Why human CO2 does not change climate (Ed Berry) USofA

Link: http://edberry.com/blog/climate-physics/agw-hypothesis/human-co2-notchange-climate/ Please see link above for complete article, embedded hotlinks and comments. What follows are excerpts only. This document is under scientific review before publishing.

Therefore, we post only a few important excerpts.

Why human CO2 does not change climate

by Edwin Berry, PhD, CCM March 3, 2018 I submitted this preprint to an Elsevier journal on September 29, 2017. Therefore, the present copyright does not allow republication or reposting. If Elsevier accepts my preprint, I will pay the Open Access fee and post the Elsevier publication identifier here.

At that time, the copyright will change to allow use as described at the end of this post.

This preprint represents my climate research over the past year and is a significant improvement over my previous post “Why our CO2 emissions do not increase Atmosphere CO2.”

I believe this preprint proves the IPCC hypothesis is wrong. Several good physicists have studied this preprint and approved it. No one has shown it is wrong. . . .

Abstract The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claims human emissions raised the carbon dioxide level from 280 ppm to 410 ppm, or 130 ppm.

Physics proves this claim is impossible.

The IPCC agrees today’s annual human carbon dioxide emissions are 4.5 ppm per year and nature’s carbon dioxide emissions are 98 ppm per year. Yet, the IPCC claims human emissions have caused all the increase in carbon dioxide since 1750, which is 30 percent.

How can human carbon dioxide, which is only 5 percent of natural carbon dioxide, add 30 percent to the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide? It can’t.

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This paper derives a Model that shows how human and natural carbon dioxide emissions independently change the equilibrium level of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

This Model should replace the IPCC’s invalid Bern model.

The Model shows the ratio of human to natural carbon dioxide in the atmosphere equals the ratio of their inflows, independent of residence time.

The model shows, contrary to IPCC claims, that human emissions do not continually add carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, but rather cause a flow of carbon dioxide through the atmosphere. The flow adds a constant equilibrium level, not a continuing increasing level, of carbon dioxide.

Present human emissions add an equilibrium level of 18 ppm, which is the product of human carbon dioxide inflow of 4.5 ppm per year multiplied by the carbon dioxide residence time of 4 years. Present natural emissions add an equilibrium level of 392 ppm, to get today’s 410 ppm.

If human emissions continue as at present, these emissions will add no additional carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. If all human emissions were stopped, and nature stayed constant, it would remove only 18 ppm. The natural level of 392 ppm would remain.

1. Introduction The critical questions about climate change are not about whether climate has changed.

Climate always changes. The critical scientific questions about climate change are about cause-and-effect: 1. How much do human emissions increase atmospheric carbon dioxide?

2. How much does increased atmospheric carbon dioxide change climate?

This paper focuses on and answers the first question.

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) agrees that annual human carbon dioxide emissions are less than 5 percent of nature’s carbon dioxide emissions. Yet, the IPCC claims human emissions have caused all the increase in carbon dioxide since 1750, which is 30 percent.

The IPCC claims abundant published literature shows, with “considerable certainty,” that nature has been a net carbon sink since 1750, so could not have caused the observed rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Section 3.1 shows why this IPCC argument fails. . . .

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4. Conclusions This paper accomplished three goals: 1. It derived a simple Model that accurately computes how human and natural carbon dioxide emissions independently change the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

2. It answered the question: “How much do human emissions increase atmospheric carbon dioxide?”

3. It showed why IPCC’s claims and models are fundamentally wrong.

Contrary to IPCC claims, human emissions have not caused all the increase in carbon dioxide since 1750. Human emissions do not continually add carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, but rather cause a flow of carbon dioxide through the atmosphere. The flow adds a constant equilibrium level, not a continuing increasing level, of carbon dioxide.

The 1/e residence time of carbon-12 carbon dioxide, using IPCC data, is 4 years.

Human and natural emissions create inflows of carbon dioxide that create independent equilibrium levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. These independent equilibrium levels add to produce a total equilibrium level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Present human emissions add an equilibrium level of 18 ppm, which is the product of human carbon dioxide inflow of 4.5 ppm per year multiplied by the carbon dioxide residence time of 4 years. Present natural emissions add an equilibrium level of 392 ppm, to get today’s 410 ppm.

If human emissions continue as at present, these emissions will add no additional carbon dioxide to the atmosphere in the future. If all human emissions were stopped, and nature stayed constant, it would remove only 18 ppm. The natural level of 392 ppm would remain.

There is no “permanent” remainder of human or natural carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. If inflow is turned off, the corresponding equilibrium level will go to zero.

The level will approach zero according to the 1/e residence time of 4 years.

The ratio of human to natural carbon dioxide in the atmosphere equals the ratio of their inflows, independent of residence time.

All valid models must obey the Equivalence Principle and must replicate the carbon-14 data.

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IPCC’s Bern model violates the Equivalence Principle, does not reproduce the carbon-14 data, and predicts that 1000 years of “natural emissions” will permanently increase the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by 15,000 ppm.

Since IPCC’s Bern model is a curve-fit to the output of climate models, the inaccurate and invalid Bern Model proves IPCC’s climate claims are wrong. The (Berry) Model should replace the IPCC’s invalid Bern model.

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