the POLITIK PRESS 2/3/14
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POLITIK PRESS
Volume XV, Issue I
Volume XV, Issue I
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Volume XV, Issue I
the
POLITIK PRESS
the
FEBURARY 3rd, 2014
POLITIK PRESS A publication of
JHU POLITIK jhupolitik.org
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF Rachel Cohen MANAGING EDITOR Colette Andrei ASSISTANT EDITORS Katie Botto Sarallah Salehi Christine Server CREATIVE DIRECTOR Victoria Scordato MARKETING & PUBLICITY Rebecca Grenham Audrey Moss WEBMASTER Sihao Lu FACULTY ADVISOR Steven R. David
HEAD WRITER Julia Allen MARYLAND EDITOR Adam Roberts POLICY DESK EDITOR Michael Bodner COPY EDITOR Peter Lee STAFF WRITERS Eliza Schultz Dylan Etzel Abigail Sia Adrian Carney Geordan Williams Chris Winer Akshai Bhatnagar Rosellen Grant
VOLUME XV, ISSUE I FEBURARY 3rd, 2014 2
Volume XV, Issue I
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INSIDE THIS ISSUE WEEK IN REVIEW ....................................................................
Page 4
Shannon Libaw ’15
THE MARYLAND DESK
How President Daniels Can Integrate JHU into Baltimore
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Page 5
Adam Roberts ’14
DISAPPOINTED WITH OBAMA’S STATE OF THE UNION? VOTE, PARTICIPATE, AND YES, DONATE ............................................... Page 6 Akshai Bhatnagar ’14
THE FIRST STEPS TOWARDS PEACE IN SYRIA ............................
Page 7
Mike Bodner ’14
CHINA’S SHADOW BANKING INDUSTRY ...............................
Page 8
Preston Ge ’17
TWEAK THE TAX CODE:
GET RID OF THE HOME MORTGAGE INTEREST DEDUCTION ..................... Page 9 Arpan Ghosh ’17
CHALLENEGES AHEAD FOR FEMINISIM .............................
Page 10
Christine Kumar ’16
BETWEEN A BEAR AND A HARD PLACE: THE PROTESTS IN UKRAINE ..........................................................
Page 11
Adrian Carney ’14
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WEEK IN REVIEW: The Enviornment By Shannon Libaw ’15, Contributing Writer Climate Change is Another Danger for Endangered Penguins Magellanic penguins, one of the largest and most historically vulnerable breeding colonies of birds, are now at an increased risk for mortality due to intense storms and hotter temperatures. This was discovered by a study in Punta Tombo, Argentina - a peninsula which holds around 200,000 pairs of penguins. The study tracked time periods of hatching and causes of mortality. More extreme weather patterns arising from climate change, such as heavier rainfalls and extended periods of heat and cold, are affecting the ecosystem of these penguins. In the past, starvation and predation have primarily been causes of mortality, but storms have recently been found to cause a significant number of deaths. This is threatening to the penguins’ survival since climate change adds another risk factor to endangerment, in addition to starvation and predation.
California Drought is Affecting Residents’ Water Usage These past few months have witnessed California in a severe drought as seventeen communities are at risk of potentially running out of water within 100 days. Governor Jerry Brown, who declared a drought emergency this month, has urged residents to limit water usage through hygiene and gardening practices. This problem is mainly due to the fact that the state hasn’t received rain in a long time. The Bay Area, according to officials, has seen less than 10 percent of normal rainfall at this time of year. Some communities heavily affected are up in the Bay Area and Fresno County, and state health department officials are preparing to intervene. Solutions which the state is preparing to undertake include hauling in water, digging new wells, and connecting water systems.
