Nuclear energy prospects after Fukushima - The Asian experience (Hooman Peimani)

Nuclear Energy Prospects after Fukushima: The Asian Experience Seoul, 28 August 2012 Dr. Hooman Peimani Principal Fellow & Head Energy Security Division Energy Studies Institute Contributed by: SU, Liying (ESI Energy Analyst) Opinions expressed in this presentation are those of its presenter only. They do not reflect the opinions of the Energy Studies Institute.

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I. Introduction A. Asia’s energy requirements and projections for 2035 Energy Mix in Asia Oceania (1990-2035) Energy Demand (Mtoe)

Shares (%)

1990

2009

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2009

2035

Coal

835

2165

2729

2912

2969

3030

3101

47%

41%

Oil

646

1132

1320

1393

1485

1591

1687

25%

22%

Gas

137

437

605

735

829

940

1063

10%

14%

Nuclear

76

146

212

313

396

457

522

3%

7%

Hydro

35

84

120

147

174

191

201

2%

3%

Biomass and waste

481

565

594

627

662

703

749

12%

10%

Other renewables

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44

88

126

173

229

300

1%

4%

Total

2221

4573

5668

6253

6688

7141

7623

100%

100%

Note: The statistics are calculated by adding up OECD Asia Oceania and Non-OECD Asia.

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2011, p. 570-590.

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I. Introduction B. Domination of the Asian energy mix by fossil energy to continue C. Small share of non-fossil energy (renewables and nuclear)

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2011, p. 570-590.

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II. Nuclear Energy in Asia A. Five decades of nuclear energy starting in Japan

Source: World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in Japan. http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf79.html This Table continues over the next two pages

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II. Nuclear Energy in Asia

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II. Nuclear Energy in Asia

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II. Nuclear Energy in Asia B. Expansion of nuclear energy to China, South Korea and Taiwan Operating Nuclear Reactors in China

Source: World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in China. http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf63.html

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II. Nuclear Energy in Asia Power Reactors Operating in South Korea

Source: World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in South Korea. http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf81.html

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II. Nuclear Energy in Asia Operating Taiwan Nuclear Power Reactors

* Dates are for start of commercial operation Source: World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in Taiwan. http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf115_taiwan.html

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II. Nuclear Energy in Asia C. Asia-Pacific as the main arena for nuclear energy expansion Nuclear Energy Demand (Mtoe), 1990-2035

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2011, p. 544-615

Note: statistics are calculated by adding up OECD Countries and Non-OECD Countries in each region.

D. Slower growth of nuclear energy in other parts of Asia (excluding Eurasia) West Asia: Iran is the only country, which has built a nuclear reactor for electricity generation (Bushehr: 1000MW went online in 2011) 10

III. Demystification of the incident at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant 1 (FNPP 1) A. The incident was triggered by a record earthquake (9 degrees) followed by a major tsunami (15 meters high) 1.FNPP 1 tolerated the earthquake/tsunami 2.The tsunami damaged its cooling system leading to the core meltdown of its operating reactors 3.Limited release of radiation estimated at 10% of that of Chernobyl 4.No death or major injury caused by radiation 5.Human errors as the main cause: Vulnerability of the FNPP 1’s cooling systems to tsunamis due to miscalculations 6.Same incidents are avoidable by placing nuclear reactors’ cooling systems at a level immune to the worst-case tsunamis.

Proof: Japan’s nuclear power plants in the tsunami/earthquake-affected region (excluding FNPP 1) tolerated the natural disasters without experiencing any problem (e.g., Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant 2).

The FNPP 1 incident does not prove the unsafe nature of nuclear energy.

