DISCUSSION
NOTE: The author takes full responsibility for the information here. He has benefitted from studying several thousand articles, presentations, videos, and eBooks from over 1,500 authors around the world.
1) Climate Change.
a) Climate changes all the time. Causes - events in the solar system and on Earth.
b) It is imperative that we pay attention to these natural climate changes and properly prepare for them or suffer the consequences. History is full of examples.
c) Since the 1800s, fossil fuels have tremendously benefited the world. At the same time, use of fossil fuels has added carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. This has caused considerable controversy and debate in Australia, Europe, New Zealand, and North America. Less in most of the rest of the world. Is the additional carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from use of fossil fuels beneficial, neutral, or harmful? Scientists, engineers, and politicians have different answers.
d) Carbon dioxide is the molecule of life. At 280 to 400 ppm atmospheric concentration, we are near the lower limit where life can exist. We need lots of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere for all the rest of our time on Earth. We should welcome 800 to 2000 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere. Natural processes sequester atmospheric CO2 when marine life dies and sinks to the bottom of the oceans and becomes carbonaceous sedimentary rock. Then carbon dioxide is gone forever! Building machines to sequester atmospheric carbon dioxide in the ground and stop use of fossil fuels (and their synthetic equivalents) is the worst idea world leaders have come up with yet.
e) Many scientists on both sides of the argument examine only sunlight in, infrared radiation out and the interaction with atmospheric carbon dioxide to predict global average temperature change to a few degrees Centigrade. There is a lot more to climate change than just a snapshot of sunlight in, infrared radiation out and the interaction with atmospheric carbon dioxide.
f) Fortunes larger than what have made or bankrupted whole nations in the past are being spent on investigating atmospheric carbon dioxide, predicting climate change, and forcing change from fossil fuels to wind and solar energy. Wind turbines and solar photovoltaic panels have had no effect on climate change but
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have destroyed or will destroy major economies and fill waste dumps. There will be needless suffering and death in wealthy nations and devastating suffering and death in poorer nations. The questions related to climate change are addressed in this section. The questions related to use of energy in the next section.
g) Can infrared radiation from land and oceans cause very small amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to significantly heat the rest of the atmosphere, oceans, and land? The answer is that the infrared radiation activated atmospheric carbon dioxide molecules do have a small influence on nearby molecules and much smaller influence on remote atmospheric molecules, and molecules in solids and liquids on land and oceans. A concentration of 0.04% atmospheric CO2 means that for every molecule of carbon dioxide there are 2,499 other molecules in the atmosphere, mostly oxygen and nitrogen. There are many more molecules on land and in the oceans that are supposedly warmed by infrared radiation striking each CO2 molecule. Most people with fundamental understanding of physics or just good logical thinking can not understand how one mildly activated CO2 molecule in the atmosphere can activate (heat up) several thousand molecules in the atmosphere, on land, and in the oceans. But the alarmists are certain and determined to stop use of fossil fuels.
h) CONCLUSION: THERE IS NO CATASTROPHIC MAN-MADE GLOBAL WARMING, OCEAN WARMING, ARCTIC AND ANTARCTIC ICE MELT, CORAL BLEACHING - FROM CARBON DIOXIDE FROM FOSSIL FUELS OR NATURAL CARBON DIOXIDE SOURCES.
i) The claim of catastrophic man-made global warming from use of fossil fuels violates science! Alarmists and their politicians want to destroy humanity!
2) Energy from coal, oil, natural gas, and nuclear power - past, present, and near future.
a) Coal, oil, and natural gas have provided about 80% of the world’s total energy needs from the early 1900s to the present. Their by-products are used in almost all aspects of our lives. Liquid fuels do a lot of things that electricity can not do or can not do at the same low cost. Electricity controls nearly everything, including communications and computers. It is an absolutely essential commodity. Recommending to abandon fossil fuels and switch to wind and solar is one of the worst ideas any government has ever had.