Formaldehyde in West Virginia’s Water Supply Officials aren’t exactly sure what chemicals spilled into the Elk River on January 9th, although thousands of gallons of a chemical called MCHM are believed to have been involved. Experts don’t know the potential health effects of the chemical, so policies regarding whether it’s safe to use the water have fluctuated, leaving residents confused and anxious. Although the water has been declared safe, redistribution of water bottles occurred on Thursday. Residents continue to visit hospitals and medical offices with conditions they believe are related to the odor and aftertaste in the tap water. West Virginia American Water, the company responsible for the tainted spill, is providing bottled water to nine counties. Recently, an environmental scientist has announced that citizens may be breathing in formaldehyde, a known human carcinogen, in the shower. Others disagree about the potential dangers, as formaldehyde is a ubiquitous substance found in several commonly used materials. PP
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MARYLAND DESK By Adam Roberts ’14, Maryland Politics Editor
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How President Daniels Can Integrate JHU Into Baltimore
HU Homewood has taken no part in Baltimore’s revival. Since taking office in 2009, President Daniels has decided to change the university’s course to better integrate our university into the city in which it is situated. Four measures have been at the heart of the President’s plan. The first is the campaign for faculty to live in the city. To accomplish this, JHMI shuttles carry huge advertisements telling faculty to take advantage of tax breaks offered by the city and non-profit organizations. The second measure is the annual President’s Day of Service, which sends students around the Baltimore for a day of community service. Third is the reconstruction of Charles Street, which is meant to emphasize that Homewood is a part of the city, not just an isolated campus. Finally, there is the Blue Jay Shuttle, which has been reconstituted as a free shuttle service to for getting around the neighborhoods surrounding Homewood. Each of these actions taken by President Daniels has been beneficial. They have all made a small dent in the walls that keep students and faculty trapped in Homewood and the city out of it. Yet, the problem with President Daniels’ measures is that they have been small initiatives only symbolic in their nature. He must demonstrate more audacity by advocating truly substantial changes in the everyday lives of students, faculty, and residents of Baltimore. President Daniels’ first course of action should be to pressure City Hall to provide some form of mass transit service to Homewood along Charles Street. It currently takes around 30 minutes by public transportation to get from Homewood to the Inner Harbor. However, if Streetcar service existed along Charles Street, travel time would be dramatically reduced. With greater access to the city, students would be more capable of, and more likely to obtain internships and jobs, explore the city for recreation, and become more involved in community affairs. President Daniels would be an integral component in getting such a project done, as JHU could provide funding towards the project. Nor would this funding have to be substantial, as the Baltimore Streetcar Campaign estimates that a Charles Street line would only cost $195 million, compared to the $2 billion sticker price of the planned Red Line planned to run along Pratt Street.
Independent of a mass transit line to Homewood, President Daniels could seek to provide students and faculty with a free monthly pass for the MTA. These passes are only $64 a month, which is too much for a student but of minor expense for JHU. If everyone associated with JHU had a monthly pass, JHU could save a significant amount of money by cutting funding for the JHMI shuttle and Blue Jay Shuttle since they would be used less frequently. Free monthly passes would increase ridership and revenue for the MTA, while helping the local economy by making students and faculty more likely to spend time in the city. President Daniels should also follow the legacy of his predecessor, William Brody, by physically expanding JHU Homewood into nearby communities. President Brody’s most notable achievements include the construction of Charles Commons and the partnership with private developers for the construction of Village Lofts. Rather than following Brody’s lead, President Daniels has focused on construction inside the boundaries of Homewood Campus. Students, faculty, and local residents all want the Homewood area to feel like a real college town. Focusing construction around Homewood, not in it, would better accomplish this. Incorporating Homewood into Baltimore is crucial for JHU to stay competitive for undergraduate applicants. Washington University in St. Louis is partnering with the city to build a streetcar to its campus and expand offcampus.. Brown University has partnered with Providence to plan a streetcar line that is ready to be built should federal funding become available. Northwestern University is already connected by the L to Chicago, and Evanston already feels like a true college town. Homewood cannot remain isolated if JHU seeks to remain competitive. One of President Daniels’ Ten by Twenty goals is to be among the top 10 undergraduate universities. That can only happen if he chooses to improve student and faculty life at Homewood by making it a part of Baltimore. This will be difficult, as he will be forced to partner with a visionless and obstructionist mayor. However, President Daniels’ owes it to his students, faculty, and the residents of Baltimore to try his best to incorporate Homewood into the city. PP
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DISAPPOINTED BY OBAMA’S STATE OF THE UNION? VOTE, PARTICIPATE, AND YES, DONATE. by Akshai Bhantagar ’14, Staff Writer
