Replies to Estimated Impact of Climate Processes
Gerald Ratzer - 25
th August 2024
On the 22nd August 2024, Clintel distributed my short research note to its 1940 members. During the last few days there have been considerable replies – many of them supportive. Asample of some is below. This text is to reply to the ones where I think there is a problem that can be answered.
However, most people did not comment or address the main idea behind the note as to how to select between five possible answers. Namely, there are no references to the table on Page 6 - which is the summary of the Conclusions.
Solution Number Description Approximate Estimate of surface warming in °C
1 Greenhouse Effect (GHE) 1
2 & 3 Volcanoes and El Nino (ENSO) 2 to 3
4 Clouds -1
5 Gravity and air compression 30 Total ~33°C
The main point of the note was to show five different possible sources of surface warming of the Earth, and how they rank among each other. Solution 5 is the clear winner by an order of magnitude.
Just to clarify and expand on this solution – here are the steps to an ongoing process.
1. Radiation from the Sun (mainly visible light) pierces the Earth’s Atmosphere. On the way through the atmosphere, some of the radiation may be reflected out to space or absorbed (but typically not by the Greenhouse gases – GHGs).
2. When the radiation hits the Earth’s surface much of the energy is absorbed, but some is reflected upwards. The oceans cover 70% of the Earth’s surface and the interaction with the oceans in the Tropics is the important starting point of the process being considered.
3. The oceans are indeed warmed by the Sun’s rays, but some 25% of the incoming radiation is used up evaporating seawater to form water vapor.
Clintel Replies 1 25th August 2024
The transition from water to water vapor needs the energy to overcome the “latent heat of evaporation”, which is a requirement for the phase change from liquid to vapor. This is a large number of about 2256 kJ/kg.
4. Next, the warm tropical ocean water starts a convection process, which raises all the gases (including water vapor) up in the air. Agood example of this process is Cumulonimbus clouds which can develop quite rapidly – in about an hour. These clouds develop over the ocean and can rise as high as the Tropopause – 10 to 12 kilometres high. As the clouds rise in the air all the gas molecules gain potential energy. Also called a thunderhead, and it is truly impressive to see the “boiling and bubbling” of these types of clouds, in real-time. The main location of these columns of convective air will move with the location of the Sun. In general, they are found mainly in the Tropics and form in the local afternoons. Remember the “Sun never sets on the Tropics” by definition!
5. The rising clouds of water droplets cool down and may well produce rain. This is where gravity takes over as the main force. Gravity acts on all molecules in the air and compresses the air. The term used in this phase is Lapse Rate – namely how much warming or cooling there is, based on the change of elevation above the surface. During the compression phase air molecules will increase in temperature by 9.8°C/km. This compression causes a change of the molecules’ potential energy into kinetic energy, which in turn is changed to heat. The Laws of Thermodynamics say that energy cannot be destroyed but can be converted into other forms.
6. The process described above is also part of the development of Hadley Cells. They are also known as Hadley circulation, a large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns that occur in the Tropics. They play a crucial role in transporting heat from the equator to the subtropics.
The important point of this process – called a Thermal Model by David Siegel, is that it is ongoing (24 x 7). I like the WVCG abbreviation (Water VaporConvection-Gravity) to stress that the process involves the transition from the ocean to water vapor, the upward convection process, followed by gravity taking over for the downward compression. This is an ongoing process and applies to all planetary bodies with an atmosphere.
About the “Perpetuum Mobile” comment – I agree that this is theoretically impossible. That said, I think it is a matter of time and scale. Our Sun started shining some 4.6 billion years ago. Planet Earth is thought to have started life about 4.4 billion years ago – but it had to cool down to have a surface and for the oceans to form (not evaporate water immediately). At this time there was also gravity as a strong force. So, we have two entities that have been around for over 4 billion years and at present there does not look like any reason for their demise. The Sun is in the “Main Sequence” of stars, in the middle of its lifespan and is expected to last another 4 to 5 billion years. Given this data and the time length of human civilization, I do not think we need to concern ourselves about either the Sun or Gravity stopping any time soon. They may not be perpetual – but are pretty close to that.
Arriving this last week, were comments from Robert Ian Holmes whose 2018 paper was recommended for reading. His reply included links to his two papers –2018 and 2020: -
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/338393205_On_the_Apparent_Relationship_Be tween_Total_Solar_Irradiance_and_the_Atmospheric_Temperature_at_1_Bar_on_Three_Ter restrial-type_Bodies
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/324599511_Thermal_Enhancement_on_Planet ary_Bodies_and_the_Relevance_of_the_Molar_Mass_Version_of_the_Ideal_Gas_Law_to_t he_Null_Hypothesis_of_Climate_Change
Also, David Siegel sent in links to his podcast with Tom Nelson. The recent one is 55 minutes long and is recommended viewing. Links are below.
Thank you for your feedback.
Gerald Ratzer Professor Emeritus McGill, Montreal
Selection of Replies
Kees Le Pair - So, I read it with special interest.
I like your analysis of the "missing 33 C" and find it fairly convincing.
Chris De Havilland - Thanks for your contribution.
I saw you mention Perplexity so felt I should respond briefly as I've been using it fairly often.
Ferdinand Engelbeen. . . the current new paper uses the gravity as the "main cause" of the "missing 33°C warming" of the earth, which is equal to finding a new perpetuum mobile and thus physically impossible.
Yes, I agree that the "Perpetuum Mobile" argument is sheer nonsense; yet I get it all the time from people who think they have something.
Terigi Ciccone –
Gravity, unlike your bicycle pump, never stops pumping- never stops pushing down- never stops accelerating the air molecules downward. And the closer to the surface the denser the air molecules thus the greater the kinetic energy and the more and more powerful collisions. The result is seen as the lapse rates.
WR: More complete: The lapse rate is the result of all processes warming and cooling the atmosphere. Apart from outward radiation influenced by greenhouse gases and clouds, the result of convection of latent and sensible heat plays a large, if not dominant role.
David Siegel -
My first presentation to Tom Nelson's podcast was last year, about the politics: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NWhWuv7MMDU
My recent presentation with Tom on how to think about climate science is out now, a 55-minute video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1Z2G5QOhFU