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III. Demystification of the incident at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant 1 (FNPP 1) B. Good safety record of nuclear energy: only three major accidents leading to the release of radiation since the nuclear energy era began •Three Mile Island (1979): no harm to humans and no major damage to the environment •Chernobyl (1986): human casualties and damages to the environment •Fukushima (2011): no harm to humans and no major damage to the environment

Source: Three Mile Island, 28 March 1979; Chernobyl Disaster, 26 April 1986; Fukushima Disaster, 11 March 2011. http://www.smashinglists.com/worst-nuclear-accidents-disasters-in-history/

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IV. The Post-Fukushima era A. Negative view among the population at large about nuclear energy Main reasons: –Lack of knowledge about nuclear energy –Exaggerated reporting on the incident

Source: 1. Anti-nuclear protest in Japan on Fukushima’s first anniversary. http://www.citizenside.com/en/photos-videos/20101/environment.html 2. Anti-nuclear rallies in Europe a year after Fukushima. http://www.euronews.com/2012/03/11/anti-nuclear-rallies-in-europe-a-year-after-fukushima

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IV. The Post-Fukushima era B. No major change in the global trends for nuclear energy expansion 1. Those uncommitted to nuclear energy in the preFukushima era and/or have alternatives have declared phasing out their nuclear sector or not opting for one a.Germany and Switzerland: It is uncertain if they will actually phase out their nuclear reactors at the end of their life span b.Italy will continue importing electricity from France’s nuclear reactors

2. Those committed in the pre-Fukushima era for certain reasons have remained so (e.g., Brazil, France and Russia) 14

IV. The Post-Fukushima era C. The Fukushima nuclear incident’s impact on Asia – Two distinct reactions in Japan and the rest of the continent

• Japan’s reaction: Exceptional to the continental reaction as it shut down all its nuclear reactors by June 2012 to conduct stress tests out of safety concerns and public pressure • Reaction in other parts of Asia: Emphasis on safety issues, but no major change in their nuclear energy policy

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V. Continued nuclear energy program in Asia A. The Asia-Pacific region 1. Major players: China, India, South Korea, Taiwan and Pakistan have remained the main arena for the global and Asian nuclear energy expansion Nuclear Reactors under Construction and Planned, China

Source: World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in China. http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf63.html

This Table continues over the next two pages

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V. Continued nuclear energy program in Asia

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V. Continued nuclear energy program in Asia

Wherever construction has started, the construction dates are marked in bold. Those reactors yet to be constructed are marked as 'planned' in the WNA reactor table.

On1 December 2011, China had 26 reactors under construction (27,640 Mwe) and 51 reactors planned (57,480 Mwe ).

Fangjiashan is sometimes shown as a development of Qinshan Phase I. * Approved, but construction delayed post-Fukushima

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V. Continued nuclear energy program in Asia India’s Nuclear Power Reactors under Construction

Source: World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in India. http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf53.html

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V. Continued nuclear energy program in Asia South Korean Reactors under Construction or Planned

Source: World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in South Korea. http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf81.html

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V. Continued nuclear energy program in Asia Taiwan Nuclear Reactors under Construction

Nuclear Power Reactors under Construction, Planned and Proposed, Pakistan

Source: World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in Taiwan. http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf115_taiwan.html World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in Pakistan. http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf108.html

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V. Continued nuclear energy program in Asia 2. New comer - Vietnam: Agreement with Russia for two 1000 MW reactors (construction of the first reactor is set to start in 2014 for completion in 2018) and another agreement with Japan for two similar reactors to come on line in 2024-25; talks with South Korea for another reactor

Source: 1. The sketch of Vietnam’s first nuclear power in Ninh Thuan Province. VietnamNews.biz. http://www.vietnamnews.biz/Nuclear-power-appraisal-council-to-be-set-up_180.html 2. Vietnam PM Dung receives Russian Deputy Foreign Minister A. Borodavkin. Both side discussed orientations and measures to enhance bilateral cooperation to accelerate the implementation of strategic cooperation projects, especially the project on construction of the first nuclear-power plant in Vietnam. 26 April 2011 http://english.vietnamnet.vn/en/politics/7549/government-in-brief-26-4.html

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V. Continued nuclear energy program in Asia B. West Asia & Eurasia 1. Iran has continued its program: Constructing its indigenously-designed 360MW light water Darkhoveyn reactor; plans for constructing two more reactors near the operating Bushehr Plant (two third-generation PWR nuclear reactors 1000 to 1600 MW each) 2. Turkey: Continued commitment to its 2010 agreement with Russia for its financing, building and operating four 1200 MW rectors in Turkey (Construction to start in mid 2013); two nuclear agreements with China were signed in 2012 but few concrete details were made available.