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ast week, President Obama delivered his annual State of the Union speech to Congress, calling for immigration reform, equal pay for women, and universal preschool. Like many of his previous speeches, this one was well crafted, charismatically delivered, and utterly inconsequential. None of these entirely reasonable proposals is likely to become law during this year. How our government arrived at this level of inaction is a sad story – and one in which our generation played a leading role. If we want to avoid three more years of gridlock, young adults must get more involved this election year. Five years ago, Barack Obama was inaugurated as the most potentially powerful Democratic president in forty-four years. Commanding large majorities in both houses of Congress, the Democratic Party promised a new era of unabashed liberalism, one in which universal health care, a cap-and-trade bill, and immigration reform (with a path to citizenship) would be just the tip of the iceberg. After the 2010 midterms however, the Republicans impressively clawed back from the electoral abyss, gaining 63 House seats, 6 Senate seats, and 6 governorships. Perhaps even more consequentially, the GOP gained control of at least one legislative house in 13 states, victories which unfortunately coincided with the decennial redistricting process. In that one year, the Republican Party managed to cement an advantage over the House of Representatives that will outlast both Barack Obama and the first term of his successor. Even when more people voted for Democratic House candidates than Republican ones in 2012, the Republicans retained their majority through their gerrymandered seats. The success of the 2010 election has been the gift that keeps on giving for the Republican Party. In Washington, Republicans have turned against their previous support for a variety of common-sense issues, including cap-andtrade, tax increases for deficit reduction, infrastructure spending, and an individual mandate for health care. In North Carolina alone, GOP state legislators have passed laws designed to deter young people and minorities
(aka Democrats) from voting, forced women seeking abortions to look at an ultrasound, and decided to legalize concealed guns on playgrounds and in bars – what comedian Bill Maher aptly calls the “what could go wrong?” law. When the President took the podium last Tuesday, he knew there was hardly any legislation he could propose that the Republicans in Congress would accept – how can you expect Republicans to help you stop the rise of the oceans when they can barely keep the government open? Yet as much as those in the Republican Party are to blame, one of the driving forces behind the Washington stalemate is a core Democratic constituency: young adults. In 2008, youth voter turnout was 51%. In 2012, 50%. In 2010, the year a Republican wave swept the country, youth turnout was just 20%, eighteen percentage points below the national average. From history class to conversations with grandparents, we often hear of the lengths to which previous generations went to participate in the democratic process. Today, our generation – especially at this university - hides its unwillingness to engage with politics behind an adolescent veneer of cool detachment. Rather than working to improve this country’s many flaws, we abandon politics, mistaking an imperfect system for an unresponsive one. We deride the system as overrun with money – which it is. Yet even though $7 billion were spent on the 2012 election, college students alone spend $5.5 billion on alcohol each year. In the era of Super PACs, the days when young people could afford to avoid the messy business of campaign contributions are long over. As this midterm election year gets underway, we must not forget the damage our generation did during the last one. This country has paid a huge price for youth apathy in 2010, from cuts to scientific research and food stamps, to a Congress that has nearly defaulted on the national debt - twice. Six years after 2008, we must admit that the only way to truly bring about hope and change is through participating in the system, and not abandoning it. PP
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THE FIRST STEPS TOWARD PEACE IN SYRIA by Michael Bodner ’14, Policy Desk Editor
“
Stalemate” is an ugly word. It serves to describe the current state of three years of Syrian conflict, and many fear that it may come to describe the progress of the ongoing Geneva Conference on Syria. On Thursday, January 23nd, representatives from the Syrian Government and the Syrian Opposition met for the first time under UN supervision in Geneva, Switzerland. Also attending the conference were representatives from the United States and Russia. As the first round of talks draw to a close, observers have seen both promising and distressing signals coming from the conference participants. Needless to say, the mood of the conference has been tense. The talks opened with opposition forces being called “evil” by none other than the foreign minister of Syria, Walid al-Muallem. The delegates from the opposing sides refused to directly address each other, speaking instead directly to the UN moderators. Nevertheless, there have been a few small steps in the right direction, as well as some larger strides. For example, the two sides agreed on Thursday morning to hold a moment of silence for those on both sides who had fallen in the conflict. The Syrian government also agreed to allow women and children to leave the besieged city of Homs, and they have allowed food and medicine convoys to enter the city. Perhaps most significantly, the Syrian government has agreed to go over the June 2012 Geneva Communique “paragraph by paragraph” with the opposition. The Communique, issued by world powers including the US, China, and Russia, called for a rapid government transition with a firm timetable to be implemented in a climate of calm. Yet even this small victory for peace has been tinged with acrimony. In a notso-subtle attack on the opposition, Syrian representative and presidential adviser Bouthaina Shaaban said the government was eager to discuss the Communique’s aim of “stopping terrorism”. Nowhere in the original document is the word “terrorism” mentioned.
