own vertical/offthe-grid power plant to facilitate tourism industry

Santo Domingo acts as an electrical hub for Dominican Republic, as it most populated with power plants and sends electricyt out to other parts of the country

Cause: Inefficient Distribution Infrastructure Service quality in the Dominican Republic has suffered a steady deterioration since the 1980s. Frequent and prolonged blackouts result mainly from financial causes (i.e. high system losses and low bill collection) that are further aggravated by technical factors (i.e. unadequate invest-

51% actual usage

Background Cause Problems Outcome

Chart showing energy loss during distibution in D.R.

45% Distribution losses

4% Transmission losses

Cause: Illegal Connections Distribution networks cover 88% of the population, with about 8% of the connections thought to be illegal

8% illegal connections

disconnected

connected

Background Cause Problems Outcome

Alternative sources for self-generation

Diesel generator seller in Dominican Republic - detroit diesel generators for sale rebuild and used units prices from 1000-4000 usd.

Background Cause Problems Outcome

Battery backup cost about 20,000 U.S. D, it is quieter and simpler to maintain, a person does not need to buy gas or diesel.

http://www.tradeboss.com/default.cgi/action/viewproducts/productid/76654/productname/20kw_Detroit_Diesel_generator/

21 Jul 2009

The Justice Ministry’s Anti-Corruption Department (DPCA) on Monday charged the former director of the now defunct Blackouts Reduction Program (PRA), Marcos Lara, as well as the financial director Nicolas Conception and administrative manager Sauris Rodriguez with embezzling State funds.

Background Cause Problems Outcome

The Blackout Reduction Program (PRA) was established by the government in 2001.

The poorest neighborhoods in the cities were to have a provision of about 20 hours of electricity per day at a price highly subsidized by the government and the utility.

The PRA was initially considered a success. However, the country’s macroeconomic crisis, the perverse incentives built into the PRA, and the deficiently targeted subsidy scheme have jeopardized the medium-term sustainability of the program. The absence of demand management, the lack of metering systems, sustained losses, a culture of non-payment and the absence of incentives for the distribution companies to fix the technical problems make it urgent to design a new subsidy and rationing system that is part of a more comprehensive approach to solve the problems of the power sector.

The program was closed in 2010.

So: http://dominicanwatchdog.org/dominican_news/page-Three_ex_Blackouts_Reduction_Program_officials_charged_with_embezzlement

Hypothesis 1: Pragmatic Solution

Sustainable energy

Existing dams in Dominican Republic

5 6 2 14

11 10 1 7

8 15 13 3

12 9

4

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Hydro plant

Capacity: (millions of m鲁*)

Jimenoa Rio Blanco Las Barias Aguacate Chacuey Maguaca Rinc贸n Sabaneta Valdesia Tavera Bao Jiguey Yaque del Sur Monci贸n Hatillo

0.3 1.1 1.7 4.3 13.7 15.6 60 63 137 137 150 167 354 369 375

Potential area for hydropower network based on typography and dam locations

Hydro Power Ring

Annual wind power desity 500-600 300-400 200-300 100-200 50-100 0-50

Potential area for wind electricity based on wind density Megawatts 3,000 - 5,000 2,000 - 3,000 1,000 - 2,000 500 - 1,000 100 - 500 <100

Potential area for solar electricity based on wind density kWh/ m2/ day 6.5 - 7.0 6.0 - 6.5 5.5 - 6.0 5.0 - 5.5 4.5 - 5.0 4.0 - 4.5

Ideal sustainable energy generation locations Hydro Wind Solar

Dancing â&#x20AC;&#x153;Every module can produce up to 20 Watt and you can connect up to 160 dance floor modules to one controller module creating a 3200 Watt energy system.â&#x20AC;?

-Sustainable Club

Source: sustainabledanceclub.com

Exercise Recent trends have installed Green Revolution Generators that attach to cycles to harness human energy into electricity.

Source: usatoday.com

Source: usatoday.com

Source: nytimes.com

â&#x20AC;&#x153;estimates a spinning class of 20 people over a year could light 72 homes for a month. ReRev says a 30-minute workout on one of its ellipticals generates about 50 watts, enough to run a laptop for an hour or charge a cellphone six times.â&#x20AC;?

