Facing the Facts: Outdoor Recreation, No Longer Just a Walk in the Park

Facing the Facts: Outdoor Recreation, No Longer Just a Walk in the Park

A Report by Joseph R. Hill

December 2013

About the Author Joseph Hill is a current co-owner, and the manager of Sled Shed Board Shop and Sticks n’ Stones Biking and Climbing. He grew up in Southeast Idaho and has enjoyed activities in the outdoors his whole life. Summers were always filled with family backpacking trips and fishing in high mountain lakes and streams. Closer to home summer activities were riding bicycles and skateboards in the driveway, which led to dirt trails and skateparks, which led to BMX racing and mountain biking, which led to motocross and dirt-biking.

Winter was always Joseph’s favorite season; however, and learning how to ski at age 5 was a gamechanger for him. Flying down a slope on snow provided feelings of liberation and exhilaration.

Soon thereafter, Joseph was converted to snowboarding at age 10 in the mid 90’s, during the pinnacle of the skier and snowboarder rivalry; and the explosion of extreme sports. After sliding sideways that first day he was hooked for life. Summer jobs thereafter had only one purpose, which was to save money for lift tickets and snowboarding gear.

Over the years Joseph’s passion for the outdoors has grown and expanded into interests in downhill mountain biking, road cycling, rock climbing, hiking, peak bagging, fly fishing, camping in all its variations, backcountry snowboarding, snowmobiling, and backcountry exploration. His reasons for studying in Southeast Idaho at BYU-Idaho were more centered on opportunities for outdoor recreation than academic interest. Finding a job that allowed him to get involved with the activities he enjoyed was of paramount importance. His passion for the outdoors, his work experience, and his academic interest in economics are the driving forces of this article.

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Table of Contents Executive Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 Background. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Scope and Purpose. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Economic Theory. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Data Section. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Geographical Information. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14 Concentration of Activity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17 Weather Data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23 Impacts of Climate Change or Weather . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24 Impacts of Recreation Evolution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Retail and Manufacturing Effects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27 Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Works Cited. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

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Executive Summary

O

ver the last several decades, the way the world recreates has changed a great deal. Outdoor recreation activities are growing in popularity and intensity. In particular, extreme sports’ growth has exploded since the late 80’s and early 90’s. Their events are now broadcast during primetime on national television. There are both positive and negative effects generated by this growth.

The size of the outdoor recreation industry has grown annually by about 5 percent between the years of 2005 and 2011 (Outdoor Industry Association, 2012). During this same period most sectors contracted due to the great recession. On a national level it currently generates approximately $646 billion and provides 6.1 million American jobs through direct economic activity.

Forms of recreation over the past several decades have changed from passive to aggressive ( Burgin and Hardiman 2012). This poses challenges for land management. For example, mountain biking has evolved to include several disciplines, the traditional form of which, cross-country, had very little environmental impact and needed only a narrow single track trail. Advancements in technology and evolution of the sport have led to the creation of new disciplines like downhill mountain biking.

Downhill mountain biking usually creates a larger impact on soil and vegetation than cross-country biking, due to the speeds at which riders descend trails, also because ofthe construction of common features like jumps and drops that serve to fuel their adrenaline. Simply shutting down trails is not necessarily the correct answer. However, a more diversified and specific approach to land management may be beneficial for all parties involved.

The ski industry in particular seems to be in a mature state and therefore becoming stagnant in recent years. This is a result of the increasing average age of ski resort visitors as well as a low conversion rate of only 15 percent for beginners to become core skiers/snowboarders. The ski resort industry has also undergone a consolidation era as the number of ski resorts has declined by 33%, from 727 areas to 481, over the past 22 years (Colorado Wild 2008). Despite this contraction, during the same time period the number of annual ski resort visits has increased, from approximately 50 million in in 1979 to over 60 million in 2007/2008. This is likely a result of cheaper lift tickets in the form of discounted season passes, as well as less expensive gear in the form of cheaper imported substitutes. If we consider a more recent time frame, we see that since 2000, the annual numbers of skier and snowboarder visits to resorts has decreased (Cordell, 2010). This is likely because skiing and snowboarding are by and large activities for the economically affluent. As a result of the most recent economic slowdown since 2008 many people have less disposable income which leads to less consumption of luxury goods like skiing and snowboarding. Aggressive new strategies may be necessary in order to revitalize what seems to be an industry heading for a decline.

