Revised, why all the fuss with CO2 and the Greenhouse effect?
Terigi Ciccone, 10-24-2024
ABSTRACT:
In this study, we set out facts and scientific principles consistent with established laws of physics, chemistry, and thermodynamics to state that greenhouse gases and the greenhouse effect do not measurably warm the Earth. The concept that it does is at best a myth. The absorption and re-emission of longwave infrared radiation from the Earth’s surface does not cause any measurable warming of the Earth. It also raises the concern that the UN IPCC and NASA/NOAA do not address all of the sources of heat that warm the Earth. Their wellpublished and promoted Earth Energy Budget needs serious revisions or to be discarded.
Part 1. CO2’s diminutive role in climate and climate change
Let’s start by asking the question. Why do NASA and the UN IPCC avoid water vapor in nearly all discussions concerning greenhouse gasses (GHGs), especially its thermodynamic effect? Here’s why, but first we recap the much-discussed CO2 and water vapor’s radiative effect.
Look at Figure 1 below, https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation?paperid=102353 The blue is the frequency range where water vapor absorbs the weak, longwave Infrared radiation (LWIR) emitted from the Earth’s surface in Figure 1 in the range from 1 to 30 um, https://pressbooks.online.ucf.edu/chemistryfundamentals/chapter/water-properties-2/. The red area shows the range of frequencies absorbed by CO2. So, CO2 must compete with water vapor even in the few frequencies where CO2 absorbs the LWIR photons.
Second, in the troposphere, water vapor is the greenhouse gas that dominates the air’s volume. On average CO2 makes up 0.042% of the atmosphere. But water vapor can make up to 4.5% of the atmosphere in the hot humid tropics, and 0.2% in the colder polar areas. Taking these two factors into consideration, Dr. S Fred Singer tells us that nature-made water vapor controls about 95% of the Greenhouse Effect (GHE) and total CO2 controls a miserly 3.32%, see Water Vapor Rules the Greenhouse System. As used in this discussion, GHE means the absorption and re-emissions of GHGs with no inference that it causes any measurable warming.
But before concluding our reply, let’s quickly review the entire CO2 and atmospheric story. We start by looking at the infamous NASA/NOAA/UN IPCC EEB (Earth Energy Budget) in Figure 2 below and do some quick arithmetic. This will allow us to measure and answer the critical question: how much of the Sun’s energy/power arriving on Earth must go through greenhouse gases (GHGs) before it exits back to space and still keep the Earth in a warm and reasonably stable climate?
1. The Earth receives from the Sun 340.4 watts/M2 (W), warming the Earth on average daily.
2. Immediately, we are told that 77+22.9=99.9 W is reflected into space, and an additional 0.6 W is “net absorbed” by plants. We no longer need to consider this total of 100.5 W in our GHG/GHE calculations.
3. We also see that 77.1 W is absorbed by the atmosphere. As the air cools this will eventually radiate to space with frequencies that are not absorbable by CO2/GHGs. So, 100.5 W from step 2 +77.1 W from the air =177.6 W, we no longer need to be concerned with.
4. That leaves 162.7 W absorbed by the Earth’s surface and must be released to space through the atmosphere. We ignore the theorized 340.3 W called “Back Radiation” since its existence and value has never been validated by observations, measurements, or scientific testing.
5. Then we see that thermals/conduction releases 18.4 W of the 162.7 W, to the atmosphere. Leaving 144.3 W that needs to be released by the surface through the air.
6. We then see 86.4 W is released by latent heat of evaporation, which, like thermals, rises and warms the atmosphere. Some days later, it is released into space at LWIR frequencies that are not absorbable by GHGs. So, the surface is left with 144.3-86.4=57.9 W from the surface that must go through the atmosphere.
7. We then note that 40.1 W (atmospheric window) of energy is released by the surface as LWIR radiation but at frequencies that are not absorbable by any GHGs. So, 57.9-40.1=leaves 17.8 W of energy left of surface radiation that must go through the GHGs. Let’s state this another way: of the 162.7 W absorbed by the Earth’s surface, from the sun only 10.9% (17.8/162.7) of the total solar energy needs to go through the GHGs.
7.a By contrast 53.1% of the energy absorbed by the surface (86.4/162.7 W) is used by the oceans to “boil” water into water vapor. This heat rises in the air, and combines/mixes with the heat of thermals, carrying upward a total of 104.8 W (86.4 + 18.4) leaving the surface as physical heat and warming the air. Said differently, 64.4% of the 162.7 W absorbed is used to warm the troposphere, as we see in the Temperature Lapse Rate.
8. Now look again at Figure 1 and note that the much more abundant water vapor competes with CO2 at almost every wavelength (or frequency.) In his above-referenced article, Dr. S Fred Singer estimates that nature-made water vapor will capture about 95% of this absorbable radiation. So, 17.8 W X .95=16.9 W is absorbed by water vapor. So, that leaves 17.8 -16.9 = 0.9 W that must radiate through the non-water vapor GHGs before it can exit to space. According to Singer, human-made CO2 absorbs 0.117%. So, 0.00117x 17.8 W = 0.02 W is captured by human-made CO2, Water Vapor Rules the Greenhouse System – see Table 4. a.
