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COP28 And Fossil Fuels: Showdown Between Alarmists And Pragmatists Tilak DoshiContributor I analyze energy economics and related public policy issues. December 8, 2023
COP28 CARTOONS BY JOSH.COM Just over two years ago, on the occasion of COP26 (the annual “Conference of Parties” of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change) held in Glasgow, I wrote about the carbon imperialism that the representatives of
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the US, EU and their developed country allies want to impose on the governments of the Global South representing over 80% of the world’s population. The speeches by Western leaders at COP26 (here, here, and here) could be fairly paraphrased as follows: You must give up fossil fuels or else the planet, with all of us in it, is doomed. We pledge money to help you. There is more, we promise. And new energy technologies are available to achieve our goals of decarbonization and net zero by 2050. Indeed, with solar and wind power, electric vehicles, green hydrogen and carbon capture and sequestration, the opportunities for new jobs and economic growth are bright. But stop new coal power plants right now, and oil and gas as soon as possible. We are all in this together. Two years later, at COP28 now in session in Dubai, the message from Western leaders demonizing fossil fuels hasn’t changed. What has changed however is the pointed responses in opposition by government representatives outside the climate-evangelical Western group of countries intent on weaning the world off fossil fuels. If the showdown between developed and developing countries was looming over the past several years of international climate negotiations, it has come to a head in COP28. As in previous COPs, we will see grand-sounding communiques regarding policy “commitments” and emission targets by member states at the conclusion of the Dubai summit. But those tracking actual implementation of various plans in the coming months and years will likely be disappointed. The Alarmists Make Their Case… In an interview with AFP prior to the commencement of the conference last week, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for a total “phaseout” of fossil fuels. Never one to shy from hyperbole, he warned of a "complete disaster" which awaits mankind on its current trajectory. In his speech to the Dubai conference, he said that “we cannot save a burning planet with a firehose of fossil fuels. We must accelerate a just, equitable transition to renewables. The science is clear: The 1.5-degree limit is only possible if we ultimately stop burning all fossil fuels. Not reduce. Not abate. 2
Phaseout – with a clear timeframe aligned with 1.5 degrees.” He told COP28 delegates “We are living through climate collapse in real time.” Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, stated in launching a well-publicized 2021 report, “If governments are serious about the climate crisis, there can be no new investments in oil, gas, and coal, from now—from this year.” In another report, released just prior to the Dubai conference, Mr. Birol states “The industry therefore faces a choice – a moment of truth – over its engagement with clean energy transitions. So far, its engagement has been minimal: less than 1% of global clean energy investment comes from oil and gas companies… Every part of the industry needs to respond.” According to the report, the oil and gas sector — a major emitter of greenhouse gases — will need to rapidly end business as usual for the world to avoid even worse extreme weather events fueled by human-caused climate change. Another global leader in attendance at COP28 who is at home with dire, over-the-top predictions of the world’s climate future is John Kerry, the U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate. At a pre-conference briefing, he prefaced his remarks as follows: “Needless to say, because of what Mother Nature has been screaming at us about over the past year particularly with the losses and damages and amazing impacts around the world, I think people all over the world have high hopes for this COP, as I do.” Forbes Daily: Get our best stories, exclusive reporting and essential analysis of the day’s news in your inbox every weekday. …And The Pragmatists React In my previous articles on COP26 and COP27, I spoke about a “looming showdown” between representatives of the developed Western countries and those of the Global South, that is the less-developed countries of the world in Africa, Latin America, Asia and the Middle East. If it has been “looming” over the past several UN climate summits, it arrived most emphatically at COP28. Perhaps that was inevitable given the location of
