Can carbon capture and sequestration fight climate change? Terigi J Ciccone May 27, 2022 The assumption stated and implied in the question is that human-made CO2 has increased global CO2, and this increased CO2 and the greenhouse effect (GHE) continue to increase global temperatures. But, as discussed below, this new fantasy of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) can become a global economic disaster even if it works. So, let us examine the relevant science, facts, and historical records and see where they lead us. Let's analyze the historical data with amounts, timing, and proportions. First, see Figure-1, the global temperature reconstruction of the Northern Hemisphere since the earth emerged from the last ice age about 9,000 years ago. The Northern Hemisphere is particularly sensitive to cooling because of the huge landmass compared to the Southern Hemisphere, which is dominated by the oceans. Here we see six warm periods interspersed with several cold periods. Also, note that four previous periods were warmer than the modern warm. Note in particular the Little Ice Age (LIA) that started in the 14th and lasted until the mid-19th century. Then, within the LIA, the Maunder Minimum lasted about 70 years, when the coldest period occurred since the end of the last ice age. So, the planet was bitter cold for 500 years, the oceans had cooled, and it took about 200 years to warm them back up. We also noticed five warm periods over the last 5,000 years, followed by four cold periods. So, there's about a onethousand-year pattern emerging, all the while the temperature slightly declined in the past 6,500 years. Secondly, we are told that the increased human-made CO2 caused increased warming over the last 150sh years. Clearly, Figure-1a demonstrates no relationship 1
between the red temperature line and the CO2 black-dot line. Note that the temperatures are shown at the practical human level, temperatures we feel and can relate to, and not some decimal deviation from an abstract zero baseline. Further, we note that all of the variations, the ups, and the downs, in temperature since 1895 essentially stayed within about 2 degrees F. Yes, the chart is a few years old, and CO2 has climbed relentlessly to the present 420 ppm. But satellite data, both UAH and RSS, shows that global temperatures have been moderating since about 1998/99. [i]
Fig-1b
In Figure-1b are the latest RSS satellite temperature anomalies since 1980. Note also there are 6-blue arrows indicating powerful El Nino warming years. In addition, there were three powerful basaltic heating volcanic eruptions in the Pacific Northwest of the Axial Seamount, 300 miles off the Oregon coast, gold arrows. The popular press referred to these three warmings as "Heat Blob," the "Son of Blob," and "Return of the Blob." Were it not for these El Nino warmings and other deep ocean volcanic activities; the global climate might well be back to about a net-zero increase? These El Nino warmings were once considered heat redistribution and transport; however, the latest findings conclude that the heat source is geologic/tectonic. [ii] Physics 101, why is the warming of the oceans so important? 1. The oceans contain about 50 to 80 times more CO2 than the air, and recent findings indicate that deep ocean volcanic CO2 is far greater than previously thought. [iii] It's estimated that more than 80% of all volcanic activities on earth are in the deepest oceans and under ice sheets and glaciers. This is important because the air and oceans continuously exchange CO2. But when oceans cool, they slowly suck more CO2 out of the atmosphere than the oceans return to the atmosphere. [iv] The opposite happens when the oceans are warming up; the oceans outgas more CO2 into the atmosphere. This warming ocean water has been responsible for at least 50% of the increase in CO2 in the last 150 years. [v] Also, the heat capacity of the ocean waters is about 1000 times greater than the air. That means that the seas can hold 1,000 times more heat than the air, so it takes a longlong time for oceans to warm and cool, but the atmosphere does it in a day. 2. In Table 4.16.1 is data derived from the UN/IPCC Assessment Report, figure 7.3 of AR4. [vi] It shows the production sources of CO2 and consumers of CO2. For example, humans produced only 3.6% of the total 801 GT (Giga Tons), while nature produced about 96.4%. So, if 2
humans stopped all CO2 production, nature would continue to increase CO2 beyond the present 420 ppm. 3. There's another deception here. People have been led to believe that CO2 remains in the atmosphere for a long time and keeps increasing and accumulating. But that is not the case [vii] as more atmospheric CO2 becomes available, plants and phytoplankton gobble it faster, allowing plants to grow bigger, faster, and more plentiful. This is demonstrated by the fact that the earth has been greening like crazy and arid regions are decreasing. [viii] The above table shows that total CO2 production was 801 GT, but total consumption was 788 GT, so only 13 GT or 1.6 % of total CO2 production was left in the air this year. More importantly, the human-made portion of this 13 GT CO2 residual in the atmosphere is a trivial 0.06%. 4. The idea that CO2 causes global warming have been around for more than 150 years. Hundreds of $billions have been spent on research at our finest universities by our best scientists and laboratories. Yet to this day, no scientific experiment has ever been done that shows that CO2 causes global warming. The only place that offers this CO2 warming is in the IPCC-sponsored illusive Radiative Transfer Equations (RTE). Worst yet, the IPCC scientists cannot even explain the "RTE" with physics, chemistry, or thermodynamics.
MTTP
5. In Figure-2 is the earth's temperature record, showing a strong correlation with the amount of solar power reaching the earth over the previous 2,000 years (red). [ix] The incoming solar energy is measured in Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and expressed in Watts per square meter/second (W/m.2). This is not a temperature measurement but only a measure of radiative energy. Here we see a powerful controlling factor in the two-1,000 year cycles. Note mainly how both periods cool over 700 years and then quickly warm back up in only 300 years. Also, note, in particular, the Millennial Temperature Turning Point (MTTP) at about 1000 AD and in 2004. More importantly, note that global warming started about three hundred years ago because it takes a long time to warm the massive oceans.