-USA Today Source: greenrevolution.com

Source: spinning.com

Hypothesis 2: Alternative Solution

Blackout Tactics

Unexpected Blackout

Expected Blackout

New Use of Public Space

Self Generators

Social Interconnections

Densified activities

Cultural Emergence

Warning Signal

Rotation Schedule

Chart showing energy loss during distibution in D.R.

Even through the overall electricity production is enough to meet the demand of consumption, the actual electricity supply is still lower than demand after 50% of distribution losses.

51% actual usage

16

45% Distribution losses

14 4% Transmission losses

12

Billion kWh

10 8 6 4 2 0

Electricity net production Electricity net consumption Electricity after distribution losses Electricity installed capacity

The Dominican Republic maintains an electrical deficit of 6.88 billion kWh (annually of 1251 hours) that is subsidized by self generated power, this deficit would otherwise be blackout periods.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

Generation 14.58 Billion kWh 52.8 % 7.70 Billion kWh

47.2 % Loss 6.88 Billion kWh Lost

Self Generated Consumption 12.87 Billion kWh Electrical Deficiency 6.88 Billion kWh (6880 MWh) 6,880,000 MWh / 5500 MW (Generator Capacity)

8766 hours

1251 hours

Electricity Generation

Blackout

Self Generated

Power

Electricity Consumption

= 1251 hours

Dominican Republic Blackout Schedule 8766 hours

1251 hours every year

Jan

Feb

March

April

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

104 hours every month

Feb

Jan

March

4

April

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

2

8

4

6

Dec

Jan

8766 hours

12

16

20

24

28

3.5 hours every day

0

Jan

8766 hours

24 hours every week

0

Dec

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

32

36

40

48

52

Potential Activities According to Blackout Schedules

Daytime Public Space

Sleep hours Blackout Power 0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Retreat

Communications

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Cinema

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Reading

Dancing

0

2

4

6

8

10

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14

16

18

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Crisis

Strategy

Ideological

Crisis

MODERNIST MODERNIST TENENTS TENENTS 1945-1969 1945-1969

oundary -Boundary Endless - Endless

risis Duration Crisis(years) Duration (years)

roject Development Project Development Design, Build Design, Build

rogram

Program

ensity

Density

NO-STOP NO-STOP CITY CITY ARCHIZOOMARCHIZOOM

No-Stop CityNo-Stop is an ironic Citycritique is an ironic of the critique ideology of the of ideology of architecturalarchitectural modernism modernism taken to its absurd taken tolimits. its absurd It is a limits. It is a revolution of revolution kitsch: mass of kitsch: cultural mass consumption, cultural consumption, pop art pop art through an through industrial-commercial an industrial-commercial language. language.

No-Stop CityNo-Stop is without Cityboundaries, is without boundaries, artificially litartificially and lit and air-conditioned. air-conditioned.

Elements ofElements No-Stop of City No-Stop can been Cityseen can in been seen in contemporary contemporary North American Northsuburban Americansprawl, suburban shopping sprawl, shopping malls, supermarkets, malls, supermarkets, flood lighting, flood andlighting, mass-airconditioned and mass-airconditioned evironmentsevironments such as Dubai. such as Dubai.

NONO BELIEF BELIEF 1945-1965 1945-1965 Density Density shift shift

AGRONICA AGRONICA

ANDREA ANDREA BRANZI BRANZI Boundary Boundary

CrisisCrisis Duration Duration (years) (years) Project Project Development Development

Agronica Agronica 1993-94,1993-94, Eindhoven1999 Eindhoven1999

Program Program

Density Density

Design,Design, Build Build

Agronica Agronica believes believes that the that laissez-faire the laissez-faire developments developments led toled to social,social, cultural, cultural, intellectual, intellectual, economic, economic, environmental environmental and and aesthetic aesthetic failings failings of theof city. theThe city.soft Thesystem soft system of “ weak of “ weak urbanization” urbanization” is flexible, is flexible, reversible, reversible, evolutionary, evolutionary, provisionary. provisionary.

