Climate, CO2, and Net Zero - GR by John A. Shanahan

Climate, CO2 and Net Zero New technique for Climate research Gerald Ratzer

Professor Emeritus

McGill University, Montreal, Canada

March 2024

Comment on previous slide Background

This slide show is a sequel to another one entitled “The Story of CO2”, written by Douglas Lightfoot. We have collaborated since before the pandemic and co-authored several papers together. This slide set is more technical and explains the scientific process we used. The climate and oceans are very complex environments, considered to be chaotic, cyclical and yet quasi-stable over millions of years. Our research is restricted to the climate on the Earth’s surface, where some 8 billion people live. Our research appears to be novel in that we cannot find any climate material that uses our technique. It is a low-cost solution without using super-computers – yet we think our results are more accurate than the global climate models used by the IPCC. The conclusions combine the benefits of CO2, with our research output to show that Net Zero policy is a pathway to reducing one’s standard of living and should be avoided. © Lightfoot & Ratzer 2024

Overview • Introduction • Scientific Method • Clintel and the World Climate Declaration • There is no Climate Emergency • The Story of CO2 - a separate slide set • Psychrometrics for Climate Research • Why Net Zero is an unnecessary disaster • Conclusions © Lightfoot & Ratzer 2024

Comment on previous slide

The “Story of CO2” is a separate slide set and can be shown if time allows. It covers the benefits of CO2, which the MSM (main stream media) overlook.

Scientific Method - 1 of 2 • Make an observation. • Ask a question, build a model . . . • Form a hypothesis, or testable explanation. • Make a prediction based on the hypothesis. • Test the prediction. • Iterate: use the results to make new hypotheses or predictions. © Lightfoot & Ratzer 2024

Scientific Method - 2 of 2 • Feynman – If the prediction disagrees with observed results – the hypothesis is wrong! • Kelvin – All Science is numbers. • Roger Pielke Jr Only Science offers a path to truth, not surveys of expert opinion.

Comment on previous slide

Mention the Kelvin connection. Kelvinside Academy and Glasgow University. Dis/misinformation are ubiquitous; are the fact checkers biassed? Are there absolute truths – F=ma or E=MC ? 2

The Scientific Method provides a firm pillar for what is true. This should be the standard for all Science. Our research is based on empirical data collection, and the Scientific Method. .

Clintel and the World Climate Declaration • Some 2,000 professionals have been asked to sign the WCD • It is some 8 short paragraphs – here are examples • “CO2 is plant food, the basis of all life on Earth” • “CO2 is not a pollutant. It is essential to all life on Earth. Photosynthesis is a blessing. More CO2 is beneficial for nature, greening the Earth: additional CO2 in the air has promoted growth in global plant biomass. It is also good for agriculture, increasing the yields of crops worldwide.” • “Climate models have many shortcomings and are not remotely plausible as global policy tools. They blow up the effect of greenhouse gases such as CO2. In addition, they ignore the fact that enriching the atmosphere with CO2 is beneficial.” © Lightfoot & Ratzer 2024

Comment on previous slide The WCD (World Climate Declaration) is another pillar of truth, as it is based on observed data and Science. Almost 2,000 professionals have signed the WCD, including two Nobel Prize winners

There is no Climate Emergency Climate deaths fall 98% Lomborg & Epstein

There is no Climate Emergency

Climate deaths from Droughts fall 98% Lomborg & Epstein

There is no Climate Emergency Climate deaths fall 98% Lomborg & Shellenberger

Comment on previous slide “All Science is numbers.” 4.5 million people die from cold. 0.5 million people die from extra heat. The Ratio is 9 to 1.

Deaths from Cold (9 times more than) - Heat

Comment on previous slide Deaths in warm countries too. Why? Standard of living? Not just cold lands like Siberia?? Italy is a warm Mediterranean country – why do so many people there die from cold? Maybe the gap between rich and poor is one reason?

Electrical Energy costs:

Quebec 5 c/kWh UK 44 c/kWh (c = US cents) Statista

Comment on previous slide Poor people in rich countries? There is a wide gap between rich and poor people, in many countries. The UK has a population of 68 million – 2 million are energy poor?

Hurricane Landfalls

No Catastrophic increases

Comment on previous slide The term Hurricane is used in the Atlantic, while in the Pacific they talk about Tropical Cyclones or Typhoons. The chart shows there is no trend between 1950 and the present.