6. However, solar power is not the only factor that shapes short term climate change. Please note the prominent Vs and their locations. These large Vs document significant historical eruptions of explosive volcanoes. If you follow the Vs straight up, you will see that each corresponds to the start of a substantial reduction in global temperatures. 3
The scientific explanation is that these exploding silicate-rich magma volcanoes blast gazillion tons of dust, gasses, and aerosols high into the stratosphere. These particulates increase the earth's albedo, which reflects more sunlight to space, reducing the sunshine that reaches the earth and thus cooling the planet. IN ADDITION, when low solar activities coincide with volcanic cooling, an amplification mechanism makes the cooling period even colder. Solar winds power is significantly reduced during low solar activity periods. Why is this important? Powerful solar winds sweep away many of the Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) from entering the earth system. But during periods of low solar wind power, more GCR enter the earth, causing more and bigger clouds to form, further reducing the amount of sunlight entering the earth and further cooling the planet. This is seen with the significant cooling periods where W is the Wolf Minimum, S is the Sporer Minimum, M is the Maunder Minimum, and dV is the deVries Minimum. These cold 4-periods had increased volcanic activities, reduced TSI solar activity, and increased cloud cover from increased GCR. 7. Then it worsens as a strong correlation has been found between increased GCR entering the earth and eruptions of silica-rich volcanoes. See the groundbreaking paper, "Explosive Volcanic Eruptions Triggered by Cosmic Rays: Volcano as a bubble chamber." June 2011 by Toshikazu Ebisuzaki, Hiroko Miyahara, Ryu Kataoka , Et All. Essentially makes a robust 97% correlation between increased GCR entering the earth and increased explosive volcanic activities. See the complete paper at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1342937X10001966. 8. Lastly, satellite data confirms that the low TSI has slightly reduced global temperature for the past 20 years and is likely to continue for the next 30 years or more. For example, global temperatures had reached a high of about 1 degree C, above 1979. But as of March 2022, global temperatures have already reduced that 1C increase to less than 0.4 C. So, global cooling should concern us for the next several decades and not global warming. 9. Lastly, look at Figure-3, where we are told that the MTTP (Millennial Temperature Turning Point) occurred about 1000 AD. [iii] The same paper tells us that the earth reached its second MTTP in 2004 and takes about one Schwalbe cycle, 11-12 years after reaching its high during the solar cycle 22. The shaded gold areas shown in Figure-3 are the powerful El Nino warming pulses. This 4
indicates additional geologic heat added to the increased solar energy from 1980 to 1998/99. Based on the above discussion and the cycles and trends in Figure-3, the forecast for the remainder of solar cycle 25 and beyond is an extended global solar cooling period. However, we must keep in mind the enormous heat of these El Nino and volcanic activities. If they continue their 40-year trend, this El Nino/volcanic activity will moderate the solar temperature decline and make for a more comfortable and livable climate.
To sum it up, the evidence is that the earth slowly warmed up starting in 1980 due to increased Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and increased geologic heating until about 1999. Then for the following 20 years, the TSI began a cooling cycle attenuated by increased levels of geologic heating. Yet the sun is the culprit in three critical cooling phases: - The sun is sending decreased TSI to earth, causing a slow cooling trend beyond cycles 25, 26, and possibly 27, and - Because of decreased solar wind strength, we have increased cosmic rays penetrating the atmosphere, increasing cloud cover, causing more cooling and increased rain in many parts of the earth, and - Because of increased cosmic rays penetrating the lava chambers of the silicate-rich volcanoes, we can expect an increase in explosive volcanic activities, causing even more cooling. The wildcard is, what is the forecast for El Nino and other geologic/tectonic activities? Will they accelerate the solar cooling or mitigate it and keep us in our Goldilocks zone??
So, if you want to waste money on carbon capture, go for it, waste $trillions instead of using that money to adapt to the coming cooling and improve the health and wealth of humanity.
Notes and references. [i] UAH global temperatures from 1979 to April 2022. https://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/ . RSS temperatures shown here https://images.remss.com/msu/msu_time_series.html [ii] “Why El Niño and La Niña are One Continuous Geological Event” by James Edward Kamis on February 4, 2016http://www.plateclimatology.com/why-el-nio-and-la-nia-are-onecontinuous-geological-event/ [iii] “Discovery of Massive Volcanic CO2 Emissions Puts Damper on Global Warming Theory Written by James E. Kamis on November 6, 2018. Recent research shows that the volume of volcanic CO2 currently being emitted into Earth’s atmosphere is far greater than previously calculated, challenging the validity of the manmade global warming theory. http://www.plateclimatology.com/discovery-of-massive-volcanic-co2-emissions-putsdamper-on-global-warming-theory 5
[iv] See article “Warmer oceans release CO2 faster than thought” https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn20413-
warmer-oceans-release-co2-faster-than-thought/ [v] Ocean waters outgas CO2 as waters warm, https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn20413-warmer-oceans-releaseco2-faster-than-thought/ [vi] CO2 balance sheet for typical year. Souce A hitchhiker’s journey Through Climate Change, Chapter 4.6. [vii] “ However, for CO2 it is different: the residence time is quite short - only a few years, while the lifetime or adjustment time is much longer, as described by Brian Brady above. The reason is that the CO2 sinks are not first order processes but react to an increase in atmospheric CO2. E.g. ocean CO2 uptake increases the surface ocean partial pressure of CO2, which reduces further CO2 uptake. “ https://www.researchgate.net/post/What-are-the-residencetimes-of-common-green-house-gases-and-how-are-they-determined [viii] Greenpeace founder Patrick Moore https://enigmachronicle.com/2019/12/09/patrick-moore-the-positive-impactof-human-co%E2%82%82-emissions-on-the-survival-of-life-on-earth/ [ix] The Millennial Temperature Turning points and relationship between TSI and global temperatures. https://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/
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