Source: 1. Bushehr I and II Nuclear Power Plants, Iran. http://www.power-technology.com/projects/bushehr-nuclear/bushehr-nuclear4.html 2. Two nuclear energy agreements were signed under the auspices of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Chinese counterpart Wen Jiabao in Beijing after their tete-a-tete meeting and a meeting between their respective delegations at the Chinese National Assembly. http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=88335

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V. Continued nuclear energy program in Asia 3. Armenia: continued use of its Soviet-built nuclear reactor (VER-440; net capacity 376 MW) -Approved in 2010 the construction of one unit (VVER1000MW; net capacity: 1060 MW) to be built by Atomstroeyexport beginning in 2012 for commissioning in 2019-2020

4. Kazakhstan: plan for a 600 MW nuclear power plant Source: The Metsamor nuclear plant at the base of Armenia’s towering symbol, Mount Ararat. http://www.zmescience.com/ecology/environmental-issues/amernia-metsamor-nuclear-power-plant-hazard-to-world-14354523/ http://www.epress.am/en/2011/03/21/metsamor-nuclear-power-plant-would-withstand-japan-earthquake-expert.html

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V. Continued nuclear energy program in Asia C. Persian Gulf/Middle East •UAE: Committed to its 2010 agreement with a South Korean consortium for building four 1400 MW reactors: Construction of Unit 1 started in July 2012 to be completed in 2017; other units set to be operational in 2018 (unit 2), 2019 (Unit 3) and 2020 (units 4).

•Jordan: Plan to start building a 750-1200 MW reactor in 2013 to become operational by 2020 and a second one to go online by 2025.

•Saudi Arabia: Plans to construct 16 nuclear power reactors by 2032 (17 GW of nuclear capacity) 25

VI. Asia’s commitment to nuclear energy in the post-Fukushima era A. Reasons for Asia’s commitment in the pre-Fukushima era 1.

Energy security (energy mix diversification) 2. Ending heavy reliance on imported fuels 3. Financial: heavy and growing cost of fuel imports

Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2011, pp. 40-41

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VI. Asia’s commitment to nuclear energy in the post-Fukushima era 4. Political/security reasons: concerns about the vulnerability of the Asian countries to political/military developments in their supplying regions Current Results of Arab Spring

Source: 1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Spring 2. An oil refinery in Libya burns during the rebels’ push towards Tripoli. Photograph: Sean Smith for the Guardian. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/sep/02/next-war-libya-one-for-oil

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VI. Asia’s commitment to nuclear energy in the post-Fukushima era 5. Depletion of oil/gas/coal reserves in fossil-energy-rich countries - According to BP, world proved oil, gas and coal reserves in 2010 were sufficient to meet 46.2, 58.6 and 118 years of global production, respectively.

6. Environmental reason: decreasing CO2 emissions to mitigate global warming

Asian countries had strong reasons to justify their opting for nuclear energy in the pre-Fukushima era Source: IEA Key World Energy Statistics 2011, pp. 4445.

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VI. Asia’s commitment to nuclear energy in the post-Fukushima era B. Reasons for Asia’s Commitment to Nuclear Energy in the Post-Fukushima Era 1. Continued validity of the pre-Fukushima era’s reasons 2. Good safety record of nuclear energy since 1950s - Only three major accidents - Non-nuclear power generation has been more dangerous to humans and the environment in the same period if their fuels’ production process is taken into consideration Coal as an example: •Thousands of coal miners are killed every year due to mining accidents throughout the world. In 2010, 2433 of miners were killed in China, for instance.

•CO2 accounts for the bulk of greenhouse gasses, the main cause of global warming.

Coal/peat burning for mainly power generation produced 12493 million tons of CO 2 in 2009.

