2016 PA C I F I C N O R T H W E S T ANNUAL MARKET REPORT
PORTLAND OREGON PUGET SOUND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON 01
2016 ANNUAL MARKET REPORT
A WORD FROM THE PRESIDENT 03
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ABOUT
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EASTSIDE
05
SOUTH SOUND
10
NORTH SOUND
12
PUGET SOUND
14
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
16
PORTLAND OREGON REGION
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A WORD FROM THE PRESIDENT
“2016 was a great year for real estate and we believe that 2017 will be equally strong.”
It’s appropriate at the start of a new year to look back and reflect on the 12 months just ended, time to take stock, to review and to set lofty goals. By all accounts, 2016 was a banner year for real estate. According to S&P/Case-Shiller in November, 2016, Seattle and Portland hold the top two spots for residential real estate markets in the United States, with annual valuation growth of 11% and 10.9%, respectively. Why? Two reasons. First, our region has enjoyed some of the fastest employment growth in the U.S. over the past three years – and among the lowest new construction starts in the West. In the Puget Sound region, for example, 70,000 new households relocated here for jobs in the past 12 months, yet only 9,000 building permits were issued in the four-county area during the same period. There’s no question we’ve got tremendous job growth, but it outpaces basic supply and demand for housing. And the same is true for the metro Portland/Vancouver region. Second, low mortgage rates continue to fuel our region’s hot real estate market, staying below 4% for much of last year before edging up to just above 4% in the fourth quarter. Why? Home mortgage rates reflect the world’s confidence in the U.S. economy. When European and Asian economies struggle, their investors buy U.S. mortgage-backed securities (i.e., huge bundles of home loans), which drives interest rates down. As their economies improve, foreign investors put less of their money into our economy, which causes interest rates to rise. Additionally for us in 2016, uncertainty about an incoming president and new administration made markets nervous and rates rose slightly. That said, we don’t believe mortgage rates will climb above 5% this year nor are they likely to in 2018. In summary, 2016 was a great year for real estate, particularly in our region, and we believe that 2017 will be equally strong. – Mike Grady
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ABOUT COLDWELL BANKER BAIN | SEAL
Coldwell Banker Bain | Seal is the 17th largest real estate company in the country, helping people buy and sell homes in the Pacific Northwest since 1972. With 1000+ brokers in 31 offices throughout Washington and Oregon, the company provides the full spectrum of services to buyers and sellers, with special expertise in the luxury realm. Additionally, the company again earned the national Coldwell Banker Chairman’s Circle designation for outstanding performance in volume for 2015, ranking as a number one network affiliate out of 3,000
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offices in 49 countries. The company operates as Coldwell Banker Bain in Western Washington and Coldwell Banker Seal in the Portland/ Vancouver metropolitan area, also providing services in property management, commercial real estate and real estate investment, and relocation management. Coldwell Banker Bain | Seal consistently ranks among the Top 20 Real Estate Companies in the nation as cited by Real Trends and RIS Media’s Real Estate. For more information, visit www. coldwellbankerbain.com www.coldwellbankerseal.com
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ANNUAL MARKET REPORT - 2016
2016 ANNUAL MARKET REPORT
Seattle, Wash. (Jan. 20, 2017) – Coldwell Banker Bain, a leading Pacific Northwest real estate market brokerage, released its market annual report providing a variety of statistics for the sale of homes in neighborhoods and counties throughout the Puget Sound region, as well as for segments including luxury and condos. The annual report reflects activity between Jan. 1, 2016 and Dec. 31, 2016*. Observations by principal managing brokers working in each major market are also included.
expect 2017 to continue this trend, based on projected population and job growth numbers.” He continued, “We also see certain pockets of optimism for home buyers, if not related to price increases at least in inventory. Areas including Mercer Island, Magnolia, Seattle Central, West Seattle and Kitsap County provide some hope for inventory, and there is growth in available condos in Seattle as well. The biggest pain points continue to be in outlying counties, given the movement of people to these areas as a result of more affordability.”