The snow sports industry faces another challenge in the form of climate change. Historical data shows

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that average winter temperatures are increasing. Between the years of 1970 to 2011, temperatures have increased as much as 2.0 to 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit in some areas of the United States (Burakowski and Magnusson 2012). This poses a serious threat to the snow sports industry and the nation as a whole because a substantial amount of people are employed by snow-related recreation in almost every state across the United States. Ski resorts are currently increasing their capacity for snow-making as a means to make up the difference of increasing temperatures and less precipitation. However, this is only a temporary solution, as snow-making requires cooler temperatures, approximately 20 degrees Fahrenheit, and over time increasing temperatures will severely minimize or cause this capacity to become obsolete. Large-scale positive change seems to be necessary and can be realized through the protection of environmental legislation, along with future implementation of policies and standards that promote clean energy and low pollution.

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Background Past reports have already established that the outdoor recreation industry is an economic giant. The outdoor recreation industry contributes approximately $646 Billion to the U.S. economy annually (Outdoor Industry Asociation, 2012). An industry so large is affected by an array of economic factors in the form of both opportunities and threats.

The Outdoor Industry Association began in 2006 to report annually on the activity of the outdoor recreation industry. Their reports provide great insight by supplying raw statistics about the reach of the outdoor recreation industry as a whole. Some surprising facts are that 3 out of 4 Americans engage in active outdoor recreation every year, 6.1 million jobs are supported across the U.S. from the direct effects of recreation, more Americans go camping than play basketball, 1 out of 20 Americans depend on the active outdoor industry to make a living, and more Americans owe their jobs to bicycle-based recreation than there are people employed as lawyers. The Active Outdoor Recreation Economy Report shows that when Americans recreate, they generate an immense amount of expenditure for the industry through the avenues of gear purchases, lodging, travelbased costs, and restaurants or food. Essentially, this means that recreation actually results in a lot of work. It is interesting to note that the large majority of expenditures generated through recreation are trip related; rather than gear related. Economic activity can be broken down into different categories such as direct, indirect, and induced. Direct impacts include all economic activity created between recreation participants and the firms who supplied goods or services for those participants.

Indirect impacts include all economic activity created by those firms and their suppliers of goods or services. Induced impacts include all economic activity created by expenditure of income by persons employed at firms that are impacted either directly or indirectly. Exhibit 1.1 illustrates well the different forms of employment that are created by consumer demand for outdoor products.

Exhibit 1.1

Source: Active Outdoor Industry Report 2012: http://www.outdoorindustry.org/pdf/OIA_OutdoorRecEconomyReport2012.pdf

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Many consider the outdoor recreation industry to be a largely overlooked economic giant. In 2005, outdoor recreation retail sales totaled $289 Billion, which is larger than industries like the automobile and light truck manufacturing industry (Outdoor Industry Association, 2006). The effect of expenditures could be considered implicit. But it’s important to realize that there are explicit effects generated by outdoor recreation and one of the most important is a healthy lifestyle. Healthier Americans will be able to be productive longer. This effect is real even though its quantification is not considered inside the parameters of GDP. There has been recent pressure that land management techniques be reconsidered (Burgin and Hardiman, 2012). Burgin and Hardiman’s article portrays a history of land use by those intending to recreate in natural areas. They report that more than 2 decades ago the intent of the majority of recreation occurring in wilderness and national park areas was simply to enjoy nature, the scenery, and to relax. The environmental impact from the traffic of these users was generally very low. The past few decades have seen a shift, however, as more and more people are beginning to participate in activities that leave a larger and larger impact on natural areas. Burgin and Hardiman give a brief explanation about activities they call ‘extreme sports’. Some of those extreme sports include: sport rock climbing, mountain biking, snow sports, and motorized sports like dirt-biking and fourwheeling. To understand the impacts of these activities some definitions may be beneficial.

Sport climbing is a form of rock climbing that employs the use of permanent anchors for protection.

This is different from trad climbing, or traditional climbing, which uses cams and other forms of removable protection that are set as the climber ascends. Sport climbing generally places more emphasis on difficulty and technique and less emphasis on adventure and risk than trad climbing.

Mountain biking needs less definition, but it is worth noting that there are multiple forms, or disciplines, that have developed in recent years. The most traditional form of mountain biking is cross-country, in which riders almost always ride in a full loop full of ascents and descents. Downhill mountain biking is named appropriately since riders typically ride only downhill, often at very high rates of speed, and then ride a chairlift or arrange a shuttle in order to return back uphill. Other disciplines of mountain biking exist but will not be defined in this paper. Extreme snow sports include alpine and telemark skiing, snowboarding, and snowmobiling. Alpine skis use bindings that hold both the front and back of the boot to the skis, but allow the boot to come free in the event of a crash. Telemark ski bindings allow a rider’s heels to lift as they turn from one side to the other. Snowboarding is the child of surfing and skateboarding. Snowboarders face sideways as they slide, with their feet permanently attached to the board by bindings. Snowmobiling is a motorized activity in which exploration and ascension of a variety of terrain is the chief objective. Dirt-biking and four-wheeling are also motorized activities in which riders challenge themselves in a similar way to snowmobiling, as they negotiate a variety of natural terrain.