prowess and won more victories. If allowed to stall on the peace talks, they may attempt to leverage military victories into political ones. In addition, extremist forces like al-Qaeda in Iraq or the al-Qaeda affiliated al-Nusra front draw more recruits as the fighting continues. While they are competent fighters against the regime, their presence only serves to alienate Western allies. They serve as a frightening reminder of the chaos the country could devolve into should the rebels win without the capability to rule Syria as one unified force. These peace talks, set to pause on January 31st and resume on February 10th, are absolutely critical in regards to bringing the war to a close and establishing an enduring peace. The opposition finds itself fractured and violent infighting, such as that seen in rebel-held ArRaqqah earlier this month, only serves as propaganda for the government. Meanwhile, the government knows that while it may eventually wear down the rebels, countries like France and the US have invested too much money and prestige into ever letting Assad rule the country again. That being said, Assad may be able, with sufficient military and political leverage, to manipulate his way into a position of power with a future government. John Kerry described the conference in Geneva as the “beginning of what will obviously be a tough and complicated negotiation.” As always, it is the Syrian people who will suffer the most as these talks drag on. Starvation is becoming a serious issue in besieged rebel-held areas, and spillover conflict into neighboring countries, with Lebanon in particular, remains a constant threat. Right now, the primary concern of the UN should be keeping these talks going at all costs, while prioritizing the opening of humanitarian corridors in Syria. Obviously, this is a tall order. Yet it is absolutely necessary to the survival of Syria as a state, and may indeed prove crucial to the security of the region. PP
Despite these advances, it necessary to make sure these talks continue on a timely pace. In recent months, the Syrian Government has shown increased military
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CHINA’S SHADOW BANKING INDUSTRY by Preston Ge ’17, Contributing Writer
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he Chinese economy is the second largest in the world. It is projected to have grown 7.6 percent in 2013, a rate considered astronomical by western standards. But despite its rising influence, the Chinese economy is still immature, with GNI Per Capita barely one-tenth that of the United States. China’s growth frenzy is cooling, and in the aftermath it is clear that there remains much work to do before China achieves the long-term stability enjoyed by industrialized countries. In few other areas other than the financial sector is this fact more evident. Over the last few years, the authorities have faced the rise of a shadow banking industry, bank-like institutions dissimilar enough from banks to escape government regulations. In 2013, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) repeatedly raised the interbank loan interest rate to make it more expensive for shadow banks to make transactions and do business. This strategy was expected to slowly squeeze the life out of the shadow banks. But this aggressive maneuver has a fatal drawback: by raising the loan rate, it makes it harder for regular banks to do business as well. In June 2013 and January 2014, this almost caused Chinese money markets to completely freeze, and the PBOC backed down from its strategy before the entire financial system collapsed. Something must be done about the shadow banking industry. The risks of shadow banking will take another essay to discuss, but it is suffice to say that it introduces major instabilities that could potentially bring down the entire financial sector, as it nearly did in the United States in 2008. But China’s current approach to the issue is destined to fail. The PBOC is throwing all its terrifying might at the shadow banks, but it will be defeated simply because the rise of shadow banking was caused by existing government policies. Since 1978, the Chinese government has instituted many free-market reforms that have lifted more than 500 million citizens out of poverty. However, the financial sector still remains solidly under the Chinese government’s grip, tightly controlled with regulations. These regulations included minimum interest rates that banks can charge
