Alliance for Responsible Citizenship - Unplugged - Great Youth by John A. Shanahan

See source links: arcforum.com, robertbryce.com, allaboutenergy.net

Alliance For Responsible Citizenship Powering the Unplugged - Outstanding Youth Jordan Peterson, Michael Shellenberger, Robert Bryce, John Shanahan October 22, 2023 Hello friends of the website allaboutenergy.net, friends of reliable, plentiful energy from fossil fuels and nuclear power for a peaceful modern world and to help billions of less well-off people have a better life, and friends of the environment and protecting wildlife habitat! The email below is from American energy expert Robert Bryce. It is an announcement for the inaugural conference of a new organization: Alliance for Responsible Citizenship. The inaugural conference will be in London on October 30, 2023. It is sold out! Check out their Board of Advisors. Outstanding. U.S. Climate Ambassador, John Forbes Kerry and arch anti-fossil fuels activist and billionaire, Michael Bloomberg are not on this board. But Jordan Peterson and Michael Shellenberger are! Canadian, Dr. Jordan Peterson is a psychologist expert (Harvard, U. of Toronto) serving ordinary people and principals of what world governments should be. He does not promote alarmist leaders. Michael Shellenberger is one of the most realistic and accomplished Democrat turned Independent (?) spokespersons in the USA. He has lived most of his life in Berkeley, California! Version 231023c

The tremendous team of leaders at the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship will do a lot of good for 7 plus billion ordinary people, for the environment, for wildlife and wildlife habitat. This is the opposite of what the leaders and organizations do who insist that the world panic because of their claims of catastrophic man-made global warming and man-made sea level rise supposedly from man-made carbon dioxide. These alarmists are worse than the Nazis, the Inquisition, the Klu Klux Klan, etc. See Alliance for Responsible Citizenship (ARC) website. The Alliance for Responsible Citizenship (ARC) is an international community with a vision for a better world where everey citizen can prosper, contribute and flourish. See Alliance for Responsible Citizenship (ARC) Statement of Vision. Climate change alarmists insist that the world follow them to Green Wind and Solar Energy oblivion. Those people and institutions include the World Economic Forum, the United Nations, and many past and present elected officials of European countries, Australia, Canada, and the USA. Robert Bryce's entire report, "Powering The Unplugged" is available to read and download here. How can everyone decide that carbon dioxide from the use of fossil fuels is not causing catastrophic global warming and sea level rise? I am not a physicist specializing in incoming radiation from the sun and infrared radiation leaving Earth to the emptiness of space. These scientists are the experts studying the energy in the atmosphere, on land, and in the oceans. They explain the physics of CO2 and H2O gases and the interaction of infrared radiation with these gases as it escapes to space. As a civil engineer, outdoors enthusiast, world traveler and tornado expert for design of nuclear power plants, weather and hence climate to me are the thermal and kinetic energy manifested in the atmosphere and oceans, and Version 231023c

the health of all plants, animals, birds, and marine life. Here is a single photograph I took in October 2023 in Branford, Connecticut, USA. It is a small park on a dead end street in a middleincome neighborhood overlooking the Atlantic Ocean.

A small park overlooking the Atlantic Ocean in Branford, Connecticut, USA October 2023 The American flag represents what the United States of America can be, what the Founding Fathers designed the Declaration of Independence, Constitution, and Bill of Rights to be and risked their lives and fortunes defending in the Revolutionary War. This flag does not represent what much of America and its government has been in recent years. How is this photo proof that carbon dioxide from use of fossil fuels is not a pollutant causing catastrophic global warming, climate change, climate disruption (all terms used or coined by John Holdren, Science Advisor to President Barack Obama)? The lush flowers, plants, bushes, trees in this picture and across Connecticut have been thriving during my 82 years of life and for Version 231023c