Scientific Method at work . .

John Christy, UAH

Comment on previous slide Here is a test case for the Scientific Method to show the climate models fail validation. The Canadian model shows this heat blob – observations say it is not there .

This is called back testing.

John Christy, UAH

Comment on previous slide The models as a group are running a factor of 2.3 hotter than reality!! The 2 Canadian models are the hottest! Study done by John Christy (UAH) and Ross McKitrick of U of Guelph.

Newer version from Roy Spencer - UAH © Lightfoot & Ratzer 2024

John Christy, UAH

Comment on previous slide The text box shows how the Scientific Method proves that the Climate Models fail validation. The purple line close to the green one is from the Russian Academy of Sciences with a low ECS – Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity. Now show the Story of CO2 slides – if appropriate.

Climate Physics Howard Hayden

Comment on previous slide The next two slides are very technical. They introduce Infra-Red radiation and how the greenhouse gases (GHGs) absorb radiation. The 5525°K red line is the Stefan-Boltzman Black Body model for our Sun, on the left. Earth is at 288°K – blue curve on the RHS. Incoming and outgoing energy must balance. The GHGs in grey, account for a 33°C increase in our surface temperature. The largest GHG is water vapour - WV. Note the overlap between WV and CO2 at 15 µm (microns) overlap between WV and CO2 at 15 µm (microns). Much more at the links above Hayden’s name..

Research output from Wijngaarden and Happer using Hitran data model - 2020

Comment on previous slide This research uses the HITRAN database of 1.5 million spectral lines. These correspond to the way molecules vibrate and rotate, based on photon energy. There maybe a problem with separating H O and CO absorption, due to the overlap, shown in the previous slide. CO is fully saturated, while H O is not. The H O:CO ratio is 100:1 - molecular ratio in the Tropics at the surface. There is a 3 W/m difference for a doubling of CO from 400 to 800 ppm. This is about a 1% warming effect. 2

Comments on our Research methodology – 1 of 4

• Our research is based on collecting the temperature and humidity at 20 locations around the Earth, every month, for a year. These sites were chosen to cover the widest range of different climatic conditions from the poles to the Tropics.

Comments on our Research methodology – 2 of 4

• We assert this surface (2m) data includes all the local physical effects from latitude, elevation, Sun angle, Sun's variability, proximity to oceans and lakes, clouds, UHI, precipitation, wind, any recent volcanic action, as well as the interaction of the 99% non-GHG gases N2(78%), O2(20%), and Ar(1%), as well as the main GHGs of water vapor and CO2 (the remaining ~1%) and their IR interaction. © Lightfoot & Ratzer 2024

Comment on previous slide This slide introduces our research which does not use HITRAN. Surface temperatures are usually measured in a white wooden box with slats – about 2 metres off the ground. This box is called a Stevenson screen. UHI is the Urban Heat Island effect – a strong urban warming effect, causing a 2 to 3 °C difference. Rural readings are more accurate and should be used. The urban areas are about 4% of the land mass. The UAH satellite temperature record is much more accurate, as the UHI is a small effect when seen from space.

Comments on our Research methodology – 3 of 4

• This collected data is entered into an Excel file, which is in the public domain. A computerbased version of the Psychrometric chart is an add-in to the Excel sheet and behaves as any other function. This add-in is called Humidair and has a wider range of capabilities. Both are based on the Ideal Gas Laws – PV = nT (Pressure x Volume α Temperature) © Lightfoot & Ratzer 2024

Comments on our Research methodology – 4 of 4

• Comments on this research methodology are welcome. It appears to be different from what other researchers in the area do.

Comment on previous slide ChatGPT says we are the only people using the Psychrometric chart for climate research!! This is a simple model of moist air, based on the Ideal Gas Law and the Laws of Thermodynamics. The Psychrometric chart was invented in 1904 by Willis Carrier and continues to be used at present. Is our research unique? We would like to hear from others on this methodology, and any limitations it has.

Psychrometric Chart Courtesy of: https://www.flycarpet.net/en/PsyOnline

Humidair – the Excel add-in, has a wider range – e.g. -100C < Temp < 200C. Also, Humidair allows for 21 input combinations and 35 output parameters. © Lightfoot & Ratzer 2024

Comment on previous slide There are many examples of the Psychrometric chart online. The “ flycarpet” version is easy to use and very instructive. Enter two values and get a green marker on the chart. Check the table units. The Humidair Excel add-in program allows for 21 input combinations and 35 calculated output parameters. Humidair can handle a temperature range from -100C to 200C. There is an Appendix with a simple exercise to use and learn about the Psychrometric chart.