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b) When the world runs out of oil and gas, the most logical replacements will be synthetic liquid and gas fuels made with the help of nuclear power. We will be able to use the same or similar engines for cars, trucks, machines, furnaces, and the same fuel distribution and storage systems.
c) The Light Water Reactor, LWR, nuclear power technology developed mainly in the USA, France, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and South Africa is excellent for generating electricity. It is used in many other countries. LWR and HWR nuclear power is the total opposite of the negative features of wind and solar photovoltaic electrical energy. Russia and China followed our example and improved the licensing and construction process.
d) The CANDU Heavy Water Reactor, HWR, nuclear power technology developed in Canada does not need uranium enrichment and is an excellent technology.
e) These nuclear technologies use only about 1% of the available nuclear energy in the uranium ore. The other 99% of available energy could be accessed if we reprocessed the used nuclear fuel and depleted ore from the uranium enrichment. We would do this in fast reactors, not LWRs. But antinuclear alarmists and their presidents stopped nuclear fuel reprocessing and fast reactor development starting in the 1970s with Jimmy Carter, John Holdren, Frank von Hippel, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, and others. The other party has not prevailed to keep nuclear power and advanced nuclear power going. The anti-nuclear power alarmists and their presidents have done an amazing job.
f) The Nuclear Regulatory Commission bowed to demands of antinuclear power activists and their presidents. They helped make licensing unnecessarily slow and expensive. The skills, knowhow, experience, management talent, and manufacturing capability have all but disappeared in the USA. For practical purposes, large LWR nuclear power plants will not be built in the USA in the next 40 years or longer. It would be necessary to get the antinuclear power protestors under control and revitalize the licensing process, first.
g) A lot can be done with Small Modular Reactor technologies, SMR: improved cash flow, less risk of investment, improved protection against terrorist attacks or acts of war, streamlined licensing. SMRs can use uranium and thorium. They can be put on moveable barges and taken anywhere needed. They can be floated up rivers and along coastlines without needing hundreds of miles of highways and bridges designed for heavy loads. They can be located around megacities for building heating and improved blackout protection. Recycling is streamlined.
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h) We have been talking about uranium fuel technologies. A lot more can be done with thorium fuel technologies. Uranium and thorium can provide for all the world’s energy needs for as far into the future as we can imagine.
i) Coal fired electric generating plants have carried the majority of the burden for generating electricity from the beginning. In the early days there was not much anti-pollution technology to remove impurities in the smoke stack. Today, there are a lot. Countries in North America and Europe can pay the extra cost for the pollution control. Countries in Africa and Asia are less inclined to pay for pollution control. But they will come around. They want a clean environment as soon as they can get it.
j) Getting the USA to use nearly 80% nuclear power for generating electricity will probably take about 100 years. The rest of the power would come from natural gas and hydro. In the meantime, clean coal with scrubber technology and natural gas can generate a lot of electricity in the USA. Germany is leading the development of clean coal generating plants. We will need good mining practices, plant off gas pollution control systems, and management of waste coal ash. That comes with reasonable regulations.
k) Besides the battles of fossil fuels and nuclear versus wind and solar, there are very important geopolitical battles. See The New Great Game.
l) Calling used nuclear fuel and depleted uranium hazardous waste and demanding it be put deep in the ground and locked up for a million years is the work of the devil. The real hazardous waste is a small fraction of the used nuclear fuel and depleted uranium. Alarmists demand it be put deep in the ground and locked away forever. The real hazardous nuclear waste can be stored in simple, ground level sites for about 500 years. Expansion of these facilities is easy. The French have been doing it for decades. The used nuclear fuel and depleted uranium is worth many trillions of dollars.
m) Besides uranium nuclear power technologies, there are thorium nuclear power technologies with even more energy potential. Together uranium and thorium fission nuclear power technologies can provide for all of the world’s electrical energy needs and energy for manufacturing synthetic fuels to replace coal, oil, and natural gas when they are no longer available. This can take care of the world for tens of thousands of years.
n) Getting most of the world on nuclear power will take several hundred years. Countries need modern economies, domestic industries, good education, better
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governments, and an end to regional wars, just like for development of nuclear power in Japan, South Korea, South Africa, Europe, and North America.
o) Vaclav Smil wrote that energy is the only real currency. With it you can do work. All paper and digital currencies are only worth the trust we put in them. That can deteriorate over years, months, even days. It has happened many times.
p) Wind and solar energy technologies are the “problem child” of politicians.
q) Battery powered electric cars are the “problem child”of the auto industry.
r) Expensive, large lithium batteries and hydrogen fuel cells create millions of problems. They don’t solve them. A simple metal gas tank for storing liquid fuel is much better. The disposal of so many large lithium batteries is a nightmare.
3) Comments on nuclear power and research reactors around the world.
- Most countries: High capacity factors. Good maintenance and repair. Good operating and maintenance staff. Good management.
- Belgium: Outstanding operation of nuclear power plants.
- Bulgaria: Good operating and maintenance programs with older designs.
- Canada: Development of a design that does not use uranium enrichment, the CANDU Heavy Water Reactor. Outstanding operations.
- China: Outstanding support for nuclear power and development of new nuclear power designs. Exceptional speed of licensing and construction.
