Foglalkozta
0 –0,1
EFFECTS OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE ON THE LABOUR MARKET
–0,2 0
20
40
60
80
1980. átlagbér szerinti percentilis
100
Chart 3-2: Changes in employment shares and earnings in the US by occupational group, 1980–2005
Reálinórabér változásaShare Change Employment
0.4 0,3 0.3 0,25 0.2 0,2 0.1 0,15 0 0,1 –0.1
–0.2 0,05
0 0
20 20
40 40
60 60
80 80
100 100
40
60
80
100
Skill Percentile Occupational 1980.(Ranked átlagbérby szerinti percentilisMean Wage)
Change in Real Log Hourly Wage
0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0
20
Skill Percentile
Source: Autor and Dorn (2013).
The other major change took place at the level of occupations. Chart 3-2 shows the extent to which the share and wages of various occupations (at a depth of
3 digits within Standard Classification of Occupations) changed in the labour market between 1980 and 2005 depending on the percentile of the wage distribution at which each occupation was registered at the beginning of the period (Autor and Dorn, 2013). Obviously, the top segment of the distribution is comprised of occupations requiring a high level of educational attainment (e.g. engineers, attorneys). Middle-paying occupations are mostly filled by industrial skilled workers and by employees carrying out office work in positions that do not require a high level of educational attainment. By contrast, low-paying occupations tend to be service activities that do not require a high level of educational attainment (such as drivers, cleaners). The chart shows that occupations that require a high level of educational attainment (and are consequently high-paying) and occupations that require a low level of educational attainment both saw their shares increase in the labour market between 1980 and 2005, accompanied by a decrease in the share of occupations that qualified as middle-paying at the beginning of the period. The same change is also reflected in earnings: in the space of 25 years, high and low-paying occupations saw their wages rise at a much higher rate than middle-paying ones. Summarising the two charts, it can be argued that high-skilled employees gained a considerably greater wage advantage compared to middle and low-skilled employees, and that it was mostly middleskilled employees that lost their jobs and saw their wages rise at the lowest rate. Again, the phenomenon at hand concerns the entire developed world: Goos et al. (2009) observe similar changes across 16 countries in continental Europe.
3.2 Explanations Economic theory, therefore, needs to explain two interrelated phenomena. Data on developed countries show that wage inequalities have increased and that the increase is related to levels of educational attainment: the relative size and wages of both high and low-paying occupations have increased at a higher rate compared to middle-paying occupations.
Three explanations for this phenomenon are offered by economics: technological change, the emergence of globalisation, and changes in labour market institutions such as minimum wages and the influence of trade unions. In the following, a detailed discussion is offered of the effects of technological change, with a brief treatment of the other two phenomena.
GROWTH REPORT • 2017
45
