NET ZERO IS A "SUICIDE PACT"*** Thorpe Watson October 27, 2023 There are many existential threats today but human-induced climate change is not one of them, in spite of what Western leaders and the mainstream media keep telling us. Are carbon emissions really causing a climate crisis and must we embrace the net-zero agenda to avoid a climate catastrophe? The net-zero agenda is based on two assumptions: 1. Carbon dioxide (aka "carbon emission", "CO2") is a major climate-control variable; and 2. Our carbon emissions are a significant contributor to the total CO2 content of the atmosphere. Members of the scientific community are still struggling to fully understand the scientific complexities of CO2-induced climate change (Assumption #1). However, the second assumption offers a simpler approach to obtain compelling evidence discrediting the net-zero agenda. This approach involves an awareness of the planet's inventory of carbon in fossil fuels (coal, oil, & natural gas) and an understanding of the mechanisms by which oceans store most of the planet's bio-available CO2. Such an understanding reveals that our emissions have an insignificant impact on the total CO2 content of the atmosphere. Accordingly, our carbon emissions will not cause a climate crisis. To advance this understanding, it is desirable to consider a hypothetical biosphere devoid of water. Such a dry Earth would have an atmosphere identical to Earth's current atmosphere containing 750 PgC of CO2 (420
1
ppm). Furthermore, let us assume a stagnant atmosphere; that is, one without storms and a jet stream. Prior to an emission of new CO2 molecules, the distance between natural CO2 molecules in the atmosphere is determined by gravitational and intermolecular-repulsive forces. With the introduction of new molecules, we will observe a transitory decrease in the intermolecular distances (i.e. an increase in CO2's partial pressure) in the vicinity of the emission zone. However, the enhanced partial pressure in the emission zone will decrease as the intermolecular distances adjacent to the emission zone decrease. This equilibration adjustment will rapidly take place throughout the whole system without the new molecules having to move far from the emission zone. In other words, the partial pressure of the system will have increased but by an amount considerably less than the initial peak increase in the emission zone. Let us now introduce the oceans having a CO2 content that existed prior to the introduction of new molecules. The enhanced partial pressure will trigger a redistribution of CO2 molecules between the atmosphere and oceans in accordance with Henry's Law. Consequently, the partial pressure of CO2 in the atmosphere will decrease by reversing the mechanism described above. In this hypothetical system, the new molecules in the stagnant air over land will not as yet have played a role in the redistribution process with the oceans. With so much emphasis being placed on the "residence time" of the new molecules, this hypothetical system demonstrates that the new molecules need not play a direct role in determining the total CO2 content of the atmosphere. Although the residence time has been estimated to be about 5 years, it is still irrelevant in calculating our contribution to the increasing CO2 content 2
of the atmosphere. Residence time is a function of wind direction and the proximity of water to the emission site. It is not the time to restore equilibrium conditions! Nevertheless, Henry's Law alone fails to explain the 50/1 ratio of CO2 in the oceans to that in the atmosphere (see "Carbon Cycle" figure below). If all of the CO2 in the oceans were stored as molecular CO2, then the CO2 content of the atmosphere would have to be much larger. Fortunately, a paper by Bromley & Tamarkin (May 4, 2022) provides the explanation. Pinatubo Study Report This paper identifies not only the atmosphere/ocean phase-equilibrium system governed by Henry's Law but also phase-equilibrium sub-systems in the oceans involving the ions of CO2. Consequently, only a small portion of the CO2 content of the oceans is directly involved in the air/ocean flux governed by Henry's Law. Based on the foregoing, the annual addition to the atmosphere of 9.3 petagrams of contained carbon (PgC) as CO2 from fossil fuels will result in a 0.18 PgC increase of atmospheric CO2, thereby maintaining the 50/1 ratio in accordance with Henry's Law. Consistent with the observed increased greening of the planet, an increase in photosynthesis of only 0.15% (120 PgC x 0.0015 = 0.18 PgC) is sufficient to negate this increase. Climate activists, who have ignored Henry's Law and the increased greening of the planet, have claimed that all fossil-fuel emissions add to the total CO2 content of the atmosphere. As a result, an annual 9.3 PgC addition would have increased the atmospheric CO2 level by 5.2 parts per million (ppm) per year. However, the observed rate of increase according to the NOAA website is only 2.25 ppm per year. Anyone lacking in an understanding of basic phase3
equilibrium principles would logically ask: Where is the missing (57%) CO2? This has led to the mistaken belief that fossil-fuel emissions are responsible for about 50% of the increased CO2 content of the atmosphere. In reality, fossil-fuel emissions are responsible for a CO2 increase of 0.1 ppm per year if we ignore the increased greening of the planet (0.18 x 420/750 = 0.1 ppm or 4.4% of the increase). It is interesting to note that fossil-fuel emissions are 4.3% of total emissions, natural and man-made. Therefore, most of the increase in atmospheric CO2 can be attributed to a redistribution of CO2 between the oceans and atmosphere, primarily as a result of changing ocean temperatures. Also, the time to restore equilibrium conditions appears to occur quite rapidly for an additional 5.2 ppm of CO2; that is, less than 6 months as indicated by the slope of the recovery portion of the Keeling curve (12 ppm per year) on the NOAA website. Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases (noaa.gov) Much of the climate fear mongering is based on a climate-model prediction of a 1.5C temperature increase for a doubling of atmospheric CO2. According to the diagram below, an optimistic estimate of the planet's carbon reserves is 10,000 PgC while the store of bio-available CO2 is 38,750 PgC (Air 750 PgC + Oceans 37,275 + 725 PgC). Since the oceans are far from being saturated with CO2, the enhancement of the bio-available CO2 store (38,750 PgC) with CO2 generated from the carbon reserves would result in a 26% increase in the CO2 content of each phase. This would add 108 ppm to the current level of atmospheric CO2 of 420 ppm; that is, for a total of 528 ppm, which is well below the desirable level of at least 1,000 ppm for plant growth. Using the climate model prediction of 1.5C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2, which is a gross exaggeration, the model predicts a temperature increase of 0.4C over a thousand years at current consumption rates, or 0.0004C per year. Therefore, the UN/IPCC's own questionable numbers 4
prove that climate fear mongering is a hoax. Although a CO2-induced climate crisis is not possible, there is a potential CO2-deficit crisis that could become a reality. The graph below reveals that natural sequestration is reducing the store of bio-available CO2 to a level approaching the threshold level for plant growth. Unless we stop the war on CO2, a human-induced Armageddon will become a reality by destroying all plant and animal life. We can start by condemning all carbon-capture facilities and any research to discover methods of accelerating the natural sequestration of CO2 in the oceans. The net-zero agenda must be denounced to avoid not only a future threat to life but also the immediate threat of a policy-induced collapse of Western Civilization. It is not hyperbole when Dr. Patrick Moore***, co-founder of Greenpeace, exposes the net-zero agenda as a "suicide pact".
5
Carbon Cycle - GLOBE.gov
6