These different activities potentially lead to an increase in pollution, littering, soil and vegetation damage, erosion, compaction, trail widening, reduced plant biomass, changed species composition, and incidence of weeds and pathogens. These effects are more likely now than ever because today’s participants in extreme sports benefit from advances in technology and evolution of technique. As a result, extreme sports participants are able to go faster, further, higher, and deeper. Also, the growth in popularity of the majority of these activities means they occur with increased frequency. Most

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natural lands have traditionally been managed with little to no input from different users. As various extreme sports have evolved and progressed so has their impact. Because of the change in impacts caused by these activities it would only make sense that land management techniques also are reconsidered in order to keep up with the evolution of extreme sports. Burgin and Hardiman propose that a more holistic approach be taken when considering land management, and that new measures be taken, with the interests of everyone involved, and that those interests be considered and applied. Proper allocation of land use could potentially increase the longevity and general health of our natural resources; as well as the protection, safety, and health of natural land users.

There has been a lot of marked change in the ski resort industry over the past 2 decades, as is highlighted in the report

by Colorado Wild & the Ski Areas Citizens’ Coalition (2008). The number of operating ski resorts has declined by as much as 33%, from 727 areas in 1984/1985 season to 481 areas in the 2007/2008 season. Even though the number of ski resorts has declined there has been an increase in ski visits annually, increasing from approximately 50 million in 1979 to over 60 million in the 2007/2008 season (NSAA, 2008). This is a result of fewer resorts being able to capitalize on a larger market share. An alarming statistic is that of the rising average age of participants at ski areas. Since 1997/1998 the average age of participants has risen from 33.2 to 36.5 in 2006/2007. Ski resort visitors between the ages of 15 to 24 have declined by 3 percent. The current conversion rate of beginners to core participants is a dismal 15 precent. If ski resorts are unable to attract young visitors, convert more riders from beginners to core participants, and increase the total number of beginners as a whole, then the industry seems to be doomed to perish. The National Ski Areas Association, (NSAA), has established an industry goal to increase the number of people trying the sport by 6 percent and also to increase the conversion rate of beginners to core riders by 1 percent annually. Unfortunately, 5 years after the model was put in place the beginner conversion rate has only increased by an aggregate 1 percent. Clearly, the skiing industry is in a mature state and is currently stagnant.

Other factors that have economic impacts on the winter tourism industry have been examined Page 6 | Facing the Facts: Outdoor Recreation, No Longer Just a Walk in the Park

recently (Burakowski and Magnusson, 2012). Burakowski and Magnusson’s article analyzed how much change occured in the winter tourism economy caused by the measured changes in climate and snow-fall. Burakowski and Magnusson used an IMPLAN model to predict that the winter tourism industry generates approximately $12.2 billion to the U.S. economy annually. This is an important industry that provides Americans with more than half a million jobs. However, empirical data shows that average winter temperatures across the United States have warmed 0.16 degrees Fahrenheit per decade since 1895 and the rate of warming has more than tripled to 0.55 degrees per decade since 1970. December 2011 to February 2012 was the 3rd warmest winter recorded since 1896. This is dangerous for the winter tourism economy because there are large differences in economic activity between years with heavy to light snowfall. Idaho, for example, is ranked 14th when considering the number of people employed by winter recreation. Despite the fact that Idaho is considered a relatively smaller player in the winter tourism industry, it experiences a loss of revenue generated by winter tourism of $43 million during years of low snow-fall. Colorado, on the other hand, supports the largest ski industry in the United States and boasts 20 percent of national ski visits annually. When they experience a year with low snowfall it affects their economy on a much larger scale. Colorado is estimated to lose $154 million and approximately 1867 jobs during low snowfall years. Exhibit 1.2 provides a comprehensive breakdown of Colorado’s winter industry and how it changes between low and high snowfall years. Climate change is a big concern for anyone related with this industry because decreasing snowfall does not just mean their personal recreation will be subpar; it could easily mean that they are out of a job as well.

Exhibit 1.2

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Scope and Purpose The scope of this paper is to attempt to anatomize the economics of recreation and the outdoor recreation industry on a national level. This will be achieved by identifying its size and importance as well as its major challenges and limitations. This paper highlights economic theory, past research regarding the current state of the outdoor recreation industry, historical weather data, retailer and manufacturer statistics, evolution of recreational activity, identifies issues that this industry is facing and must face in the near future, and considers what some potential solutions could be in order to aide industry sustainability. Many people do not currently recognize this industry’s importance to our nation’s economy, nor do they recognize or accept many of its threats. This reality may be due to its rapid growth and in some cases because of the age, culture, or mindset of many consumers.