Ratio of H2O to CO2 molecules Output of our Research

* Guam

Comment on previous slide The Tropics are 40% of the Earth’s surface but have 73% of the surface humidity. The Water Vapour is 95 times more important than CO !! This is based on the molecular ratio. 2

Show where Guam is located – south of Tokyo, east of Manila, as this is used in some of the other research papers.

Impact of Feedbacks • Feedbacks are often discussed. We believe the temperature and humidity capture all the local feedbacks. • Chatelier’s Principle – states that changes in the temperature, pressure, volume, or concentration of a system will result in predictable and opposing changes in the system to achieve a new equilibrium state. • Happer and Lindzen also address the feedback factors saying they are mainly negative in Nature to have a quasi-stable (yet dynamic) system. • “I think we both agree that the enthalpy of added CO2 is nearly irrelevant to climate.” - Happer © Lightfoot & Ratzer 2024

Comment on previous slide The IPCC reports concentrate on positive feedbacks. We think this is incorrect. Negative feedbacks are supported by many researchers and lead to a semi-stable climate system. Positive feedbacks would lead an amplification and an unstable climate system. This has not been seen over a billion years. The next topic is enthalpy.

Using the Psychrometric Chart for enthalpy • Enthalpy is a pure measure of total heat for a sample – kJ/kg • Choose two locations and get a reading for their temperature and humidity • Finding the difference in enthalpy of gases like water vapour, CO2, methane and nitrous oxide is possible with the psychrometric chart • The recent papers show how the calculation is done for a sample of each gas • For CO2 at 420 ppm the warming effect is calculated to be 0.00496°C • Too small to measure!! Doubling CO2 concentration to 800 ppm - the warming increase is still immeasurably small (~0.01°C)! © Lightfoot & Ratzer 2024

Comment on previous slide Are there other climate effects that the Temperature & Humidity do not capture? We think the enthalpy is a useful parameter to calculate and can be used to compare locations. The chart can give an accuracy of 5 to 6 decimal digits in kJ/kg of dry air. Are the vibrational and rotational energy important? IR energy is absorbed and emitted in quick succession. Does this effect the temperature? The CO IR bands are saturated – so they will not have much extra effect at higher concentrations. 2

Why Net Zero is an unnecessary disaster – 1 of 2

• The EU, Germany and the UK are leading the way to Net Zero. “A pathway for the global energy sector to achieve net zero CO2 emissions by 2050.” • These countries have enshrined in laws reaching Net Zero by 2050.

Why Net Zero is an unnecessary disaster – 2 of 2

• They have among the highest electrical energy rates in the World. • Wind and solar are intermittent, unreliable and expensive. • Wind, solar, nuclear and hydro do not produce any products.

Comment on previous slide What is needed is a full cost/benefit study to justify pros and cons of Net Zero. This must include the new generation of power plants, grid upgrades and storage systems for 2 to 3 months of power. Current storage systems (e.g. batteries, pumped hydro, etc.) cannot be scaled up to provide (residential) power for when the wind does not blow (for weeks at a time) and at night when the Sun does not shine. Nuclear power gets around the intermittency problem.

Why Net Zero is an unnecessary disaster – 1 of 2

• Crude oil, gas and coal are needed by the petrochemical industry. People in the wealthier countries use some 6,000 products – plastics, paints, resins, tires, cars, phones, etc. • Countries are losing their industrial capacity to make steel, to make chemicals, etc. – e.g. BASF, Bayer, DSM. © Lightfoot & Ratzer 2024

Why Net Zero is an unnecessary disaster – 2 of 2

• The farmers and others are revolting at the restrictions. • Many countries and the EU have elections this year. • Many politicians will be losing their positions.

Comment on previous slide DSM is a century-old company - the Dutch State Mines. The EU is beginning to soften its Climate policies, because of the farmers and their roadblock tactics. The Green parties in Europe are having great difficulty promoting Net Zero, because of farmers. The physical realities of intermittent power generation will win out in the long run. Fossil fuels will be used for decades in transport and agriculture as countries transition to nuclear energy.

