What happens if we double the CO2 content of the air/ocean store from 40,000 GtC to 80,000 GtC? Russ Babcock October 31, 2023 This article is a reply to an article by Thorpe Watson, Net Zero Is A “Suicide Pact”*** The "system" is far more complex than a 2-part gas phase / liquid phase system, where the ideal gas law could neatly describe it at any moment. Contrarily, there are MANY subsystems that include VERY MANY variables. These variables differ both qualitatively and quantitatively not only within the subsystems, but even more-so from subsystem to subsystem. These subsystems sometimes have sharp boundaries, and sometimes have extremely gradual boundaries. Without doubt the entirety of the overall system is NEVER at equilibrium, even though Nature's laws have the overall system in constant pursuit of equilibrium. So your question is not possible to answer without knowing all the circumstances surrounding the doubling of the ocean CO2 content. How much time are you giving the system to attain equilibrium? What variables are being held constant, and what variables are changing, and by how much? Let's look at a scenario that can explain how a doubling of CO2 in the air/ocean store might have already happened (a VERY long time ago). When volcanoes and crashing tectonic plates were far more prevalent, I can imagine that CO2 in the air/ocean system could double (and more). But that certainly wouldn't be the ONLY variable changing. The heat capacity of the oceans is magnitudes greater than that of the atmosphere, so I could easily surmise that oceans could be several degrees warmer in the 1
aftermath of such cataclysmic events than they are now (obviously before the various ice ages), while the atmosphere would probably be even cooler than they are now, without the benefit of surface-impacting sunlight. .That would mean that the oceans would be outgassing as they were warming up, progressing not to a 98/2 liquid/atmosphere CO2 distribution endpoint, but maybe to 90/10 endpoint. I'm not doing the math. I'm just trying to make the point. That would be a quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 content and much less than a doubling of ocean CO2 content, even if we include ALL the species of dissolved CO2 (H2CO3, HCO3-, CO2, CO3=). We can never underestimate the elegance and beauty of the laws of Nature, and how they manage to keep Earth so very livable for so very long, and often (as now), in spite of ourselves. We DO KNOW however, that Earth was very livable in periods of much higher atmospheric CO2 levels than it is now. Given the wisdom of Mother Nature, that should NOT surprise us. Sometimes, we just have to accept things as Nature designed them.
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