I

t is the purpose of this paper to encourage positive change for retailers, manufacturers, political leaders, land managers, and end users or consumers. Increased awareness and education are always the first steps that the general public must take before any action can be expected.

Some of the potential threats that must be resolved will require the concerted effort of society as a whole before any change is likely to take place.

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Economic Theory The following information about economic theory is adapted from The Economics of Recreation, Leisure, and Tourism (Tribe 2012).

To analyze the markets for recreation, leisure, and tourism, the basic economic assumption that these are in many ways perfectly competitive markets is taken. When considering the impacts of a change in parameters, ceteris paribus is also assumed.

One of the most principal of microeconomic ideas is that of demand. Demand is a product of consumers wanting something and backing that desire with cash. As per usual, the price of a good or service affects the quantity demanded. The less expensive something is, the higher the quantity demanded will be. There are some exceptions to this assumption in the form of status goods.

The demand for status goods increases as price increases because of their exclusivity. Demand can also be affected by factors like disposable income, price of other goods, comparative quality, fashion and tastes, advertising, opportunities for consumption, population, and other factors.

To go hand in hand with the theory of demand is supply. Supply of goods and services in the recreation, leisure, and tourism markets is also very traditional. As the price of a good or service increases, so does the quantity supplied by firms. Supply is also affected by prices of other goods or services supplied; as well as changes in production costs, technical improvements, taxes and subsidies, and other factors.

When the demand for goods and services, and the supply of goods and services meet in the middle, an equilibrium price is established. In a perfect market no consumer will ever pay more than the equilibrium price because that would

be irrational. Firms, as a result, are price takers.

This is because they will be unable to charge more than consumers are willing to pay.

Exhibit 1.3 graphically illustrates these ideas.

Exhibit 1.3

The recreation, leisure, and tourism industries are obviously not perfect examples of perfect markets and so exceptions do exist, but most firms must follow the majority of the basic assumptions of perfectly competitive markets.

Macroeconomic theory provides a larger scale scope that is applicable to the economics of recreation, leisure, and tourism. One of the most basic of macroeconomic theories is that of the circular flow of money between households and firms. Households provide labor to firms, and firms provide goods and services to households. Households pay firms to consume goods and services. Firms pay households for their labor. The circular flow of income is illustrated on page 10 in exhibit 1.4.

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Exhibit 1.4

motor vehicles and parts (Outdoor Industry Association, 2012), and is therefore very important to the fabric of our nation. See Exhibit 1.5.

Such a large contribution to the economy supports a lot of employment. The majority of demand for labor in the recreation, leisure, and tourism industries is for that of unskilled labor. Because of the need for unskilled labor, wages in these industries is generally low.

The economic activity that results from this circular flow of money is measured as national income, national product, or national expenditure. Gross Domestic Product, which is a very important economic indicator, is then derived by utilizing the following equation: GDP = Govt. Consumption + Domestic Consumption + Investment + Net Imports/Exports – Taxes

The recreation services industry contributes a great deal to our national GDP, more so than Exhibit 1.5

Multipliers, in economic terms, help explain the idea that the circular flow of money actually creates more economic activity than the sum of the initial injection of funds. For example if a ski resort spends $1 million to build a new ski lift, there will expenditure by the resort for the factors of production equaling $1 million.

Spending does not stop there. Those employed by building the new lift will spend their money in the nearby economy, which results in increasing the incomes of those nearby firms who in turn spend their incomes as well. The net effect or economic impact of the new ski lift will exceed the initial $1 million.

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It can be difficult to measure economic growth and activity accurately. One of the most useful economic indicators for this type of measurement is gross national product. In order for it to be comparable from one country or region to another it must be adjusted for both inflation and population. Therefore, Real GNP per capita is usually the most accurate measurement. It is important to pursue economic growth because of the rationale that growth means an industry is healthy, and that through growth people’s lives become better. Economic growth can be achieved through an increase in the quality or quantity of inputs into an economy. For example, a region that benefits from natural land attractions can gain a competitive advantage over other regions. These types of inputs are especially important when looking at the recreation, leisure, and tourism markets as natural land attractions are usually a main reason for the selection of a destination. Other inputs include basic economic factors of production like labor, capital and technological developments.

There are two separate schools of thought when one considers the promotion of growth through government policy. Some would argue that governmental intervention is more successful because it balances and controls growth, where others argue that government intervention is just that, intervention. Those people would argue that a free market that is able to right or correct itself is the best incentive for investment.