Reflecting on the 2016 numbers, Mike Grady, CB Bain President and COO, said, “The data clearly show why the Puget Sound region is the hottest real estate market in the nation. And we
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PACIFIC NORTHWEST ANNUAL MARKET REPORT - 2016
BELLEVUE
Thadine Bak, principal managing broker of CB Bain’s Bellevue office, said, “Even though we lamented the lack of single-family homes and condos for sale, Bellevue’s real estate market actually performed well in 2016. We saw 3.1% more units sold last year than in 2015. This was despite the tough conditions buyers confronted in the first five months of the year: too much competition for too little inventory. But the frenetic pace eased a bit starting in June as more sellers listed their homes. Buyers remained both active and aggressive right up
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to the year’s end. In December, our office had a number of listings receiving multiple offers, and brokers wrote offers throughout the holidays. As a result, prices for Bellevue single-family homes rose 10.6% last year and the average sale came in 1.7% over asking price. With home buyers still coveting Bellevue’s proximity to employers, schools and amenities, we expect these trends to continue in 2017.”
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ANNUAL MARKET REPORT - 2016
EASTSIDE AREA Bellevue Bothell Duvall/Carnation Kirkland Issaquah/Sammamish Mercer Island Redmond Woodinville
2016 ANNUAL MARKET REPORT
SINGLE FAMILY & CONDO Average Sold Price (Nearest $000) Total Eastside Area
$882,600
Bellevue
$1,097,100
Bothell
$547,000
Duvall | Carnation
$534,500
Kirkland
$865,700
Issaquah | Sammamish
$863,700
Mercer Island
$1,642,100
Redmond
$813,000
Woodinville
$761,300
Area Condos $405,600 Area Waterfront (SF Only)
$1,574,300
Area Luxury ($2+M | SF + Condo)
$2,943,800
$0k $0k
$500k $500k
$1000k $1000k
$1500k $1500k
$2000k $2000k
$2500k $2500k
$3000k $3000k
Number of Sales Closed
3500
8837
3000
3006
2500
Total Eastside Sales Closed
2000 1500 1000
1870 1296 399
500 0
33
1810
1501
303
1108 585
379
405
Bellevue
Bothell
Duvall | Carnation
Kirkland
Issaquah | Sammamish
Mercer Island
Redmond
Woodinville
Area Condos Only
Area Waterfront (SF only)
Area Luxury ($2+M | SF+C)
24
24
41
27
27
36
24
31
25
67
67
49
128
80
135
3.9%
28.6%
Average Days on Market Current Inventory in Units
Total Eastside Area
590
63
90
37
48
-20.90%
-32.2%
-34.3%
-22.9%
-44.8%
104
43
7.2%
65.4%
38 -36.7%
-25.6% 2.1%
Change from 2015
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PACIFIC NORTHWEST ANNUAL MARKET REPORT - 2016
SEATTLE AREA According to John Deely, principal managing broker of CB Bain’s Lake Union office, “The market velocity in Seattle is unique in that a large number of properties are moving through the market at an unusually fast pace. The market continued to climb in 2016 with more than 8,400 residential closed sales representing a 2% increase over 2015. The last time the annual sales in Seattle eclipsed this number was a decade earlier in 2006, closing out that year with about 8,600 sales. In 2006 we had approximately 12,200 listings come to market
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compared with a little over 9,700 in 2016. This represents a decrease of over 20% in available inventory but with nearly the same volume of closed sales. The last time Seattle had more than a months’ worth of residential inventory was in December of 2015, and in 2016 Seattle stayed below a one-month supply of listings for the entire year. In 2016, the median price for Seattle residential properties increased 12.72% to a record of $619,990 and since 2012 we have experienced a 46.77% cumulative increase.”