on loans, and maximum rates they can pay to deposits. These measures were instituted in the hope of preventing banks from making overly risky investments. But because the minimum interest rate on loans was higher than the maximum interest rate on deposits, banks were literally guaranteed to earn more from lending money than they would lose from interest on deposits. This made the banks more eager to lend money than the government was comfortable with. But instead of reversing their policy and allowing natural market forces to establish the socially optimal equilibrium, the Chinese government instead chose to institute a cap on the amount of money banks could loan. Because the government had abruptly cut the supply of loans, there arose a shortage of funds. The low interest rate bank deposits earn made deposits very unattractive for investors, leading to an excess of money that could to be invested somewhere. The government’s policy effectively led to excess demand for loans and excess supply of money. But there was no legal avenue for supply to sate demand, causing the inception of the shadow banking industry, where wealthy investors could provide money to credit-starved industries through quasi-legal channels. Thus shadow banking fulfills natural supply and demand, succeeding where the Chinese government has failed. In fact, the shadow banks have succeeded in sating demand so much that nearly 43 percent of the Chinese government’s debt is owed to them. The government can do all it wants, but it cannot possibly succeed unless it deals with the underlying problem by getting rid of the interest rate limits. Fortunately, Premier Li Keqiang seems to recognize this. This past July, the PBOC scrapped the minimum rate banks can charge on loans. But the other cause of this crisis – the maximum interest rate on deposits – remains. And while Premier Li may know what needs to be done, he faces significant opposition from the more conservative members of the Communist Party Politburo. The interest rate limits must be scrapped, and the Chinese government must be willing to do what is necessary to regain control over their financial sector. PP
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TWEAK THE TAX CODE: GET RID OF THE HOME MORTGAGE INTEREST DEDUCTION by Arpan Ghosh ’17, Contributing Writer
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mongst the myriad of complex and submerged social policies in our nation lies one of the most costly tax expenditures that aims to help homeowners pay off their mortgage interest and stimulate growth in the real estate market. The Home Mortgage Interest Deduction (HMID) began early in the 20th century and grew substantially in the 1980s, subsidizing mortgage interest by deducting a percentage of the interest out of one’s income tax. Taxpayers who own a home, have tax liabilities, and itemize their deductions, are eligible to deduct mortgage interest from their income. Eligible taxpayers claim this deduction and receive benefits that are proportional to their tax rate; therefore, the mortgage interest deduction is progressive in nature. Home Mortgage Interest Deduction is behind health insurance exclusion as the 2nd highest tax expenditure of the US government. Proponents of the policy believe that the deduction helps middle-class homeowners pay off their mortgage and encourage further homeownership and investments. However, there’s too much evidence that proves otherwise. Since wealthier individuals own homes with larger mortgages, the deductions on their interests is significantly larger proportionately to homeowners with incomes in the middle quintiles. Essentially, the value of the deduction is dependent on the size of the mortgage and the magnitude of the interest rate; therefore, the deduction disproportionately benefits the upper class over lower-income homeowners. For example, an investment broker with a $1 million mortgage paying $40,000 in mortgage interest and getting a government housing subsidy of $14,000 every year, will only be paying 65 cents per dollar, and the government will pay the other 35 cents. In contrast, a high school teacher who makes $60,000 and pays $10,000 in mortgage interest will receive a subsidy of only $1,500, and will be paying 85 cents of every interest dollar, and the government will subsidize the other 15 cents. In a research study conducted by the Pew Research Center, economists determined that the government effectively pays for 35% of the mortgage interest for the highest income home buyers, and only 12% of the interest for those in the middle class.