thousands of years before that. The ocean has been gracing the shores of Connecticut since the first Europeans came to North America and for 10,000 years of the Interglacial Warm Period up to today. Everyone can see that there is no catastrophic man-made sea level rise from additional atmospheric carbon dioxide from the use of fossil fuels. Physicists studying the radiation of sunlight arriving at the planet and infrared energy leaving it explain that most of the warming caused by atmospheric CO2 and water vapor is caused by the first 300 ppm or so of these molecules in the atmosphere. It is like painting a grey barn red. Most of the red color is put on with the first coat. Additional coats don't make it much redder. The same thing happens with blocking light from a flashlight. The first piece of paper in front of the flashlight blocks a lot of light, the second piece a little bit more,and so forth. Fossil fuels made the wonderful modern world possible in countless ways. They eleminated the most tedious work for everyone. They eliminated a lot of forms of slavery, enabled people and goods to move around easily locally and transcontinentally. They power mining and heavy industries, they make highways, bridges, railroads and airports. They make internal combustion engine and electric cars, cargo and cruise ships, trains and planes. They make homes, apartment buildings, office skyscrapers, modern schools and universities. They make the Internet and “really” smart phones that enable nearly everyone to communicate and learn. They make possible modern agriculture, food processing and timely transport to market. They make possible modern medicine – equipment, testing and pharmaceuticals. They build nuclear power plants. Wind turbines and solar photovoltaic panels need fossil fuels to produce these albatrosses and to dismantel and decommission them. They only produce variable electricity when the wind is blowing and the sun is shining. Many people say that is good enough. It isn’t. Not by any stretch of the imagination!

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Dictators, tyrants, and "devils" misuse fossil fuels to manufacture ammunition, bombs, tanks, artillery, ships, and planes to rage global wars, regional genocide local terror. National, state and city officials create extreme policies to deny billions of middle class and poor people the tremendous benefits of plentiful, reliable energy from fossil fuels and nuclear power. The American flag, flying so beautifully in the photo above, can symboliz the freedom and prosperity that most people in the world want. Don't let tyrants and self-proclaimed leaders in Europe and North America assume power over wonderful ordinary people around the world! ================================================

Seven examples of outstanding younger people from Asia, Africa, Latin America and North America making a better world 1) Florencia de Los Angeles Renteria Del Toro B.Sc. Chemical Engineering, Mexico. M.Sc. Nuclear Engineering, South Korea, Ph.D. Nuclear Engineering, China. World ambassador and technical advisor for advanced nuclear power, production of radioisotopes for nuclear medicine and many other applications, consultant on how important nuclear power is for the long-term future.

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2) Heather Hoff B.Sc. Environmental Science Co-Founder, Mothers for Nuclear Lifelong environmentalist and nuclear power plant operator at Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant.

Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant, California, USA Nuclear power is the world’s most environmentally friendly energy source.

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3) Kristin Zaitz B.Sc. Civil Engineering Co-Founder, Mothers for Nuclear Lifelong environmentalist and technical staff at Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant.

4) Vijay Jayaraj M.Sc. Environmental Science, UK Author, analyst and government policy expert on energy and the environment publishing for organizations in India, the USA and Europe.

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5) Joseph Samoura Founder of Destiny Center for Destitute, DCD,and Destiny English Academy, DEA Guinea, Africa

Joseph Samoura provides a loving community and good education for homeless and very poor youth in Guinea. His efforts can be duplicated everywhere. Joseph Kerwin and John Shanahan have supported Joseph Samoura and his organizations for five years. Now Joseph Samoura and his staff desperately need to buy property and build an orphanage and school they can own and have control over. In the last year they were thrown off the property and buildings they were renting because of disputes among the owners.

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6) Ezekiel Ole Katato A Maasai Elder leading his people to modern water management during extreme periods of multi-year droughts. Educating the Maasai about living in harmony with wildlife - mostly elephants that can be dangerous when they enter villages in search for water. People and nature living in harmony the way it is intended to be. Ole is an example of clear thinking and planning for his people and wildlife protection and management. He is also an eloquent speaker.

Ezekiel Ole Katato – younger

Ezekiel Ole Katato today, a Maasai Elder

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Painting of an elephant on a Maasai cow showing the Maasai, their livestock and wild elephants living in harmony and working to survive natural water cycles. This example could be duplicated around the world.

7) Albert Rutikanga Executive Director at Peace Education Initiative Rwanda. Preventing genocide and mass atrocities through eduction, providing skill and human rigts in order to build a sustainable peace. Worked at Educators Institute for Human Rights.

Youth affiliated with Peace Education Initiative Rwanda visited the Kigali Genocide Memorial and pledged to fight hatred and violence. Many Rwandans were born after the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsis. They did not witness the atrocities that took place during that time. Peace Eduction Initiative Rwanda focuses on teaching young Rwandans human rights, genocide studies, peace education and tolerance to build a peaceful future and empower them with critical thinking and positive values. Version 231023c

Powering The Unplugged Robert Bryce October 21, 2023

Here's the first section of a new paper on electrification in developing countries that I wrote for the Alliance For Responsible Citizenship. I’m pleased to announce that the Alliance For Responsible Citizenship published my new paper on how to bring more electricity to developing countries. It’s called “Powering The Unplugged: Overcoming the Barriers to Electrification in the Developing World.” On October 30, I will be in London attending the inaugural conference of the ARC to present my paper and moderate a pair of panels on energy. (The conference is sold out.)