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ANNUAL MARKET REPORT - 2016
SEATTLE AREA Ballard | Green Lake Capitol Hill Madison Park Magnolia NE Seattle Seattle Central South Lake Union | Queen Anne West Seattle
2016 ANNUAL MARKET REPORT
SINGLE FAMILY & CONDO Average Sold Price (Nearest $000) $827,700
Seattle Area Ballard | Green Lake
$730,400 $1,044,000
Capitol Hill Madison Park
$1,327,000
Magnolia
$940,900
NE Seattle
$788,100
Seattle Central
$738,000
So. Lake Union | Queen Anne
$1,109,400
West Seattle
$727,200
Area Condos
$412,000
Area Waterfront (SF Only)
$1,493,600
Area Luxury ($2+M | SF + Condo)
$2,746,200
$0K $0k
$500K $500k
$1000K $1000k
$1500K $1500k
$2000K $2000k
5259
2000
2054 1569
500
21
135
300
355 88
133
Ballard | Green Lake
Capitol Hill
Madison Park
Magnolia
NE Seattle
Seattle Central
S. Lake Union | Queen Anne
West Seattle
Area Condos Only
Area Waterfront (SF Only)
Area Luxury ($2+M | SF+C)
15
69
24
28
18
24
28
22
18
71
75
26
73
17
38
44.4%
25.9%
13.3%
Average Days on Market Current Inventory in Units 32
11
-3.0% 5.7%
791
342
396
Total Seattle Area
203
Total Seattle Sales Closed
1371
1000
0
$3000K $3000k
Number of Sales Closed
2500
1500
$2500K $2500k
14
17
-6.7% 10.0%
36
42
-12.2% 30.8%
25 -13.8%
27.3%
-2.6%
Change from 2015
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PACIFIC NORTHWEST ANNUAL MARKET REPORT - 2016
SOUTH SOUND AREA
Mike Flynn, a broker in CB Bain’s Tacoma office, said, “Year-end inventory is once again smaller in Pierce County. There were 17% fewer homes for sale countywide as of New Year’s Eve than the year before. The only market areas with available inventory even or above last year are Gig Harbor, Fife and Brown’s Point/Dash Point. What connects North Tacoma, University Place and Lakewood (together down 33%) is that they are mature communities having almost no bare land for new subdivisions. Gig Harbor, on the other hand, has both solid new home supply and is up 1% in inventory over last year.
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New homes are not the whole story. Another type of seller is often absent from the market today. For a while it looked as though retirees could take advantage of their home values having risen with the market. The trouble now is that their next-home choices have moved up in price as well. So far up that a right-sizing move has become too expensive, and the decision to stay put is often deemed the best. Those choices not to sell, plus too few new homes, leave many sub-markets with home supply far below demand.”
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ANNUAL MARKET REPORT - 2016
SOUTH SOUND AREA Gig Harbor | Key Peninsula North Tacoma | Lakewood | University Place Puyallup | Graham SE King County SW King County Bainbridge Island Silverdale
2016 ANNUAL MARKET REPORT
SINGLE FAMILY & CONDO
Average Sold Price (Nearest $000) $379,400
South King and Pierce Areas Gig Harbor/Key Peninsula
$464,800
North Tacoma | University Place Lakewood
$317,200 $300,400
Puyallup | Graham
$407,800
SE King County
$373,000
SW King County
$362,200
Kitsap Area
$880,600
Bainbridge Island
$338,300
SIlverdale So. King & Pierce County Condos
$220,600
So. King & Pierce County Waterfront (SF Only) So. King & Pierce County Luxury ($1+M | SF+Condo)
$731,500 $1,391,000
$0k $0k 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0
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$500k $300k
$1000k $600k
$1500k$900k $2000k $1200k $2500k
$3000k $1500k
Number of Sales Closed 18294
5400 6068
South King | Pierce Area Sales Closed
2933
Kitsap Area Sales Closed
3741
3419
2515
1441
386
306
533
252
Gig Harbor | Key Peninsula
N. Tacoma | University Place | Lakewood
Puyallup | Graham
SE King County
SW King County
Bainbridge Island
Silverdale
So. King | Pierce | Kitsap Co. Condos
So. King | Pierce | Kitsap Co. Waterfront (SF Only)
So. King | Pierce | Kitsap Co. Luxury ($1+M | SF+C)
72
42
41
33
33
50
36
37
87
103
61
Average Days on Market Current Inventory in Units
Total South King | Pierce Areas
1940
299
286
364
537
336
-10.0%
-1.3%
-27.0%
-15.9%
-2.5%
-11.3%
Total Kitsap Area
67
51
19.6%
24.4%
243
155
143
13.1%
11.7%
-3.6%
1310 -0.2%
Change from 2015
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PACIFIC NORTHWEST ANNUAL MARKET REPORT - 2016
NORTH SOUND AREA (Snohomish, Skagit, Whatcom)
According to Diedre Haines, principal managing broker of CB Bain’s Lynnwood and Edmonds offices, “In 2016, we saw modest increases in all measurable categories, i.e. closed transactions, sales pending, and increased inventory. In South Snohomish, I expect 2017 to be similar. Not only is there a need to increase inventory but the demand and fast absorption rate makes it much more than a need. We should see an increase
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in new construction with Mountlake Terrace becoming the new ‘hot spot.’ Hopefully this will help somewhat but we are already seeing new construction pre-sales (new homes that never get listed or become a part of the market) in increasing numbers. The Shoreline area will also bring an increase in new construction, but, as the market moves northward, it obviously creates more buyers and competition.”