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the summit in Dubai, at the heart of the world’s most prolific oil and gas producing region. Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, the president of the COP28 climate summit and CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, said pointedly in response to questions from Mary Robinson, a former UN special envoy for climate change: “There is no science out there, or no scenario out there, that says that the phaseout of fossil fuel is what’s going to achieve 1.5C.” He further said off-camera in an interview that “You’re asking for a phase-out of fossil fuels…Please, help me, show me for a phase-out of fossil fuel that will allow for sustainable socio-economic development, unless you want to take the world back into caves.” The remarks from Al Jaber were amplified by Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman who told Bloomberg that the world's biggest oil exporter would not agree with Western demands to phaseout fossil fuels. "Absolutely not," he said in an interview in Riyadh, "And I assure you not a single person — I'm talking about governments — believes in that…If they believe that this is the highest moral ground issue, fantastic. Let them do that themselves. And we will see how much they can deliver." The face-off between leading representatives from the US and EU intent on “phasing out” the use of fossil fuels worldwide and two of the Middle East’s leading oil men who disagree is indicative of the inherent tensions between developed and developing countries. The position of India’s Power Minister R. K. Singh, representing the world’s third largest energy consumer, is unequivocal. He stated on November 6th “There is going to be pressure on nations at COP-28 to reduce coal usage. We are not going to do this... we are not going to compromise on availability of power for our growth, even if it requires that we add coal-based capacity”. This insistence on affordable coal-based power for economic growth is not unique to India. Other large developing countries such as China, Indonesia, South Africa and Vietnam all have similar plans to ramp up coal power plant construction despite policy “promises” to curtail fossil fuels made at the UN climate forums since the “Paris Agreement” of 2015. 4
Notwithstanding the “net zero by 2050” mantra ceaselessly trumpeted in by Western leaders at climate negotiations, the insistence that poorer countries reduce their “carbon footprint” to “save the planet” is bound to be disappointing. What “The Science” Says Predictably, the legacy media cast the showdown between the developed and developing countries at COP28 as a question of “settled science” versus the oil-producing countries. One headline in a major UK daily put it this way: “Revealed: Saudi Arabia’s grand plan to ‘hook’ poor countries on oil.” According to the article, “Climate scientists say fossil fuel use needs to fall rapidly – but the oil-rich kingdom is working to drive up demand.” Another large circulation daily, this time in the U.S., led its assessment of COP28 as follows: “It’s Big Oil vs. Science at the U.N. Climate Summit”. COP28 President Al Jaber boldly questioned the so-called ‘scientific consensus’ on the need to phase out fossil fuels to achieve the 1.5°C climate goal, itself an arbitrary target. Dr. Al Jaber is not without scientifically reputable company despite the adverse coverage he has garnered in the mainstream media. John F. Clauser, awarded the 2022 Nobel Prize in Physics, criticized the climate emergency narrative calling it: “a dangerous corruption of science that threatens the world’s economy and the well-being of billions of people…Misguided climate science has metastasized into massive shock-journalistic pseudoscience…In my opinion, there is no real climate crisis. There is, however, a very real problem with providing a decent standard of living to the world’s expanding population, especially given an associated energy crisis. The latter is being unnecessarily exacerbated by what, in my opinion, is incorrect climate science.” John Clauser is not alone in his opinion of “what the science says” about climate change. Eminently qualified scientists with impeccable credentials do not agree with the views of unelected bureaucrats that take pride of place in COP28 such as António Guterres, Fatih Birol and John Kerry.
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These would include William Happer (Cyrus Fogg Brackett Professor of Physics, emeritus, at Princeton University), Judith Curry (former chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology), Richard Lindzen (former Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Steve Koonin (former Under Secretary for Science, U.S. Department of Energy) and the late Fred Singer (emeritus professor of environmental science at the University of Virginia). Much-maligned fossil fuels will continue to support economic growth and human flourishing. Its use in the developing countries which are not planning to ‘return to caves’ will continue to grow in the decades to come. Despite the heavy-handed efforts by a virtue-signalling West that sees itself as occupying the high moral ground, it is highly unlikely that COP28 will change this outlook in the next several decades. Follow me on Twitter. Tilak Doshi Follow I have worked in the oil and gas sector as an economist in both private industry and in think tanks, in Asia, the Middle East and the US over the past 25 years.
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