Conclusions – 1 of 4 • There is no need to reduce CO2 and no need for Net Zero. • Understand the benefits and disadvantages of all sources of energy. A comprehensive cost/benefit study is needed. • The population of the Earth has gone from 1 to 8 billion over the last 200 years, attributed to the transition to coal and oil.

Conclusions – 2 of 4 • People climb out of poverty by having a safe, stable environment (no wars) and inexpensive, reliable electricity. • Burning fossil fuels does generate pollution in the form of soot and toxic gases. There are clean energy technologies to remove most of this pollution (scrubbers and precipitors). © Lightfoot & Ratzer 2024

Comment on previous slide CCS - Carbon Capture and Sequestration is idiotic. The Drax wood pellet power plants in England, have a 43 billion UKL project to do CCS, which will have no measurable impact on CO levels. They want to bury their CO under the North Sea!! The UK generates less than 1% of the global CO . 2

Conclusions – 3 of 4 • CO2 is not a pollutant and generates a tiny warming effect. • CO2 is boosted from 400 ppm to 1,200 ppm for optimal growth, by commercial greenhouse growers. • The World Bank should not tell poorer countries to use unreliable power generation (windmills and solar). They should fund power plants and pollution reduction gear. © Lightfoot & Ratzer 2024

Conclusions – 4 of 4 • Poverty reduction is the top priority for the UN – not Climate Change! See the 17 Global Goals Sustainable Development • Countries should transition from fossil fuels to nuclear – ideally SMRs – Small Modular Reactors.

Comment on previous slide The “tiny warming” is about 1/100 °C, based on the enthalpy calculation. Climate is #13 on list of 17 UN Susttainable Development goals – move it to #17 and remove it from the list! For countries with coal, this should be used along with pollution reduction gear. Then move to gas and eventually SMRs. SMRs are built in a factory and transported in 2 to 4 large containers to the energy production site – maybe an existing power plant. Scaling up is done with multiple SMRs at a site.

Resources and Links • Lindzen, Richard – MIT, CO2 Coalition ICSF GWPF Talk Paper • Happer, Will – Princeton, CO2 Coalition ICSF GWPF Talk Paper • John Christy and Roy Spencer at UAH – Talk Talk ICSF • Judith Curry – Climate Etc. Talk • John Shanahan – allaboutenergy.net Search: Lightfoot Ratzer papers • Benny Peiser – GWPF Global Warming Policy Foundation ICSF Talk • Guus Berkhout – Clintel WCD – World Climate Declaration Talk • Alex Epstein – Fossil Future Talk © Lightfoot & Ratzer 2024

Comment on previous slide Most of the researchers in this slide have many papers, talks and slides to their credit. They are the “who ‘s who” of the skeptical climate movement. The ICSF is the Irish Climate Science Forum Most of these people have given a webinar there which is online, by year. The GWPF publishes a Newsletter daily and many booklets from these authors. The Curry interview is by Jordan Petersen - It is 90 minutes – but well balanced.

Exercise to introduce the Research Concept – 1 of 2

1.Use the online interactive psychrometric chart. Click on this link. 2.Find your local Temperature (°C) and Relative Humidity (%). Try Accuweather.com - with 3.5 million locations. 3.Put these numbers opposite “T dry” and “Rel Humid”, respectively. 4.Then click on the box: “Or input data for air properties” to insert a white/blue check-mark. 5.Scroll down to the green “Submit” button and click on it. © Lightfoot & Ratzer 2024

Exercise to introduce the Research Concept – 2 of 2

6. The chart to the right will show a green marker for the input values. 7. The humidity ratio is on the right vertical axis, and in the list to the left (third one down). 8. Multiply this number by 3.84 to get your local approximate molecular ratio of H2O to CO2. 9. You can compare your value to the other 240 values in Figure 2 and 3 of the paper. © Lightfoot & Ratzer 2024

Comment on previous slide This is a hands-on exercise for n easy way to understand our research methodology. Once you have done it – you will be surprised how easy it is. The Psychrometric chart is an atmospheric model of our moist air, based on over 200-years of research by Boyle, Pascal, Newton, Carrier and others. It uses the Ideal Gas Laws and the Laws of Thermodynamics. - https://www.flycarpet.net/en/PsyOnline

Output from our 240 data points

Comment on previous slide Once you have followed the instructions starting on slide 59 – you will get a single number which is the molecular ratio of water vapour molecules to carbon dioxide moolecules for the data you collected and entered into the Psychrometric chart. Place this output value in the chart on the left to see how you compare to other locations.