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ANNUAL MARKET REPORT - 2016
NORTH SOUND AREA (Snohomish, Skagit & Whatcom Counties) Anacortes Bellingham Edmonds Everett Lynnwood Marysville
2016 ANNUAL MARKET REPORT
SINGLE FAMILY & CONDO Average Sold Price (Nearest $000) $400,400
North Sound Area Anacortes
$449,500
Bellingham
$395,400 $563,900
Edmonds
$362,200
Everett Lynnwood
$433,700 $320,500
Marysville 3-County Area Condos
$260,400
3-County Area Waterfront (SF Only)
$590,600 $1,340,600
3-County Area Luxury ($1+M | SF+C)
$0k
$300k
$600k
$900k
$1200k
Number of Sales Closed
2000 1557
Total North Sound Sales Closed
1317
1000 962
776
500
234
495
35
6949
1982
1842
1500
0
$1500k
97
Anacortes
Bellingham
Edmonds
Everett
Lynnwood
Marysville
3-County Area Condos
3-County Area Waterfront (SF Only)
3-County Area Luxury ($1+M | SF+C)
62
48
26
28
25
33
28
86
83
112
45
65
-5.9%
-33.8%
Average Days on Market Current Inventory in Units
Total North Sound Area
579
81
158
-22.9%
-25.7%
-31.9%
56
128
35
-25.1%
-51.4%
121 7.1%
3.7%
30%
Change from 2015
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PACIFIC NORTHWEST ANNUAL MARKET REPORT - 2016
PUGET SOUND AREA COUNTIES
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PACIFIC NORTHWEST ANNUAL MARKET REPORT - 2016
PUGET SOUND AREA COUNTIES Island King Kitsap Pierce Skagit Snohomish Whatcom
2016 ANNUAL MARKET REPORT
SINGLE FAMILY & CONDO Average Sold Price (Nearest $000) $317,400
Island
King
$654,400 $326,200
Kitsap
Pierce
$295,000
Skagit
$300,400
Snohomish
$391,900 $306,400
Whatcom
$0K
$100K
$200K
$300K
$400K
$500K
$600K
$700K
$800K
Number of Sales Closed
30000 25000
27666
20000 15000
17261
10000 5000 0
5400
2335
15664
4530
2655
Island
King
Kitsap
Pierce
Skagit
Snohomish
Whatcom
93
28
61
54
96
37
97
Average Days on Market Current Inventory in Units 844
1776
-7.4%
-6.5%
1310
2792
823
1643
1360
-18.2%
-17.2%
-22.8%
-18.6%
0.2% Change from 2015
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PACIFIC NORTHWEST ANNUAL MARKET REPORT - 2016
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
“The current market in Clark County, remains strong as compared to 2016,” said Pam Saunders, principal managing broker of CB Seal’s Vancouver West office. “New construction will stay steady along with existing home sales. Homes will need to be priced right to move. The price range that saw the most activity was $250,000 to $400,000. Consumers continue to be well educated on prices, so if sellers overprice their homes the days on the market are considerably longer. Market activity increased in 2016 compared to 2015. Closed sales were up 5.8%, pending sales up 3.3%, and new listings were up 3%.”