From time to time free markets are likely to suffer periods of decline. Without intervention they can get stuck in a rut and the multiplier effect seems to only exacerbate the situation because no new money flows in, and the amount of money in the circular flow dwindles as it passes hands. It is thus required that regeneration, or other national growth strategies, be applied. Regeneration can be described as a new economic activity that is put in place to replace the gap left by declining industries. Examples could include new resorts, museums, expos and public gatherings. Anything that generates traffic to an area will aide in providing a new injection of money into a local economy.

For this reason it is important for markets to constantly consider strategies that involve creating new reasons to attract recreation, leisure, and tourism traffic. These industries can provide healthy growth to areas that have suffered from a decline in other more traditional industries.

This paper has already considered and explained some potential externalities to the environment through outdoor recreation. Externalities by definition are those costs or benefits that arise from production or consumption of goods and services which are not reflected in market prices.

Externalities can be either positive or negative. When one considers environmental economics it is especially important that they understand negative externalities. For example, consumers of dirt- bike products, and others, should consider potential negative externalities like soil and vegetation damage, erosion, compaction, trail widening, reduced plant biomass, changed species composition, and incidence of weeds and pathogens. This does not mean that dirt-bikers should avoid enjoying the activity that they love, but they should be aware of externalities and do their part to avoid them by following land management rules or guidelines, and by being responsible natural land users. Environmental economics suggests that well-being is insufficiently considered in conventional forms of economic measurement like GDP. The New Economics Foundation is a strong proponent of economic measurements like the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare, and the Happy Planet Index. HPI is calculated as follows: HPI = Happy life years / Ecological footprint Happy life years = life satisfaction x life expectancy

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Exhibit 1.6 displays the top 10 countries with the highest happy planet index rating. The United States of America is 105th on this list because of its high ecological footprint.

Exhibit 1.6

Source: Happy Planet Index. 2013. Retrieved Dec, 2013 from www.happyplanetindex.org/data/

The goal of environmental economics is to establish a link between: • • •

Economic consumption and production – in the case of this article, in recreation, tourism and leisure activities The relationship between consumption, production, and resources The ability of the ecosystem to absorb waste

For these reasons environmental economics is a proponent of adapting the basic macroeconomic model seen in exhibit 1.4 to include the use of sinks and sources and how they interact with environmental capacity. A society that includes the consideration of sinks and sources in a macroeconomic model is more likely to form policies with more positive external impacts caused by the circular flow of cash flow.

The environment and recreation, leisure, and tourism are inseparably linked since natural land is the stage on which these activities occur. There is an ironic bond between the relationship of these industries and the environment. The more attractive the natural land, the more activity it draws, which increases the potential negative externalities. It would seem that increasing economic activity, which is a common goal for any industry, is doomed to devour our natural resources. The loss of all our natural resources would ultimately cause a collapse of the recreation, leisure, and tourism industries as well as nearly every other industry. Therefore, careful consideration of what is a renewable resource versus what is a non-renewable resource is prudent.

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Climate change seems to be a buzzword in today’s society. It is important that it not simply become cliché in people’s minds, though, as it is an important issue for humanity to consider. It would seem that increasing population, production, pollution in the form of greenhouse gases, and loss of vegetation are beginning to take their toll. Recreation and tourism are significant contributors to CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions, mostly because of travel-caused impacts.

There are avenues for action that provide sustainability to the environment. Key milestones of actions already taken include: • • •

The United Nations Conference on the Human Environment held in Stockholm, 1972: Key outcome was creation of United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) The 1992 Earth Summit held in Rio, 1992: 182 governments adopted Agenda 21 – an action plan for the environment.

Climate Change 2007: This was the fourth IPCC Assessment Report and was a comprehensive assessment of the evidence on climate change.

Administrations, land managers, and even consumers should always consider the sustainability of their actions by considering: externalities, depletion of non-renewable resources, capacity of the environment, and the ‘polluter pays’ principle, which means that the cost of sustainable actions should be paid for by those who cause negative environmental impacts. Recent years have seen a popular trend among manufacturers and firms to go green. Going green means that actions are taken in order to reduce waste during business operations. Some place a negative stigma on these firms by calling them hippy or tree-huggers. The truth is, however, that if being hippy and going green helps preserve our natural resources then we will all benefit by doing just that. On the corporate level, some governments are now requiring larger organizations to include a corporate social responsibility (CSR) section to their annual reports, encouraging them to go green. These reports require firms to monitor their noise, emissions, wastes, congestion, and tourism or conservation impacts. These and other types of policies are ultimately beneficial to environmental sustainability and will aide in the seemingly necessary paradigm shift. If society as a whole is more concentrated on materialism and short-term gains then we are destined to over-consume and suffer potentially severe long-term losses. A joint effort undertaken by all humanity could mean a happier and brighter future for the whole world.