- Czech Republic: Excellent operating and maintenance with older designs.
- Finland: Leadership in latest nuclear power plant design use.
- France: Exceptional long-term site planning, standardization of design, optimization of staff, spare parts, and development of used fuel recycling.
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- Germany: Outstanding design and operation of their own power plants. Leadership in designs for the future.
- India: Excellent education and early pioneer.
- Japan: Outstanding nuclear power program and advanced nuclear power development.
- Mexico: Good operating and maintenance program.
- Pakistan: Good operating and maintenance program.
- Russia: Outstanding development of their own nuclear power plant design and advanced designs. Exceptional speed of licensing and construction.
- South Africa: Outstanding scientists and engineers for nuclear power and production of medical isotopes delivered to 60 countries. Operated the only nuclear power station in Africa for over 30 years. This is the world’s most southerly nuclear power plant. Was the first country in the world to start the development of a commercial SMR. Currently two designs exist in an advanced stage, the PBMR and the HTMR-100.
- South Korea: Outstanding nuclear education for students from around the world. Outstanding design and operation of domestic power plants. Outstanding construction of nuclear power plants around the world.
- Spain: Outstanding operation of nuclear power plants and training of operators from around Europe.
- Sweden: Outstanding operating experience. They could take a much larger role in promoting nuclear power around the world.
- Switzerland: Outstanding education for scientists and engineers. Outstanding operation, power upgrading, maintenance of several different types of nuclear power plants. Outstanding nuclear regulatory function.
- UK: Good program with their own nuclear power technology. Developed their own fast reactor technology.
- Ukraine: Outstanding operation of older designs.
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- USA: Outstanding operating and maintenance. Outstanding leadership in fast reactor development.
- USA: Several major problems
a) Government blocked use of fast reactors and used fuel reprocessing. Prevents use of 99% of energy in uranium ore. Disgrace to the world.
b) Does not use thorium reactor technology. Lots of energy going to waste.
c) Nuclear professional organizations and advocate organizations support man-made global warming alarmism and claim that nuclear power can solve or ameliorate the global warming crisis. Nuclear power can not / will not do any of this. Alarmist nuclear professionals and nuclear advocates demonstrate their willful lack of knowledge about what causes climate change. It is a disgrace to nuclear professionals and advocates who understand and appreciate the role of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
3) Energy for the long term future.
a) Nuclear power from fissioning of uranium and thorium can meet all of the world’s energy needs for electricity, transportation, manufacturing, mining, space heating and cooling, and other purposes for tens of thousands of years. Fission nuclear power is plentiful, safe, reliable, and environmentally friendly. These technologies are proven or highly advanced. Besides generating electricity, nuclear power will be used to manufacture synthetic fuels for all the uses fossil fuels cover now. Nuclear power will generate hot water for use in central heating for blocks of apartment and condominium buildings across whole cities.
b) People have wished for and been promised fusion nuclear power for fifty years. It has always been “twenty years away.” It is definitely needed to travel beyond Mars and to the next solar system. It will be great when we overcome all the technology challenges and it is affordable. However, the promise of fusion nuclear power will not win votes in American elections.
c) Governments in North America and Europe are forcing their people to switch to battery powered cars. What a shame. Here is what mining and rare earth mineral expert, Jim Kennedy at ThREE Consulting, advises:
- The U.S. would need 2,250 terawatt-hours of new electric generation, or a 60%
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increase over our current level of generation, to power an all EV fleet. That will require installing 570 gigawatts of new generating capacity (for the U.S. alone) All of that, presumably powered by solar & wind generation capacity, would need to compete for the same scarce technology resources At some point you must recognize you are plundering the earth to save it …
- None of the wind, solar or EV systems are viable without massive grid-scale energy storage. How else do we drive our cars or heat our homes on a windless night ? What happens when we have days of overcast skies & little wind ? If energy storage is to be achieved by chemical battery storage, the resource constraint issue only gets worse. Proven non-chemical storage, such as hydro-electric pump storage, are opposed by the same sort of folks that demand this ‘green transition’ happen without question or delay. There is no reasonable / rational / reliable solution to the storage challenge… other than wishful thinking.
About the author: John Shanahan is a civil engineer in Denver, Colorado, USA. He has 25 years experience in commercial nuclear power in the USA and Switzerland, and environmental cleanup at federal facilities. He has 32 years of experience learning from leaders in many fields of energy, environment, climate change, and government administration in energy and climate related fields.
His website: allaboutenergy.net is dedicated to global public education about these topics. Input for this website comes from over 1,500 experts and critics.
Contact him at john.shanahan@allaboutenergy.net.
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