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The ARC, created by Jordan Peterson, Dan Crenshaw, Bjorn Lomborg, Philippa Stroud, Arthur Brooks, Alan McCormick, Michael Shellenberger, and several others, is “an international community with a vision for a better world where every citizen can prosper, contribute and flourish. We are inviting you to join us in developing a better narrative in response to life’s most fundamental social, economic, philosophical and cultural questions. We reject the inevitability of decline and instead are seeking solutions which draw on humanity’s highest virtues and extraordinary capacity for innovation and ingenuity.” In April, the ARC commissioned me to write a paper on the challenge of bringing more electricity to developing countries. It’s an issue I have been writing about for many years. It’s a focal point of my first documentary, Juice: How Electricity Explains The World (which was directed by my friend and colleague, Tyson Culver.) It’s also a theme of my sixth book, A Question of Power: Electricity and the Wealth of Nations. I’m proud of the paper and am pleased to publish the first section of it here on Substack. If you want to read the entire report, it’s available here. I will be publishing additional sections over the next few days. Now to “Powering The Unplugged”: Introduction Electricity is the world’s most important and fastest-growing form of energy. It is also the most difficult form of energy to supply reliably. Many of the world’s most pressing challenges are tied directly to Version 231023c

electricity, including carbon dioxide emissions, women’s rights, and poverty reduction. The electricity sector matters to climate change efforts because it is the single biggest source of global CO2 emissions. Electricity matters because it is one of the world’s biggest industries. Global electricity sales exceed $4.5 trillion per year.That means that the electricity sector generates more revenue per year than global automobile manufacturing, which generated about $3 trillion in 2022. Furthermore, electricity-related investment is the biggest portion of global energy spending. This year, the International Energy Agency (“IEA”) expects that global spending on the power sector, including investment in renewables, nuclear, hydrocarbons, grids, and batteries, will total $1.2 trillion. By comparison, spending on hydrocarbons— coal, oil, and natural gas—will total about $950 billion. Electricity matters because it is the ultimate poverty killer. No matter where you look, as electricity use has increased, so has economic growth. Having electricity does not guarantee wealth. But its absence almost always means poverty. Indeed, electricity and economic growth go hand in hand. Electricity spurs economic activity, and economic growth spurs electricity use. Westerners take electricity for granted. But nearly everything we touch—almost everything we read, eat, or wear— has in one way or another been electrified. Policymakers must have a laser-like focus on electricity because hundreds of millions of people in developing countries, including Pakistan, South Africa, and Bangladesh, are suffering from increasing numbers of blackouts and shortages. Even energy-rich countries like Iraq are experiencing regular blackouts. Amidst this backdrop, global power demand is booming. Urbanization, economic growth, population growth, electric vehicles, and soaring use of air conditioning in countries like India—where air conditioner sales are growing by nearly 8% per year—are all fuelling the need for more electricity.

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How much more power generation capacity will the world need? Over the past four decades, global electricity production doubled every 20 to 25 years. If that trend continues, global generation capacity will increase from roughly 7 terawatts today to about 14 terawatts by 2050. To put that in perspective, the United States now has approximately 1.1 terawatts of generation capacity. Thus, over the next 25 years, the world’s countries will have to add generators, poles, wires, and electricity meters roughly equal to six grids the size of the existing American grid. That is an enormous challenge. Further, it will require using all of the fuels we have available. Over the past two decades, climate activists and policymakers, particularly ones based in Europe and North America, have repeatedly claimed that the world economy can run solely on weather-dependent renewables. Investors have responded by pumping enormous amounts of capital into wind and solar projects. According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, between 2004 and 2021, some $3.7 trillion was spent on wind and solar. Despite that staggering investment, by the end of 2021, those two forms of electricity production were only producing about 10% of global electricity (see Figure 6). Numerous factors are constraining the growth of wind and solar, including land-use conflicts. As shown in the Renewable Rejection Database, local communities across the United States are fighting the encroachment of large wind and solar projects. Since 2015, there have been more than 400 rejections or restrictions of wind projects and more than 170 rejections or restrictions of solar projects. Similar landuse conflicts can be seen across Europe, as well as in Israel and Australia. In addition, the lack of high-voltage transmission capacity is hampering weather-dependent renewable projects. That capacity is necessary to move electricity from rural areas with the best wind and solar resources to urban areas where electricity demand is highest.