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Data Geographical Information Exhibit 1.7 and 1.8

Secondary source: State Parks and Recreation Areas by State. 2013. Retrieved Dec, 2013 from http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2012/tables/12s1253.pdf

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Exhibit 1.9

Exhibit 1.10

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Exhibit 1.11

State Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Kentucky Louisiana Maine Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Puerto Rico South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming Total

Acres 41,367 57,425,992 4,517,898 153,655 14,989,637 3,699,309 1,422,247 486,530 155,509 4,523,215 32,113 12,463 18,132 17,025 18,625 3,244 258,596 819,121 10,126 71,282 3,443,407 12,429 3,372,418 138,618 10,341 1,650,596 1,380 111,419 39,652 77 23,113 2,474,435 9,002 10,000 60,681 77,570 66,349 85,333 1,160,331 101,019 214,904 4,462,822 118,810 79,943 3,111,232 109,511,966

% of Total Wilderness Acres Less than 1% 52% 4% Less than 1% 14% 3% 1% Less than 1% Less than 1% 4% Less than 1% Less than 1% Less than 1% Less than 1% Less than 1% Less than 1% Less than 1% 1% Less than 1% Less than 1% 3% Less than 1% 3% Less than 1% Less than 1% 2% Less than 1% Less than 1% Less than 1% Less than 1% Less than 1% 2% Less than 1% Less than 1% Less than 1% Less than 1% Less than 1% Less than 1% 1% Less than 1% Less than 1% 4% Less than 1% Less than 1% 3%

Source: Wilderness.net. 2013. Retrieved Dec, 2013 from http://www.wilderness.net/NWPS/chartResults#

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Concentration of Activity Exhibit 1.12

It is surprising to note in Exhibit 1.12 how many more miles of trail there are in Colorado and California in comparison to the rest of the states. Exhibit 1.13 shows a more even distribution than the previous exhibit and is a graphic display of the average length of trails per state.

Exhibit 1.13

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Exhibit 1.14

Exhibit 1.14 shows the likelihood of not encountering another cyclist while riding. As displayed earlier, there are a lot more trails in California and Colorado than the other Rocky Mountain States, but there is also a much higher concentration of bikers so you are much more likely to encounter other people on the trail.

As titled, Exhibit 1.15 provides information on snowmobile statistics by state as well as population and registration information.

Exhibit 1.15

Source: Burakowski and Magnusson, 2012.

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Exhibit 1.16

This table displays the top 10 states for Off-Highway-Vehicle recreation use, ranking them by percentage of population participation. It is worth noting that nearly every Rocky Mountain State is on this list. Wyoming and Idaho in particular were only a tenth of a percentage point different from each other in the 1st and 2nd position, respectively.

Secondary Source: US Forest Service Off-Highway-Vehicle use. 2013. Retrieved Dec, 2013 from http://www.fs.fed.us/recreation/programs/ohv/IrisRec1rpt.pdf

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Exhibit 1.17

As noted at the top of this table, this is a display of the numbers and percentages of people, 16 and older, participating in outdoor recreation activities (for activities with fewer than 15 million participants). The activities most applicable to the scope of this paper include: snowboarding, snowmobiling, and rock climbing. Of those three, rock climbing is the only activity experiencing growth.

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Exhibit 1.18 shows moving averages of total activity days for skiing and snowboarding between the years of 2000 and 2008.

These figures definitely display that the number of skiers and snowboarders has declined for skiing or essentially remained flat for boarding. Earlier figures in this paper (Colorado Wild, 2008) showed that days spent skiing had increased but those figures were beginning as far back as 1979. It is clear to see that the more recent the trend is not as positive.

Exhibit 1.18

Source: Cordell, H. Ken, 2010. Outdoor Recreation Trends and Futures. Retrieved Dec, 2013 from http://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/pubs/gtr/gtr_srs150.pdf

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Exhibit 1.19

Secondary source: Cordell, H. Ken, 2010. Outdoor Recreation Trends and Futures. Retrieved Dec, 2013 from http://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/pubs/gtr/gtr_srs150.pdf

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Weather Data

Exhibit 1.20

Exhibit 1.20 (Burakowski and Magnusson, 2012) shows that average temperatures from 1970-2011 are on the rise.

There is a stronger warming trend for nighttime temperatures than daytime temperatures. However, the overall average trend for temperatures is still strong enough to be considered a statistically significant warming trend.

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Impacts of Climate Change or Weather Exhibit 1.21

Source: Burakoski and Magnusson, 2012. “Climate Impacts on the Winter Tourism Economy in the U.S.�

Retrieved Dec, 2013 from http://www.ropeways.net/rnn/konfig/uploads/pdf/44.pdf

This map shows the average percentage difference in skier visits for lower snowfall years compared to higher snowfall years between November 1999 and April 2010. It is interesting that there are actually locations that see a rise in skier visits during poor snowfall years like: North and South Dakota, Michigan, and Ohio. These states are not as known for having large mountains so their ski/snowboard markets are likely less sensitive to ski conditions. It is also probable that this is a result of locals in these areas riding nearby resorts instead of travelling farther away since snow conditions are poor enough to discourage long-distance trips.

