6 Demographic trends of the future

One condition for presenting the macroeconomic path we deem to be sustainable is to outline the anticipated demographic trends of the future. If we only examine the current projections for global population, a decelerating rise in the present population of 7.7 billion can be expected, and thus the global population may peak at 10.9 billion in 2100. Within the framework of the present economic model, the rising global population – resulting from the unsustainable demographic policy of developing countries – further increases the size of the ecological footprint and global CO2 emissions, thereby exacerbating the sustainability problems.

However, if we examine the details of the process, two different trends take shape, neither of which is sustainable. The fertility rate in the developed countries is low, which leads to a decreasing population and rapid ageing. The process, in addition to increasing the number and ratio of dependants, has negative effect on innovation and imposes great burdens on the welfare provision systems. Meanwhile, the fertility rate in the lower income countries is very high, resulting in extremely fast growth of population, exceeding the growth rate of resources. Due to the different demographic trends, without successful intervention the weight of the individual regions will significantly change, which will redraw the currently known geopolitical maps. One example of this is that the share of European population will further decrease in world population: in 1950, the European population accounted for more than one fifth of the world population, while in 2015 it only accounted for 10 percent, and this ratio may fall to 6 percent by 2100.

Public policies are also trying to resolve this problem. In the developed and middle-income countries, the governments support families and efforts to have children (for which Hungary also sets a good example), while developing countries are trying to contain unsustainable population growth. The ratio of the countries that wish to support an increase in the fertility rate with a variety of measures is the highest in Europe (66 percent). By contrast, 83 percent of the African countries introduce measures aimed to reduce fertility, one tool of which is to increase access to family planning opportunities. In addition, it is critically important that the economies that face strong population growth should develop sustainable growth ecosystems that ensure the reduction of environmental burdens.