INVESTING CHECKOFF DOLLARS
DISEASE ERODES DEMAND H O G D I S E AS E S LOWS S OY B E A N S H I P M E N TS BY BETHANY BARATTA
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frican swine fever (ASF) is decimating China’s hog herd, further eroding U.S. soybean prices and raising questions about the safety of amino acids and other ingredients used in pork production being imported from China. Official reported cases of African swine fever in China alone have forced farmers to cull more than 200 million pigs in an effort to control the spread of the disease. Industry experts say, however, that the number of cases is vastly underreported.
12 | OCTOBER 2019 | IASOYBEANS.COM
As many as half of China’s breeding herd have either died as a result of ASF or have been culled in attempts to control the spread of the disease. “China has the biggest hog herd in the world, and they have been severely impacted by this dreaded disease,” says Richard Fritz, a founding partner of Global AgriTrends, a global ag research and analysis firm. At 428 million head, China raises 65 percent of the world’s hog herd, as estimated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. By the end of 2019, China’s total swine inventory will be
down 13 percent to 374 million head, according to the latest USDA Foreign Agricultural Service’s Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report published on April 9. An August outlook from Global AgriTrends predicted that ASF has wiped out 53 percent of China’s hog population. ASF has spread to all 31 of China’s mainland provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions since August 2018, according to Farm Journal’s Pork. It’s also been spreading throughout certain regions in Asia, Africa and Europe.