1
8.a Then, we know that after absorption, a CO2 molecule will release the energy of the photon of the same radiant energy level but not at the same frequency distribution. Water vapor will again compete with CO2, which will capture the vast amounts of these re-emitted photons. But when water vapor releases its photons, it’s released across the broader spectrum of WV frequencies, and it is no longer absorbable by CO2.
8.b This exposes another deception by NASA and the UN IPCC that photons are absorbed by CO2 hundreds or thousands of times before they exit into space. So, the GHE of CO2 is almost saturated and disappears within the first meter or so of altitude.
9. Let’s recap Part 1.
Of the total 340.4 watts/M2 of solar energy that arrives on Earth’s surface, humancaused CO2 emissions account for 0.02 W, or 0.006% of the greenhouse effect.
Additionally, our DC politicians want to spend $ trillions to reduce the CO2 greenhouse effect from 0.02 W to NET-ZERO.
Part 2. Understanding photons, absorption, re-emission, and energy transfer.
What is a photon?
Knowing that I’m an expert in answering stupid questions, a friend asked, “What’s this nonsense about packaging a photon?” I had the night to think about it and had no immediate answer. I live in Southern Florida and each morning I wake up and have my coffee in the lanai before sunrise. I walked out on the bricks barefoot, and they still felt warm from the day before. I then felt the heat also radiating from the bricks on my body and face and asked myself what this radiation looked like. As I finished my coffee I had a dumb answer. The bricks were radiating an endless/dense flood of a broad spectrum of LWIR continuous radiation, infinitely close to each other but not interfering or interacting with each other. I then visualized a single CO2 molecule above the bricks and moving across the air at some translational speed. Then visualized that CO2 absorbs some of that radiation of various frequencies by resonance. Within some billionth, or trillionth of a second, it had absorbed enough LWIR energy to kick the molecule’s covalent electrons to their next energy levels. I also found a picture of what that absorbed energy might look like, see Figure 3 below 1. I realized that the CO2 molecule had “quantized” a little blob of a definite amount of radiation. Sorry, Dr. Feynman, there are times when energy does come in little blobs. So, in Figure 3 we see a typical photon absorbable by a CO2 molecule and its spectrum of wavelengths. It carries an amount of E-P (Einstein-Plank) energy equal to the Plank constant times the frequency. So,
the absorption is by resonance, so it does not alter the temperature or the kinetic state of the CO2
molecule (i.e. adds no translational velocity to the absorbing CO2 molecule.) The increased electromagnetic energy is stored in the CO2 molecular and atomic bonds as increased amplitudes of vibrations as shown in Figure 42, which shows one of these molecular bonds. The length of the bond before the absorption is represented by the black arrow. Upon absorption, the bond length increases to the blue arrow, and there is an increase in the thermal (EM) energy of the oscillations. The absorbed energy is insufficient to reach the energy threshold (green arrow) to break the bond. Then, within a trillionth-billionth-millionth of a second one of two things will happen to this energized CO2 molecule.
2 https://whyclimatechanges.com/pdf/Papers/Ward2016ThermalEnergy160223.pdf , Figure 1.
, Figure 1
A. The CO2 molecule will collide with something, especially in the dense few meters of the atmosphere. This might be another air molecule (most probably nitrogen or oxygen) or a wall and some portion of the molecule’s kinetic energy of translational velocity (1/2 the mass times the velocity squared) is converted into physical-sensible heat and the temperature of the bumped molecules increases. Upon the collision, the energized CO2 molecule lose the quantized E-P energy as the one absorbed in Figure 3. Or,
B. The energized CO2 molecule will spontaneously re-emit a new photon, equal to the E-P energy of the absorption but with a slightly different distributions than shown in Figure 3, and the molecular bond returns to the resting state. In this scenario, the absorption and re-emission generate Zero Heat.
C. In the dense lower atmosphere, especially in the first meter, option A is most likely to happen by orders of magnitude. Then with increasing altitude option B increases as a function of reduced air density as demonstrated by the lapse rate in the troposphere.
D. The initial photon may be absorbed and re-emitted hundreds, thousands of times by CO2, water vapor, or any other resonant GHG before it can exit into space. But since the photons travel at the speed of light, and the absorption-remission times are so fast the total time from first absorption to its exit to space is a small fraction of a milli second. So, the capture-hold time is trivial. For details see the article https://www.researchgate.net/publication/346967791_Delay_Time_for_Terrestrial_Infr aRed_Radiation_to_escape_Earth's_Atmosphere-2020b.
E. The re-emitted photon has a frequency distribution across the spectrum of the absorbing GHG. So, for example, if the CO2-re-emitted photon is absorbed by water vapor, the WV’s re-emitted photon is re-emitted across the broader spectrum of the WV frequencies, and it is no longer absorbable by a CO2 molecule. Ref Figure 4.8, What Really Causes Global Warming, by Peter L Ward.