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Although wind and solar are getting enormous subsidies and have staunch political support, the hard facts show that the global electricity sector continues to rely heavily on the incumbent sources— hydrocarbons, hydropower, and nuclear—which together provided about 87% of the world’s electricity in 2021. Given these facts, policymakers must regard the electric sector as a critical part of the economy and focus on measures that help ensure their electricity grids can supply affordable, reliable, and resilient power to their people, factories, and water treatment plants. Furthermore, they should focus on electrification first. Concerns about decarbonisation should come second. Before addressing how to bring more power to the unplugged, we must understand the importance of electricity and the enormous disparity between the electricity rich and the electricity poor. Mind The (Power) Gap Electricity is an essential driver of economic growth. That is true in developing countries and advanced economies alike. In 2020, the IEA published two charts that demonstrated the close correlation between electricity demand growth and gross domestic product growth. As seen in the two graphics below, electricity use and GDP rise and fall in a close tango. (Note: the dark blue line is electricity demand growth. The light blue line is GDP growth, and the dashed lines are estimates.)

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Figure 1

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Figure 2

The transformative power of electricity has been the subject of numerous academic papers. In 2010, two academics at the University of Karachi published a paper that examined the “causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth” in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. The analysis studied data between 1971 and 2008. While the analysis did not focus specifically on electricity, the conclusion of the authors, Kashif Imran and Masood Mashkoor Siddiqui, was clear: “Energy serves as an engine of economic growth and economic activity will be affected in the result of changes in energy consumption…GDP is basically determined by energy.” In 2014, two Turkish researchers, Yilmaz Bayar, and Hasan Alp Ozel, analyzed about two dozen published papers on electricity and economic growth. They found “unidirectional causality between electricity consumption and Version 231023c

economic growth.” While electricity drives economic growth, it is also clear that greater wealth increases electricity consumption. Energy writer Roger Andrews spotlighted this bi-directional effect of wealth and electrification in a 2015 study in which he concluded that in developing countries, “wealth creates electricity and not the other way round. There is no question, however, that once a country gains wealth it cannot sustain it without electricity. When the electricity disappears, the wealth goes with it.” Another way to understand the correlation between electricity use and wealth is to look at nighttime luminosity—that is, the amount of light emitted by a region at night. In 2010, William Nordhaus, an economist at Yale University, published a paper that determined nighttime luminosity—measured by using images captured by satellites orbiting the Earth—has a close correlation with personal incomes. Nordhaus, who won the 2018 Nobel Prize in Economics, determined that luminosity is not particularly effective for analysing wealthy countries. But it is useful in analysing wealth in developing countries where traditional statistical information is not readily available. In 2012, three researchers from the National Bureau of Economic Research used a similar technique in their paper titled, “Measuring Economic Growth From Outer Space.” That paper concluded that nighttime luminosity provides “a very useful proxy for GDP growth over the long term and also tracks short-term fluctuations in growth.” The punchline here is obvious: increased electricity use fosters economic growth, which, in turn, means better living conditions for humans. Electricity use also provides a reliable barometer for the health and wealth of individuals and societies. The IEA has called electricity “crucial to human development” and has said that electricity use is “one of the most clear and undistorted indications of a country’s energy poverty status.” Put another way, electricity bolsters economic growth Version 231023c

and economic growth bolsters electricity demand. Together, those things help people escape poverty. As Paul Collier, the author of The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What Can Be Done About It, famously put it, “Growth is not a cure-all, but lack of growth is a kill-all.” While people in the United States and other wealthy countries have come to expect cheap, abundant, reliable electricity as a birthright, the IEA recently estimated that about 800 million people still have no access to electricity. But that figure does not account for the billions of people who only use small quantities of power. Nor does it provide context for the challenge facing policymakers. To get a better focus on the vast disparity in global electricity use, I needed good figures for per capita electricity use. Finding no recent sources, I devised a method to get those numbers. My methodology was simple. I used country-level 2021 population numbers published by Our World in Data. I combined the population data with 2021 electricity generation figures from the same source. I then trifurcated the global population into three segments: the Unplugged World, the Low-Watt World, and the High-Watt World. I did so using these demarcations: ● The “Unplugged” countries, where per capita electricity use is less than 1,200 kilowatt-hours per year. ● The “Low-Watt” countries, where per capita electricity use is between 1,200 and 4,000 kilowatt-hours per year. ● The “High-Watt” countries, where per capita electricity use exceeds 4,000 kilowatt-hours per year.

