Global climate (Howard Cork Hayden) USofA

Yes, the climate is changing.

(Almost) nobody ever said otherwise.

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Brief Outline Part 1: Some Climate History  Part 2: IPCC et al  Part 3: Adding Heat to the Atmosphere 

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Gee! The whole world is a bunch of pebbles!

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½-Billion years

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Pleistocene Ice Age

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½-Billion Years: 5 (very unequal) time brackets

Yes, the climate changes.

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CO2 concentration changes too!

25 X Present

10 X Present Present

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5 Million Years

Last big Yellowstone Eruption.

3-meters of volcanic ash in Texas

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400,000 years

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Retroactive Causality

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The Long Pleistocene Ice Age

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The Pleistocene Visits the Great Plains ca. 18,000 years ago (Last Glacial Maximum)

OMAHA !

ca. 450,000 years ago (Pleistocene Maximum)

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10,000 years (The Present Interglacial.)

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8,000 Years in Greenland

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Mt. Logan Glacier: 8,000 years old

Thanks to John Kehr CSU-Pueblo 2 December, 2017

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Hans Tausen Ice Cap: 4,000 years old

Thanks to John Kehr CSU-Pueblo 2 December, 2017

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Glacier between Mt. Churchill & Mt. Bona: 2,500 years old

Thanks to John Kehr CSU-Pueblo 2 December, 2017

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Quelccaya Glacier: 1,500 years old

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Oldest ice Laurentide Ice Sheet (Last glacial period) Covered Manhattan and Chicago with mile-thick ice.

Some of it remains on Baffin Island

Hans Tausen Logan

Churchill Quelccaya

Last Glacial Maximum CSU-Pueblo 2 December, 2017

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1,000 Years

The Hockey Stick HIGHLY promoted by the IPCC

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Last 0.00002% of age of earth

No Medieval Warm Period 900-1300

Climate Change DENIAL

No Little Ice Age 1680-1850

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Droughts in History

“Yes, climate change is already here,� said Richard B. Alley, a climate scientist at Pennsylvania State University CSU-Pueblo 2 December, 2017

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Glaciers, 1760-Present 44 Presidents have seen glacier decline

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Sea Level at the Battery

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Eustatic Sea Level

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Newsweek: 1880-1970

An Ice Age is imminent!

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Hurricane Power Dissipation Index

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Hurricane Power Dissipation Index

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Arctic Temperature Anomaly http://www.climate4you.com/Text /Climate4you_February_2017.pdf

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Arctic Temperature Anomaly http://www.climate4you.com/Text /Climate4you_February_2017.pdf

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Fidget Data Spinners: NOAA

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Fidget Data Spinners: NOAA

We know what’s happening now

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Fidget Data Spinners: NOAA

We know what’s happening now

It’s the past that keeps changing

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IPCC Assessment Reports

FAR (1991)

SAR

TAR

AR4

AR5

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“Climate Change” conferences The occasional IPCC conferences have a small contingent of scientists (perhaps 10%), but are basically attended by leaders of countries  The Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (like COP-23 in Bonn, 6-17 Nov, 2017) are most assuredly NOT about climate 

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23rd COP: Nothing whatsoever about climate Go here: https://cop23.unfccc.int/ COPs are about money and governance.

The news media call COPs “climate conferences”

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Required reading!

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Trenberth 1

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Trenberth 2

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Trenberth 3

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Trenberth 4

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Trenberth’s graph

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John Holdren 09/28/2015

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The Brainiacs at Science

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Models vs. Reality

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The Absorption/Re-Radiation Model The Thermal Equilibrium Model

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If you add heat, things get hotter Really?

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Climate as seen by Al Gore

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FAR Through AR5

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From Chapter 6, TAR

W W C  2C0  F  5.35 2 ln(2)  3.7 2 m m This formula, probably an overestimate, tells how much more IR is absorbed by the atmosphere as CO2 concentration increases.

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Hot Pot in Hot Oven Very large heat flow from walls to pot and from pot to walls.  No NET heat flow  Subtract out back radiation 

 390-324=66

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Back Radiation Subtracted

This is what you need to see heat transfer CSU-Pueblo 2 December, 2017

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Long story shortened ď‚ž

In the 15-micrometer IR range, there is no way that more than 0.1% of it can radiate to outer space!

CO2 Absorption Cross-Section

Some IR, way out in the wings, gets through More CO2 ďƒ¨ More IR blocked, way out in the wings (Hence the logarithmic formula.)

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IR measured from upper atm.

About 30%, Not <<0.1%

Absorption/Re-radiation model says that this peak should not exist

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What really happens

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Boltzmann Factors Excited vibrational & rotational states are in thermal equilibrium with surroundings  CO2: 3% of molecules are in 15 (667 cm-1) state. 

https://en.wikiversity.org/ wiki/Spectroscopy/Molecular _energy_levels

 (2% at high altitude

temps.)