Agronica Agronica is an infrastructural is an infrastructural field with field with dispersed dispersed operators operators

Critical to success:

Agricultural lands Mass deployment of infrastructural network Interdependant relationship of programs Technology

Notion:

We have passed into an era of persistant uncertainty and continuous transition

Proposal:

Create a continuous system of relational forces and ows as opposed to a collection of objects

Beneets:

Flexible Reversible Evolutionary Provisional

Disadvantages:

Increased consumption of land per person Potential weakening of social and cultural networks Undetermined Increased circulation between nodes

Migration

Crisis

LONDON INDUSTRIALIZATION 1800-1900 Population(500 000)

Crisis Duration (years) Project Development Design, Build

Program

Density

GARDEN CITY EBENEZER HOWARD

Spurred by the Industrial revolution, Londons population quadruples in one century. Inadequate housing, overcrowding, disease, and pollution stimulate a desire for town-country development.

Critical to success:

Scale: 32 000 residents High speed infrastructural link to the City Mix of incomes and housing types Greenbelt separation of City and Garden City

Notion:

There is a harful relationship of density and program in the Industrial City

Proposal:

Separate Work and Residence; City and Garden City

Proposal Beneets:

Increased Light to residence Increased open space Increased privacy

Proposal Disadvantages:

Increased commute times Increased social and cultural isolation Decreased accessibility to public services and institutions Increased consumption of land and infrastructure per peson

Garden City vs Suburbia: What went wrong?

Shift in scale: discrete communities of 32 000 people became blanket development at the city perifery Suburbia is characterized by the single family house, homogenous income levels Auto-centric infrastructure instead of rail infrastructure

vs

GREAT MIGRATION, CHICAGO 1880-1930 Population(500 000)

Crisis Duration (years) Project Development

Design, Build

High-Rise City 1924, Decentralized city 1938, SouthSide Chicago 1944, LaFayette 1956

Program

Density

DECENTRALIZED CITY LUDWIG HILBERSEIMER

7 million African Americans moved from the Southern United States to the Midwest, Northeast and West from 1910 to 1930, and again 1940-1970 to seek jobs in industrial cities. By the end of the Great Migration, African Americans had become an urbanized population.

TOKYO URBANIZATION 1950-1960 Population(500 000)

Crisis Duration (years) Project Development Design, Build

Program

Density

TOKYO BAY

KENZO TANGE Urbanization occured post-war as people moved to metropolitan areas in search of better jobs and education.Tokyo experienced a large housing demand which it could not satisfy.

Critical to success:

Central infrastructural spine Potential growth of the system Program on perpendicular axes Buildings in the water supported on piloti.

Notion:

Urban planning strategies are not suďŹ&#x192;cient to accomodate current and future demand in housing.

Proposal:

Create a technocratic exible infrastructural system that will allow for unlimited growth

Proposal Beneets:

Increased density Potential for growth Mix of residential, industrial and infrastructural Proximity to nature

Proposal Disadvantages:

Limited pedestrian accessibility Dead-end circulation Little public space weak connection to the city

BEIJING URBANIZATION RBANIZATION SENT2006-PRESENT

00)

ars)

Population(500 000)

Crisis Duration (years)

Program

Density

MEGA BLOCK MEGA BLOCK LINKED HYBRID LINKED HYBRID STEVEN HOLL

STEVEN HOLL

city previously owned by the for Large city blocks previouslyLarge owned byblocks the formerly Communist government are sold off tothe developers to accom government are sold off to developers to accomodate citys expanding These large parcels are dev expanding needs. These large parcels needs. are developed as walled gated Hybrid, Megadevelopments.