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Figure 3

Those demarcations were chosen on purpose. The 1,200 kilowatt-hourper-year was used as the cutoff for the Unplugged World because that is the average electricity consumption level in India, a country that has long been plagued by energy poverty. Although India has made great strides in recent years, the country still struggles to increase electricity availability and consumption. To put that quantity in perspective, 1,200 kilowatt-hours of use per person is about one-third of the global average. It is also about the same amount of energy as what is used annually by a large kitchen Version 231023c

refrigerator in the United States. As seen in the graphic above, about 3.7 billion people—about 47% of all the people on the planet—are now living in the Unplugged World. The Unplugged countries include El Salvador, the Philippines, and Bolivia. Figure 4

Further, as shown in Figure 4, three of the world’s most populous countries are in the Unplugged World. Together, Pakistan, Indonesia, and India contain about 1.9 billion people. That means that about 24% of the world’s population is, effectively, Unplugged. In those three countries, per capita electricity use is far less than one-third of the

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global average of 3,500 kilowatt-hours per year. The Low-Watt designation applies to the locales where per capita annual electricity use is between 1,200 kilowatt-hours and 4,000 kilowatt-hours. About 1.3 billion people—approximately 16% of the world’s population—are living in the Low-Watt World. The countries in this segment include places like Brazil, Argentina, and Turkey. These locales are not necessarily poor, but they are not among the wealthiest. Finally, about 2.9 billion people, or 37% of the world’s population, live in the High-Watt World, the segment where per capita electricity use is 4,000 kilowatt-hours or more, per year. The countries in this segment include the United States, Britain, Germany, and Israel. Four thousand kilowatt-hours of electricity use per annum is a key demarcation line because that quantity of energy is considered the minimum for living a long, high-quality life. In 2000, Alan D. Pasternak, a chemical engineer who worked at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, published a paper that analysed per capita electricity consumption in 60 countries and then correlated that electricity use with indicators of human health and welfare. Using data from the United Nations Human Development Index (“HDI”), which ranks countries based on measures like life expectancy, nutrition, health, mortality, poverty, education, and access to safe water and sanitation, Pasternak calculated a score for each country, with 1.0 being the maximum. Pasternak found that less than 15% of the world’s population enjoyed an HDI of 0.9 or greater. Further, Pasternak wrote that “there is a threshold at about 4,000 kilowatt-hours per capita, corresponding to an HDI of 0.9 or greater, in the relationship between HDI and electricity consumption.” In other words, Pasternak (who died in 2010) found that the 4,000 kilowatt-hours mark was the key dividing line.

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“As electricity consumption increases above 4,000 kilowatt-hours, no significant increase in HDI is observed,” he wrote. Conversely, he found that the lower the electricity consumption, the lower the HDI. In a summary of his findings, Pasternak was blunt, saying that neither the HDI nor the economic output “of developing countries will increase without an increase in electricity use.” Pasternak continued, “What is of interest is the fact that large populations of the world are significantly below the electricity threshold level associated with a Human Development Index typical of developed countries.” Those low rankings, he continued, “reflect short life expectancy and low educational attainment—measures that are far more compelling than the purely economic metrics usually associated with energy consumption.” Therefore, he said, “there is a compelling need for increased energy and electricity supplies in developing countries.” The essential point of Pasternak’s paper is this: small amounts of electricity are not effective at alleviating poverty. Sure, small amounts of power are better than nothing. But Pasternak’s paper shows that if the world’s poverty-stricken people are going to come out of the dark and into modernity, we are going to need vastly more electricity than what is now being produced. Why is there such a vast disparity in electricity use around the world? There are many ways to explain the reasons for the disparity. Before doing so, it is essential to understand who suffers the most due to the lack of electricity. I also made a short video about the paper. It’s on the ARC’s YouTube channel:

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Share Please subscribe, share, and by all means, click that ♡ button. 1. Need a speaker for an upcoming event? Email me: robert (at) robertbryce.com 2. Check out the Power Hungry Podcast. My latest guest: Jimmy Glotfelty, a commissioner at the Texas Public Utility Commission, talking nuclear energy in Texas. 3. Finally, I was on the Rio Grande Foundation podcast, with my friend, Paul Gessing, talking about EV mandates. Check it out.

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