The few downward welling photons that reach the surface cannot warm the surface. Let’s assume that the Earth’s surface emits photons based on a temperature of 15oC. The temperature of the CO2, water vapor, and all GHGs are emitted at temperatures lower than 15oC as measured by the air temperature lapse rates. As a general principle, radiation emitted by a 50oC stove may warm our hands from 32oC to 35oC, but the radiation from our 35oC hands cannot warm the stove above its 50CC temperature. Ref https://whyclimatechanges.com/pdf/Papers/Ward2016ThermalEnergy160223.pdf
Part 3. Thermodynamics and the “Missing Heat.”
The IPCC and NASA wrongly assume that the Sun is the only source of heat on Earth in their EEB. Some of the ignored sources of surface heat include:
Animal and plant respiration.
Animal digestion, warming their bodies and the air.
Plant/animal decomposition, and fermentation of organic materials as they rot and decompose. They are also a significant natural source of CO2 and methane.
Geologic heating as the heat is transported from the Earth’s core to the surface. Some of it is conducted to the surface, and the air in slow-measurable amounts. But all too often volcanic activities increase, heating the air and mostly heating the oceans. There are an estimated 3-4 million volcanic/vents/heat sources on Earth https://www.sciencedirect.com/book/9780123859389/the-encyclopedia-of-volcanoes. An estimated 80% of all volcanoes/geologic heat sources and 85% of the eruptions and heat sources from vents, fissures, etc., occur unseen, and unaccounted for at the ocean bottoms where the crust is the thinnest. Mind you, the temperature of this enormous mass of molten metal of the outer core makes up about 1/3 of the mass of the Earth is about the same as the temperature of the Sun's surface (10,000 F.) In addition, recent findings also connect the robust El Nino/La Nina warming are caused by geologic/volcanic activities. See http://www.plateclimatology.com/why-el-nio-and-lania-are-one-continuous-geological-event/ and 7
http://www.plateclimatology.com/discovery-of-massive-volcanic-co2-emissions-putsdamper-on-global-warming-theory
Gravity/adiabatic auto-compression by the Earth’s gravity as it relentlessly accelerates the atmospheric gases resulting in a near-infinite number of collisions of the air molecules and establishing the Earth’s temperature lapse rates, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323106609_Molar_Mass_Version_of_the_Id eal_Gas_Law_Points_to_a_Very_Low_Climate_Sensitivity
Volcanic eruptions of land and especially submarine basaltic volcanoes can be a significant cause of short-term rapid weather and climate change along with massive releases of CO2 i.e. the recent Tonga Hunga eruptions. Ref Volcanic Eruptions and Extreme Weather - Wyss Yim, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6PlQh3D6X54
Ozone depletion by human-made CFCs. The vast majority of the CFC’s released into the atmosphere before the 1990 Montreal Accord are still in the atmosphere. They remain there for many decades, and one molecule of chlorine can destroy 100,000 molecules of ozone gas. But basaltic effusive volcanic eruptions, like we see in Iceland and Hawaii, release nature-made chlorine and bromine gases that deplete the ozone. This ozone depletion allows more of the Sun’s powerful UV rays to reach the surface and warm the air, lands and oceans. See the book What Really Causes Global Warming, Chapter 6, by Peter L Ward.
These unaccounted heat sources contribute to the Earth’s surface and air temperatures. Do not ignore the Ideal Gas Law, PV=nRT, as it appears it likely explains most of the so-called “33 C of the missing heat” that the IPCC/NASA exclusively attributes to the GHGs and greenhouse effect and keeps the Earth at a livable temperatures.
CONCLUSIONS.
1. The term “Greenhouse Gas” is a misnomer. A more appropriate term for these gases is Radiatively Active Gases (RAGs) because they absorb and immediately re-emit LWIR radiation but don’t increase any measurable temperatures in the process of absorption or re-emissions.
2. The term “Greenhouse Effect” is also a misnomer. Real greenhouses retain the Sun’s warming because they have glass walls and glass roofs that prevent convection heat, latent heat, and radiation from escaping to the atmosphere. The imaginary-greenhouse has no such barriers, and the convection, latent heat and radiation quickly escapes to the atmosphere and to space.
3. The so-called CO2 capture and hold time is extremely small, from the first absorption by a CO2 molecule until the photon exits to space is less than 6/1,000 of a second. Whereas water vapor may take several days before its latent heat is released to space when it condenses to liquid water.
4. There are other sources of heat that warm the Earth, besides the sun, especially random volcanic/geologic event and gravity that seem to provide the 33OC of “missing heat” that the IPCC and NASA attribute exclusively the GHGs and the GHE.
5. Scientists Nikolov and Zeller in their paper New Insights on the Physical Nature of the Atmospheric Greenhouse Effect Deduced from an Empirical Planetary Temperature Model (omicsonline.org) and video Drivers of Earth's Paleoclimate: A New Paradigm of Understanding (youtube.com) argue that even the missing NASA heat of 33 C heat is off by at least a factor of two.
6. The Science of weather, climate, and climate change are far from settled, we have barely scratched the surface.
Terigi Ciccone, 45 years’ experience in gas turbine engineering, science enthusiast, artist, Ex-Sierra Club, Author on climate change, Bio- https://independent.academia.edu/Tericiccone