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PACIFIC NORTHWEST ANNUAL MARKET REPORT - 2016
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON East Clark County North Clark County West Clark County
2016 ANNUAL MARKET REPORT
SINGLE FAMILY & CONDO Average Sold Price East Clark County
$349,600
North Clark County
$360,300
West Clark County
(Nearest $000)
$328,700
$198,500
Area Condos
$1,790,300
Area Luxury ($1+M | SF+C)
$0K
$500K
$1000K
$1500K
$2000K
Number of Sales Closed
5000 4000 3000
4186
2000 2019
1000 0
1305
437
55
East Clark County
North Clark County
West Clark County
Area Condos
Area Luxury ($1+M | SF+C)
38
46
37
32
116
45
79
Average Days on Market Current Inventory in Units 560
175
275
-9.7%
-23.9%
-1.4%
-13.2% 12.5%
Change from 2015
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PACIFIC NORTHWEST ANNUAL MARKET REPORT - 2016
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON COUNTIES Clark County Cowlitz County
2016 ANNUAL MARKET REPORT
SINGLE FAMILY & CONDO Average Sold Price (Nearest $000)
Clark County
$344,900
Cowlitz County
$212,100
$0K 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0
$50K
$100K
$150K
$200K
$250K
$300K
$350K
Number of Sales Closed
7667
1344
Clark County
Cowlitz County
39
54
Average Days on Market Current Inventory in Units 1029
200
-9.2%
-25.4% Change over third quarter 2015
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PACIFIC NORTHWEST ANNUAL MARKET REPORT - 2016
PORTLAND OREGON REGION
Portland, Oregon (Jan. 20, 2017) – Coldwell Banker Seal, a leading Northwest real estate market brokerage, released its annual market report providing a variety of statistics for the sale of homes in neighborhoods and counties in Oregon and southwest Washington. This annual report reflects activity between Jan. 1, 2016 and Dec. 31, 2016*. Said Brian Houston, principal managing broker of CB Seal’s Portland West office, “2016 ended with listings and closed sales a bit behind 2015’s numbers. Year-to-date summary activity was cooler in 2016 than in 2015. Comparing all of 2016 to 2015, new listings (41,121) increased 0.7%, closed sales (32,798) decreased 1.5% and pending sales (33,234) decreased 3.9%. We still have a low inventory and financed closings
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take more than 60 days due to the shortage of appraisers.” David Sly, principal managing broker for CB Seal’s Lake Oswego office said, “The Lake Oswego/West Linn markets continue to show pricing gains which are up 13.4% over 2015, help offset the decrease in pending sales, which are at -9.5%. The economic outlook for the region is strong moving into 2017; our state’s unemployment rate at 5.2%, hasn’t been this low since around 2008. Building permits are up over last year at around 20%. Oregon retains the No. 1 spot as ‘Top Moving Destination,’ according to the 39th Annual National Movers Study and Portland holds the #1 spot in Zillow’s fastestappreciating housing markets. “
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ANNUAL MARKET REPORT - 2016
PORTLAND OREGON REGION Beaverton | Aloha Lake Oswego | West Linn Milwaukie | Happy Valley North Portland Northeast Portland Southeast Portland West Portland | Raleigh Hills
2016 ANNUAL MARKET REPORT
SINGLE FAMILY & CONDO Average Sold Price (Nearest $000) $400,000
North Portland Northeast Portland
$435,500 $377,100
Southeast Portland West Portland | Raleigh Hills
$637,300 $715,800
Lake Oswego | West Linn Milwaukie | Gladstone | Happy Valley
$393,200
Beaverton | Aloha
$379,500
Portland Metro (Tri-County) Area Condos
$297,300
Portland Metro Area Luxury ($1+M | SF+C)
$1,481,300
$0K
$300K
$600K
$900K
$1200K
$1500K
Number of Sales Closed
3500 3447
3000 2500
3408
2504
2000
2339
1500
2157
1812
1000
1265
500
1049
0
North Portland
Northeast Portland
Southeast Portland
West Portland | Raleigh Hills
Lake Oswego | West Linn
Milwaukie | Gladstone | Happy Valley
Beaverton | Aloha
Portland Metro (Tri-County) Area Condos
Portland Metro Area Luxury ($1+M | SF+C)
22
22
26
32
43
36
24
27
68
157
307
391
9.0%
23.3%
6.0%
670
Average Days on Market Current Inventory in Units 75
208
302
281
244
50.0%
14.9%
7.5%
20.6%
2.5%
286 -2.7%
Change from 2015
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PACIFIC NORTHWEST ANNUAL MARKET REPORT - 2016
OREGON REGION COUNTIES Clackamas Multnomah Yamhill Washington
2016 ANNUAL MARKET REPORT
SINGLE FAMILY & CONDO Average Sold Price
(Nearest $000)
Clackamas County
$454,500
Multnomah County
$427,900
$422,200
Washington County
$315,500
Yamhill County
$0K
$100K
$200K
8000
$500K
9891
6000
7626 6330 1529
2000 0
$400K
Number of Sales Closed
10000
4000
$300K
Clackamas County
Multnomah County
Washington County
Yamhill County
39
28
29
49
Average Days on Market Current Inventory in Units 895
985
743
327
7.8%
12.2%
18.9%
-6.3% Change over third quarter 2015
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PACIFIC NORTHWEST ANNUAL MARKET REPORT - 2016
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ANNUAL MARKET REPORT - 2016
Information and statistics derived from the NWMLS and RMLS. Statistics not compiled or published by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service nor the Regional Multiple Listing Service.