Opponents of the HMID believe in either capping the deductions for the very rich, or eliminating it all together. This would allow for greater tax revenues, contributing to a decrease in tax expenditures and reduction in national debt. Samantha Lasky, a policy expert at the Pew Fiscal Analysis Initiative in Washington, D.C., believes that “…eliminating the mortgage interest deduction would [have] raise[ed] $80 billion in federal revenues for FY 2010, equivalent to a 7.5 percent across the board increase in individual income tax rates for all taxpayers.” Unfortunately because of powerful real-estate and mortgage interest lobbyist groups, congressional support for the continuation of home mortgage interest deduction is high, and the likelihood that the program will end anytime soon is slim. But the policy must be reconsidered, especially in a time where large national debt meets a stagnated real estate market. Ironically, long before the recession of 2008, homeownership rates over the last four decades have consistently been between 20%-25%. The deduction not only benefits the upper class more than lower class homeowners because of the percentage of the interest deduction, but also because the policy itself is inherently skewed to help only high-income individuals. In order to even claim the deduction, taxpayers must itemize their deduction, and for the majority of middle-class individuals with incomes less than $100,000, claiming a standard deduction yields higher refunds. Because of this, the only homeowners in the nation who can really take advantage of Home Mortgage Interest Deduction are the rich. If the government really wants to stimulate the real estate market, the tax revenues allocated through eliminating/ capping HMID can go towards the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) to provide housing vouchers for the very poor and to revive our currently resourcedepleted Section 8 Housing programs. The government needs to do more for the poor and eliminate tax policies that disproportionately aids the rich more than individuals who are disadvantaged. The number of single-moms and children currently waiting for housing vouchers is painstakingly high, and by having more tax revenue, HUD can revisit the goal of their organization and aid those who need it the most. PP
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CHALLENGES AHEAD FOR FEMINISM by Christine Kumar ’16, Contributing Writer
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eminism and gender equality are much more discussed today than ever before in history. As recently seen with Beyonce, who sampled from author Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie’s TED speech, “We should all be feminists”, in a song dedicated to Malala Yousafzai, a young Pakistani woman who survived gun wounds in the name of education, women around the world are beginning to finally truly express their feelings and, more importantly, are finally being heard. This recent wave of openness and tolerance towards women and their issues certainly sets the stage for movement towards gender equality. However, the recent attention given to women’s rights is just a stark reminder of the discrimination and inequalities that women still face today. Despite the attention and awareness of women’s rights and struggles, there are still some blatant and ridiculous inequalities that continue to plague the progress of women and society as a whole. Society has progressed to a point where intelligence and innovation, rather than brute strength and hunting capability, reign supreme. So in theory, men and women of today should have the same opportunity and the same potential to gain success and to rise in societal ranks. However, that has not been the case. Women today are almost equivalent to men in terms of college enrollment and sometimes even surpass men in terms of gaining advanced college degrees. Yet, the number of women in leadership positions is still incredibly low. Only 8.1% of executive officer positions held in Forbes 500 companies were women, a number that has not changed since last year, and more than a quarter of companies on the prestigious Forbes 500 companies list had no women executives at all.
take care of the family. Despite the progress women have made and the general acceptance of feminism in today’s culture, women still have to face these roadblocks and antiquated mentalities that consistently remind women that they are still second rate--that ultimately, despite all of society’s progress, women are still considered the inferior gender. As long as society still allows for these laws and clear inequalities persist, the hard work of women who are bringing awareness to the female condition and experience will ultimately do nothing to change the status quo. There needs to be significant change that will not only change the gender dynamic but will also force people to change their perspective on the role of women in today’s society. Governments need to work to change the laws that set women back, such as striking down discriminatory laws that allow women to receive lower salaries and making sure that both men and women get similar maternity leave schedules, thus removing the pressure for men to have to return to work and for women to get assistance at home so she can transition back to the workplace. It is also important for women themselves to appreciate their self-worth--to take charge of their careers and to ask for opportunities rather allowing themselves to be taken advantage of. It is a new time for women’s rights and gender equality. For any real progress to happen, and to see a whole new social fabric where men and women are truly considered equal, the world needs to rid itself of its antiquated mentality and step into the 21st century. PP