It would also appear that some areas are surprisingly resilient to differences in snowfall.

Colorado, who boasts the most winter tourism of all the states, experiences a smaller effect, as a percentage, than states that support smaller winter recreation markets.

Colorado does suffer the largest loss in dollar-terms, however. New Mexico and Minnesota may suffer more as a percentage since potential winter tourists are more sensitive to snowfall. It is likely that many Coloradoans live a lifestyle that includes winter tourism regardless of conditions. Also, Colorado has enough destination resorts that it draws significant crowds to buoy their tourism industry regardless of snowfall.

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Impacts of Recreation Evolution The 1980’s and 90’s saw the beginning of the popularization of many recreation activities now considered ‘extreme sports’. Extreme sports are hard to define as a whole but tend to be activities whose primary objective is to provide an adrenaline rush to its participants and spectators. Some of the most popular extreme sports are: skateboarding, snowboarding, mountain biking, rock climbing, dirt-biking, and alpine skiing.

All of these activities have evolved and progressed a great deal over the past two decades, largely in part to media coverage of events and competitions. The birth of the X-Games in the 1990’s meant that the latest and greatest extreme antics were broadcast during primetime television. There has also been increasingly rapid growth in technology for these sports. Snowboards and skis, as well as their respective boots and bindings, have gotten much lighter, more responsive, more supportive, and most recently boards and skis have undergone drastic changes in shape and bend profile.

Mountain bikes have also experienced a large transformation. Advances in technology have allowed huge gains in suspension design and function. Downhill mountain bikes in the 1990’s often weighed 50+ lbs. Now bicycles frames and components make use of carbon fiber, which increases strength and rigidity, but its primary purpose for use in construction is that it allows for an incredible amount of weight savings. Dirt-bikes are no exception on this list. They are lighter, stronger, as well as benefit from gains in geometry and fuel injection. Today’s riders have more responsive, reliable, and predictable machines than their predecessors.

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Another beneficial advancement worth noting is that of the implementation of foam pits for use while learning new tricks or maneuvers.

Participants of extreme sports are able to use foam pits to practice certain tricks without having to worry about landing and riding away. This allows for a focus on technique.

Once riders or participants gain confidence in the air and have a feel for how to Photo by Sterling Lorence execute their trick they can then take it to the dirt or snow. This increases the likelihood of success and also decreases their risk, or likelihood, of incurring an injury.

Electronic technology, in the form of more sophisticated cameras, has helped riders to progress.

Today, every person with a cell phone can capture video of their friends as they ride. Riders can then rewatch what they just did. This allows for analysis and for potentially immediate correction. Riders used to have to wait til the end of the day, or sometimes the end of a season or year, for when the film was developed and produced.

Some people hypothesize that increases in outdoor recreation, and specifically extreme sports, is a result of our lives becoming safer, easier, and more convenient. Because of a lack of thrill through life’s daily activities, society begins to feel a need to experience a release that can be gained through experiencing an adrenaline rush. Many aspects of our lives have gotten easier. Things like washing machines perform tasks in an hour that used to take a full day. Refrigeration, microwaves, and ovens help enable the preparation of food and reduce time spent cooking. The honest truth is that society has never had it so good. With increased disposable income and leisure time the seemingly inevitable result is an increase in recreation.

Increased media coverage, advancements in technology, lower barriers for progression, and increased disposable income and leisure time have all led to increases in popularity for extreme sports. These same advancements or increases have also expanded the range of terrain on which extreme sports can occur. As noted, this growth has both positive and negative externalities. One potentially negative externality of the growth of extreme sports is the increase of high impact traffic on natural lands. Partially because the prevalent demographic for extreme sports participants is relatively young in age, they seem to be prone to less responsible action when considering the environmental impacts of their recreation. This is a problem, and it becomes a threat to the industry because we must all consider the sustainability of our actions in order to safeguard our future participation. Most participants feel like their actions are only a small drop in a large bucket of water, but if enough people do their part, then all of those drops can eventually add up and spill over.

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Retail and Manufacturing Effects

Photo by Ed Blomfield

Retailers and manufacturers need to be aware of the current state of the industry. Understanding allows them to accurately forecast future demand and adapt strategies to confront the threats the industry presently faces. The recently decreasing trend of snowboarders and skiers may mean that manufacturers needs to cut back in order to prevent an excess of supply. If manufacturers and retailers end up being overstocked then that means there is an effective reduction in the price they will be able to charge to consumers. This ultimately leads to a reduction in profits for the entire industry.