Linked Hybrid, Steve gated Megadevelopments. Linked Steven Holl, challenged traditional maga block developmentsby traditional maga block developmentsby reconsidering tower scale, reconsid community space, program and permeability community space, program and permeability

GREEN MIGRATION 1987-PRESENT ‘Sustainability’ was first defined by the Brundtland Commission of the United Nations on March 20, 1987 Population(500 000)

Crisis Duration (years) Project Development

Program

Density

MASDAR FOSTER + PARTNERS Fueled by an increasing ecological consciousness and ambition, Masdar is a plan for a zero-carbon city and sustainable research center outside of Abu Dhabi

RELIGIOUS MIGRATION Population(500 000)

Crisis Duration (years)

Project Development

Program

Density

MENA TENT CITY

SL, RASCH 5 km east of Mecca, Mina has been a pilgrimage site since the 7th century. The tent city accomodates upto 4 million people at a time with 20-40 people per tent

Infrastructure

Crisis

NYC INFRASTRUCTURE RASTRUCTURE 62 1910-1962

000)

Population(500 000)

ears) Crisis Duration (years)

Project Development (1962-1970) ment (1962-1970) Design, Build

Program

Density

Design, Build

LOMEX

PAUL RUDOLPH

LOMEX

PAUL RUDOLPH

NYC saw marked1910-1920 increases (27%) in population 1910-192 NYC saw marked increases in population and 1930The city also a marked Paul increase in 1940 (18%). The city also 1940 saw a(18%). marked increase in saw automobiles.

Rudolph proposed a congolmeration Rudolph proposed a congolmeration of housing, parking lots, of housing, transport infrastructure inabove a hugethe mega-structure transport infrastructure in a huge mega-structure Mosesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; planned expressway in lower Manhattan planned expressway in lower Manhattan

Critical to success:

Density: building at the infrastructural scale Linear arrangement Integrate housing, transportation and public programs Multiple types of transportation: minimum 4 types

Notion:

Movement through the city is the most common shared experience

Proposal: Join housing, public programs and transportation in one super-structure

Proposal Beneets:

Increased density Increased vehicular accessibility

Proposal Disadvantages:

Decreased planimetric hierarchy of spaces Decreased pedestrain comfort and accessibility Decreased access to light and air Decreased accress to nature

HNOLOGY TECHNOLOGY CRISIS CRISIS 0-19701960-1970

ucture

Infrastructure Boundary

Boundary

uration (years) Crisis Duration (years)

Development Project Development

m

Design, Build

Program

Design, Build

INSTANT CITY INSTANT CITY

ARCHIGRAM

ARCHIGRAM

Instant City, is a mobile Instant technological City, is a mobile event that technological drifts into event that drifts i underdeveloped towns underdeveloped via air balloonstowns with provisional via air balloons with provisiona structures in tow. Thestructures effect is ain deliberate tow. The overstimulation effect is a deliberate to overstimula produce mass culture. produce The whole mass endeavor culture. The is intended whole endeavor to is intend eventually move oneventually leaving behind move advanced on leavingtechnology behind advanced techn hook-ups. hook-ups.

Formal

Crisis

IST FORMS MODERNIST FORMS 65 1945-1965

RATINGEN-WEST RATINGEN-WEST MERETE MATTERN

Ratingen-West proposes an multi-funtional Ratingen-Westexpansion proposes an to multi-funtiona Dusseldorf. Contrary to the modernist Dusseldorf. gridContrary logic, it to is the modernist grid organized in deference to its hilly organized landscape. in deference The project to its hilly landscap proposes a mega-structure that proposes utilizes anaturalistic mega-structure formsthat and utilizes nat patterns. patterns.

Formal shift

ears)

Crisis Duration (years)

ment

Project Development Design, Build

Program

Density

MERETE MATTERN

Design, Build

OST-FORDISM POST-FORDISM 70-2006 1970-2006

nsity shift

Density shift Formal shift

STOP CITY STOP CITY Formal shift

s Duration (years) Crisis Duration (years)

ect Development Project Development Design, Build

ram

Program

sity

Density

Design, Build

DOGMA DOGMA Stop City critiques Stop theCity hyper-specificity critiques the hyper-specificity of the Post-Fordist of the Post City. It proposes City. super-dense It proposes ‘building-cities’ super-dense, where ‘building-cities’ all the , where functions of a city functions are interiorized of a cityand are located interiorized at the and perifery located at the p of a 3km x 3km natural of a 3km zone. x 3km natural zone.