In addition, only 22% of seats in national parliaments worldwide were held by women, meaning that ultimately men are still majority representatives of the population and are thus still the dominant decision makers. Even here in the United States, a country that boasts liberty and equality, women are still paid 77 cents on the dollar as compared to men for doing the exact same job, and minority women are paid even less. In fact, employers are hesitant to promote young women because they are afraid that women will later get pregnant and have to quit to
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BETWEEN A BEAR AND A HARD PLACE: THE PROTESTS IN UKRAINE by Adrain Carney ’14, Staff Writer
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n January 17th, President Viktor Yanukovych of Ukraine approved a series of twelve laws strictly curtailing the rights of its citizens to protest, assemble, and voice their opinions in the press. Although extended protests were ongoing since the November signing of a controversial trade agreement and the jailing of opposition party members, such as the former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, the scale and nature of the new protests changed dramatically. Riots broke out in the streets, thousands of civilian were injured, and protesters have built barricades inhibiting police movement in the capital city of Kyiv. What’s at stake here? This is, of course, a case of whether Yanukovych can retain effective power over the country. Yet this is not the only question. These rapidly changing events could also affect regional politics, but also act as a flashpoint in the ongoing diplomatic maneuvers between the European Union and Vladimir Putin over the expansion of Russia’s regional influence. Yanukovych’s forays into foreign policy were attempts to play the European Union and the Russians off of each other. However, he has steadily lost popularity over recent months by taking lucrative trade deals. A growing proportion of the Ukrainian population is interested in forging stronger ties with the European Union in order to earn any perceived economic and social benefits similar to what their neighbor Poland which was able to gain after its liberation from Russian hegemony. However, the widening split within Ukraine is not solely of Yanukovych’s own making. The state of Ukraine is only a recent creation, borne after the fall of the Soviet Union. The present day territory of Ukraine was carved up between multiple empires over the past century – ranging from the Habsburg Austrian Empire to the Soviet Union. The largest and most relevant split is between the Ukrainian-speaking pro-European west, and the Russian-speaking east. However, demographics and voting patterns are indicative of a split not just between regions, but also among urban and rural populations.
There is also the matter of Putin’s ambitions for Ukraine and the region. In 2011, Putin signed an agreement with neighboring Belarus and Kazakhstan to form a broader ‘Eurasian Union’. This move was criticized by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton as a shift towards reestablishing Russian dominance over its neighbors and an attempt to revive the Soviet Union in all but name. It is also important to note that Ukraine is especially dependent on Russian imports, and Russia is a large market for Ukrainian exports. If Putin decided to shut off trade, then Ukraine would immediately experience a crippling economic downturn. Even if a pro-EU party came to power after elections, how much of their program would they be able to implement in the face of heavy Russian coercion? Ukraine is still a net agricultural exporter and producer of oil and natural gas, and both sides strongly benefit from trading its rich store of natural resources and investing in its infrastructure. Events are rapidly changing, and the future remains uncertain. As of January 28th, the Prime Minister of Ukraine has stepped down, and a majority of the antiprotest laws have been repealed. Yanukovych remains in power, but this is highly contingent on whether this pressure will force the government to fold even further. On January 29th, Putin placed a hold on an aid package worth $15 billion, stating the need to “understand what sort of government there will be”, according to a statement by Russian PM Medvedev. The majority party of Yanukovych’s supporters in the Ukrainian Parliament has also passed an amnesty bill for all protestors, but with the major caveat that they leave all occupied government buildings – a significant concession considering that organizing street protests would be made more difficult with the winter cold. On the 30th, Yanukovych claimed ‘sick leave’ – would this be a genuine reaction to his loss of authority, or a convenient excuse to slip offstage? The course of events runs quickly. By the time this article appears in print, the situation will no doubt evolve further. The protest continues and the struggle for a better world goes on. In Ukraine now, the protester’s creed is “Dum spiro spero” – while I breathe, I hope. PP
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Photo Courtesy: United States Library of Congress’s Prints and Photographs Division
The Politik Press, originally founded in 2008 as JHU Politik, is a weekly publication of political opinion pieces. We proudly seek to provide the Johns Hopkins campus with student voices and perspectives about important issues of our time. Rather than hide within a cloistered academic bubble, we know we must critically engage with the world that surrounds us. That, we believe, is at the heart of what it means to be learning. We’re lucky to be situated in the city of Baltimore, a city with a rich history and an ever-changing politics. We aim to look at the politics of the Homewood campus, of the city of Baltimore, of the domestic landscape of the United States, and then of the international community as well. While we publish the Politik Press weekly, we work simultaneously on our special issues which come out once per semester. These magazines confront a single topic from multiple angles. We have run issues covering topics like the political nature of research, the Arab Spring, and our city Baltimore.
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