Other threats, like the trend of increasing temperatures demands other strategies. Much of the outdoor recreation industry has already shifted toward greener methods of manufacturing. These actions include recycling of materials, adaptation of high waste construction techniques to those that produce less waste, more efficient allocation of resources, lower shipping costs through changes in distribution, and other pollution reduction operations.

Retailers are the connection for the conveyance of manufacturer philosophy to their consumers and vice versa. It is therefore of paramount importance that they be aware of current issues on both the supply and demand side of the recreation industry in order to accurately and efficiently convey messages between both parties.

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Conclusion Outdoor recreation in general is on the rise (Cordell 2010). The current trend is that people are getting outside more as they recreate locally or participate in tourism.

Economic theory (Tribe 2012), along with statistical analysis shows that significant threats and issues do exist. In particular, the snow sports industry is currently in decline (Cordell 2010). The average age of visitors to ski resorts is increasing (Colorado Wild 2008), and total numbers of resort visitors has decreased over the last decade (Cordell 2010). Average temperatures are increasing (Burakowski and Magnusson, 2012) and if the current trend is not slowed or reversed it could easily spell the doom of an already declining industry.

Recreation has changed a great deal over the past several decades. Many users of natural lands are no longer there just to breathe the fresh air. Instead, their primary objective is to catch air and slap sky. It would only make sense that management of natural lands, which acts as the stage for recreation to occur, also evolve and progress in order to preserve natural lands for future users (Burgin and Hardiman, 2012). The purpose of this report is not to encourage that certain natural lands become completely off-limits to recreationalists, but to suggest that it could be beneficial for both end users, and land managers, to alter current habits in order to foster sustainable levels or types of traffic impact. Land managers who recognize the evolution of recreational activity may be able to more effectively allocate resources in a manner that is beneficial to everyone.

The outdoor recreation, leisure, and tourism industries play a vital role to the economy of the United States (Outdoor Industry Association, 2012). When Americans go outside and play they generate an enormous amount of economic activity. Considerate political policy, land management, manufacturer and retailer strategy, and consumer behavior can potentially safeguard the jobs of over 6 million Americans for many years to come. These same actions will ensure that outdoor recreation will never become a thing of the past.

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Works Cited Acres of Wilderness by State. 2013. Retrieved Dec, 2013 from http://www.wilderness.net/NWPS/chartResults# Burakoski and Magnusson, 2012. “Climate Impacts on the Winter Tourism Economy in the U.S.” Retreived Dec, 2013 from http://www.ropeways.net/rnn/konfig/uploads/pdf/44.pdf Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures by Type of Product, 2010.

Burgin and Hardiman, 2012. “Extreme Sports in Natural Areas: Looming Disaster or a Catalyst for a Paradigm Shift in Land Use Planning.” Journal of Environmental Planning and Management , Vol.55 Iss.7 Colorado Wild & The Ski Area Citizen’s Coalition. (2008). National Ski Industry Demographics and trends.

Retrieved from http://www.skiareacitizens.com/Demographics_Trends_2008.pdf Cordell, H. Ken, 2010. Outdoor Recreation Trends and Futures. Retrieved Dec, 2013 from http://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/pubs/gtr/gtr_srs150.pdf Happy Planet Index. 2013. Retrieved Dec, 2013 from www.happyplanetindex.org/data/ Mountain Bike Trail Data. 2013. Retrieved Dec, 2013 from http://www.singletracks.com/blog/mtb-trails/us-mountain-bike-trail-stats-the-west-and-states-withmountains-rule/ National Ski Areas Association: Kottke National End of Season Survey; 2008 Outdoor Recreation Economy Report. 2006. Outdoor Industry Foundation, Retrieved Dec, 2013 from http://www.outdoorindustry.org/images/researchfiles/RecEconomypublic.pdf Outdoor Recreation Economy Report. 2012. Outdoor Industry Foundation, Retrieved Dec, 2013 from http://www.outdoorindustry.org/pdf/OIA_OutdoorRecEconomyReport2012.pdf State Parks and Recreation Areas by State. 2013. Retrieved Dec, 2013 from http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2012/tables/12s1253.pdf Top States and Cities visited by overseas travellers. 2013. Retrieved Dec, 2013 from http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2012/tables/12s1261.pdf Tribe, John. 2012. The Economics of Recreation, Leisure, and Tourism. New York: Routledge Taylor and Francis Group US Forest Service Off-Highway-Vehicle use. 2013. Retrieved Dec, 2013 from http://www.fs.fed.us/recreation/programs/ohv/IrisRec1rpt.pdf

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