Market 360ยบ Real Estate Residential Portugal 2017
Pedro Lancastre
Managing Director
“ If more industries in Portugal were to demonstrate the health and performance indicators of our real estate, we would definitely be one of the most solid countries in the European Union.�
ECONOMY
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2016
GDP EVOLUTION
1.2%
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UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
11.2%
EXPORTS
PRIVATE CONSUMPTION
3.7%
2.1%
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2017 GDP Growth Forecast
GDP growth forecasts downgradedin the wake of the Brexit vote Source: Oxford Economics, January 2017
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Global Macroeconomic, Policy and Regulatory Issues: 2017 Global • Divergent monetary policy • Protectionism • Strong dollar
China
Europe • Eurozone elections, migration and Brexit • Vulnerable banks • Longer term need to reform Eurozone
• Slowing economy and debt bubble • Economic shift from producers to consumers • Continued migration from rural to urban
Japan • Export-led growth vulnerable to external shifts • Zero rates and tax rises • Low potential growth, fiscal debt
U.S. • Surviving Trump – trade retaliation, access to migrants • Fiscal reflation • Fed to tighten faster in 2017
India • High growth, but for how long? • Structural reforms still pending • Foreign direct investment, productivity
Source: JLL Research and Oxford Economics
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RESIDENTIAL
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NUMBER OF HOUSES SOLD
BUYER’S ORIGIN
2016
2016
LISBON
PORTO
32,520 +28%
2016 vs. 2015
35%
15,781
PORTUGAL
14%
+23%
2016 vs. 2015
BRAZIL
7%
FRANCE
Source:Statistics Portugal
3%
CHINA
2.7% HOUSES IN NEW DEVELOPMENTS, LISBON
SOUTH AFRICA
NO., 2016
OUTROS
840
36%
EVOLUTION
2016 vs 2015
68% 65%
INTERNATIONAL
Source:Developments marketed by JLL | Cobertura
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NATIONALITIES
Source: Deals Closed by JLL | Cobertura
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TOP 3 New Development
ALEXANDRE HERCULANO 41 Av. da Liberdade, Lisbon
LIBERDADE TERRACES Av. da Liberdade, Lisbon
ALIADOS107 Porto Downtown
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APARTMENTS
APARTMENTS
90% sold in 5 months
77% sold in 5 months
DEVELOPER
DEVELOPER
Louvre Capital
Lantia
APARTMENTS
74% sold in 5 months DEVELOPER
Nickel Real Estate
Source: JLL
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Buying house in the main European cities In an attempt to overcome the crisis difficult times, the government launched two programs to attract foreign investment:
PRIME VALUE €/SQ M
Non-Habitual Resident Tax Regime (NHR)
Lease Law
Reduction of the income tax that can vary between 0% and 20%
Rents free of constraints for 5 + 3 years
Golden Visas (N.º) Tax Benefits for refurbishment projects
27.000
18.000
12.000
10.000
LONDON
PARIS
BERLIN
MADRID
Source: JLL Research
8.000 LISBON
Exemptions: IMT, IMI, IRC, Municipality Taxes
• • •
5 investment options (2 in real estate) Real Estate Investment– 90% Chinese – 74%
3.888
Reductions: IVA, Gains Set 2016
Deductions: IRS (see conditions) 2013
2014
2015
Source: JLL & SEF 10
Prime Residential Zones Lisbon
ZONE
PRIME VALUE €/sq m
Chiado
5,500 – 8,000
Avenida da Liberdade
5,000 – 9,000
Príncipe Real
4,750 – 7,500
Historical Area
4,000 – 6,500
Lapa / Estrela
4,000 – 5,500
Campo de Ourique / Amoreiras
3,000 – 5,500
Avenidas Novas
3,000 – 5,750
Colina de Santana
3,000 – 4,500
Riverside Zone
4,000 – 5,500
Restelo / Belém
3,500 – 6,000
Parque das Nações
3,500 – 5,000
Estoril / Cascais
5,000 – 12,000
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