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Dis-Equilibrium, Re-Equilibrium Collisions  IR absorption, IR emission  IR absorption, collisional de-activation  Collisional activation, IR emission  IR emission, collisional re-activation 

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Reason for CO2 Emissions from upper atmosphere At high altitude, “greenhouse gases” are earth-coolers 59

Radiation to Outer Space 83% of Earth-Cooling IR to outer space comes from the Atmosphere and GHGs

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Results of More CO2 in Atmosphere Stronger greenhouse effect (way out in the wings of the spectrum)  More water evaporation 

 Heats the atmosphere, and radiates upon

condensation

More Thermals  Warmer atmosphere radiates more IR  More cloudiness 

 Higher albedo Less sunlight reaching

surface

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Effects of Increased CO2 More warming of the atmosphere  More cooling of the atmosphere 

 But not as much as the warming ○ There’s always a coefficient



Earth’s climate is controlled by negative, not positive, feedback

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Letâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s put this graph in context

Absolute Temperature (K)

10ÂşC Span

292 288 282

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WORKING â&#x20AC;¦

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Proper Temperature Scale 300

200

Âą 1.5% Variation

Homework: Go design something --anything --- that will hold constant within Âą 1.5% for a million years without using 100 negative (corrective) feedback.

0

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Summary CO2 is an IR absorber  Adding CO2 to the atmosphere contributes some heat to the atmosphere, hence to the surface  There are mitigating effects  There is no evidence from a halfbillion years that CO2 has ever controlled the climate 

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DDP Omaha July 2016

From the top!

DDP Omaha July 2016

DDP Omaha July 2016

The President’s Cabinet           

 

Treasury has a Climate Change Adaptation Plan.

Defense has a Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap.

Justice has a Climate Change Adaptation Plan.

Interior has a New Climate Change Advisory Committee.

Agriculture has a Climate Change Adaptation Plan.

Commerce has a Climate Change Adaptation Strategy.

Labor has a Climate Change Adaptation Plan.

HHS has a Climate Change Adaptation Plan.

HUD has a Climate Change Adaptation Plan.

Energy has a plan to “fight climate change” Education: “Climate change could have an effect on the Department’s overall mission of promoting student achievement and preparation for global competitiveness,” and has a Climate Change Adaptation Plan.

Veterans Affairs has a blurb entitled “Climate Change Adaptation Planning” Homeland Security has a Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) Roadmap

DDP Omaha July 2016

Brainchildren at work

http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/education/literacy/climate_literacy.pdf DDP Omaha July 2016

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40% of the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s 7 billion people have no access to clean drinking water

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For Your Whale-Oil Lamps

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Energy Extraction & Turbulence

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At an OUTSTANDING site

10

20

30

40 mph

8760 hours per year 600

½ of time

11% of time at full power

400 200 0

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Texas Wind Performance Jacked up by factor of 10

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9.4 kW per acre Nameplate; 3.3 kW/acre, year-round average CSU-Pueblo 2 December, 2017

Not exactly steady as a rock

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Poverty and Electricity

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The World of Wood and Dung

“In rural sub-Saharan Africa, many women carry 20 kilogrammes of fuel wood an average of five kilometres every day.”

World Energy Outlook

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https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy10osti/45653.pdf CSU-Pueblo 2 December, 2017

Solar + Storage

Storage

Storage

Usage

Usage

Usage

Storage Storage

Solar must generate 6 ď&#x201A;´ average power.

Storage must have enough energy for 20 hours, or even days

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy10osti/45653.pdf CSU-Pueblo 2 December, 2017

Wind + Storage

Storage Usage

Usage

Storage

Wind must generate 3  Average Power Storage must be enough for ??? Hours, ??? Days …

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy10osti/45653.pdf CSU-Pueblo 2 December, 2017

Storage Usage

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Coal/Nuclear/CCGT + Storage

From Storage Storage

Pconst = 1.3 ï&#x201A;´ Paverage

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy10osti/45653.pdf CSU-Pueblo 2 December, 2017

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Effects of Climate Change!

Lots of links

and all on 0.006 ยบC per year!

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Effects of Climate Change!  

Amazon dry season greener Amazon dry season browner



Avalanches may increase Avalanches may decrease – wet snow more though [?]





      

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Bird migrations longer Bird migrations shorter Bird migrations out of fashion



 

Boreal forest fires may increase Boreal forest fires may continue decreasing Chinese locusts swarm when warmer Chinese locusts swarm when cooler

Earth’s rotation to slow down Earth’s rotation to speed up

 

 



Coral island atolls to sink [?]

Coral island atolls to rise [? – ?]



 



Columbia spotted frogs decline Columbia spotted frogs thrive in warming world

 

East Africa to get less rain East Africa to get more rain … and dozens more contridictions

and all on 0.006 ºC per year!

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You can’t make this stuff up!

“Women will disproportionately face harmful impacts from climate change,” [Barbara] Lee’s resolution reads. It continues claiming, “Foodinsecure women with limited socioeconomic resources may be vulnerable to situations such as sex work, transactional sex, and early marriage that put them at risk for HIV, STDs, unplanned pregnancy, and poor reproductive health.”

Breitbart.com Mar 26, 2015

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Dragon Science!

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Actual Effects

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A Complete List of All Bad Things Not Caused by Climate Change (a.k.a. Global Warming, a.k.a Carbon Dioxide, a.k.a. Carbon, a.k.a Exxon-Mobil, a.k.a. Coal, a.k.a. Koch Brothers, a.k.a. Climate Deniers, a.k.a. Science Deniers, â&#x20AC;Ś)

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