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VI. Asia’s commitment to nuclear energy in the post-Fukushima era 3. Developments since 2011 with a positive impact on nuclear energy expansion a. Availability concern: whether enough oil and gas will be available •Concern about the availability of Arab oil/gas supplies given the prevailing political instability (e.g., Egypt) and, in cases, war (Libya and Yemen) in the Arab oil/gas exporters of mainly North Africa and a fear of expansion of such situation to the major Arab oil/gas exporters of the Persian Gulf (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and the UAE) •Concern about the availability of African oil supplies owing to: -- the independence of Sudan’s southern part containing about 90% of the country’s oil reserves, which became official on 9 July 2011 China, India and Malaysia have been the main investors in Sudan’s oil industry in absence of the major Western investors --continued civil war and lawlessness in Nigeria •Concern about the availability of Iranian oil/gas supplies due to the expanding UN-approved and unilateral sanctions on Iran and a threat of war in the Persian Gulf •Concern about a Western effort to physically control the major oil/gas exporting countries taking advantage of the current situation (e.g., Libya) 30

VI. Asia’s commitment to nuclear energy in the post-Fukushima era b. Affordability concern: unavailability of oil, gas and coal at affordable prices in a sustainable manner -- end of cheap fossil energy, particularly oil –Growing cost of fossil energy especially oil and gas –Growing cost of coal in Asia due to the growing need for cheap energy, depletion of oil/gas resources and Japan’s more use of coal in the postFukushima era.

–High oil prices to last in the foreseeable future due to various reasons particularly high demands and political uncertainties in many oil-producing countries.

c. Environmental concern: Necessity of mitigating global warming requiring a major reduction in oil, gas and coal consumption, which is not happening at the needed scale despite impressive efforts in China, India, Japan and South Korea 31

VI. Asia’s commitment to nuclear energy in the post-Fukushima era 4. Absence of environmentally-clean alternative to nuclear energy for largescale electricity generation –Wind, solar, wave and tidal energy are all necessary but unable to generate large-scale electricity due to their technological underdevelopment –Biomass generates CO2 –Biofuel: false promise for its production process is extremely pollutive and energy/water intensive

Source: 1. Photo of the Year in Sweden award, a bio-fuel factory in Brazil making “environmentally-friendly fuel” for the European market 2. Forest fire in Indonesia, Beawiharta/Reuters, March 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/03/science/03obfires.html 3. Haze and dust particles enveloped the Singapore city skyline, September 2011, http://bernardoh.wordpress.com/2011/09/10/welcome-to-the-2011singapore-haze-season/

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VII. Japan’s eventual rehabilitation of its nuclear power sector A. Importance of nuclear energy for Japan 1. Nuclear energy: accounting for 30% of its electricity generation before March 2011 2. Shortage of electricity due to the closure of all the Japanese nuclear power reactors

Source: 1. Author’s creation based on Electricity/Heat in Japan in 2009, IEA. http://www.iea.org/stats/electricitydata.asp?COUNTRY_CODE=JP 2. Power outages in Tokyo area after Fukushima, http://news.asiaone.com/News/Latest%2BNews/Asia/Story/A1Story20110314-268070.html

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VII. Japan’s eventual rehabilitation of its nuclear power sector 3. Absence of environmentally-clean alternative to nuclear energy to generate large-scale electricity 4. Unsustainability of the current dependence on mainly fossil energy for electricity generation for financial, security and environmental reasons Sudden increase in oil, gas and coal imports to generate electricity •Heavy financial burden •Increasing vulnerability of Japan to political and military developments in its supplying region •Growing CO2 emissions

5. Feasibility of safe operation of nuclear reactors Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/getujidb/index.htm#n

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VII. Japan’s eventual rehabilitation of its nuclear power sector B. Current situation and trends - New Japanese Prime Minister (Yoshihiko Noda): Shift towards rehabilitating the nuclear energy sector -Resumption of operation of two reactors in July (No. 3 and 4 reactors at the Oi Nuclear power plant, west Japan) - Japan will gradually re-operationalize its nuclear reactors excluding those, which cannot be upgraded to withstand tsunamis at an acceptable cost, and build new ones 35

VIII. Nuclear energy as a necessity for Asia • Asia must further diversify its energy mix in a sustainable manner to meet its growing energy demand • Nuclear energy is a necessity environmentally-friendly renewables

along

with

• Evidence suggests that Asia will remain the main scene for nuclear energy expansion despite the Fukushima incident 36

Thank you for paying attention!

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